讲义43-Evidence-西蛋

43. The following appeared in a memorandum written by the chairperson of the West Egg Town Council.Two years ago, consultants predicted that West Eggs landfill, which is used for garbage disposal, would be completely filled within five years. During the past two years, however, the towns residents have been recycling twice as much material as they did in previous years. Next month the amount of recycled materialwhich includes paper, plastic, and metalshould further increase, since charges for pickup of other household garbage will double. Furthermore, over 90 percent of the respondents to a recent survey said that they would do more recycling in the future. Because of our towns strong commitment to recycling, the available space in our landfill should last for considerably longer than predicted.Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument. 提纲：1. 循环垃圾数量是两倍，不可循环的垃圾数量呢？2. 90%将来用更多的循环材料，调查的合理性以及是否说到做到？3. 即使可循环垃圾减少，但是填埋场真的够用？开头段：1. 同义改写因果关系：作者结论。因为。In the memo, the chairperson of the WGTC suggests that their landfills availability for garbage disposal will last longer than the consultant predicted two years ago. To support this, the author cites/mentions the residents commitment to recycling household material and the declining amount of garbage needed to be disposed.2. 尽管看起来不错，但是结论也未必对。因此需要一些证据。Despite those pieces of evidence, close examination of the chairpersons lines of reasoning reveals several problems. Therefore, we need more evidence to determine whether the argument is logical and the authors prediction can be fulfilled.主旨段一：1. 引述原文：作者提到循环垃圾数量是以前的两倍。Firstly, the author cites data indicating that residents recycling amount of garbage in recent two years has doubled compared to the previous years.2. 但是，未必对。因为不知道不可循环的垃圾数量。However, knowing only the relative change, we cannot sufficiently conclude that the garbage needed to be disposed has also decreased as a consequence.3. 因此，需要证据说明扔掉的垃圾数量。Therefore, we need evidence about the amount of garbage that was disposed in recent years.4. 削弱证据：If new evidence shows that the amount of disposed garbage was actually on the rise, then the demand for landfill will increase as a result.5. 加强证据：However, If new evidence shows that the increasing engagement in recycling the led to a reduction of the disposed garbage, the the data cited by the author can support his/her view.主旨段二：1. 引述原文：90%愿意使用循环材料。Secondly, the author cites a survey showing that over 90 percent of the respondents would like to recycle more materials in the future.2. 但是，未必对。调查可能有问题。However, there are some potential problems concerning the survey. For example, the validity of the survey is highly related to the sample size and their representativeness.3. 因此，证据一：调查是可信的。样本数量、代表性。Therefore, we need to know the total number of the respondents and how they were selected.4. 削弱证据：If the sample size is too small, or if the respondents who said they would recycle more materials in the future have already done a great job in recycling, then the authors viewpoint will be weaken.5. 加强证据：But if the survey is in a large scale or the respondents are randomly chosen, then it will strengthen the authors argument.6. 证据二：是不是说到做到。Additionally, we also need to know that the peoples will may not fully translate to their actions in real life.7. 加强/削弱证据：If the respondents will do as they wished, it will help enhance the authors conclusion.主旨段三：1. 即使扔的垃圾在将来会减少，但是生活垃圾可能只是占了很少一部分。Finally, granted that the amount of garbage to be disposed will decline, we still need to know whether the landfills availability will last longer than predicted because the household garbage only accounts for a part of the total garbage the city creates.2. 因此，证据：未来所有种类垃圾的数量。Therefore, we need evidence of the total amount of garbage that will be disposed to the landfill. 3. 削弱：If new evidence shows that the majority of garbage disposed to the landfill is from industry, then the prediction will be weaken.4. 加强：However, if the majority of garbage created in the WG city is from the residents, the authors argument can carry more weight.结尾段：1. Sum，尽管看起来作者结论对，但是还需要提供一些证据。To sum up, despite the evidence given by the chairperson, we still need to know the actual amount of recycling in the future, the real commitment of the residents to recycling