本科毕业论文-城镇化进程中碳排放量演进分析

LIAONINGNORMALUNIVERSITY（2015届）本科生毕业论文设计题目辽宁省城镇化进程中碳排放量演进分析学院城市与环境学院专业地理科学（师范）班级序号学号学生姓名指导教师2015年5月目录摘要（关键词）1ABSTRACTKEYWORDS1前言11研究内容111选题意义112国内研究情况113国外研究情况22数据来源与研究方法221指标选取222数据来源223模型选取324格兰杰因果关系检验33城镇化对碳排放的影响分析431城镇化水平对碳排放量的相关分析432不同因子对碳排放的影响分析4321人口总量对碳排放的影响4322城市化水平对碳排放的影响5323人均GDP对碳排放量的影响5324能源消费对碳排放的影响633城镇化进程与碳排放量之间单位根检验和格兰杰因果检验74对策建议及结论841对策建议8411改善生活方式，减少日常生活中的碳排放量8412调整能源结构，增加能源使用率9413执法部门协调，严格执法，加强监督9414公众参与碳排放量控制，共同保护环境942结论9参考文献10致谢11辽宁省城镇化进程中碳排放量演进分析摘要温室气体对环境的影响已经成为世界关注的焦点，而二氧化碳则是最主要的温室气体，同时也是城镇化的副产品。本文通过从人口规模、城市化率、人均GDP、能源生产与利用率等指标的考察，结合STIRPAT模型计算出各指标对碳排放的影响，用EVIEWS软件计算各指标对碳排放量影响的线性关系，同时运用格兰杰因果分析检验验证辽宁省城镇化水平对碳排放的作用，证明辽宁省城镇化是碳排放的格兰杰因果原因。最后根据现在我省环境状况及各指标的特点，提出辽宁省环境保护相应的对策及建议，为我省建设低碳经济提供意见。关键词碳排放；STIRPAT模型；格兰杰因果检验ABSTRACTTHEIMPACTOFGREENHOUSEGASESTOTHEENVIRONMENTHASBECOMETHEFOCUSOFWORLDATTENTION,WHILECARBONDIOXIDEISTHEMOSTIMPORTANTGREENHOUSEGAS,ANDITISABYPRODUCTOFURBANIZATIONINTHISPAPER,FROMTHEPOPULATIONSIZE,POPULATIONGROWTH,INDUSTRYDISTRIBUTION,THEENERGYPRODUCTIONANDUTILIZATIONINDEX,COMBININGTHESTIRPATMODELISCALCULATEDFOREACHINDEXINFLUENCEONCARBONEMISSIONS,USEEVIEWSSOFTWARETOCALCULATETHECORRESPONDINGCARBONEMISSIONSANDINTENSITYUSINGCORRELATIONANALYSISMETHODTOANALYZETHEINFLUENCINGFACTORSOFCHINASCARBONDIOXIDE,VERIFYTHEHYPOTHESISOFKUZNETSCURVEOFCARBONDIOXIDEINLIAONINGPROVINCEFINALLYACCORDINGTOTHECURRENTENVIRONMENTALSITUATIONINOURPROVINCE,ANDPUTSFORWARDTHECORRESPONDINGCOUNTERMEASUREANDTHESUGGESTION,FORTHECONSTRUCTIONOFLOWCARBONECONOMYINOURPROVINCETOPROVIDEADVICEKEYWORDSCARBONSTIRPATMODELGRANGERCAUSALITYTEST前言近些年，全球气候变暖已经成为世界各个国家面临的重大问题。基里巴斯是地球上最早迎接日出的地方，也是世界上唯一一个横跨南北两半球和东西两半球的国家。然而，随着全球气候变暖和海平面上升，在2010年4月30日，基里巴斯已有两座岛屿被海水吞噬，最高的地方仅高出海平面6英尺。2009年10月17日，马尔代夫内阁召开世界首次“水下内阁会议”，凸显全球变暖对这个国家的威胁。南太平洋上的美丽岛国图瓦卢很可能成为首个“沉没”的国家。该国气象局推算，50年之后，海平面将上升376厘米，这意味着图瓦卢至少将有60的国土彻底沉入海中。而碳作为气候变暖的主要气体，对它的研究理所当然的成为重点。1研究内容11选题意义对于辽宁省来说，伴随着城镇化进程，碳的排放量也越来越多。在城镇化过程中，人口的增长提高了城镇化率，与此同时，人口问题带来的产业分配及人口消费等问题也影响着碳排放。同样，城镇化增加了工厂建设，随之产生的能源消耗及能源利用也在很大程度上刺激着碳排放。我省碳排放量的急剧增加的主要诱导因素是经济的持续快速发展和能源的不断消耗，经济不能摆脱“高投入、高消耗、高排放”的粗放型经济增长方式，而“先污染，后治理”的理念也给生活带来了巨大压力，对我省的生态和气候环境都带来了不利的影响，也成为我国经济长期持续发展的绊脚石。因此本文从城镇化进程中各影响因素对碳排放的影响，分析辽宁省碳排放关键因素，并提出相应的解决对策，为辽宁省发展低碳经济提出合理意见。12国内研究情况张勇，张乐勤，包婷婷（2014）基于STIRPAT模型，运用因子主成分回归方法，研究了安徽省20002011年能源消费和碳排放之间的关系，并对城市化进程中碳排放的因素进行了定量的分析研究，结果显示城镇化进程中城镇区面积的扩大、及工业化水平提高大幅度地促进了能源的消耗，成为影响碳排放的主要因素1；马晓钰，李强谊，郭莹莹（2013）运用静态面板和动态面板结合的方法，估算了19992010年我国30个省区的二氧化碳的排放量，发现人口年龄结构、城市人口数量规模和城市化水平是促进我国二氧化碳排放的主要人口因素2；刘心，杨晨（2013）在环境库兹涅茨曲线的基础上,研究探索了辽宁省一年经济增长和碳排放量与能源消耗之间的动态关系，结果表明辽宁省GDP的增长促进了能源的消耗以及碳排放量的增加3；张凤武，刘聪聪2012通过对黑龙江省19902009年GDP和碳排放总量的时间序列数据协整分析和格兰杰因果关系检验，实证分析了黑龙江省碳排放和经济增长之间的关系，结果显示黑龙江省碳排放和经济增长存在长期的均衡关系，并且碳排放是经济增长的格兰杰原因4；刘梦琴，刘轶俊（2011）构建计量模型分析19952008年14年间中国29各省市的数据，发现了城镇化直接加剧了碳排放量的增加5；许冬兰，李琰（2010）运用格兰杰因果分析方法实证分析了山东省城镇化和能源消耗量之间的长短期关系，结果显示，山东省城镇化水平提高是导致能源消费量增长的格兰杰因果原因6。13国外研究情况DAI，D，LIU，H（2011）利用STIRPAT模型研究了19952009年间中国29个省份的城镇化、能源利用、二氧化碳排放之间的关系，结果显示，城镇化对CO2排放的作用是正面且明显的7；DONG和YUAN2011基于19892009年间的相关数据，利用BLANCHARDAPERSPECTIVEFROMSHOCKSDECOMPOSITIONUNDERLONGTERMCONSTRAINTSJENERGYPROCEDIA2011,5166016659POUMANYVONGP,KANEKOSDOESURBANIZATIONLEADTOLESSENERGYUSEANDLOWERCO2EMISSIONSACROSSCOUNTRYANALYSISJECOLOGICALECONOMICS,2010,70243444410卫平,周亚细城市化、能源消费与碳排放基于STIRPAT模型的跨国面板数据实证研究J生态经济,2014,309141811王炜,冯雪,高晶晶基于STIRPAT模型的低碳经济策略分析以辽宁省为例J大连民族学院学报,2012晓彤应用数量经济学M北京机械工业出版社,200913孙昌龙,靳诺,张小雷,杜宏茹城市化不同演化阶段对碳排放的影响差异J地理科学,2013,33326627214周葵，戴小文中国城市化进程与碳排放量关系的实证研究J中国人口资源与环境,2013,234414815狄乾斌,吴佳璐,张洁碳排放因素分解模型及其在辽宁省的应用JECOLOGICALECONOMY91316王超辽宁省低碳经济发展研究J城市发展研究,193899517吴国华化石能源消费的二氧化碳排放量计算与分析以济南市为例J理论学刊,2012,3（217）616518张乐勤,李荣富,陈素平,祝亚雯,许信旺安徽省1995年2009年能源消费碳排放驱动因子分析及趋势预测基于STIRPAT模型J资源科学,2012,34231632719汪东,汲奕君,田丽丽,等中国居民生活能源消费CO2排放的影响因素研究环境污染与防治,2012,34410110520关海玲,陈建成，曹文,等碳排放与城市化关系的实证中国人口资源与环境,2013,234111116致谢在本次论文写作过程中，有过许多的困难。由于之前并没有认真的写过这种论文，对于论文格式要求等也不熟悉。从2014年12月份开始，老师就让我们找文献，看文献，看文章的结构。今年3月份开学又找了几次老师，每次都给我们不同的任务，对论文写作过程有极大的帮助。在整个写作过程中，老师一直不厌其烦的给我们解答各种迷惑。对于文章的结构和内容，给了非常明确的要求和提示，对我的写作有非常大的帮助。之前一直很困惑，但是在老师的帮助下，我能够完成这篇论文，我很自豪，也非常感谢老师。在后期写作过程，将改完论文发给老师，恰逢放假，老师又亲自来学校给我讲论文的不足，对此深表感谢。谢谢老师一直以来的鼓励和帮助，我将尽我所能，把毕业论文认真完成，这就是对老师最好的回报您好，为你提供优秀的毕业论文参考资料，请您删除以下内容，O_O谢谢ANATIONALSURVEYWASRECENTLYLAUNCHEDTOEVALUATETHEEYEHEALTHOFCHINESECHILDRENANDTEENAGERSONJUNE6,CHINASANNUALNATIONALDAYFOREYECARE,THECHINAYOUTHDEVELOPMENTSERVICECENTERANDZHEJIANGMEDICINE,ALEADINGLISTEDCHINESEPHARMACEUTICALCOMPANY,JOINTLYANNOUNCEDTHEKICKOFFOFTHESURVEYINABOUTONEMONTH,AQUESTIONNAIRECOMPILEDBYTOPEYECAREMEDICALEXPERTSINCHINAWILLBEDISTRIBUTEDTHROUGHMULTIPLEONLINEPARTNERS,INCLUDINGHEALTHSOHUCOM,ASWELLASTHROUGHOFFLINESURVEYEVENTSHELDINUNIVERSITIES,MIDDLESCHOOLSANDPRIMARYSCHOOLSACROSSTHECOUNTRYAREPORTWILLBERELEASEDBASEDONTHESURVEYSTATISTICSANDANALYSIS,ANDMOSTIMPORTANTLY,GUIDELINESFORPARENTSANDYOUTHONHOWTOCAREFORTHEEYESANDPREVENTMYOPIAAGROWINGPROBLEMINCHINASDIGITIZEDSOCIETY,WILLALSOBEATTACHEDONTHEREPORT“MYOPIAISNOTONLYADISEASETHATMAKESPEOPLESEETHINGSBLURRILY,BUTALSOLEADSTOSEVERECOMPLICATIONS,SUCHASGLAUCOMAINCREASEDPRESSUREWITHINTHEEYEBALL,ANDCANCAUSEBLINDNESS,“SAIDZHOUYUEHUA,ANESTABLISHEDEYECARESPECIALISTWITH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