【精品硕博论文-水利水电工程】基于物理栖息地模型的梯级水库多目标生态调度研究1

基于物理栖息地模型的梯级水库多目标生态调度研究MULTIOBJECTIVEOPTIMIZATIONOFCASCADERESERVOIRSECOLOGICALDISPATCHBASEDONPHYSICALHABITATSIMULATIONMODEL摘要本文以梯级水库的生态环境效益、社会效益、经济效益整体最大化为目标函数，建立了梯级水库多目标生态调度模型，用物理栖息地模型求得流域内典型生物良好生存所需的生态流量目标，通过对多目标生态调度模型进行求解，并将生态调度结果与常规调度结果进行对比分析后表明，梯级水库若实行生态调度，对于保护流域内典型特有生物具有重要作用。ABSTRACTAMODELOFMULTIOBJECTIVEECOLOGICALDISPATCHOFCASCADERESERVOIRSISESTABLISHEDINPURSUITOFMAXIMUMOFECOLOGICALENVIRONMENTALBENEFITS,SOCIALANDECONOMICBENEFITSTOOBTAINTHEECOLOGICALFLOWREQUIREDFORTHESURVIVALOFTYPICALCREATURESWITHINAWATERSHEDBYSOLVINGTHEPHYSICALHABITATMODELTHROUGHACOMPARATIVEANALYSISBETWEENECOLOGICALREGULATIONANDCONVENTIONALSCHEDULING,RESULTSINDICATETHATECOLOGICALDISPATCHINGOFTHECASCADERESERVOIRISANEFFECTIVEMETHODFORTHEPROTECTIONOFTYPICALSPECIESWITHINTHEWATERSHED关键字梯级水库、多目标生态调度、物理栖息地模型KEYWORDSCASCADERESERVOIRECOLOGICALDISPATCHPHYSICALHABITATMODEL1序言INTRODUCTION河流梯级开发通常以发电作为主要目标，部分水库兼有灌溉、防洪、供水、航运等综合利用，这些目标与河流生态环境保护间具有既协调一致、又相互矛盾的特性。所谓生态调度，是对梯级水库的运行方式进行调整，使梯级水库能够在尽量满足各种综合利用要求的同时降低对流域生态环境的不利影响，保护流域特有、珍稀、濒危物种不受破坏，维持河流生态系统稳定性1。1959年开始前苏联在伏尔加河、19701972年南非对潘哥拉水库、19911992年乌克兰在德涅斯特河、19911996年美国在田纳西河、1964年我国对三门峡水库及2002年对小浪底进行了生态调度实践，对于特定河流的生态环境的保护起到了积极作用。CASCADEDEVELOPMENTOFTHERIVERUSUALLYTAKESGENERATINGELECTRICITYASTHEMAINTARGET,SOMEOFTHERESERVOIRSFORTHECOMPREHENSIVEUTILIZATIONOFIRRIGATION,FLOODCONTROL,WATERSUPPLYANDNAVIGATIONRELATIONSHIPBETWEENTHESEOBJECTIVESANDRIVERECOENVIRONMENTALPROTECTIONISBOTHCOHERENTANDMUTUALLYCONTRADICTORYSOCALLEDECOLOGICALOPERATIONOFCASCADERESERVOIRISTOADJUSTOPERATIONMODETOMEETUTILIZATIONREQUIREMENTSFORTHERESERVOIRSMEANWHILEITREDUCESNEGATIVEEFFECTSONTHEECOLOGICALENVIRONMENT,PROTECTSENDEMICANDENDANGEREDSPECIESWITHINWATERSHEDFROMDESTRUCTIONANDMAINTAINSSTABILITYOFRIVERECOSYSTEM1INTERNATIONALECOLOGICALOPERATIONPRACTICESHADCONDUCTEDONTHEVOLGARIVERINTHEFORMERSOVIETIN1959,PANGELARESERVOIRINSOUTHAFRICAFROM1970TO1972,THETENNESSEERIVERINUKRAINEFROM1991TO1992ANDTHETENNESSEERIVERINTHEUNITEDSTATESFROM1991TO1996OURCOUNTRYTOOKECOLOGICALSCHEDULINGPRACTICESONSANMENXIARESERVOIRIN1964ANDXIAOLANGDIIN2002,WHICHPLAYEDAPOSITIVEROLEFORSPECIFICECOLOGICALENVIRONMENTPROTECTIONOFTHERIVER为推广流域生态调度，国内外相关学者开展了理论研究与调度实践，经历了理念的提出、模型研究、调度实践、管理体制探讨等四个阶段（1）1971年，SCHLUETER提出水利工程不应该仅为满足人类对河流利用要求，同时还应该具有维护或创造河流的生态多样性的功能2；2007年，董哲仁提出水库多目标生态调度是指在实现防洪、发电、供水、灌溉、航运等社会经济多种目标的前提下，兼顾河流生态系统需求的水库调度方法3。（2）1998年，DAHUGHE建立了满足生态需水的水库调度模型4；2010年，叶季平、王丽萍针对大型水库的运行方式特点，建立了大型水库生态调度模型，并进行了求解5；（3）2011年，张洪波、钱会等提出了基于结构目标的水库生态调度模型，并采用遗传算法进行了求解6；2001年，黑河流域中游取水口8处“全线闭口，集中下泄”，滋润林草地，挽救胡杨树7；20012006年，塔里木河先后8次向下游进行生态应急输水。（4）2008年，尹正杰、黄薇等对长江流域梯级水库生态调度管理体制进行了探讨，认为建立科学合理的管理体制和机制是实施流域内水库生态调度管理的关键8。TOPROMOTEBASINSECOLOGICALDISPATCH,DOMESTICANDFOREIGNSCHOLARSHAVECARRIEDOUTTHEORETICALSTUDIESANDSCHEDULINGPRACTICES,WHICHHASGONETHROUGHFOURSTAGESPROPOSINGCONCEPTS,RESEARCHINGMODELS,SCHEDULINGPRACTICES,ANDEXPLORINGMANAGEMENTSYSTEMS1IN1971,SCHLUETERPUTFORWARDTHATWATERCONSERVANCYPROJECTSSHOULDNOTONLYBETOMEETTHEREQUIREMENTSOFHUMANSUTILIZATIONOFTHERIVER,BUTALSOHAVETHEFUNCTIONTOMAINTAINORCREATEECOLOGICALDIVERSITYOFRIVERS2IN2007,DONGZHERENPROPOSEDTHATMULTIOBJECTIVEOPTIMIZATIONOFECOLOGICALDISPATCHWASARESERVOIRSCHEDULINGMETHODWHICHREFERSTOTHEREALIZATIONOFAVARIETYOFSOCIOECONOMICOBJECTIVESSUCHASFLOODCONTROL,POWERGENERATION,WATERSUPPLY,IRRIGATION,NAVIGATION,ETCANDTHECONSIDERATIONSOFNEEDSOFRIVERECOSYSTEMS32IN1998,DAHUGHESETUPARESERVOIRSCHEDULINGMODELTOMEETTHEECOLOGICALREQUIREMENT4IN2010,YEJIPINGANDWANGLIPINGESTABLISHEDALARGERESERVOIRECOLOGICALSCHEDULINGMODELANDSOLVEDITACCORDINGTOCHARACTERISTICSOFLARGERESERVOIRSFORTHEOPERATINGMODE3IN2011,ZHANGHONGBO,QIANHUI,ETC,PUTFORWARDARESERVOIRSCHEDULINGMODELBASEDONTHEECOLOGICALSTRUCTUREOFTHETARGETANDUSEDGENETICALGORITHMSTOSOLVEIT6IN2001,8INTAKESFROMMIDDLEREACHESOFHEIHERIVERWERE“ALLCLOSED,ANDCENTRALIZEDDISCHARGED“,AIMEDATMOISTENINGFORESTANDGRASSLAND,ANDSAVINGPOPLARS7FROM2001TO2006,THETARIMRIVERHADMADEEIGHTTIMESWATERSUPPLIESTOTHEDOWNSTREAMAREASFORECOLOGICALEMERGENCY4IN2008,YINZHENGJIE,HUANGWEI,ETC,DISCUSSEDTHEECOLOGICALSCHEDULINGMANAGEMENTSYSTEMSOFTHEYANGTZERIVERCASCADERESERVOIRS,ANDTHOUGHTTHEESTABLISHMENTOFASCIENTIFICANDRATIONALSYSTEMANDMECHANISMISTHEKEYTOTHEIMPLEMENTATIONOFECOLOGICALMANAGEMENTOFRESERVOIRBASIN8上述研究与实践进展不难看出，我国开展生态调度理论研究较晚，生态调度实践也大多着重于解决水环境恶化等问题，主要是为了满足人类的生产、生活需求，对于鱼类等水生生物的生存需求等考虑不多。鉴于此，本文针对水生生态系统中最重要的一类生物鱼类的生存需求作为梯级水库生态调度的生态目标，进行梯级水库多目标生态调度研究。THROUGHTHEPROGRESSINTHEORETICALSTUDIESANDSCHEDULINGPRACTICES,ITISNOTDIFFICULTTOSEEOURCOUNTRYCARRYOUTRELEVANTRESEARCHRELATIVELYLATE,MOSTLYFOCUSINGONSOLVINGISSUESLIKETHEDETERIORATIONOFWATERENVIRONMENT,MEETINGTHEDEMANDSFORPRODUCTIONANDLIVINGOFHUMANBEINGSANDIGNORINGTHENEEDSOFOTHERAQUATICORGANISMSINVIEWOFTHIS,THISPAPERTAKESSURVIVALNEEDSOFFISHTHEMOSTIMPORTANTAQUATICORGANISM,ASTHEECOLOGICALOPERATIONTARGETOFCASCADERESERVOIR2物理栖息地模型PHYSICALHABITATSIMULATIONMODEL物理栖息地模型（PHYSICALHABITATSIMULATIONMODEL，PHABSIM模型）是关于河道内物理栖息地水力变量（深度、流速、底质和覆盖度）、栖息地指示物种参数及其变化的一种概念模型，是根据指示物种所需的物理生境条件，评价不同流量下的栖息地适宜度，从而得出适宜生物生存的流量条件9。与其他方法相比，该模型考虑了生物本身对物理生境的要求，被认为是目前生态需水计算方法中最复杂和最具科学依据方法之一，可以作为计算生态流量的一种科学方法。模型的计算流程如下10PHYSICALHABITATSIMULATIONMODELISACONCEPTUALMODELREFLECTINGRIVERHYDRAULICVARIABLESDEPTH,VELOCITY,SEDIMENTANDCOVERAGE,HABITATINDICATORSPECIESPARAMETERSANDTHEIRCHANGES,ANDBASINGINDICATORSPECIESHABITATCONDITIONSREQUIREDFORTHEPHYSICALEVALUATIONOFHABITATSUITABILITYONDIFFERENTFLOWRATETOARRIVEATASUITABLEBIOLOGICALSURVIVALOFFLOWCONDITIONS9COMPAREDWITHOTHERMETHODS,THEMODELITSELFCONSIDERSBIOLOGICALREQUIREMENTSOFORGANISMSANDCANBEREGARDEDASONEOFTHEMOSTCOMPLEXANDMOSTSCIENTIFICMETHODSUSEDFORTHEECOLOGICALWATERDEMANDCALCULATIONCALCULATIONPROCESSMODELASFOLLOWS10（1）选定研究区域具有代表性的物种作为目标物种，详细调查该物种的生活情况，将栖息地适宜性指标与物种生境的影响因子（水深、流速、底质、水温等）关联，绘制该物种不同生命周期的生境适宜性曲线。REPRESENTATIVESPECIESINSELECTEDRESEARCHAREASARESETASTARGETSPECIESANDDETAILEDINVESTIGATIONSOFTHELIFESITUATIONOFTHESPECIESAREREQUIREDTHEHABITATSUITABILITYINDEXANDSPECIESHABITATIMPACTFACTORWATERDEPTH,FLOWVELOCITY,SEDIMENT,WATERTEMPERATURE,ETCAREASSOCIATEDTODRAWTHELIFECYCLEOFTHESPECIESHABITATSUITABILITYCURVES（2）根据生物调查情况选择目标物种较为敏感的河段作为研究河段，在各个研究河段设定几个代表性断面来控制河段的水力学特性。在最近的水文站处测定至少3个高、中、低流量，作为校正流量。采集每个断面的河底高程及校正流量下的水深、流速等数据。ACCORDINGTOSURVEY,SPECIESSENSITIVERIVERSARECHOSENASTHERESEARCHTARGETANDSEVERALREPRESENTATIVESECTIONSSETUPTOCONTROLTHEHYDRAULICCHARACTERISTICOFRIVERATLEAST3HIGH,MEDIUMANDLOWFLOWRATESAREMEASUREDATTHERECENTHYDROLOGICALSTATIONSASTHECALIBRATIONFLOWANDEACHSECTIONOFTHEBOTTOMELEVATIONANDWATERDEPTHANDVELOCITYDATAUNDERTHECALIBRATIONFLOWARERECORDED（3）输入研究河段的各个代表性断面的相对距离、大断面资料及校正流量对应的水位和流速，建立PHABSIM水力学模型，以一维水力学公式为基础进行水力学模拟，选择合适的方法进行模拟得到断面各分区的水深、流速。THESTUDYREACHESREPRESENTATIVECROSSSECTIONOFRELATIVEDISTANCEANDLARGECROSSSECTIONDATAANDWATERLEVELANDFLOWVELOCITYCORRESPONDINGTOCALIBRATIONFLOWENTERED,PHABSIMHYDRAULICSMODELISSETUPONTHEBASISOFONEDIMENSIONALHYDRAULICEQUATIONFORHYDRAULICSIMULATIONANDAPPROPRIATEMETHODNEEDEDTOSIMULATEWATERDEPTHANDVELOCITYOFEACHPARTITIONOFEACHSECTION（4）根据适宜生境调查及相关研究成果绘制目标物种生境适宜性曲线并输入PHABSIM物理栖息地模型，结合水力学模型模拟的水深、流速数据进行物理栖息地模拟，计算研究河段不同流量下的加权可利用面积（WUA），其计算方法如下TARGETSPECIESHABITATSUITABILITYCURVESAREDRAWNBASEDONSUITABLEHABITATANDRELATEDRESEARCHESANDENTEREDINPHABSIMPHYSICALHABITATSIMULATIONMODEL,WHICHWASCOMBINEDWITHTHEHYDRAULICMODELSIMULATIONSOFWATERDEPTHANDVELOCITYDATAHABITATWEIGHTEDUSABLEAREASWUAATDIFFERENTFLOWCONDITIONARECALCULATEDBYTHEFOLLOWINGFORMULAMERGEFORMAT1,/IIIRWUACSFVERLVDTTHANG式中WUA是研究河段每单位长度的生境适宜性；CSF（VI，DI，CI，TI）是每个单元影响因子的组合适宜性（COMBINEDSUITABILITYFACTOR,CSF），VI是流速指标，DI是水深指标，CI是河道指标（包括基质和覆盖物），TI是温度指标；AI是长度为有效断面距离的每个单元水平面积。WHEREWUAISHABITATSUITABILITYINDEXOFEACHUNITLENGTHFORTHERESEARCHSECTIONS,CSF（VI，DI，CI，TI）ISTHECOMBINEDSUITABILITYFACTORCSFOFEACHUNIT,WITHVIISVELOCITYINDICATORS,DIISDEPTHINDICATORS,CIISRIVERINDICATORSINCLUDINGMATRIXANDCOVERING,TIISTEMPERATUREINDICATORSANDAIISUNITAREACORRESPONDINGTOLENGTHFOREFFECTIVESECTIONDISTANCE3梯级水库多目标生态调度模型的建立MODELOFMULTIOBJECTIVEECOLOGICALDISPATCHOFCASCADERESERVOIRS1）目标函数THEOBJECTIVEFUNCTION水库生态调度以水库调度所产生的生态环境效益、社会效益和经济效益等的综合效益最大为目标函数，将梯级水库多目标优化决策模型描述如下AMODELOFMULTIOBJECTIVEECOLOGICALDISPATCHOFCASCADERESERVOIRSTAKESMAXIMUMSOFECOLOGICALENVIRONMENTALBENEFITS,SOCIALANDECONOMICBENEFITSASTHEOBJECTIVEFUNCTIONANDOPTIMIZATIONDECISIONMAKINGMODELISDESCRIPTEDASFOLLOWS（2）12MAX,0NWEXXXSST式中EIX为第I个综合利用目标，包括生态环境、社会和经济效益等目标；X是所有自变量组成的向量；N为综合利用目标的个数；S为所有综合利用要求的约束条件集合。WHEREEIXISCOMPREHENSIVEUTILIZATIONGOALSOFI,INCLUDINGECOLOGICALENVIRONMENT,SOCIALANDECONOMICBENEFITS,XISAVECTORCONSISTEDOFALLTHEINDEPENDENTVARIABLES,NISTHENUMBEROFGOALSFORTHECOMPREHENSIVEUTILIZATION,ANDSISTHECONSTRAINTSETOFREQUIREMENTS（1）生态环境效益最大化MAXIMIZATIONOFECOLOGICALENVIRONMENTALBENEFITS生态效益最大化可以用生态缺水量最小这一目标体现，即THEGOALOFMAXIMUMECOLOGICALBENEFITSCANBEEMBODIEDBYTHEMINIMUMECOLOGICALWATERDEFICITSASTHEFOLLOWINGFORMULA（3）1,MIN1MIN0NTITITITMINEQSDT式中E1为生态缺水量（M3）；为第I个电站在第T时段发电流量（M3/S）；为,IT,ITS第I个电站在第T时段弃水流量（M3/S）；QDMIN为某时段为满足生态要求的电站的最小下泄生态流量限制（M3/S）；为每个计算时段长度（S）；T为年内计算总时段数；N为梯级电T站总数。WHEREE1ISTHEECOLOGICALWATERDEFICITSM3,DENOTESPOWERFLOWINPERIODTOF,ITQHYDROPOWERSTATIONI（M3/S）,DENOTESABANDONWATERFLOWINPERIODTOFHYDROPOWERSTATION,ITSI（M3/S）,QDMINDENOTESECOLOGICALFLOWRESTRICTIONSTOMEETTHEECOLOGICALREQUIREMENTSINACERTAINPERIOD（M3/S）,DENOTESCOMPUTINGTIMELENGTHOFEACHPERIODS,TDENOTESTHETNUMBEROFCOMPUTINGPERIODOFTHEYEARANDNDENOTESTHENUMBEROFCASCADERESERVOIRS（2）社会效益最大化MAXIMIZATIONOFSOCIALBENEFITS水库社会效益通常包括防洪效益和供水效益。SOCIALBENEFITSOFTHERESERVOIROFTENINCLUDEFLOODCONTROLANDWATERSUPPLYBENEFITS防洪效益最大化可以用超标水量最小这一目标体现，即THEGOALOFMAXIMUMFLOODCONTROLBENEFITSCANBEEMBODIEDBYTHEMINIMUMEXCESSIVEWATERASTHEFOLLOWINGFORMULA（4）2,MAX1MAX0NTITITITMINEQSDT式中E2为超标水量（M3）；QDMAX为某时段水库下游的防洪安全下泄流量（M3/S）；其它符号意义同前。WHEREE2ISTHEEXCESSIVEWATERM3,QDMAXDENOTESTHEFLOODCONTROLSAFETYFLOWINACERTAINPERIOD（M3/S）ANDOTHERSYMBOLICMEANINGSWITHTHEFORMER供水效益WATERSUPPLYBENEFITS供水效益最大化可以用供水缺量最小这一目标体现，即THEGOALOFMAXIMUMWATERSUPPLYBENEFITSCANBEEMBODIEDBYTHEMINIMUMAMOUNTOFLACKOFWATERSUPPLYASTHEFOLLOWINGFORMULA（5）3,MIN1IN0NTITITMINEG式中E3为供水缺量（M3）；GI,T为水库某时段的供水量（M3）；GMIN为水库满足某时段工业、农业、生活取水的最小供水量（M3）；其它符号意义同前。WHEREE3ISTHEAMOUNTOFLACKOFWATERSUPPLYM3,GI,TDENOTESRESERVOIRWATERSUPPLYINACERTAINPERIODOFTIME（M3/S）,GMINDENOTESMINIMUMAMOUNTOFWATERSUPPLYMEETINGDEMANDSOFINDUSTRY,AGRICULTUREANDDAILYLIFEINACERTAINPERIODTIMEANDOTHERSYMBOLICMEANINGSWITHTHEFORMER（3）经济效益最大化MAXIMIZATIONOFECONOMICBENEFITS经济效益最大化以梯级电站发电收入最大化体现，即THEGOALOFMAXIMUMECONOMICBENEFITSCANBEEMBODIEDBYTHEMAXIMUMPOWERGENERATIONINCOMEOFCASCADERESERVOIRSASTHEFOLLOWINGFORMULA（6）4,1NTITITTITMAXEAQHM式中E4为梯级电站发电收入（元）；为第I个电站出力系数；为第I个电站I,IT在第T时段平均发电净水头（M）；为第T时段小时数（H）；为第T时段梯级电站上TT网电价（元/MWH），其它符号意义同前。WHEREE4ISPOWERGENERATIONINCOMEYUAN,DENOTESOUTPUTCOEFFICIENTOFHYDROPOWERIASTATIONI,DENOTESAVERAGEWATERHEADOFPOWERGENERATIONINPERIODTOFHYDROPOWERSTATION,THI（M）,DENOTESNUMBEROFHOURSINPERIODTH,DENOTESELECTRICITYPRICEOFCASCADETMTHYDROPOWERSTATIONINPERIODTYUAN/MWHANDOTHERSYMBOLICMEANINGSWITHTHEFORMER2）约束条件CONSTRAINTCONDITIONS梯级电站生态调度模型中的约束条件如下CONSTRAINTCONDITIONSOFTHECASCADERESERVOIRSECOLOGICALDISPATCHMODELARELISTEDASFOLLOWS（1）水量平衡约束CONSTRAINTOFWATERBALANCE对于单个电站来说，入库与出库的水量之差应等于蓄水量的变化量。FORASINGLEHYDROPOWERSTATION,THEDIFFERENCEBETWEENTHEINBOUNDANDOUTBOUNDAMOUNTSHALLBEEQUALTOTHECHANGEOFTHESTORAGECAPACITY（7）,1,VQSTTITITITITITQ式中为第I个电站第T时段末水库蓄水量（M3）；为第I个电站第T时段初,1IT,VIT水库蓄水量（M3）；为第I个电站第T时段入库流量（M3/S）。其它符号意义同前。,ITQWHEREDENOTESRESERVOIRSTORAGEATTHEENDOFPERIODTOFHYDROPOWERSTATION,1VITI（M3/S）,DENOTESRESERVOIRSTORAGEATTHEBEGINNINGOFPERIODTOFHYDROPOWERSTATION,ITI（M3/S）,DENOTESINBOUNDFLOWINPERIODTOFHYDROPOWERSTATIONI（M3/S）ANDOTHER,ITQSYMBOLICMEANINGSWITHTHEFORMER（2）上下游水力联系HYDRAULICCONNECTIONBETWEENTHEUPSTREAMANDDOWNSTREAM梯级水库之间的水力联系的主要内容是流量联系，即上游水电站的下泄流量加上、下游电站之间的区间流量成为下游水电站的来水。THEHYDRAULICCONNECTIONSBETWEENCASCADERESERVOIRSMAINLYFOCUSONFLOW,THATIS,DISCHARGEFLOWOFTHEUPSTREAMRESERVOIRPLUSINTERVALINFLOWFLOWBETWEENUPSTREAMANDDOWNSTREAMRESERVOIREQUALSINFLOWFLOWOFTHEDOWNSTREAMRESERVOIR（8）,1,1,ITITITITQQSQ式中为第个水库与第个水库间在第T时段的区间来水流量（M3/S）。其1,ITQI它符号意义同前。WHEREDENOTESINTERVALINFLOWFLOWBETWEENRESERVOIRI1ANDRESERVOIRISTORAGEIN1,ITPERIODT（M3/S）ANDOTHERSYMBOLICMEANINGSWITHTHEFORMER3水库蓄水量约束CONSTRAINTOFRESERVOIRSTORAGE（9）,MIN,MAXVTTTITIT式中为第I个电站第T时段应保证的水库最小蓄水量（M3）；为第I个,MINVT,MAXVIT电站第T时段允许的水库最大蓄水量（M3）。其它符号意义同前。WHEREDENOTESMINIMUMGUARANTEEDRESERVOIRSTORAGEINPERIODTOFHYDROPOWER,INTSTATIONI（M3）,DENOTESMAXIMUMGUARANTEEDRESERVOIRSTORAGEINPERIODTOFHYDROPOWER,AXITSTATIONI（M3）ANDOTHERSYMBOLICMEANINGSWITHTHEFORMER（4）电站过机流量约束CONSTRAINTOFPOWERFLOW（10）,MIN,MAXQTTTITITQQ式中为第I个电站第T时段最小允许过机流量（M3/S）；为第I个电站,MINTQ,MAXITQ第T时段最大允许过机流量（M3/S）。其他符号意义同前。WHEREDENOTESMINIMUMALLOWEDPOWERFLOWINPERIODTOFHYDROPOWERSTATION,INTI（M3/S）,DENOTESMAXIMUMALLOWEDPOWERFLOWINPERIODTOFHYDROPOWERSTATION,MAXITQI（M3/S）ANDOTHERSYMBOLICMEANINGSWITHTHEFORMER（5）电站出力约束CONSTRAINTOFPOWEROUTPUT（11）TTHQAMAX,MIN,ITITINN式中为第I个电站的允许的最小出力（MW，取决于水轮机的种类与特性）；,MINN为第I个电站允许的最大出力（MW，当某电站无机组检修计划时，最大出力等于其,AXI装机容量）。其他符号意义同前。WHEREDENOTESMINIMUMALLOWEDOUTPUTOFHYDROPOWERSTATIONI（MW,DEPENDSON,MINTHETYPESANDCHARACTERISTICSOFHYDRAULICTURBINE）,DENOTESMAXIMUMALLOWEDOUTPUTOF,MAXINHYDROPOWERSTATIONI（MW,MAXIMUMOUTPUTISEQUALTOITSINSTALLEDCAPACITYWITHOUTOVERHAULPLAN）ANDOTHERSYMBOLICMEANINGSWITHTHEFORMER（6）非负条件约束CONSTRAINTOFNONNEGATIVECONDITION上述所有变量均为非负变量（0）。ALLTHEVARIABLESLISTEDABOVEARENONNEGATIVE03）求解算法目前，用于求解梯级水电站优化问题的方法主要有神经网络方法、逐步优化算法（POA算法）、遗传算法和动态规划法等11。其中POA算法适合于解决由数个有调节能力水库组成的串联电站群的优化调度问题，且已在我国许多水电站优化调度中进行了成功的应用，因此本次模拟生态调度可采用POA算法进行求解。ATPRESENT,THEMETHODSFORSOLVINGTHEOPTIMIZATIONPROBLEMOFCASCADERESERVOIRSMAINLYINCLUDENEURALNETWORKS,PROGRESSIVEOPTIMALITYALGORITHMPOA,GENETICALGORITHMSANDDYNAMICPROGRAMMING,ETC11THEPOAALGORITHMISSUITABLEFORSOLVINGOPTIMALSCHEDULINGPROBLEMCOMPOSEDOFASERIESOFHYDROPOWERSTATIONSWITHREGULATIONCAPACITYANDHASBEENSUCCESSFULLYUSEDINMANYHYDROPOWERSTATIONSINCHINATHEREFORETHESIMULATIONSCHEDULINGISSOLVEDWITHPOA4实例计算结果及分析CALCULATIONANDANALYSIS本文以我国西南地区某流域为例进行生态调度计算，以说明模型的优化效果，该流域目前已建有4座梯级电站，按自上而下的顺序，以电站、表示，其中电站为龙头电站，具有年调节能力，电站、具备季调节能力，为径流式电站，无调节能力。INTHISPAPERWESELECTABASININSOUTHWESTCHINAASANEXAMPLEFORECOLOGICALSCHEDULINGCALCULATIONTOSHOWOPTIMIZATIONEFFECTSOFTHEMODELTHEBASINCURRENTLYHASBUILTFOURCASCADEHYDROPOWERSTATIONS,INTOPDOWNORDER,NAMEDASSTATION,AND,WHERESTATIONISTHELEADINGSTATIONWITHANNUALADJUSTMENTCAPACITY,STATIONANDARESTATIONSWITHSEASONALADJUSTMENTCAPACITY,ANDSTATIONISRUNOFFTYPESTATIONWITHNOREGULATIONCAPACITY根据实际调查，鱼类A、B均为流域内重要经济鱼类，且B为该流域特有物种，以这两种鱼类作为本流域的典型指示物种。鱼类A属非洄游性鱼类，电站下游有鱼类A的产卵场；鱼类B属洄游性鱼类，洄游范围为电站下游至河口，本文选定典型鱼类A、B对流量较为敏感的电站、下游河段作为本文研究的典型鱼类对流量较为敏感的河段断面，以河段A、B表示。ACCORDINGTOTHESURVEY,FISHAANDBARESELECTEDASTYPICALINDICATORSPECIESOFTHERIVERBASINFORTHEYARETHEIMPORTANTECONOMICFISHSTOCKSINTHEWATERSHEDANDFISHBISENDEMICSPECIESFISHAISNONMIGRATORYFISHOFTHEGENUSOFFISHWITHITSSPAWNINGBEDINLOWERREACHOFSTATIONFISHBISMIGRATORYFISHWITHITSMIGRATORYRANGEFROMLOWERREACHOFSTATIONTOTHEESTUARYLOWERREACHESOFSTATIONANDARESELECTEDASTYPICALFISHSENSITIVERIVERSECTIONSNAMEDASSECTIONAANDB1）物理栖息地模型确定生态流量ECOLOGICALFLOWOFPHYSICALHABITATSIMULATIONMODEL对鱼类A、B的生存习性进行详细调查后发现A的产卵期在每年的123月之间，最适宜的流速是1014M/S，水深是0513M，温度是1622；育幼期在每年的48月之间，最适宜的流速是0512M/S，水深是0530M，温度是2030；成长期在每年的911月之间，最适宜的流速是0620M/S，水深是1035M，温度是1525。AFTERDETAILEDINVESTIGATIONSOFTHEFISHSURVIVALHABIT,WEFINDTHATTHESPAWNINGPERIODOFFISHAISBETWEENDECEMBEROFTHEYEARTOMARCHOFTHENEXTYEAR,WITHTHEMOSTSUITABLEFLOWRATEIS10TO14M/S,WATERDEPTHIS05TO13MANDTHETEMPERATUREIS16TO22BREEDINGPERIODBETWEENISBETWEENAPRILTOAUGUSTOFTHEYEAR,WITHTHEMOSTSUITABLEFLOWRATEIS05TO12M/S,WATERDEPTHIS05TO30MANDTHETEMPERATUREIS20TO30GROWTHPERIODISBETWEENSEPTEMBERTONOVEMBER,WITHTHEMOSTSUITABLEFLOWRATEIS06TO20M/S,WATERDEPTHIS10TO35MANDTHETEMPERATUREIS15TO25B的产卵期在每年的47月之间，最适宜的流速是1830M/S，水深是1525M，温度是1520；育幼期在每年的810月之间，最适宜的流速是1018M/S，水深是2030M，温度是1522；成长期在每年的113月之间，最适宜的流速是1520M/S，水深是0535M，温度是515。THESPAWNINGPERIODOFFISHBISBETWEENAPRILTOJULYOFTHEYEAR,WITHTHEMOSTSUITABLEFLOWRATEIS18TO30M/S,WATERDEPTHIS15TO25MANDTHETEMPERATUREIS15TO20BREEDINGPERIODBETWEENISBETWEENAUGUSTTOOCTOBEROFTHEYEAR,WITHTHEMOSTSUITABLEFLOWRATEIS10TO18M/S,WATERDEPTHIS20TO30MANDTHETEMPERATUREIS15TO22GROWTHPERIODISBETWEENNOVEMBEROFTHEYEARTOMARCHOFTHENEXTYEAR,WITHTHEMOSTSUITABLEFLOWRATEIS15TO20M/S,WATERDEPTHIS05TO35MANDTHETEMPERATUREIS5TO15考虑到水温不仅与流量相关，更主要的是与气温以及天气情况关系密切，且变化规律十分复杂，因此本文仅考虑鱼类对水深、流速的喜好，列出生境适宜性指数表及曲线图如表1、图1、图2。WATERTEMPERATUREISNOTONLYASSOCIATEDWITHTHEFLOW,BUTCLOSELYRELATEDTOTEMPERATUREANDWEATHERCONDITIONSANDITSVARIATIONISCOMPLEXSOTHISPAPERCONSIDERSONLYTHEFISHSPREFERENCESTOWATERDEPTHANDVELOCITYANDTHEHABITATSUITABILITYINDEXTABLEANDGRAPHSARESHOWNINTABLE1,FIG1ANDFIG2TABLE1HABITATSUITABILITYINDEXOFFISHAANDFISHBTYPICALFISHLIFEPERIODVELOCITY（M/S）THESUITABLEWEIGHTSWATERDEPTH（M）THESUITABLEWEIGHTSMONTH00001014105131SPAWNINGPERIOD18030123002000512105301BREEDINGPERIOD18045048003000620110351AGROWTHPERIOD305091100001830115251SPAWNINGPERIOD40504700001018120301BREEDINGPERIOD35055081000000520105351BGROWTHPERIOD350550113SPAWNINGPERIODBREEDINGPERIODGROWTHPERIODFIG1HABITATSUITABILITYCURVEOFFISHASPAWNINGPERIODBREEDINGPERIODGROWTHPERIODFIG2HABITATSUITABILITYCURVEOFFISHB将A和B产卵期、育幼期、成长期的流速、水深适宜性曲线输入到PHABSIM模型中，计算目标鱼类在各研究河段代表性断面的栖息地加权可利用面积（WUA），结果如图3、图4。SUITABILITYCURVESOFVELOCITYANDDEPTHFORAANDBINSPAWNING,BREEDINGANDGROWTHPERIODAREENTEREDINPHABSIMMODELINGANDHABITATWEIGHTEDUSABLEAREASWUAOFTARGETFISHSTOCKSINTHEREPRESENTATIVECROSSSECTIONCANBECALCULATEDRESULTSARESHOWNINFIG3ANDFIG4图3研究河段A中鱼类A各生长阶段流量WUA关系图FIG3RELATIONSHIPBETWEENWUAANDFLOWRATEFORDIFFERENTPERIODSOFTHEFISHAINSECTIONAFIG4RELATIONSHIPBETWEENWUAANDFLOWRATEFORDIFFERENTPERIODSOFTHEFISHBINSECTIONB查阅相关参考文献可知，根据流量WUA关系图确定生态流量的判别方式有许多种，不同的学者有不同的看法，大多数专家学者建议可依据当地的河流型态来选择适宜的评估方法和数值基准。RELEVANTREFERENCELITERATURESSHOWTHATTHEREAREMANYWAYSTODETERMINETHEECOLOGICALFLOWACCORDINGTOTHERELATIONSHIPBETWEENFLOWRATEANDWUADIFFERENTSCHOLARSHAVEDIFFERENTOPINIONSANDMOSTEXPERTSSUGGESTCHOOSINGTHEAPPROPRIATEASSESSMENTMETHODSANDNUMERICALBENCHMARKSBASEDONTHELOCALRIVERMORPHOLOGY当以某种生物生态需水量需求作为下泄流量的唯一目标时，可选择该物种在不同流量条件下生境模拟结果表中的WUA（加权可利用面积）最大值所对应的流量10。WHENTAKINGSOMESPECIESECOLOGICALWATERDEMANDSASTHESOLEAIMOFTHEDISCHARGEPROCESS,WECANSELECTTHEFLOWRATEOFTHESPECIESCORRESPONDINGTOMAXIMUMWUAINHABITATSIMULATIONRESULTSTABLEUNDERDIFFERENTFLOWCONDITIONS10但是这样得出的结果仅仅是理论意义上的一种数值，会与现实的情况存在一定的偏差