《全球磷肥展望》PPT课件

GlobalPhosphateOutlook2008-2009全球磷肥展望,MichelPrudhommeIFAF,Non-for-profitorganizationrepresentingtheglobalfertilizerindustryandrelatedservices.非营利组织，代表全球肥料工业及相关服务530membercompaniesin87countries.有530个会员单位，来自于87个国家IFAsmandate:IFA的使命Promotethesustainableandresponsibleproductionoffertilizers.促进可持续的和负责任的肥料生产Fosteranopenbusinessandtradeenvironment.培育开放的商业和贸易环境Supportthedevelopmentofasustainableandefficientuseofplantnutrients.支持可持续的和高效的利用作物养分的开发,InternationalFertilizerIndustryAssociation国际肥料工业协会,1-WorldAgricultureSituation世界农业形势2-FertilizerandFertilizerPhosphateDemand肥料及肥料磷酸盐的需求3-PhosphateRockandPhosphoricAcidOutlook磷矿和磷酸市场展望4ProcessedPhosphatesOutlook精细磷化工市场展望,Content内容,FertilizerDemandDrivers推动肥料需求的因素,Cropsupplyanddemandprojections粮食供求预测Foodpricesdrivers粮食价格Increasingpopulation,globaleconomicgrowth,risingmeatconsumptionpercapita人口增长、全球经济增长、人均肉食消费的提高Escalatingcrudeoilprice,expansionofbiofuelproduction石油价格上涨，生物燃料生产的扩张Declininggraininventories谷物库存的降低Risingfarmproductioncost种植成本的升高Weatherfactors气候因素Nationaltradepolicies各国贸易政策的调整,Sources:IFA,derivedfromERS-USDA,July2008,WorldCerealProductionandUtilization全球谷物生产和消费趋势,Source:FAO,July2008,Billiontonnes,WorldCerealStocks全球谷物库存,Source:FAO,July2008,Milliontonnes,WorldFertilizerDemand20052012全球肥料需求,Milliontonnesnutrients,Source:IFA,2008,+2.6%p.a.over2007,+2.9%p.a.over2007,N,P2O5,K2O,WorldFertilizerShort-TermConsumption全球肥料短期消费预测,Source:IFA,2008,WorldPhosphateFertilizerDemand全球磷肥需求,MtP2O5,+5.0%,+3.1%,+1.6%,+4.5%,42.1,40.8,40.2,38.5,36.6,Source:IFA,2008,PhosphateNutrientRegionalDemand分地区磷肥需求2007to2009,Source:IFA,2008,5MtP2O5,2007,2009,+3%,+2%,+4%,+6%,+8%,WorldPhosphateRockCapability全球磷矿石产能,Mtproduct,Source:IFA,2008,233,189,194,202,214,242,PhosphateRockConcentrates:AverageGradeExcludingChina磷矿石选矿后的平均P2O5含量变化（不含中国）,Source:IFA,2008,Half-YearPhosphateRockProductionandTrade,Mtrock,BasedonIFAQuarterlySample磷矿石生产及贸易,Source:IFA,2008,Half-YearPhosphoricAcidProductionandTrade,MtP2O5,Source:IFA,2008,BasedonIFAQuarterlySample磷酸生产及贸易,MainPhosphoricAcidCapacityDevelopments主要磷酸产能变化,Source:IFA,2008,KtP2O5,Morocco,WorldPhosphoricAcidDemand全球磷酸需求,Source:IFA,2008,MtP2O5,FertilizeracidP2O5Demand+2.9%p.a.over2007,IndustrialacidP2O5Demand+3.1%p.a.over2007,39.0,37.7,36.7,34.4,31.7,工业用,肥料用,GlobalPhosphoricAcidSupply/Demand全球磷酸供/需,Source:IFA,2008,MtP2O5,Demand,Supply,PotentialSurplus,WorldProcessedPhosphatesProduction,MtP2O5,Source:IFA,2008,BasedonIFAQuarterlySample全球主要工艺磷肥产量,WorldProcessedPhosphatesTrade,MtP2O5,Source:IFA,2008,BasedonIFAQuarterlySample全球工艺磷肥贸易,MtP2O5,MajorMAP/DAPImporters/Exporters,Source:IFA,2008,BasedonIFAQuarterlySample主要MAP/DAP进口/出口国,GlobalPhosphateCapacityAdditions全球磷肥产能变化,MtP2O5,Source:IFA,2008,WorldDAP:Supply/Demand全球DAP供/需,Source:IFA,2008,PhosphateMarketOutlook磷肥市场展望,2008和2009年，全球肥料需求相对坚挺,预计年均增长约3%，全球磷肥需求预计增长2.6%,主要是高浓度磷肥的增长.增长主要来自于几个国家，如巴西、印度、美国，也许还有中国.2008年全球各磷肥产品品种的生产将会表现不同,贸易量将低于预测.相对于DAP较强劲的进口需求,尤其是印度的进口，全球磷酸、MAP，还有TSP的贸易量预计会下降.中国2008年的出口政策已经导致减少了中国MAP和DAP向国际市场的有效输出.2008年和2009年预计中国以外的MAP-DAP的供应增长能力有限。新的商品MAP-DAP的增加将仅来自于摩洛哥和墨西哥.全球磷肥市场在2008年上半年非常吃紧，预计下半年不会有太大的好转.即便不考虑2009年一些磷肥需求的恢复,仅就现在的供求平衡预测明年的供求仍将会进一步吃紧.,PhosphateMarketOutlook,Globalfertilizerdemandwasprojectedtoberelativelyfirmin2008and2009,growingatanaverageannualrateof3%.Worldphosphatefertilizerdemandwasforecasttoexpandatanannualrateof2.6%over2007,withmuchofthegrowthtobemetwithhigh-analysisphosphatefertilizers.Afewcountries,suchasBrazil,India,theUnitedStates,andpossiblyChina,willcontributemosttothisexpansion.Globalproductionofphosphateproductswillshowmixedresultsin2008,whiletradevolumewouldbebelowexpectations.WorldtradeofphosphoricacidandMAP,andtosomeextentTSP,isprojectedtodecline,comparedwithafirmimportdemandforDAP,especiallyintoIndia.ThefertilizerexportpolicyofChinain2008hasreducedtheavailabilityofMAPandDAPininternationalmarkets.LimitedMAP-DAPcapacityexpansions,outsideChina,areforeseenduring2008and2009.NewmerchantcapacitywillonlyemergeinMoroccoandMexico.Theglobalphosphatemarketw