中国国债市场金融功能分析（Financial function analysis of China's national debt market）

1、中国国债市场金融功能分析（Financial function analysis of Chinas national debt market）Analysis of China bond market financial functionChinese bond market financial function analysis of 2008-12-20 15:10:21And, in recent years in China bond market overviewAs an important instrument of macroeconomic policy, national

2、 debt plays an important role in market economy countries. Since 1981 China resumed the issuance of treasury bonds, the bond market in the development stage of slow. The second half of 1993, the central of overheating brakes, tightening monetary policy to make money generally tight, the central worr

3、y that this will affect the economic growth. In order to alleviate the brake too fast may cause the decline in economic growth, the rapid expansion of the scale of treasury bonds issued to. Issued in 1994 for the first time exceeded 100 billion yuan mark (94 years before the annual issuance of not m

4、ore than 40 billion yuan); 97 years after the Asian financial crisis. In order to offset the external environment, our country has implemented to expand national debt investment as the focus of the active fiscal policy, to further expand the scale of Treasury bonds. According to the relevant data sh

5、ow that from 2001 to 2004, the Ministry of Finance issued the national debt scale were 488 billion 400 million yuan, 593 billion 400 million yuan. 628 billion 340 million yuan. 692 billion 400 million yuan; by the end of December 2004, the debt amounted to 2 trillion and 86 billion 247 million yuan

6、(excluding government debt); according to the relevant market data is expected to be 2005 treasury bonds 700 billion yuan. From the issuance of treasury bonds to buy the main body, for example in 2002, the bank accounted for 44%; social institutions individual investors accounted for 31%, accounted

7、for 25%, the structure of this ratio basically represents the domestic bond buying body, two market more active participants, including the central bank investment center for commercial banks, insurance companies and fund management company etc.Two, the analysis of macro financial function of nation

8、al debtAs everyone knows, treasury and tax the same as the two most important tool of fiscal policy and debt as a special policy, also has a very strong financial function. On the present situation of our country, the bond market macro financial function is reflected in the following aspects:1. the

9、bond market is helpful to the formation of the market benchmark interest rateThe interest rate is the core of the financial market, the market is one of the most important macroeconomic indicators. The national debt is a fixed income, no credit risk investment tools, which make the Treasury rates be

10、come the basis for pricing other financial instruments. In the full development of the bond market under the condition of a certain period of the issuance of treasury bonds when interest rates represent the expected level of the period when the market interest rate. But in the two grade market, ther

11、e is a risk of national debt. With the people of the future changes in bond prices and interest rates expected changes in the opposite direction, so the price changes also indicates that the change trend of interest rates over the years, Chinas interest rate regulation at multiple levels: the deposi

12、t rate of strict control, any agency shall not violate the provisions of the central bank since the interest rate; the loan interest rates are seen in different financial institutions floating right on different; but the bond market interest rates and interbank interest rate is fully market-oriented

13、. On the issuance of treasury bonds market, due to the lack of short-term debt, short-term yield curve corresponding to form: medium and long-term bonds pricing, because the domestic interest rate market has not yet been completed. The main issue of the trend of interest rate expectations may not be

14、 accurate, sometimes not necessarily appropriate pricing. On the circulation market, because the domestic exist at the same time the inter-bank market and the exchange market (Escrow settlement system, participants are different), market segmentation and sometimes lead to two markets with the term r

15、epo spreads reached a highest percentage points; in addition, the Treasury transactions is not perfect, the main way to do more transactions (or open the 2004 launch of repo can achieve short mechanism), is not conducive to the formation of efficient market structure.2. the bond market is an importa

16、nt basis for the effective implementation of monetary policy, open market service, linking the fiscal policy and monetary policy functionFrom the planned economy fade, credit plan has been abandoned,The commonly used monetary policy tools to market economies: interest rates, deposit reserve ratio an

17、d open market operations. The interest rate tool, because of Chinas interest rate is not fully market-oriented, market sensitive subject to the interest rate is not high, the interest rate transmission mechanism is not perfect; the deposit reserve rate adjustment due to the impact of too large, not

18、as a daily tool. According to the market economy and the practice of our country, the open market operation is the optimal choice of the current can be used as daily tools. Provide the basis for bond issuance and trading of the central banks open market operation. In addition, the bond market also h

19、as an important market function, plays an important role in strengthening the policy effect. In recent years, a number of fiscal policy and monetary policy coordination, all through the connecting function of the bond market. One is the issuance of treasury bonds provides an important investment too

20、l for financial institutions, especially the commercial banks to optimize the asset structure through their own investment in bonds. In the economic growth and the increase in profitability deceleration, stability of the banking industry; two is the bond market of the two, provides a convenient chan

21、nel for finance. Due to financial bank overdraft prohibited, the use of Pro active fiscal policy can only raise capital through the issuance of government bonds, there is no such a good market, active fiscal policy is not possible.3. the bond market has a connection in the money market and the capit

22、al market functionLarge trades as well as providing liquidity to commercial banks, has become a link tool of money market and capital market. From the current situation, the bond market by the inter-bank market and the stock market, the two functions are different, but the inter-bank market particip

23、ants, securities dealers can get financing through repo transactions through the market, the bank funds into the capital market on the source of funds. In principle we do not allow the bank funds into the stock market situation, the market should be said that the association has both advantages and

24、disadvantages, so we mainly is how to correctly guide.4. bond market helps to improve the degree of internationalization of the RMBAs Chinas economy gradually integrated into the process of globalization, the internationalization of the RMB (at least internationalization) is an important development

25、 trend. In order to realize the internationalization of the RMB, there must be a corresponding RMB investment channels. Obviously, China government bonds is undoubtedly the best choice. The full development of the bond market will be able to foreign governments and foreign institutional investors pr

26、ovide a good investment channels and effective asset allocation tools, can achieve good returns and risk adjustment in the global scope in the. In this way, the renminbi could obtain international range of identity, is expected to become an important strategic goal of internationalization.Analysis o

27、f micro finance function three, bondsAs a kind of financial tool, treasury bonds with low credit risk, market acceptance is high and strong liquidity characteristics. Thus, the bond market has an important function of micro finance, from all bonds in the main market perspective, the bond market is i

28、ndispensable.In terms of commercial banks, bonds has become one of the main assets held, is one of the important two level of reserves. In the first half of 90s, commercial banks hold bonds accounted for the proportion of total assets was only 1%, but now has increased to 6% - 8%, close to the marke

29、t economy in developed countries the proportion of 10g6. From the recent practice. Hold the appropriate amount of increase of national debt, income structure and risk structure to help commercial banks improve assets, improve profitability and ability to pay, but also to protect the liquidity to a g

30、reater extent. However, in recent years, the commercial banks holdings of treasury bonds are issued when interest rates low, due to the lack of corresponding hedging tools, once the interest rate rose by a large margin, the commercial banks will face greater market risk, which has been verified in e

31、conomic fluctuation since 2003 in. Therefore, we can say the debt risk, interest rate risk is the main risk of default, rather than.For insurance companies, because of the characteristics of special bonds of long term, low credit risk and high liquidity market, bond investment has become one of the

32、most important ways of the use of insurance funds. Similarly, the social security fund and the recent rise of the enterprise annuity, investment is also essential. By the end of 2004, the structure of insurance funds application in China, investment amounted to 265 billion 170 million yuan, accounti

33、ng for 22.8%. However, due to the long term, especially in long term (20 years or 30 years) to issue bonds less, long-term insurance funds allocation also has certain difficulty, need to be improved.On institutional investors, investment is also very important. To present the most important institut

34、ional investors in the fund company as an example, the ratio of debt holdings is usually above 20%. In the open fund. Money market funds, because of the special requirements of market liquidity, the higher ratio of debt holdings.In addition, the debt is an important investment tool for individual in

35、vestors, that, for low risk and stable return of the elderly investors especially.On the four, for the further development of the financial function of bond marketOver the past ten years, China bond market has great development, and gradually formed a certain market efficiency. It has played an impo

36、rtant role for the stable development of Chinese economy, will also play a more important role. However, the development of the market has its own rules, the market always advantages and disadvantages coexist, when the play to think of the possible harm. Financial institutions in the past ten years,

37、 especially a large number of commercial banks to avoid the risk by investing in bonds. When the market interest rate is declining, but since entering 2003, the market expectations of interest rate has been rising, which leads to the bond prices fell sharply, even issuing bids. At the same time, eve

38、n in a macroeconomic optimistic sound, the stock market does not fall. This makes those who receive money through the bond market and stock repurchase of securities investment institutions are facing both sides fall dilemma, which appeared liquidity difficulties, which caused the market liquidity te

39、nsions. This defect, in a certain extent also reflects the structural defects of the market. In the design of the market, the dominant loss tends to be seen, but the implicit loss is often neglected. In a market that is useful, often ignore the risk side in good faith; and in order to prove a market

40、 risk, and often ignore the effective side.For the status quo of Chinas bond market, I have the following four suggestions:1. in the premise of improving the existing bond market, bond futures market recoveryTen year bonds profit period in the past, we suddenly found that bond prices fell sharply in

41、 the overheated economy, bring a lot of risk to financial institutions. The risk of falling prices may be completely ignored or covered up by the agency may profit the stock market; institutional investors may also be fully able to predict prices. But there is no hedging tools available, had been he

42、ld to fall in prices really. In the latter case, the market is a solution, that is the way to bond futures hedging. Of course, futures itself is a risk, but the risk averse is on the market, want to invest in some risk lovers to undertake the risk they are unwilling to bear. Therefore, rational inve

43、stors will often through a series of market behavior to lock cost. Therefore, if we believe that the bond market is part of a China financial market is an important component, then the bond futures market is an indispensable market. Of course, the international and domestic futures market have also

44、created some losers, so we often take warning, however, for fear of failure and not to the market and the market bear some of the dominant loss. Which one of the economy to the final conclusion more damage, Im afraid to market.2. of the losses of market participantsIt should not be a problem, but it

45、 is our market problem. It will not go out in the market is high, but the fluctuations in the market, will take some extreme loss means. For example, margin trading, margin trading losses have all continued; in the bond custody, when prices fell below the repurchase price, repurchase tend to take the initiative to reduce the loss of default. These actions are the loss of concentration, resulting in systemic risk. This is the market