中国电动汽车发展展望

1、1 中国电动汽车发展展望 development and prospect of vehicle electrification in china 同济大学 tongji university 余卓平 yu zhuoping 2010.7.27 2 中国汽车工业现状 current state of chinas automotive industry 近年来，中国汽车工业迅猛发展，2009年汽车产销总量均超过1360 万辆，成为世界第一汽车生产大国( 按2008年以前预计,到2020年我国 社会汽车保有量达1.3-1.5亿辆，汽车年产量将达到1500万辆，成为世 界第一大汽车制造国，这一预计

2、显然已经保守 )。 chinas automotive industry has undergone remarkable development in recent years. total vehicle production and sales in 2009 exceeded 13.6 million units, making china the worlds largest car-making nation. (based on estimates before 2008, by 2020 chinas total car population would be 130-150

3、million, and annual car production volume would be 15 million, making china the worlds largest car-making nation. this estimate is now obviously conservative.) 年份 year 2010 汽油 消耗量 petrol consumption 7844 柴油 消耗量 diesel consumption 8133 燃油 总消耗量 totalfuel consumption 15977 20129087933418421 20151080111

4、27722079 2020153921514630538 中国汽车工业发展面临的能源问题 energy problems faced by chinas automotive industry during its growth 汽车的快速增长使车用汽柴油需求不断 增大,我国石油供应安全面临严峻挑战 rapid increase in automobile population has meant continuous increase in demand for automotive petrol and diesel, posing serious challenges for the p

5、etroleum supply 4.55 61.5% 3.2 20052010f2015f2020f我国未来车用燃油消耗量预测（单位：万吨） projected fuel consumption in china (unit: 0,000 tons) 我国未来石油进口依存度预测（单位：亿吨） projected reliance on imported crude oil (unit: 100 million tons) 3 我国未来汽车保有量预测（单位：万辆） projected car population in china (unit: 0,000 vehicles) 70.0% 进口依

6、存度 reliance on54.9% import 44.4% 2.25 1.42 15000 10000 5000 0 30000 25000 20000 2010年 2010 2015年 2015 2020年 2020 2025年 2025 2030年 2030 货车 goods vehicle 客车 passenger vehicle 轿车 sedans 中国汽车工业面临的co2问题 co2 problems faced by chinas automotive industry 中国： 2020与国际先进水平接 轨 120 g/km？ china: to attain interna

7、tional standard of 120 g/km by 2020? 美、欧、日co2减排总体目标： total co2 reduction targets for u.s., europe and japan: 美国：2016年目标为127g/km u.s.: 2016 target 127 g/km 欧洲：2020年目标为95 g/km europe: 2020 target 95 g/km 日本：2020年目标为115.5 g/km japan: 2020 target: 115.5 g/km (actual values in 2004) (actual values) europ

8、e u.s. japan (year) 4 门槛线 目标值 targetvalue b c第一阶第一阶段段phase1 第二阶第二阶段段phase2 第三阶第三阶段目段目标值标值 a0phase3target 油耗(l/100 km) petrol 油耗(l/100 km) consumption (l/100 km) 5 第二阶段作为最低要求（门槛）， 高于此值不能上市销售 minimum requirement (threshold) to meet phase 2 of the limits on fuel consumption for passenger sedans; passen

9、ger sedans cannot be sold if they exceed the said value 同时制定了各车型车队平均油耗 的目标值。第三阶段目标值比第 二阶段要求平均下降20%。 a target value was established with respect to the average petrol consumption of various car models and car fleets. the target value for phase 3 must be 20% less than that for phase 2 6 4 18 16 14 12

10、10 8 7009001100130015001700190021002300250027002900 中国汽车工业面临的co2问题 co2 problems faced by chinas automotive industry 中国乘用车新油耗法规限值 limits under chinas new passenger vehicle fuel consumption regulations 以满足乘用车燃料消耗量限值 中国乘用车油耗法规限值 limits under chinas new passenger vehicle oil consumption regulations valu

11、es 整车重量(kg) weight of assembled vehicle (kg) 6 中国电动汽车发展科技计划 chinas electric vehicle development technology plan 九五”清洁汽车行动 (替代燃料) ninth five-year plan clean vehicle project (substitute fuel) 第一阶段: 1998-2002 phase 1: 1998-2002 - lpg 出租车 - lpg taxis - cng 城市客车 - cng intra-city passenger vehicles 第二阶段：

12、2003- phase 2: 2003 - - 醇、醚、柴油、生物质 等 - alcohol; ether; diesel; bio-mass, etc. 2003年： 2003: 19万辆出租车和城市客车 190,000 taxis and intra-city passenger vehicles 600个 燃气加注站 600 gas filling stations 每年替代 130 万吨石油 replace 1.3 million tons of crude oil annually 十五”电动汽车重大科技专项 tenth five-year plan electric vehicle

13、 major technological project “十一五”节能与新能源汽车项目 “eleventh five-year plan energy-saving and new energy vehicle project ev 2001-2005， 2006-2010 - 纯电动汽车 - purely electrified vehicle - 混合动力汽车 - hybrid-power vehicle - 燃料电池汽车 - fuel-cell vehicle 目标：混合动力汽车实现产业化 target: commercialization of hybrid-power vehicl

14、es 纯电动汽车区域性规模应用 large-scale regional application of electrified vehicles 燃料电池汽车规模化示范应用 large-scale demonstration of fuel-cell vehicle application 形成电机、电池、燃料电池和控制系统等关键零部件的产业链 to form an industry chain consisting of key component parts such as electric motors; batteries; fuel-cell and control systems

15、科技奥运新能源汽车示范 demonstration project for new-energy vehicles for technological olympic games 科技世博新能源汽车示范 demonstration project for new-energy vehicles for technological world expo “十城千辆”行动计划 “ten cities; thousand vehicles action plan 北京和上海 等13个城市先行 inaugurated in 13 cities including beijing and shangha

16、i 电动汽车 关键零部件工业 key component parts industry for electric vehicles motor driving and control units motor driving systemmotor drive systems power battery and battery array management systems system 7 燃料电池汽车 fuel-cell vehicles 混合动力汽车 hybrid-power vehicles 纯电动汽车 electrified vehicles 电机驱动系统 燃料电池整车技术 asse

17、mbly technology for fuel-cell vehicles 整车标定和匹配 standardization and matching of assembled vehicles 燃料电池发动机 fuel-cell engines motor driving system dc/dc变换器 dc/dc converter 纯电动车整车技术 assembly technology for electrified vehicles 整车标定和匹配 standardization and matching of assembled vehicles 政策、法规、标准、基础设施研究 s

18、tudies on policies; laws standards and infrastructural facilities 混合动力整车技术 assembly technology for hybrid-power vehicles 整车标定和匹配 standardization and matching of assembled vehicles 发动机和传动 engines maximum efficiency for electric motor systems is more than 93%, with power coverage of civil electric veh

19、icles of below 200 kw 90kw车用永磁驱动电机技术指标接近国际先进水平：系统功率密度1.36kw/kg、电机峰值效率 97%、高效区（系统效率80%）70% indicators for 90 kw vehicle-use permanent magnet electric motor technology close to international standards: system power density 1.36 kw/kg; electric motor peak value efficiency 97%; high-efficiency area (sys

20、tem efficiency 80%) 70% 企业名称 nameofenterprise 2009年20092010年2010 产能 production capacity 投资（万元） investment (0,000) 产能 production capacity 投资（万元） investment (0,000) 比亚迪 byd 中山大洋电机 zhongshanbroad- oceanmotor 湖南南车时代 hunancsrtimes electricvehicle 上海电驱动 shanghaie-drive 天津清源 qingyuanev 湘潭电机 xiangtanelectri

21、c manufacturingcorp. 浙江尤奈特 zhejiangunitemotor 襄樊特种电机 xiangfanspecial electricalmachinery 江苏微特利 jiangsuweiteli 北京中纺锐力 chinatexmechanical durability; low-temperature activation; and environmental adaptability of assembled units 我国已成为世界上少数几个掌握车用百千瓦级燃料电池发动机研发、制造以及测 试技术的国家之一 china has become one of the f

22、ew countries in the world to possess the technology for r mobile hydrogen filling vehicle and fixed hydrogen-filling station, carried out with proprietary research. 批次 batchnumber 科技部863计划“节能与新能源汽车”重大项目重点 keypointsofchinasenergyconversationandnewenergyvehiclekeyprojectinthe863programofmost 2006年1385

23、1144 in200613851144 完成“十一五”总体研发布局，涉及动力系统技术平台，燃料电池汽车、混合动力汽车、纯电动汽车、代用燃料汽车整车和零部 件等 overallr thousand vehicle program plan for demonstration of shanghai electric vehicle 长期示范区 浦东示范区 pudong demonstration area long-term demonstration area 临时示范区 temporary demonstration area 嘉定国际汽车城示范区 jiading international

24、 automotive city demonstration area中心城示范区 city center demonstration 崇明生态镇示范区 chongming ecological town demonstration area 世 area 博园示范区 world expo park demonstration area 金山示范区 jinshan demonstration area 25 世博园区电动汽车示范运行 demonstration operation of world expo park electric vehicle 世博园区内，6辆燃料电池大巴、36辆超级电

25、容大巴运行于世博大道线上，100辆燃料电池观光车、270辆纯电动场馆车运行于地面博成路和高架步道两条观光线上及场馆之间，90辆 燃料电池轿车为世博会贵宾提供交通服务，实现了世博园区公共交通“零排放”。 within expo park, 6 fuel-cell buses; 36 super-capacitance buses; 100 fuel-cell tourist vehicles; and 270 electrified pavilion vehicles which ply two routes - namely ground-level bocheng road and elev

26、ated pedestrian walkway - and between the pavilions. in addition, 90 fuel-cell passenger vehicles provide service to expo 2010 vips. these are designed to achieve zero emission for public transport in the expo park area. 世博会贵宾服务用车：90辆燃料 电池轿车 expo 2010 vip vehicles: 90 fuel-cell passenger vehicles 地面

27、博成路和高架步道线：100辆燃料 电池观光车 ground-level bocheng road and elevated pedestrian walkway: 100 fuel-cell tourist vehicles 越江线：120辆纯电动大巴 trans-river line: 120 electrified buses 26 世博大道：6辆燃料电池大巴 world expo avenue: 6 fuel-cell buses 世博大道：36辆超级电容大巴 world expo avenue: 36 super- capacitance buses 场馆工作车：270辆纯电动场馆车

28、pavilion vehicles: 270 electrified pavilion vehicles green line: trans-river bus purple line: puming road bus ring line: tourist line (beihuan road; elevated pedestrian walkway) 27 世博科技-燃料电池轿车示范 world expo technology demonstration of fuel-cell passenger sedans 28 世博科技-电动公交客车示范 world expo technology

29、demonstration of electric buses 29 电动观光车示范 demonstration of electric tourist coaches 30 燃料电池vip轿车 fuel-cell vip vehicle 燃料电池观光车 fuel-cell tourist vehicles 燃料电池大巴 fuel-cell buses 50辆 50 vehicles 6辆 6 vehicles 100辆 100 vehicles 燃料电池汽车供氢体系 hydrogen-supply system for fuel-cell vehicles 焦化厂氢气生产、提纯 produc

30、tion, extraction and purification by coke-oven plant 安亭加氢站 anting hydrogen filling station 济阳路加氢站 filling station 40辆 40 vehicles 移动加氢站 mobile hydrogen filling station 31 促进中国电动汽车发展的思考 thoughts on promoting the development of electric vehicles in china 国家设立科技专项支持，行业积极主动建立产学研联盟进行技术攻关，突破电池（包括燃料电池）、 动力

31、总成、电控等核心技术的瓶颈制约 the state set up technological project support and the industry is actively establishing industry- academic research alliances to undertake technological research to seek breakthroughs in batteries (including fuel cells), powertrain and electric control technologies 政府设立新型产业专项支持产业能力建

32、设，提高电动汽车的生产工艺、质量保证水平，降低成本 the government set up new-style industry project support for development of production capacity and improvement in production techniques for electric vehicles to ensure quality and reduce costs 根据城市能源资源、交通特点，做好城市交通电动化所需的基础设施规划和建设 to ensure that planning and construction of

33、infrastructure facilities required for urban electrical transportation are carried out based on the citys energy resources and traffic characteristics 建立集中的零排放电动汽车示范区(如上海崇明岛,嘉定国际汽车城)，营造市场，创造新型商业化模式, 大力推动汽车电动化进程 to construct concentrated zero-emission electric vehicle demonstration areas (such as tho

34、se on chongming island and in jiading international auto city); to create market and new-style commercialization models, and to spare no efforts in promoting the electrification of vehicles 生态崇明岛 零排放电动汽车发展的首选 ecological chongming island the first choice for development of zero-emission electric vehicles 崇明岛陆域面积：1267平方公里 land area of chongming island: 1,267 sq. km 崇明岛东西长：80公里； distance from east to west: 80 k