昆明学院大学生消费分析计量经济学论文

精品资料精品资料9JWKFFWVGTYMJGX2偏度S14546550,峰度K52026313X3偏度S36271750,峰度K22576743X4偏度S22693600,峰度K12166353X5偏度S39505390,峰度K24388283X6偏度S18666530,峰度K98674653X7偏度S39086380,峰度K25853403Y偏度S19138170,峰度K78800793所以,与标准正态分布S0,K3相比，昆明学院大学生每月的衣着消费X1、学习消费X2、娱乐消费X3、通讯消费X4、日常需品X5、饮食消费X6、情感投资X7、其他消费X8、月总消费Y皆呈现右偏、尖峰分布形态。由上图表还知，JARQUEBERA检验结果，该检验的零假设是样本服从正态分布。检验统计量为341622KSMNJB昆明学院大学生消费分析13式中，S和K是样本序列的偏度与峰度M是产生样本序列时用到的估计系数的个数。在零假设下，JB统计量服从X2（2）。根据EVIEWS给出的拒绝零假设。这个概率值是检验的相伴概率简称P值。由上图表知，P皆值皆接近0，表明至少在99的置信水平下拒绝零假设，即序列不服从正态分布。第四章回归分析41问题假设为了问题的简洁明了，现在对变量进行假设。假设月总消费为Y、衣着消费为X1、学习消费为X2、娱乐消费为X3、通讯消费为X4、日常需品为X5、饮食消费为X6、情感投资为X7（单位元）。假设月总消费Y受衣着消费X1、学习消费X2、娱乐消费X3、通讯消费X4、日常需品X5、饮食消费X6、情感投资X7的影响，建立线性方程。显然，月总消费Y的影响因素不只这些。42问题分析因变量月总消费Y的影响因素不只是衣着消费X1、学习消费X2、娱乐消费X3、通讯消费X4、日常需品X5、饮食消费X6、情感投资X7，但是，与多个自变量衣着消费X1、学习消费X2、娱乐消费X3、通讯消费X4、日常需品X5、饮食消费X6、情感投资X7有关。所以，就可以采用多元线性回归进行问题分析。昆明学院大学生每月的衣着消费X1、学习消费X2、娱乐消费X3、通昆明学院大学生消费分析14讯消费X4、日常需品X5、饮食消费X6、情感投资X7与月总消费Y的回归分析。设多元线性回归方程的基本形式为设随机变量Y与一般变量X1，X2，X3，X4，X5，X6，X7的线性回归模型为I01I2I3I4I5I6I7IYXXXXBBBB其中，为未知参数，为回归常数，34567，0为回归系数。Y称为被解释向量（因变量），而1234567，是称为解释变量（自变量）。7X，X，X43散点统计图02406801,201,4,601,02,03,04,0YX123X456X7分析从曲线统计图上我们可以大致的来看，每个变量和因变量看不出有何关系。只能看出1234567X,X,，Y与Y的点大致落在250,35000,1000的矩形域中44协方差分析昆明学院大学生消费分析15441协方差分析COVX2，X647215940,所以，模型回归的残差序列分布是不对称的，为右偏分布形态。KURTOSIS（峰度）94868313模型回归的残差分布成高瘦状态JB检验的P值为00000小于5的显著水平。因而在5的显著性水平下拒绝了零假设，即序列不服从于正态分布。昆明学院大学生消费分析21HETEROSKEDASTICITYTESTWHITEFSTATISTIC1817566PROBF28,17100112OBSRSQUARED4587087PROBCHISQUARE2800180SCALEDEXPLAINEDSS1851219PROBCHISQUARE2800000TESTEQUATIONDEPENDENTVARIABLERESID2METHODLEASTSQUARESDATE12/09/13TIME2249SAMPLE1200INCLUDEDOBSERVATIONS200VARIABLECOEFFICIENTSTDERRORTSTATISTICPROBC32753392362244138653701674X1200076230055131013827408902X1X202205760282492078082304360X1X300185930061095030433507612X1X4011630518923022474908224X1X500826780233507035407307237X1X600655230089176073475604635X1X700863680173123049888406185X2201106730288085038416707013X2X300853440353330024154208094X2X405829240780030074730904559X2X500011140304007000366609971X2X600233090147461015807108746X2X70306960293126104719802965X3200027880063139004415109648昆明学院大学生消费分析22X3X402763430377580073188004652X3X504025500344257116932902439X3X601408130093370150811401334X3X700418910184450022711608206X4200671080246271027249807856X4X503533720432412081721104149X4X600104200172854006028309520X4X701551300534330029032707719X5200209840075900027647307825X5X600055140092635005952909526X5X701296970298428043460106644X6200030090015330019629408446X6X700748050097027077097004418X7200906710141319064160105220RSQUARED0229354MEANDEPENDENTVAR6373432ADJUSTEDRSQUARED0103167SDDEPENDENTVAR1881091SEOFREGRESSION1781418AKAIKEINFOCRITERION2254672SUMSQUAREDRESID543E10SCHWARZCRITERION2302498LOGLIKELIHOOD2225672HANNANQUINNCRITER2274027FSTATISTIC1817566DURBINWATSONSTAT1983469PROBFSTATISTIC0011212分析从上图可知，该检验F的值的概率P值为00112和LM的概率P值为00180拒绝原假设，认为模型回归残差序列存在异方差昆明学院大学生消费分析2353F检验FSTATISTIC1032209PROBFSTATISTIC0000000分析从表中结果可以看出，PROBFSTATISTIC即相伴概率P值，由F1032209，P值0000000衣着消费X1娱乐消费X3情感投资X7通讯消费X4日常需品X5学习消费X2可以看出昆明学院大学生的基本消费结构。昆明学院大学生消费分析26参考文献1概率论与数列统计教程（第二版）茂诗松上海科大出版社19942高等代数M王萼芳石生明高等教育出版社19953计量经济学（第三版）李子奈潘文卿高等教育出版社20104西方经济学（宏观部分）（第五版）高鸿业中国人民大学出版社20105西方经济学（微观部分）（第五版）高鸿业中国人民大学出版社20106数学建模方法及其应用（第二版）（数学建模培训教材）韩中庚高等教育出版社20097数据分析与EVIEWS应用易丹辉中国统计出版社20028统计预测原理杨曾武北京中国人民出版社19909计量经济学分析方法与建模EVIEWS应用与实例高铁梅清华大学出版社200610EVIEWS统计分析与应用（修订版）李嫣怡电子工业出版社201311博弈论姚国庆高等教育出版社2003昆明学院大学生消费分析27附录附表1昆明学院大学生消费情况调查调查表每一调查问题每一选项人数分布表选项题号ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQR1121792201116533111101269131910942327271388414911180958515432146331677651358476111313967181151023115621144221161812987932131904548282719101411128134815143549184817321619151588178144291893518947723619204812123412201718321581061323昆明学院大学生消费分析28附表2昆明学院大学生消费情况调查调查表每一调查问题每一选项人数分布比率表题号选项ABCDEFGH160539521005580251515550531351356904047455590004525405770160706165835732567582038055515659335905751011557531011220110580901249035465101395022524014013595501455514065240157152704590240851510169575790401772014594517518470385115301910024060615206020859152129053065115续表选项题号IJKLMNOPQR昆明学院大学生消费分析2925005130450515955045210附表3昆明学院大学生每月的衣着消费、学习消费、娱乐消费、通讯消费、日常需品、饮食消费、情感投资、其他消费这几方面的消费，及总消费调查数据如下（单位元）衣着消费学习消费娱乐消费通讯消费日常需品饮食消费情感投资总消费15020100805040050100010050100100150300508502010207020500200890050100503050007301001050803040030800505050502030020540250100200501004002001350601005020200037000015010050001050502020100502000440200101001005020007601005070653025045660501001005040006601001050100506000960501001005040006601005008040400067010010010050504001001000300200200150100550400200000300501507000120020010010010050300100100002001001002003001001000010050050503002001300550252502501508507503375昆明学院大学生消费分析3030505050404001007201005050705030010077020010020015010030020013003005020012020350100124010010010802030010071000100501004501008002001002001001502001001150505010080150300100880100501005050300150100030020050100150400150155025050100100503001001050400150200150206001017305010050103005062010050100805030007302020010010020305052050201030308003010105050100605060010010601001005040105001001000305030402040050640100100504010500100100010010050501020010071030010020015030600200178010020050502030015087030050400200100400200165020010010010050600150140010010200702035007501001001007020300100790200200100150604002001410200200100150606002001610昆明学院大学生消费分析31100501002040010010090010010300605040010010701005030010010060010013503001503006010050020018050505010010030010075010050501005045010095010050100100504002001050505050505030050650100501005050400501300100100501005040050950501001001001003001009001001005050503001008505020200302050010012202005030020010050020018505050040504003001090051001002040030011253001002001002001000300245010050100505020050700100500100100300100950100100200100503001001000202030020040050010016402030501005050020012502010301001003000560500501001503005002501850200100400100100400501350200100200150504001501400100505050100250507005050205070250505605010020505025050620昆明学院大学生消费分析32502020010010300508305020200100503001008701001030010050300100106010010400150100400501310300502005050400010503005020010050100010018002001001001001003001001100300100200755040020013253001001001001004001001280250100150801502502001280150605050803008083010050206030400207801002005015050500100120080100505050200100630250502008050200100103010010050501003000900100100505010030009005050100505028006802010200100506001001130100100505010030009003020100200506001001200200020050508000130010010010010205001009301005020010050500501100203010010010040007505050101005020050510551255050702005060010050050100300060050200705020050440昆明学院大学生消费分析3305020100200300100870250302001005050030014802002001001001005000120000505050050075000100605050007105020100100100300100870501010010010025010076050501007020300506400002003001500100030001003020040010040050133010050305020050010010503003003003008001203002620200100200100503001001150100100100100100100010017000010060306000109050105050203001006305050505050300255751005050100150500501000100100100100100500501100100100100100505005010501001001001002006001001400503010015010060100690200200500100200600500230050101006020700400144010020508030300068010050501001003000700100500501006005095010080505030300106301005050150503000800昆明学院大学生消费分析3402005050100001120505050302050303301001001009050400100104050300501040005405050100801003001008801001001001003060010011301008010010030300076050100505010020050600502005050100200507001001001001001003001001000100100100100100300100100020000601503000710503001007020010065050100300100504001001100100100200100504001001100100100200505040010011001001001001001005001001200002001003003000100015050100100504001001150100500501035010076050105050506001009305030505030300505801003080100403501008301001005050504005090010010050507030010087010050100100504001009505020506520270255755050756520280356500010010010060001000昆明学院大学生消费分析355020505015015004708030070202003047050205010010015020540302050100504005074014005020020010040010025002025850501040020828151010504545006202005020010050050020018003020501005045010085010050501002527510075010020010060302005084020100505050300206701001005050100500501000101003050350204702005010010060300200111030503050203002051020030040015015090044028404040202020200103601510010020360505552010301005030050620505050505030050650505010302030004803002003002005050020017504002001002005040010014500403080545006051000501000100100500027500101000200100600019101005010100352005500100100100100100200100800昆明学院大学生消费分析3620020010010030020010012502002001001003002001001250200501001001004001001050附表4昆明学院大学生消费调查问卷首先，请原谅占用了您一些私人时间。大学生作为一个特殊的消费群体正到越来越多的关注，为了进一步了解在校大学生的消费心理，熟悉大学生的消费结构，特此调查，希望您能认真填写问卷，谢谢您的合作1性别A女B男2所在院系A经济学院B外国语学院C城乡建设与工程管理学院D物理科学与技术系E社会管理学院F音乐学院G农学院H化学科学与技术系I教师教育学院J美术与艺术设计学院K医学院L生命科学与技术系M体育学院N信息技术学院O旅游学院P人文学院Q自动控制与机械工程学院R数学系3年级A大一B大二C大三D大四4父母职业A农民B工人C公司职员、事业单位D管理人员E商人F失业G其他_来自于A农村B城镇C城市6是否独生子女A是B否7您是否正在谈恋爱A是B否昆明学院大学生消费分析378花父母的钱，心中有何想法（）A理所当然B心有愧疚但无