国际贸易International Trade.ppt

国际贸易InternationalTrade,Dr.MiaojieYuCCERPekingUniversity,Copyright2006PearsonAddison-Wesley.Allrightsreserved.,联系信息ContactInformation,Instructor教师:余淼杰博士Office办公室:郎润园621OfficeHours答疑时间:周一15:30-16:30Email:mjyuTelephone:6275-3109Fax:6275-1475CourseWeb:,0d58b4b8符皇,OutlineoftheTalk,IntegrationofTradeDisintegrationofProductionChinasCurrentTradeSituationSino-U.S.TradeRelationshipTraditionalTradeTheoryCurrentResearchTopicsQScenario1:CountryA=100;countryB=25,countryC=25Scenario2:CountryA=50;countryB=50,countryC=50Maximumexportsaredifferent.,DisintegrationofProduction,Disintegrationofproductionitselfleadstomoretradedue,inlargepart,tothecalculationmethod.OutsourcingBarbiedollstory(Tempest,1996)Sellforabout$10intheU.S.MadeinMainlandChina,butexportfromHongKongfor$265centscovermaterialscost,35centspayforChineselabor.Theremaining1$fortransportationinChinaTheremaining7$fortransportation,marketing,wholesalingandretailing.$1fortheMattel.,Outsourcing,Firstmeasurement:tradeiscategorizedbytheend-user.TheU.S.tradeshiftsawayfromagricultureandrawmaterials,andtowardsmanufacturedgoodsintheU.S.trade.ProcessedmanufacturedgoodsplayanincreasingimportantroleinU.S.trade.Outsourcingisimportant!U.S.firmshavebeensubstitutingawayfromtheseprocessingactivitiesathome.,Outsourcingonthevalue-chain,Anothermeasurement:importedintermediategoods,TheWorldisFlat,Verticalspecification:anothernameofOutsourcingU.S.hasadoublingoftheshareofimportedinputsbetween1975and1995forallmanufacturing.TheU.K.showsanespeciallylargeabsoluteincreaseinforeignoutsourcing.,ChinasCurrentTradePerformance,TradeGrowthTradeLiberalizationAccedetotheWTOTradePatternIncreaseoftheinwardFDI,CCER,Dr.MiaojieYu,GATT/WTOMembers,CCER,Dr.MiaojieYu,TradeOpenness,Chinabecamethe143rdmemberoftheGATT/WTOChinakeepsalargetradesurplus.Tradeopennessis$2,170billion,whichismorethan63%ofcurrentGDPin2007ThethirdlargestoneintheworldCurrentExportis$969billionandimportis$792billion.Sotradesurplusis$177billionin2006.,CCER,Dr.MiaojieYu,DramaticIncreaseinOpenness,CCER,Dr.MiaojieYu,TradeOpenness,ChinasCurrentTradeSituation,Currenttradeopennessisaround64%ofGDP.Chinasshareinworldtradehasgrownsteadilysince1979.,ChinasTrade,Chinahasincreaseditspenetrationintorichcountriesmarket.,ChinasTrade,ChinasTrade,Simultaneously,italsobecomesamoreimportantexportdestination.,ChinasTrade,ChinasroleinAsianRegionalTrade,ChinaisnowamongthemostimportantexportdestinationsforotherAsianeconomies,StrongExportPotentialForwardinChina,Chinasintegrationwiththeworldeconomysofarisnotunprecedentedineitheritsscopeorspeed.ComparedtoJapan,Korea,andotherNIEsintheirfastdevelopmentperiod,Chinasexportshavegrownataslowerratethantheirs.ThissuggeststhatChinacouldmaintainrelativelyhighstrongexportgrowthforyearstocome.,CompositionofTrade,Diversifyfromaninitialheavyrelianceontextileandotherlightmanufacturing.Intheearly1990s,exportsprofilesrankasfollows:lightmanufacturing,textile,machineryandtransport(smallelectronics).Today,Chinaexportsmoresophisticatedelectronics,furniture,travelgoods,andindustrialsupplies.,Intra-IndustryTrade,Sources:databaseofChinaCustoms,CCER,Dr.MiaojieYu,OutsourcinginChina,TradeBalance,Chinakeepsamodestoveralltradesurplus.ChinahassignificanttradesurplusfromtradewiththeU.S.ButitwasoffsetbyanincreasingtradedeficitwiththerestofAsia.,Sino-U.S.BilateralTrade,ThisyearChinareachesa$144billiontradesurpluswiththeU.S.Simultaneously,morethan3millionworkerslosttheirjobs.CongressmenintheU.S.threattoperformtradesanctionwithChina.Impose27.4%hightariffs.PushRMBrevaluatestronglyandquickly.Pendingthepermanentmostfavorednation(MFN)treatment.,Questions,Economicallyspeaking,isitdeficitnecessarybadforthedeficitcountry,andgoodforthesurpluscountry?Anyessentiallinkbetweentheblue-workerunemploymentandtradedeficit?IsitcrediblefortheU.S.congressionalthreat?,TradeDeficitisnotnecessarilybad!,Checkthebasictradeidentity:TradeDeficit=NetInflowofForeignCapitalTradedeficitislikeborrowingmoneyfromforeigners.Thekeypointishowtouse.InvestmentorConsumption?Historicalstoriesin1980s,1990s,and2000s.,TradeDeficititselfisnotBad,Tradedeficitmeansfinancingfromothercountries.Howtousesuchmoney?Consumeit?Investit?,CCER,Dr.MiaojieYu,TradeSurplusisnotnecessarilygood!,Statistically,itisgoodforGDPcalculation.ButGDPdoesnotmeananything!ExportBoomingandProductivityImprovementTheterminationofMultilateralFiberAgreement(MFA)in2005.GreenGDP,TheFarCryfromU.S.Workers,Anyessentiallinkbetweentheblue-workerunemploymentandtradedeficit?No.TheelasticityofsubstitutionbetweenChineseexportandotherAsiancountriesexportisveryhigh.Theessentialreasonforhugeunemploymentisduetotheeconomyrecessioninyears2001-2003intheU.S.,TheCongressionalThreat,Itisincredible.TheU.S.doesnothaveanyrighttoterminateourpermanentMFNtreatment.Theydontdaretouni-laterallyimposehightariffsonChinesetextileandgarments.ItviolatestheWTOprinciples.ItworsetheU.S.itselfduetotheelasticityofexportsandimports.Italreadygetshistoricallessonfromthestupidpolicy.,RMBAppreciationHelps?,CCER,Dr.MiaojieYu,RMBAppreciationHelps?,ChinaappreciatesitsRMBaround20%within3years,CCER,Dr.MiaojieYu,RMBAppreciationHelps?,Changeinexchangeratemighthelpreducethebilateraltradedeficit,butcannotreducetheU.S.wholedeficit.TradingpatterninChinaandtheASEAN-10arequitesimilar.U.S.hastoimportsimilarproductsatahighercost.TherevaluationmaynottranslateintosignificanthigherpricesforChineseproductssoldintheU.S.Chinafirmsmaycuttheirprofitmarginstomaintaintheirpriceinstead.Evenifpricesgoup,U.S.consumersmaybeslowtoswitchtocompetingproducersfromothercountries,whichcausesmoretradedeficitintheshortrun.,CCER,Dr.MiaojieYu,WhatdowestudyinTrade?,GainsfromTradeEachtradingcountrygainsWithinacountry,somegainbutsomelosePatternofTradeWhotradewithwhomforwhat?Ira-sectionaltradeGovernmentEffectofPolicyonTradeMultinationalCooperationandForeignDirectInvestment(FDI),TraditionalTradeTheory,SmithsAbsoluteAdvantageRicardianComparativeAdvantageHeck