大学英语四级阅读题文章精读(7)

1、姓名：_ 班级：_ 学号：_-密-封 -线- 大学英语四级阅读题文章精读(7)考试时间：120分钟 考试总分：100分题号一二三四五总分分数遵守考场纪律，维护知识尊严，杜绝违纪行为，确保考试结果公正。大学英语四级阅读理解题文章精选8passage sevenforecasting of statisticsnearly two thousand years have passed since a census decreed by caesar augustus become part of the greatest story ever told. many things have chan

2、ged in the intervening years. the hotel industry worries more about overbuilding than overcrowding, and if they had to meet an unexpected influx, few inns would have a manager to accommodate the weary guests. now it is the census taker that does the traveling in the fond hope that a highly mobile po

3、pulation will stay long enough to get a good sampling. methods of gathering, recording, and evaluating information have presumably been improved a great deal. and where then it was the modest purpose of rome to obtain a simple head count as an adequate basis for levying taxes, now batteries of compl

4、icated statistical series furnished by governmental agencies and private organizations are eagerly scanned and interpreted by sages and seers to get a clue to future events. the bible does not tell us how the roman census takers made out, and as regards our more immediate concern, the reliability of

5、 present day economic forecasting, there are considerable differences of opinion. they were aired at the celebration of the 125th anniversary of the american statistical association. there was the thought that business forecasting might well be on its way from an art to a science, and some speakers

6、talked about newfangled computers and high-falutin mathematical system in terms of excitement and endearment which we, at least in our younger years when these things mattered, would have associated more readily with the description of a fair maiden. but others pointed to the deplorable record of hi

7、ghly esteemed forecasts and forecasters with a batting average below that of the mets, and the president-elect of the association cautioned that high powered statistical methods are usually in order where the facts are crude and inadequate, the exact contrary of what crude and inadequate statisticia

8、ns assume. we left his birthday party somewhere between hope and despair and with the conviction, not really newly acquired, that proper statistical methods applied to ascertainable facts have their merits in economic forecasting as long as neither forecaster nor public is deluded into mistaking the

9、 delineation of probabilities and trends for a prediction of certainties of mathematical exactitude.1. taxation in roman days apparently was based ona. wealth. b. mobility. c. population. d. census takers.2. the american statistical associationa. is converting statistical study from an art to a scie

10、nce.b. has an excellent record in business forecasting.c. is neither hopeful nor pessimistic.d. speaks with mathematical exactitude.3. the message the author wishes the reader to get isa. statisticians have not advanced since the days of the roman.b. statistics is not l1. census 人口调查2. decreed 分布法令3

11、. influx 汇集，流入（人口或物）4. census taker 人口调查员5. in the intervening years 在这期间6. sampling 取样（调查）7. presumable 可能的，可推测的8. batteries 一连串，一系列9. sage 圣人;聪明的（人）10. seer 先知11. newfangled 新型的（贬义）12. high-falutin 夸大的，夸张的13. deplorable 悲惨的，杂乱的14. batting average 平均成功率（原指击球平均得分数）15. ascertainable 可以确定的/确切的16. deli

12、neation 描述17. exactitude 精确难句译注1. the hotel industry worries more about overbuilding than overcrowding, and if they had to meet an unexpected influx, few inns would have a manager to accommodate the weary guests.结构简析 复合句。and后为虚拟条件句。参考译文 旅馆业就忧虑旅馆建的太多，不愁人太多。但是如果他们不得不碰到意想不到大批旅客，没有什么旅馆会有一位经理去安排疲惫不堪的客人的食

13、宿。写作方法与文章大意文章论及统计数字预测经济。采用对比论证手法，还带点讽刺口吻，但气势宏伟。从两千年前恺撒?奥古斯都下令进行的人口调查说起，讲到现在的统计数字预测经济情况。得出应当正确对待预测数字的结论。答案祥解1. c. 人口。答案在第六句，那时罗马计算人头作为征税的适当基础，目的很简单。a. 财富。 b. 流动性。 c. 人口调查员。2. a. 正把统计研究从文科转变成理科。这是从第六句开始讲的一种观点。现在，政府机构和私人组织的一系列复杂的统计数字，由智者和先知人物殷切地浏览和解释以取得预先外未来事件的线索。圣经并没有告诉我们罗马的人口调查员是怎么调查统计的。至于我们当前更加关心的问题

14、：目前经济预测的可靠性，意见分歧很大。美国统计协会125周年庆祝活动上，人们在大肆宣扬这些不同观点。有一种说法是经济预测可能正从文科转向科学（理科）发展。有些人兴高采烈大谈新型计算机和非常高级数学系统。虽然没有明说，明眼人一看便知，艺术向科学转变正是美国统计协会在把统计学从文科转向理科。所以a. 对。b. 在商业预测方面具有杰出的记录。不对。实际上平均成功率还低于the metsc. 既没有希望也不乐观。文内没有提及。只提他们半喜半忧离开协会。d. 以数学的精确性来说话。见下道题解释。协会部分人却有此看法数学精确性。3. b. 统计学（到现在为止）还不是一门科学（理科）。文章最后几句话。连统计协会的主席也告戒说高能统计法在实际材料原始和不允许的地方一般发挥正常。这跟低级的，不合适的统计员所假定的正好相反。我们怀着忧希掺半的心情离开周年庆祝宴会，怀着确实不是新近才有的信念，相信应用于确切材料上恰当的统计法在经济预测中有它的贡献，只要预测人员和公众不受蒙蔽，误呆板所述概率和趋势当作数学精确无比的预测就行。a. 统计员从罗马时代起就没向前进步过。 c.