财务报告分析与公司估值

2009-07,RIFShousingindustry未预见的经济波动（Unforeseeneconomy-widechanges）,2009-07,RIFSandCompetitivestrategyInaccountinganalysis,theanalystshouldidentifyandevaluatethepoliciesandtheestimatesthefirmusedtomeasurethekeysuccessfactorsandrisks.,2009-07,RIFS&KPMC,会计分析的步骤（续）,Case:Thebanksbaddebt/深发展Inventorymanagement/零售企业Rwarrantyexpensesandreserves/THTFBaddebtallowance/四川长虹再如，保险公司的理赔损失估计,2009-07,RIFS&KPMC,会计分析的步骤（续）,2:评估会计弹性（Assessaccountingflexibility）Noflexibility:Rcapitalizationofsoftwaredevelopmentcost.Accountingnumbershavethepotentialtobeinformative,dependinguponhowmanagersexercisethisflexibility.,2009-07,RIFS&KPMC,会计分析的步骤（续）,3:评估会计策略（Evaluateaccountingstrategy）Normsofindustry.WarrantyallowanceIncentives.Share-basedpaymentChangedpoliciesandestimates.Depreciationexp.Largewrite-off.ManipulatingquarterlyreportsBusinesstransactionstructure.bond,2009-07,RIFS&KPMC,会计分析的步骤（续）,4:评估披露的质量（Evaluatethequalityofdisclosure）Adequatedisclosures.万科sLettertotheshareholdersFootnotesAdequateexplanationofcurrentperformance.MA&DAdditionaldisclosure.InvestmentinqualityimprovementSegmentdisclosureBadnews,2009-07,RIFS&KPMC,会计分析的步骤（续）,5:确认可能存在的问题（Identifypotentialredflags）Unexplainedchangesofaccountingpolicies.THTForOTHERSUnexplainedtransactionsthatboostprofits.非经常性损益UnusualincreasesinA/Rorinventories.方正科技/ITindustryGapbetweenincomeandcashflowortaxincome.有些企业宁愿税收损失,2009-07,RIFS&KPMC,会计分析的步骤（续）,5:确认可能存在的问题（Identifypotentialredflags）Unexplainedchangesofaccountingpolicies.THTForOTHERSUnexplainedtransactionsthatboostprofits.非经常性损益UnusualincreasesinA/Rorinventories.方正科技/ITindustryGapbetweenincomeandcashflowortaxincome.有些企业宁愿税收损失,2009-07,RIFS&KPMC,会计分析的步骤（续）,（续前页）Unexplainedchangesofaccountingpolicies.THTForOTHERSUnexplainedtransactionsthatboostprofits.非经常性损益UnusualincreasesinA/Rorinventories.方正科技/ITindustryGapbetweenincomeandcashflowortaxincome.有些企业宁愿税收损失,2009-07,RIFS&KPMC,会计分析的步骤（续）,6:纠正会计扭曲（Undoaccountingdistortions）结合现金流量表分析Cashflowstatement结合财务报表附注分析Financialstatementfootnotes,2009-07,RIFS&KPMC,5.会计分析的一些误区,稳健会计好的会计（ConservativeaccountingVSgoodaccounting）异常会计处理会计处理有问题（UnusualaccountingVSquestionableaccounting）会计政策与估计变更盈余管理（ChanginginaccountingpoliciesandaccrualsVSearningsmanagement）,2009-07,RIFS&KPMC,小结,评价财务报告质量高低的主要标准是看其是否公允地反映了企业的经营实质财务报告的主要质量特征是可靠性与相关性，两者之间常有冲突。影响会计信息质量的主要因素有：会计规则，会计估计，会计政策选择，以及会计披露。通过行业与战略分析，可以明确企业主要的会计估计与会计政策。通过会计分析，可以修正会计数据，有利评估企业经营绩效，是财务分析与预测估值的基础。,2009-07,RIFS&KPMC,四、财务分析,目的与技术传统的杜邦分析法EVA分析修正的杜邦分析法ROE分析的缺陷现金流量分析,2009-07,RIFS&KPMC,1.财务分析目的与技术,财务分析的目的（Purpose）评估过去与现在的经济绩效（Evaluatethecurrentandpastperformance）评估绩效的可持续性（Assessitssustainability）技术（Techniques）比率分析（Ratioanalysis）现金流量分析（Cashflowanalysis）,2009-07,RIFS&KPMC,比率分析,比率分析目的：Evaluatetheeffectivenessofthefirmsstrategiesandpoliciesinbelowareas企业盈利与增长的四个驱动因素（Fourdriversofafirmsprofitabilityandgrowth）经营管理（Operatingmanagement）投资管理（Investmentmanagement）财务决策（Financialdecisions）股利分配（Dividendpolicy）,2009-07,RIFS&KPMC,比率分析,三种基本方法（Threemethods）历史标准（Time-seriescomparison）:examinetheeffectivenessofafirmsstrategyovertimeholdingfirm-specificfactorsconstant行业标准（Cross-sectionalcomparison）:examinetherelativeperformanceofafirmwithinitsindustryholdingindustry-levelfactorsconstant绝对标准（Compareratiostosomeabsolutebenchmark）:suchasthecomparebetweentherateofreturnandthecostofcapitalassociatedwiththeinvestment.,2009-07,RIFS&KPMC,2.传统的杜邦分析法,衡量整体的获利能力（Measuringoverallprofitability）净资产收益率=净利润/所有者权益ROE=NetIncome/ShareholdersEquityUS:Largepubliclytradedfirms11-13%P.R.China:?CASE：国内相当部分A股上市公司rs?,Ifrsg,getnegativestockprice,whichisnonsense.Wecantusemodelunless(1)grsand(2)gisexpectedtobeconstantforever.Becausegmustbealong-termgrowthrate,itcannotbers.,2009-07,RIFS&KPMC,问题：一些新设立企业无股利历史；一些有名的企业也不派发股利，如微软；现在有一种发展趋势，股票回购代替现金分红；不利于了解企业的经营，不利于企业进行以价值为基础的管理。,股利折现模型,2009-07,RIFS&KPMC,自由现金流量法FCF,关键：FCF:企业多余的现金算不算FCF？gWACC持续性,2009-07,RIFS&KPMC,常数增长模型的应用,Gordon模型的应用：常数增长模型在FCF模型中的应用（见上）该模型可用来分析中国股市的泡沫问题Case:中国建筑,2009-07,RIFS&KPMC,超常收益法ABNORMALEARNING,Under“cleansurplusaccounting”,theDIV,NI,andBVEhavethefollowingrelations:,2009-07,RIFS&KPMC,超常收益法ABNORMALEARNING,Equityvalue=Bookvalueofequity+PVofexpectedfutureabnormalearning,2009-07,RIFS&KPMC,倍数法Multiples,选择绩效或价值衡量的指标Selectameasureofperformanceorvalue(e.g.,earnings,sales,cashflows,bookequity,bookassets)估计价格乘数Estimatingpricemultipliesforcomparablefirmsusingthemeasures将可比公司的价格乘数运用所分析的公司Applyingthecomparablefirmmultipletothemeasureofthefirmbeinganalyzed,2009-07,RIFS&KPMC,倍数法Multiples,要点：可比公司的选择可比公司的盈利异常根据本公司的实际情况，修正价格乘数Case：交通银行、招商、民生等,2009-07,RIFS&KPMC,5.会计方法与估值,会计方法的选择是否会影响到公司估值呢？YesorNo!No!Althoughconservative(aggressive)accountingresultsinlower(higher)bookvaluesofshareholdersequity,thisisexactlyoffsetbyhigher(lower)expectedresidualincome.,2009-07,RIFS&KPMC,会计方法与估值,Yes!Totheextentaccountingchoicesmaskthetrueeconomicperformanceoftheeconomy,alessexperienceanalystcanbemisledregardingthecompanyscurrentandfutureperformance.例：Financialstatementanalysis,P-602,2009-07,RIFS&