Bloomberg2015-11-09_-_Q4_2015_PV_Market_Outlook.ppt

Q42015PVMARKETOUTLOOK,JennyChase,9November2015,Source:BloombergNewEnergyFinance,PVdemandandsupplysummary(GW),Q42015PVMarketOutlook,Note:Aconservativeandoptimisticforecasthasbeendevelopedforeachcountry.Itisunlikelythatallcountrieswillcomeinattheconservativeoroptimisticend,sofortheglobalforecast,conservativeis(sumofconservativecountryforecasts+25%*(sumofoptimistic-conservativeforecasts).Globaloptimisticforecastissumofconservativecountryforecasts+75%*(sumofoptimistic-conservativeforecasts).Datahere,Source:BloombergNewEnergyFinance,PVnewbuildhistoricalandconservativeforecast,Q42015PVMarketOutlook,Note:Aconservativeandoptimisticforecasthasbeendevelopedforeachcountry.Itisunlikelythatallcountrieswillcomeinattheconservativeoroptimisticend,sofortheglobalforecast,conservativeis(sumofconservativecountryforecasts+25%*(sumofoptimistic-conservativeforecasts).Globaloptimisticforecastissumofconservativecountryforecasts+75%*(sumofoptimistic-conservativeforecasts).Datahere,Source:BloombergNewEnergyFinance,PVnewbuildhistoricalandoptimisticforecast,Q42015PVMarketOutlook,Note:VariablecostincludesprocessingcostandSGelectronicsmarketisestimatedat27,000tonnes.BlocksinredrepresentChinesemanufacturers.Datahere.,Source:BloombergNewEnergyFinance,Q42015PVMarketOutlook,Supplycurveforpolysilicon,2015,Estimatedvariablecost($/kg),Estimatedvariablecost($/kg),Wafermakercosts,Source:BloombergNewEnergyFinance,companyfilings,analystestimates,GCLsmulti-Siwafercostandprice,H12015(UScent/W),Longismono-Siwafercostandprice,H12015(UScent/W),Q42015PVMarketOutlook,ChinesePVcellandmoduleexports,JanuaryAugust2015,Source:BloombergNewEnergyFinance,Sinoimex,BYDESTINATION,BYCOMPANY,Q42015PVMarketOutlook,Note:SpendingonpolysiliconwasreportedbyJinko,waferbyGCL,modulebyCanadianSolar,cellbyalargeanonymousmanufacturer.,Source:BloombergNewEnergyFinance,companyfilings,analystestimates,Q42015PVMarketOutlook,Bestachievablemodulecostforfullyintegratedproduction,Q22015(UScent/W),Note:Costshereincludeprocessinganddepreciationforinternalproductionandspendingonexternalcontractmanufacturing.Datahere.,Source:BloombergNewEnergyFinance,filings,analystestimates,Q42015PVMarketOutlook,ModuleproductioncostsandASPsofselectedcompanies,Q22015(UScent/W),Source:BloombergNewEnergyFinance,companyfilings,analystestimates,Q42015PVMarketOutlook,2015moduleshipmenttargetandyear-endcapacity,selectedcompanies(MW),Source:BloombergNewEnergyFinance.,Q42015PVMarketOutlook,Altman-ZscoresofquotedpureplayPVmanufacturers,asofQ22015,Pvcellandmoduleimportstatistics,Note:Furtherdetailsinthemonthlynote,SolartrendsfromCustomsdata,Source:BloombergNewEnergyFinance,Sinoimex,PVcellsandmodulesimportedintotheEuropeanUnion,bycountryoforigin,January-July2015($),PVcellsandmodulesimportedintotheUS,bycountryoforigin,January-July2015($),Q42015PVMarketOutlook,Note:Datahere.,Source:BloombergNewEnergyFinanceSolarSpotPriceIndex,Q42015PVMarketOutlook,Priceofsolar-gradepolysilicon,2013-October2015($/kgnominal),Note:Datahere.,Source:BloombergNewEnergyFinanceSolarSpotPriceIndex,Q42015PVMarketOutlook,PriceofPVcellsandmodules,2013-October2015($/Wnominal),Note:Datahere.,Source:BloombergNewEnergyFinanceSolarSpotPriceIndex,Q42015PVMarketOutlook,PriceofPVmodulesinsmallquantities,2013-October2015($/Wnominal),Note:Datahere.,Source:BloombergNewEnergyFinance,Q42015PVMarketOutlook,Benchmarkcapexfora1MWfixed-axisPVsystem,2010-2020,2015/W(DC),Note:Datahere.,Source:BloombergNewEnergyFinance,BSW-Solar,Solarchoice.au,METI,companyfilings,Q42015PVMarketOutlook,PubliccapexbenchmarksforresidentialPVsystems($/W),Note:Datahere.,Source:BloombergNewEnergyFinance,Q42015PVMarketOutlook,EBITmarginsofselectedquotedsolarcompanies,Q22015,Source:CommissariatGnralauDveloppementDurable,BloombergNewEnergyFinance,Q42015PVMarketOutlook,H12015PVadditions,France,Note:Assumedtheoreticalcapacityfactors:40%(hydro),20%(PV),35%(STEG),55%(Biomass),30%(Wind),85%(Nuclear),90%(Coal&Gas),65%(Oil).,Source:ComisinNacionaldelosmercadosylaCompetencia,Q42015PVMarketOutlook,Spainstheoreticalgenerationpotentialandactualpowerconsumption,2004-14(TWh),Note:2015/16valuesandhistoricaldatabasedonFiTdeploymentdatareleased23October.,Source:BloombergNewEnergyFinance,DECC,Q42015PVMarketOutlook,UKPVfeed-intariffinstallations,historicalandunderDECC“donothing”and“consultation”scenarios(MW),Note:datarefertoregistrationsontheROO-FiTdatabaseforprojects50kW.SmallerprojectsareregisteredontheMCSdatabasebutcannotpre-accredit.,Source:BloombergNewEnergyFinance,DECC,Ofgem,Q42015PVMarketOutlook,Installationandpre-accreditationofPVprojects50kW5MWundertheUKFiT,MW,#ofinstallations,Note:doesnotincludeoperationalprojects.,Source:BloombergNewEnergyFinance,DECC.,Q42015PVMarketOutlook,UKsolarprojectsinthenationalplanningdatabase(GW),Source:BloombergNewEnergyFinance,Q42015PVMarketOutlook,ChinasPVdemand(GW),Conservativescenario,Optimisticscenario,Note:Provinceswithunder100MWtotalnotshown.Negative2014unusedquotameanstheprovinceconnectedmorethanallowedbytheNationalEnergyAdministration.,Source:BloombergNewEnergyFinance,NationalEnergyAdministration,Q42015PVMarketOutlook,PVconnectedinChineseprovincesJanuary-September2015(MW),Note:Exchangerate:USD:TWD=1:31.5R=Roundoftender.,Source:BloombergNewEnergyFinance,TaiwanBureauofEnergy,Q42015PVMarketOutlook,Aver