《报表分析切入点》PPT课件.pptVIP

2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,1,厦门国家会计学院,报表分析新思维(之一)报表分析的逻辑切入点黄世忠Ph.DCPA.MBA联系电话:0592-257777813906016965电子邮件:hsz单位邮址:,2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,2,阐述报表分析的逻辑切入点基于M公司与GFC公司的案例分析案例分析德隆的垮台与财务报表的预警信号中石油的经营记录与业绩评价移动电信的辉煌业绩与潜在风险本讲旨在阐明报表分析的常见误区，把握报表分析的逻辑体系,研讨要点与目的,2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,3,三大核心问题问题1M公司与GFC公司孰优孰劣？孰强孰弱？问题2M公司与GFC公司股票市值的反差原因何在？问题3如何评价M公司与GFC公司的业绩？,考倒全世界顶级MBA的难题,2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,4,经营规模-雇员人数,2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,5,经营规模-资产总额,2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,6,经营规模销售收入,2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,7,经营规模-CFFOA,2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,8,股票市值(Capitalization),2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,9,财务实力净资产,2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,10,经营绩效净利润,2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,11,财务数据：GFCv.sM(2002),新经济与旧经济的反差,2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,12,1.科学管理(时间和动作研究)2.成本核算和差异分析3.商业研究实验室(科学产业化)(GE)4.(ROISE-911Ford:NI-14;SE-187,2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,27,金融危机的若干反思,反思5：并购魔咒为何难破？100年五次并购浪潮表明的收购兼并以失败告终危机中倒闭或陷入困境的许多金融机构也与前几年无节制的并购相关(e.g.Wachovia,RBS,BAC,HSBC)Wachovia于2005年5月以250亿美元收购金西金融集团(美国第二大抵押贷款银行)RBS于2007年10月以710亿英镑收购荷兰银行BAC于2008年9月合并美林,后者隐瞒了超过300亿美元的损失,导致BAC陷入困境HSBC前几年在美国的大肆兼并,是其业绩滑坡的最主要原因,2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,28,并购失败的三大主因,尽职调查(DDS)市场层面的尽职调查法律层面的尽职调查财务方面的尽职调查并购估值(Valuation)并购溢价形成沉重的财务负担并后整合(Integration)重收购，轻整合,RichardRoll(1986)HubrisHypothesisAOLvs.TWLenovovs.IBM,TodayChinaLion今日中国之狮TomorrowCreativeLife明日创新生活,2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,29,投资决策的性质和分析重心,投资决策,是否足以施加重大影响或加以控制,财务性投资,战略性投资,对方,自己,盈利质量,资产质量,现金流量,文化整合,管理整合,产品整合,否,是,2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,30,毛利率(GrossProfitMargin),2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,31,M公司的成本费用结构,2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,32,R3.34%;3.47%,2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,33,资产质量,资产结构,现金含量,退出风险,经营风险,错配风险,潜在损失,资产质量分析方法,技术风险,财务弹性,2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,34,何为风险?Riskisuncertainty风险的类别经济风险(EconomicRisk)环境风险(经济条件、政治及社会环境）市场风险（市场结构、企业竞争优势）经营风险（OperationalRisk)固定成本与变动成本比例财务风险（FinancialRisk)资本结构与金融市场利率,营业风险BusinessRisk,利润易变性ProfitVolatility,传导,传导,成本结构决定风险传导和放大效应,2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,35,成本性态分析,2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,36,+5%+14%+18%-5%-14%-18%经济风险经营风险营业风险财务风险,经济状况政治社会环境,销售收入,息税前利润,税后利润,市场结构竞争优势,风险的传导与放大,2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,37,XYZ公司风险评估测算表,风险传导放大效应,2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,38,资产质量(QualityofAssets)(2001),2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,39,资产质量(QualityofAssets)(2002),2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,40,资产质量(QualityofAssets)(2003),2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,41,资产质量(QualityofAssets)(2004),2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,42,资产质量(QualityofAssets)(2005),2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,43,资产质量(QualityofAssets)(2008),2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,44,资产负债表的缺陷,下列对价值创造和竞争力至关重要的要素,因不符合财务会计的确认、计量和报告标准,没有在资产负债表上得到反映:,人力资源,品牌资源,研究开发,客户关系,劳资关系,组织结构,内部控制,企业文化,2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,45,如何解释市净率?,2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,46,品牌价值(BrandZ100-2009),2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,47,被忽略的“软资产”,2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,48,现金流量,经营现金流量,自由现金流量,“造血”功能,自由裁量,现金流量分析方法,自由现金流量的定义企业在维持现有经营规模的前提下,管理当局可以自由处置的现金流量,2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,49,广义的自由现金流量FCF=经营性现金流量-更新固定资产的现金流出用于评估还本付息和股利支付的能力狭义的自由现金流量FCF=经营性现金流量-更新FA现金流出-现金股利用于评估企业的财务弹性财务弹性包括存量和流量两个部分财务弹性是企业利用市场机遇和应对市场逆境的能力用于评估企业依靠内部现金资源谋求发展的能力,CFFOAvs.FreeCashFlow,2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,50,现金流量趋势:G,2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,51,2005.12.13,Cut30,000jobsClose9facilitiesBy2008(2005.11.21)Share$19.85(2005.12.20)Lowestin23years,GM-不断恶化的信用等级,2008.12.4CCC+-CC,2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,52,GMvs.Toyota,2010.12.24GM:522TM:1339,2008销量GM:835万辆TM:897万辆,2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,53,美国汽车业首当其冲,2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,54,美国汽车行业挣扎在死亡线上,U.S.autosalesinOctoberplunged31%toabout850,000vehicles,theworstmonthinthepostWorld-WarIIera.Autosalesdeclined36%,37%and41%respectivelyinDec.2008,Jan.andFeb.2009,Oct.45%Nov.41%Dec.31%Jan.49%Feb.53%,Oct.35%Nov.47%Dec.53%Jan.55%Feb.44%,Dec.31%Jan.31%Feb.38%,Oct.34%Nov.31%Dec.32%Jan.40%Feb48%,Dec.35%Jan.30%Feb.38%,Dec.37%Jan.34%Feb.37%,2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,55,汽车销售萎靡不振,Autosalesfell37%,34%,34%28%,and12%fromMarchtoAugustin21thconsecutivemonthsdecline.SalesinAugustincreased1%,-45%-33%-30%-34%-19%-20%,-39%-42%-41%-32%-11%+6%,-39%-48%-47%-42%-9%-15%,-40%-32%-24%-11%+2%+17%,-35%-25%-42%-30%-17%+10%,2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,56,GM-不堪重负的医疗与退休债务,UAWWorkersHourlyPayPackage:$29basepay$26benefits$16retirees$71total按每天8小时,260天工作日计,每个工人年收入$147,680折合约101万元,2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,57,GAP:$2,300,GAP:$1,972,医疗及退休费用对制造成本的影响,2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,58,现金流量趋势:F(69vs.63),2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,59,现金流量趋势:C(DAI),2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,60,现金流量趋势:M,2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,61,Microsoft:股票期权的妙用,IfyouworkforMicrosoft,Microsoftdoesnotpayyou,youhavetopayMicrosoft,2003-2009183.48,2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,62,市场成长性,市场占有率,高,低,高,BytheBostonConsultingGroupin1968,波士顿矩阵(TheBostonMatrix),2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,63,Stars(现金明星)PLC处于高速成长阶段，市场占有率很高且仍呈上升趋势销售收入和现金流量有很高的增长潜力收入增长迅速，获利丰厚，但当前现金流量不很充裕，甚至颇为紧张,波士顿矩阵(TheBostonMatrix),2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,64,CashCows(现金奶牛)市场占有率很高PLC处于成熟阶段产品维持成本较低现金性收入很高经营性现金流量十分充裕,波士顿矩阵(TheBostonMatrix),2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,65,Dogs(现金瘦狗)PLC处于衰退阶段市场占有率很低或不断下降经营性现金流量入不敷出产品需要大量维持支出,Isyourproductstartingtoembarrassyourcompany?,波士顿矩阵(TheBostonMatrix),2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,66,ProblemChild(问题小孩)PLC处于高速成长阶段，但市场占有率很低产品维持需要大量资金支出经营性现金流量可能出现负数未来潜力充满不确定性,Problemchildrenworthspendinggoodmoneyon?,波士顿矩阵(TheBostonMatrix),2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,67,现金盈余,现金短缺,MVA0EVA0,MVA0EVA0价值创造EVA0价值毁损,EVA=NOPATICxWACCNOPAT=税后经营利润IC=投入资本(TA-AP)WAAC=加权资本成本,EVA=税后利润-(年末净资产-当年税后利润)x资本成本率,2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,108,EVAvs.NI-中石油,2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,109,资本成本导致经营业绩锐减,EVAvs.NI中石化(2002),2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,110,ValueCreation,ValueDestruction,EVAvs.NI四川长虹(2002),2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,111,上市公司10大价值创造者(非金融),2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,112,上市公司10大价值毁损者(非金融),2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,113,金融类上市公司价值创造情况,2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,114,中国电信过去五年价值创造情况,2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,115,中国电信过去五年价值创造情况,2020/5/17,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,116,SASAC关于EVA的最新规定,定义经济增加值是指企业税后营业利润减去资本成本后的余额计算公式经济增加值=税后净营业利润-资本成本经济增加值=税后净营业利润-调整后资本平均资本成本率税后净营业利润=净利润+(利息支出+研究开发费用调整项-非经营性收益调整项