计量经济学论文范文eviews

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薄薂袇芄芄螇螃羁莆薀虿羀蒈螆羈罿膈薈羄羈莀袄袀羇蒃蚇螆羇薅蒀肅羆芅蚅羁羅莇蒈袇肄葿蚃螃肃腿蒆虿肂芁蚂肇肁蒄蒄羃肁薆螀衿肀芆薃螅聿莈螈蚁肈蒀薁羀膇膀螇袆膆节蕿螂膅莄螅螈膅薇蚈肆膄芆蒀羂膃荿蚆袈膂蒁葿螄膁膁蚄蚀芀芃蒇罿芀莅蚂袅艿蒈蒅袁芈芇螁螇芇莀薄肅芆蒂蝿羁芅薄薂袇芄芄螇螃羁莆薀虿羀蒈螆羈罿膈薈羄羈莀袄袀羇蒃蚇螆羇薅蒀肅羆芅蚅羁羅莇蒈袇肄葿蚃螃肃腿蒆虿肂芁蚂肇肁蒄蒄羃肁薆螀衿肀芆薃螅聿莈螈蚁肈蒀薁羀膇膀螇袆膆节蕿螂膅莄螅螈膅薇蚈肆膄芆蒀羂膃荿蚆袈膂蒁葿螄膁膁蚄蚀芀芃蒇罿芀莅蚂袅艿蒈蒅袁芈芇螁螇芇莀薄肅芆蒂蝿羁芅薄薂袇芄芄螇螃羁莆薀虿羀蒈螆羈罿膈薈羄羈莀袄袀羇蒃蚇螆羇薅蒀肅羆芅蚅羁羅莇蒈袇肄葿蚃螃肃腿蒆虿肂芁蚂肇肁蒄蒄羃肁薆螀衿肀芆薃螅聿莈螈蚁肈蒀薁羀膇膀螇袆膆节蕿螂膅莄螅螈膅薇蚈肆膄芆蒀羂膃荿蚆袈膂蒁葿螄膁膁蚄蚀芀芃蒇罿芀莅蚂袅艿蒈蒅袁芈芇螁螇芇莀薄肅芆蒂蝿羁芅薄薂袇芄芄螇螃羁莆薀虿羀蒈螆羈罿膈薈羄羈莀袄袀羇蒃蚇螆羇薅蒀肅羆芅蚅羁羅莇蒈袇肄葿蚃螃肃腿蒆虿肂芁蚂肇肁蒄蒄羃肁薆螀衿肀芆薃螅聿莈螈蚁肈蒀薁羀膇膀螇袆膆节蕿螂膅莄螅螈膅薇蚈肆膄芆蒀羂膃荿蚆袈膂蒁葿螄膁膁蚄蚀芀芃蒇罿芀莅蚂袅艿蒈蒅袁芈芇螁螇芇莀薄肅芆蒂蝿羁芅薄薂袇芄芄螇螃羁莆薀虿羀蒈螆羈罿膈薈羄羈莀袄袀羇蒃蚇螆羇薅蒀肅羆芅蚅羁羅莇蒈袇肄葿蚃螃肃腿蒆虿肂芁蚂肇肁蒄蒄羃肁薆螀衿肀芆薃螅聿莈螈蚁肈蒀薁羀膇膀螇袆膆节蕿螂膅莄螅螈膅薇蚈肆膄芆蒀羂膃荿蚆袈膂蒁葿螄膁膁蚄蚀芀芃蒇罿芀莅蚂袅艿蒈蒅袁芈芇螁螇芇莀薄肅芆蒂蝿羁芅薄薂袇芄芄螇螃羁莆薀虿羀蒈螆羈罿膈薈羄羈莀袄袀羇蒃蚇螆羇薅蒀肅羆芅蚅羁羅莇蒈袇肄葿蚃螃肃腿蒆虿肂芁蚂肇肁蒄蒄羃肁薆螀衿肀芆薃螅聿莈螈蚁肈蒀薁羀膇膀螇袆膆节蕿螂膅莄螅螈膅薇蚈肆膄芆蒀羂膃荿蚆袈膂蒁葿螄膁膁蚄蚀芀芃蒇罿芀莅蚂袅艿蒈蒅袁芈芇螁螇芇莀薄肅芆蒂蝿羁芅薄薂袇芄芄螇螃羁莆薀虿羀蒈螆羈罿膈薈羄羈莀袄袀羇蒃蚇螆羇薅蒀肅羆芅蚅羁羅莇蒈袇肄葿蚃螃肃腿蒆虿肂芁蚂肇肁蒄蒄羃肁薆螀衿肀芆薃螅聿莈螈蚁肈蒀薁羀膇膀螇袆膆节蕿螂膅莄螅螈膅薇蚈肆膄芆蒀羂膃荿蚆袈膂蒁葿螄膁膁蚄蚀芀芃蒇罿芀莅蚂袅艿蒈蒅袁芈芇螁螇芇莀薄肅芆蒂蝿羁芅薄薂袇芄芄螇螃羁莆薀虿羀蒈螆羈罿膈薈羄羈莀袄袀羇蒃蚇螆羇薅蒀肅羆芅蚅羁羅莇蒈袇肄葿蚃螃肃腿蒆虿肂芁蚂肇肁蒄蒄羃肁薆螀衿肀芆薃螅聿莈螈蚁肈蒀薁羀膇膀螇袆膆节蕿螂膅莄螅螈膅薇蚈肆膄芆蒀羂膃荿蚆袈膂蒁葿螄膁膁蚄蚀芀芃蒇罿芀莅蚂袅艿蒈蒅袁芈芇螁螇芇莀薄肅芆蒂蝿羁芅薄薂袇芄芄螇螃羁莆薀虿羀蒈螆羈罿膈薈羄羈莀袄袀羇蒃蚇螆羇薅蒀肅羆芅蚅羁羅莇蒈袇肄葿蚃螃肃腿蒆虿肂芁蚂肇肁蒄蒄羃肁薆螀衿肀芆薃螅聿莈螈蚁肈蒀薁羀膇膀螇袆我国财政收入影响因素分析班级09财政1班姓名李睿学号200909111023指导教师单海鹏完成时间2011年12月4日摘要对我国财政收入影响因素进行了定量分析，建立了数学模型，并提出了提高我国财政收入质量的政策建议。关键词财政收入实证分析影响因素一、引言财政收入对于国民经济的运行及社会发展具有重要影响。首先，它是一个国家各项收入得以实现的物质保证。一个国家财政收入规模大小往往是衡量其经济实力的重要标志。其次，财政收入是国家对经济实行宏观调控的重要经济杠杆。宏观调控的首要问题是社会总需求与总供给的平衡问题，实现社会总需求与总供给的平衡，包括总量上的平衡和结构上的平衡两个层次的内容。财政收入的杠杆既可通过增收和减收来发挥总量调控作用，也可通过对不同财政资金缴纳者的财政负担大小的调整，来发挥结构调整的作用。此外，财政收入分配也是调整国民收入初次分配格局，实现社会财富公平合理分配的主要工具。在我国，财政收入的主体是税收收入。因此，在税收体制及政策不变的情况下，财政收入会随着经济繁荣而增加，随着经济衰退而下降。我国的财政收入主要包括税收、国有经济收入、债务收入以及其他收入四种形式，因此，财政收入会受到不同因素的影响。从国民经济部门结构看，财政收入又表现为来自各经济部门的收入。财政收入的部门构成就是在财政收入中，由来自国民经济各部门的收入所占的不同比例来表现财政收入来源的结构，它体现国民经济各部门与财政收入的关系。我国财政收入主要来自于工业、农业、商业、交通运输和服务业等部门。因此，令财政收入Y（亿元）为被解释变量，总税收收入X1（亿元）、国内生产总值X2（亿元）、其他收入X3（亿元）、就业人口总数为X4（万人）为解释变量，据此建立回归模型。二、数据收集从2010中国统计年鉴得到19902009年每年的财政收入、总税收收入、国内生产总值工、其他收入和就业人口总数的统计数据如下OBS1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008财政收入Y总税收收入X1国内生产总值X2其他收入X3就业人口总数X42937131494834833743489552181624227407998651149875951144408133952316386041890364217152526396473164929387602513217861330352821862990173296914255351268860380469098282340492628106825812581511530138176364520017312416568287785434804354562197542237918667821781526923535333948197960793771176678973844023896771992146109655212033271358228159878318493742163144265810331404542995324012651519104280183961972466682383339254394498121811328741691932148322707833683854457965552466474965491661526680867455680656895069820706377139472085730257374074432752007582576400769907748020096851835952159340506972157277995三、模型建立1、散点图分析2、单因素或多变量间关系分析YX1X2X3X4Y109989134611478539080479564415081184694478293492099347904520993740267712847180459087701448860855637734708561835802150381098360271980984935296509862411656081094033461X147853X29080418469X3795644478228471X44150893492804590810940334650381099891346110993479045208770144886098360271980993740267708556377347098493529650856183580209862411656由散点图分析和变量间关系分析可以看出被解释变量财政收入Y与解释变量总税收收入X1、国内生产总值X2、其他收入X3、就业人口总数X4呈线性关系，因此该回归模型设为Y01X12X23X34X43、模型预模拟由EVIEWS做OLS回归得到结果DEPENDENTVARIABLEYMETHODLEASTSQUARESDATE11/14/11TIME1751SAMPLE19902009INCLUDEDOBSERVATIONS20VARIABLECX1X2X3X4RSQUAREDADJUSTEDRSQUAREDSEOFREGRESSIONSUMSQUAREDRESIDLOGLIKELIHOODDURBINWATSONSTATCOEFFICIENT72995231062802000177008733690115975STDERROR16918140021108000452801198060026580TSTATISTIC43146145034972039100772898524363160PROB00006000000701300000000062055675199870312388861263779166897900000000999978MEANDEPENDENTVAR0999972SDDEPENDENTVAR1066264AKAIKEINFOCRITERION1705379SCHWARZCRITERION1188886FSTATISTIC1496517PROBFSTATISTICY72995231062802X10001770X20873369X30115975X443146145034972039100772898524363160R20999978R0999972F1668979DW14965172四、模型检验1计量经济学意义检验多重共线性检验与解决求相关系数矩阵，得到CORRELATIONMATRIXY109989134611X1478531X290804X379564X4415080998913461109934790452087701448860983602719809937402677085563773470984935296547853099347904520993740267790804795644150818469447829349218469128471804594478228471150381934928045908109403346503811085618358020986241165608770144886085563773470856183580209836027198098493529650986241165608109403346发现模型存在多重共线性。接下来运用逐步回归法对模型进行修正将各个解释变量分别加入模型,进行一元回归作Y与X1的回归，结果如下DEPENDENTVARIABLEYMETHODLEASTSQUARESDATE11/22/11TIME2302SAMPLE19902009INCLUDEDOBSERVATIONS20VARIABLECX1RSQUAREDADJUSTEDRSQUAREDSEOFREGRESSIONSUMSQUAREDRESIDLOGLIKELIHOODDURBINWATSONSTATCOEFFICIENT75566101144994STDERROR14523300005760TSTATISTIC52030941987931PROB00001000002055675199870315097651519722395187000000000999545MEANDEPENDENTVAR0999519SDDEPENDENTVAR4381521AKAIKEINFOCRITERION3455590SCHWARZCRITERION1489765FSTATISTIC0475046PROBFSTATISTIC作Y与X2的回归，结果如下DEPENDENTVARIABLEYMETHODLEASTSQUARESDATE11/22/11TIME2306SAMPLE19902009INCLUDEDOBSERVATIONS20VARIABLECX2COEFFICIENT52220770207689STDERROR86120670005548TSTATISTIC60636743743267PROB0000000000RSQUAREDADJUSTEDRSQUAREDSEOFREGRESSIONSUMSQUAREDRESIDLOGLIKELIHOODDURBINWATSONSTAT0987317MEANDEPENDENTVAR0986612SDDEPENDENTVAR2312610AKAIKEINFOCRITERION96267005SCHWARZCRITERION1822478FSTATISTIC0188013PROBFSTATISTIC205567519987031842478185243514012050000000作Y与X3的回归，结果如下DEPENDENTVARIABLEYMETHODLEASTSQUARESDATE11/22/11TIME2308SAMPLE19902009INCLUDEDOBSERVATIONS20VARIABLECX3RSQUAREDADJUSTEDRSQUAREDSEOFREGRESSIONSUMSQUAREDRESIDLOGLIKELIHOODDURBINWATSONSTATCOEFFICIENT26078791003073STDERROR77399880294311TSTATISTIC33693583408209PROB00034000002055675199870318609711870929116158900000000984740MEANDEPENDENTVAR0983893SDDEPENDENTVAR2536645AKAIKEINFOCRITERION116E08SCHWARZCRITERION1840971FSTATISTIC1194389PROBFSTATISTIC作Y与X4的回归，结果如下DEPENDENTVARIABLEYMETHODLEASTSQUARESDATE11/22/11TIME2308SAMPLE19902009INCLUDEDOBSERVATIONS20VARIABLECX4RSQUAREDADJUSTEDRSQUAREDSEOFREGRESSIONSUMSQUAREDRESIDLOGLIKELIHOODDURBINWATSONSTATCOEFFICIENT27295934097403STDERROR37203650518467TSTATISTIC73368947902918PROB00000000002055675199870321294922139449624561100000000776276MEANDEPENDENTVAR0763846SDDEPENDENTVAR9712824AKAIKEINFOCRITERION170E09SCHWARZCRITERION2109492FSTATISTIC0157356PROBFSTATISTIC依据可决系数最大的原则选取X1作为进入回归模型的第一个解释变量,再依次将其余变量分别代入回归得作Y与X1、X2的回归，结果如下DEPENDENTVARIABLEYMETHODLEASTSQUARESDATE11/22/11TIME2309SAMPLE19902009INCLUDEDOBSERVATIONS20VARIABLECX1X2RSQUAREDADJUSTEDRSQUAREDSEOFREGRESSIONSUMSQUAREDRESIDLOGLIKELIHOODDURBINWATSONSTATCOEFFICIENT188428512815940025055STDERROR239074300494720009029TSTATISTIC078815925905682774908PROB0441500000001302055675199870314824051497341271182000000000999687MEANDEPENDENTVAR0999650SDDEPENDENTVAR3740345AKAIKEINFOCRITERION2378330SCHWARZCRITERION1452405FSTATISTIC0683510PROBFSTATISTIC作Y与X1、X3的回归，结果如下DEPENDENTVARIABLEYMETHODLEASTSQUARESDATE11/22/11TIME2310SAMPLE19902009INCLUDEDOBSERVATIONS20VARIABLECX1X3RSQUAREDADJUSTEDRSQUAREDSEOFREGRESSIONSUMSQUAREDRESIDLOGLIKELIHOODDURBINWATSONSTATCOEFFICIENT351105409928131356936STDERROR831505300187070165109TSTATISTIC422252753071968218410PROB0000600000000002055675199870313593611374297928393300000000999908MEANDEPENDENTVAR0999898SDDEPENDENTVAR2021735AKAIKEINFOCRITERION6948599SCHWARZCRITERION1329361FSTATISTIC1177765PROBFSTATISTIC作Y与X1、X4的回归，结果如下DEPENDENTVARIABLEYMETHODLEASTSQUARESDATE11/22/11TIME2310SAMPLE19902009INCLUDEDOBSERVATIONS20VARIABLECX1X4RSQUAREDADJUSTEDRSQUAREDSEOFREGRESSIONSUMSQUAREDRESIDLOGLIKELIHOODDURBINWATSONSTATCOEFFICIENT118534611858860186645STDERROR182452200066450026984TSTATISTIC649674817846086917003PROB0000000000000002055675199870313858861400822712069000000000999881MEANDEPENDENTVAR0999867SDDEPENDENTVAR2308464AKAIKEINFOCRITERION9059310SCHWARZCRITERION1355886FSTATISTIC1459938PROBFSTATISTIC在满足经济意义和可决系数的条件下选取X3作为进入模型的第二个解释变量,再次进行回归则作Y与X1、X3、X2的回归，结果如下DEPENDENTVARIABLEYMETHODLEASTSQUARESDATE11/22/11TIME2313SAMPLE19902009INCLUDEDOBSERVATIONS20VARIABLECX1X3X2RSQUAREDADJUSTEDRSQUAREDSEOFREGRESSIONSUMSQUAREDRESIDLOGLIKELIHOODCOEFFICIENT7604458108592412108530014073STDERROR1001724002980101334440003944TSTATISTIC0759137364388190738773567901PROB04588000000000000026205567519987031310826133074110460290999949MEANDEPENDENTVAR0999939SDDEPENDENTVAR1555183AKAIKEINFOCRITERION3869750SCHWARZCRITERION1270826FSTATISTICDURBINWATSONSTAT1196933PROBFSTATISTIC0000000作Y与X1、X3、X4的回归，结果如下DEPENDENTVARIABLEYMETHODLEASTSQUARESDATE11/22/11TIME2313SAMPLE19902009INCLUDEDOBSERVATIONS20VARIABLECX1X3X4RSQUAREDADJUSTEDRSQUAREDSEOFREGRESSIONSUMSQUAREDRESIDLOGLIKELIHOODDURBINWATSONSTATCOEFFICIENT6781764106864208910690107639STDERROR1024745001451401079490015451TSTATISTIC6618003736276482545516966675PROB000000000000000000002055675199870312299001249814234970900000000999977MEANDEPENDENTVAR0999973SDDEPENDENTVAR1037654AKAIKEINFOCRITERION1722761SCHWARZCRITERION1189900FSTATISTIC1451447PROBFSTATISTIC可见加入其余任何一个变量都会导致系数符号与经济意义不符,故最终修正后的回归模型为DEPENDENTVARIABLEYMETHODLEASTSQUARESDATE11/30/11TIME1218SAMPLE19902009INCLUDEDOBSERVATIONS20VARIABLECX1X3RSQUAREDADJUSTEDRSQUAREDSEOFREGRESSIONSUMSQUAREDRESIDLOGLIKELIHOODCOEFFICIENT351105409928131356936STDERROR831505300187070165109TSTATISTIC422252753071968218410PROB000060000000000205567519987031359361137429792839330999908MEANDEPENDENTVAR0999898SDDEPENDENTVAR2021735AKAIKEINFOCRITERION6948599SCHWARZCRITERION1329361FSTATISTICDURBINWATSONSTAT1177765PROBFSTATISTIC0000000Y35110540992813X11356936X3422252753071968218410R20999908R09998F9283933DW1177765982异方差检验与修正图示法EE与X1的散点图如下说明EE与X1存在单调递增型异方差性。EE与X3的散点图如下说明EE与X3存在单调递增型异方差性。GQ检验对20组数据剔除掉中间四组剩下的进行分组后，第一组（19901997）数据的回归结果DEPENDENTVARIABLEYMETHODLEASTSQUARESDATE11/30/11TIME1254SAMPLE19901997INCLUDEDOBSERVATIONS8VARIABLEX1X3CRSQUAREDADJUSTEDRSQUAREDCOEFFICIENT098412308515182834275STDERROR001625501566884536993TSTATISTIC605432054344720624703PROB000000002905596517979120998400999686MEANDEPENDENTVAR0999560SDDEPENDENTVARSEOFREGRESSIONSUMSQUAREDRESIDLOGLIKELIHOODDURBINWATSONSTAT4405899AKAIKEINFOCRITERION9705972SCHWARZCRITERION3975573FSTATISTIC1663630PROBFSTATISTIC1068893107187279475750000000残差平方和RSS19705972第二组（20022009）数据的回归结果DEPENDENTVARIABLEYMETHODLEASTSQUARESDATE11/30/11TIME1255SAMPLE20022009INCLUDEDOBSERVATIONS8VARIABLEX1X3CRSQUAREDADJUSTEDRSQUAREDSEOFREGRESSIONSUMSQUAREDRESIDLOGLIKELIHOODDURBINWATSONSTATCOEFFICIENT106640408472281184159STDERROR002774702151142618258TSTATISTIC384332139385034522698PROB0000000110000633982441186391613525941355573367050800000000999932MEANDEPENDENTVAR0999905SDDEPENDENTVAR1820047AKAIKEINFOCRITERION1656285SCHWARZCRITERION5110375FSTATISTIC1326122PROBFSTATISTIC残差平方和RSS21656285所以FRSS2/RSS11656285/9705972170646在给定5下查得临界值F0054,4639，FF0054,4因此否定两组子样方差相同的假设，从而该总体随机项存在递增异方差性。WHITE方法检验WHITEHETEROSKEDASTICITYTESTFSTATISTICOBSRSQUARED6142010PROBABILITY1241812PROBABILITY00039190014498TESTEQUATIONDEPENDENTVARIABLERESIDMETHODLEASTSQUARESDATE11/30/11TIME1321SAMPLE19902009INCLUDEDOBSERVATIONS20VARIABLECX1X1X3X3RSQUAREDADJUSTEDRSQUAREDSEOFREGRESSIONSUMSQUAREDRESIDLOGLIKELIHOODDURBINWATSONSTATCOEFFICIENT24856502057327000021223718130024073STDERROR19211307549127804E0578613230006568TSTATISTIC12938482725252263998230170673665230PROB02153001560018600087000233474300491560023922122417105614201000039190620906MEANDEPENDENTVAR0519815SDDEPENDENTVAR3406286AKAIKEINFOCRITERION174E10SCHWARZCRITERION2342212FSTATISTIC1560937PROBFSTATISTICNR220062090612418125下，临界值200549488拒绝同方差性修正COEFFICIENT314207409797581457291STDERROR436855000086220065922TSTATISTIC719248611363362210629PROB000000000000000272462774471171158127DEPENDENTVARIABLEYMETHODLEASTSQUARESDATE11/30/11TIME1429SAMPLE19902009INCLUDEDOBSERVATIONS20WEIGHTINGSERIES1/E1VARIABLECX1X3RSQUAREDADJUSTEDRSQUAREDSEOFREGRESSIONWEIGHTEDSTATISTICS0999999MEANDEPENDENTVAR0999999SDDEPENDENTVAR7391795AKAIKEINFOCRITERIONSUMSQUAREDRESID9288567SCHWARZCRITERION1173063LOGLIKELIHOOD1128127FSTATISTIC3138195DURBINWATSONSTAT0956075PROBFSTATISTIC0000000UNWEIGHTEDSTATISTICSRSQUARED0999902MEANDEPENDENTVAR2055675ADJUSTEDRSQUARED0999891SDDEPENDENTVAR1998703SEOFREGRESSION2090283SUMSQUAREDRESID7427782DURBINWATSONSTAT1365483Y31420740979758X11457291X3719248611363362210629R20999999R20999999F3138195DW1365483序列相关性检验从残差项E2与E21及E与时间T的关系图（如下）看，随机项呈现正序列相关性。Q统计量检验由图可以看出，存在一阶序列相关回归检验残差E2与E2（1）做回归得DEPENDENTVARIABLEEMETHODLEASTSQUARESDATE12/04/11TIME1521SAMPLEADJUSTED19912009INCLUDEDOBSERVATIONS19AFTERADJUSTMENTSVARIABLECE1RSQUAREDADJUSTEDRSQUAREDSEOFREGRESSIONSUMSQUAREDRESIDLOGLIKELIHOODDURBINWATSONSTATCOEFFICIENT16815250303570STDERROR45696110231114TSTATISTIC03679801313508PROB07174020652528519201125213505531360494172530302064640092138MEANDEPENDENTVAR0038734SDDEPENDENTVAR1971916AKAIKEINFOCRITERION6610366SCHWARZCRITERION1263025FSTATISTIC1776498PROBFSTATISTICE与E1、E2做回归得DEPENDENTVARIABLEEMETHODLEASTSQUARESDATE12/04/11TIME1524SAMPLEADJUSTED19922009INCLUDEDOBSERVATIONS18AFTERADJUSTMENTSVARIABLECE1E2RSQUAREDADJUSTEDRSQUAREDSEOFREGRESSIONSUMSQUAREDRESIDLOGLIKELIHOODDURBINWATSONSTATCOEFFICIENT744976004195640379894STDERROR462091202444750278641TSTATISTIC016121817161871363380PROB0874101067019291645940203134913527891367629178872702010430192570MEANDEPENDENTVAR0084912SDDEPENDENTVAR1943193AKAIKEINFOCRITERION5663997SCHWARZCRITERION1187510FSTATISTIC2055382PROBFSTATISTIC由上表明不存在序列相关性。DW检验由异方差检验修正后的结果Y31420740979758X1145