完结版 水文预报课程设计报告

1、水文预报课程设计报告班级 水文1班 姓名 解跃然 学号 1101010128 一、基本任务1、根据已给数据资料及参数（本报告采用89-90年的历史数据），将流域作为整体（1）进行日模型产流量计算；（2）比较计算年径流与实测年径流；（3）通过误差分析，优选蒸发折算系数Kc。2、根据已给的设计暴雨资料（宝口流域23日至26日暴雨）和任务一率定的Kc，将流域作为整体进行（1）次洪产流量，划分水源.直接径流汇流，地下径流汇流计算；（2）绘出直接径流过程，地下径流过程，总的流量过程。二、基本资料白盆珠水库位于广东省东江一级支流西枝江的上 游，坝址以上集雨面积856km2 。流域地处粤东沿海的西部，海洋性

2、气候显著，气候温和，雨量丰 沛。暴雨成因主要是锋面雨和台风雨，常受热带 风暴影响。降雨年际间变化大，年内分配不均， 多年平均降雨量为1800mm，实测年最大降雨量为3417mm，汛期49月降雨量占年降雨量的81 左右：径流系数0.5一0.7。流域内地势平缓，土壤主要有黄壤和砂壤，具有 明显的腐殖层，淀积层和母质土等层次结构，透 水性好。台地、丘陵多生长松、杉、樟等高大乔 木；平原则以种植农作物和经济作物为主，植被 良好。流域上游有宝口水文站，流域面积553km2，占白盆珠水库坝址以上集雨面积的64.6%。白盆珠水库有10年逐日入库流量资料、逐日蒸发资料和时段入库流量资料：流域内有7个雨量站，其

3、中宝口以上有4个。雨量站分布较均匀有10年逐日降水资料和时段降水资料；宝口水文站具有10年以上水位、流量资料；流域属山区性小流域且受到地形、地貌等下垫面条件影响，洪水陡涨缓落，汇流时间一般23h，有时更短；一次洪水总历时25d。白盆珠水库坝址以上流域水系及站点分布图：三、计算公式1、蒸散发计算（三层蒸发模式）1)当WU+P=EP, EU=Ep,EL=0,ED=0;2)当WU+P=C.WLM, EU=WU+P,EL=(EP-EU)*WL/WLM,ED=0;3)当WU+PEP, C.(EP-EU)=WLC.WLM, EU=WU+P,EL=C*(EP-EU),ED=0;4)当WU+PEP, WL0，

4、则产流；否则不产流。产流时，当PE+aWMM：R=PE+W-WM+WM*(1-(PE+a)/WMM)(b+1)当PE+aWMM：R=PE+W-WM3、水源划分：流域坡地上的降雨产流量因产流过程的条件和运动路径不同，受流域的调蓄作用不同，各径流成分在流量过程线上的反应是不一样的。各水源分量如下：1） 当PE=FC时：RD=0.0 RG=R2） 当PEFC时：RG=FC*R/PE RD=R-RG4、汇流计算：根据流域净雨和流域径流单位线，采用卷积的差分形式算出流域出口的流量过程。计算公式：QS(I)=RS(I)*U QG(I)=CG*RG(I)*U+(1-CG)*QG(I-1)Q(I)=QS(I)

5、+QG(I)四、计算结果任务一基本数据1.计算流域为白盆珠水库上游的宝口流域，流域面积553 km2。2.流域内有四个雨量站：禾多布、马山、高潭、宝口，权中重分别为0.33、0.14、0.33、0.203.资料放在/data文件夹下，数据格式为：T(i) Q(i) E(i)P1(i) P2(i) P3(i) P4(i)4.计算参数WM=140,UM=20,LM=60,DM=60，IM=0.001,FC=22，W=110,WU=10,WL=40,WD=60 b=0.2,C=0.16任务二1计算参数WM=140,UM=20,LM=60,DM=60IM=0.001,FC=10.2W=110,WU=1

6、0,WL=40,WD=60 b=0.2,C=0.16Cg=0.970，Qg=55.32.暴雨基本数据任务一：KC的优选：基本做法是分别对两年进行优选：已经给定了KC在0.90到1.30之间变化，可以从初值KC=0.90算起，以0.01为步长逐渐变化，得到所有的kc对应的年径流深，分别与实际径流深进行比较，求出相对误差。这样同样一个KC在两年分别对应两个不同的年径流深相对误差，然后在上图中对比，找出误差尽量控制在5%以内的一组，这一组对应的KC就是率定的KC。经过程序分析计算，得到KC=1.02。KC=1.02时，有年份实测R计算R绝对误差相对误差1989945.97898.76-47.21-4

7、.99%19901277.961296.4618.505.32%虽然KC=1.02时用1990年的数据算出的相对误差大于5%，但是与其他KC值相比偏差要更小一点，所以优选KC=1.02。任务二：汇流计算结果（Q取3位有效数字）时间P(mm)RD(mm)RG(mm)R(mm)QD(m3/s)QG(m3/s)Q(m3/s)1989-9-23 12:0014.0200.62.53.20.757.558.215:0014.0660.83.13.93.260.663.818:0011.03903.73.78.864.473.221:0018.714571215.573.388.81989-9-24 0:

8、0029.69118.310.228.538.186.81253:0036.00224.910.235.112899.82286:0038.28727.210.237.43221124349:007.80006.96.960112072112:0030.51119.410.229.676813290015:0042.64031.610.241.885314399618:0093.81182.710.292.9856155101021:0084.0917310.283.2122016613901989-9-25 0:0047.60936.610.246.8176017719403:0056.40

9、945.110.255.3237018725606:0050.35339.110.249.3264019728409:0016.4615.210.215.42590207280012:005.83904.84.82350208256015:008.30607.27.21850213206018:002.59901.51.51240209145021:000.1650007682029701989-9-26 0:0000003921975893:000000166191357 6:000000721852579:00000024.717920412:0000002.617417715:00000

10、0016916918:000000016416421:0000000159159洪水过程线如下图五、误差统计和分析（KC=1.02）年份实测R计算R绝对误差相对误差1989945.97898.76-47.21-4.99%19901277.961296.4618.505.32%虽然这时候的kc已经最优化，但是可以看到与实测资料相比，依旧存在-4.99%和5.32%的误差。这个误差来源应该有以下几个方面：（1） 量测误差：应该说实测流量资料量测过程当中，可能受到很多因素影响，所以可能实测流量资料本身也不一定是真实值；另外，降雨，蒸发等资料的量测也同样会存在一定的误差，这一点上会直接影响到kc的率定

11、；（2） 预报方法误差：很大程度上可能体现在模型上面，可能我个人的VB程序当中有些算法本身就会带来一定的误差，比如说，程序当中，对于所有的量都采用了四舍五入算法，经过一次次循环，其结果只能是逐渐放大这个误差，影响到KC；（3） 资料代表性误差：根据水文规范，参数率定至少需要10年以上的资料，同时对于洪水次数也有着一定的要求，但是眼下本身只提供了两年的资料用以率定KC，从两年年径流来看，明显都是处于丰水年，资料匮乏，同时也缺乏代表性，这个误差影响比较大。要明确一点，KC是一个非常敏感的参数，只要有一点点的误差，都会给汇流阶段的计算带来很大的误差。所以从这一点的意义上来讲，任务一当中的误差会直接传

12、播到任务二当中，并逐渐放大，给产汇流计算带来很大的影响！六、心得体会设计的模型结构与流域的实际产流过程和规律不完全相符，主要有以下的原因：（1）各种水分之间交换的计算式同实际的水分运动不符；（2）蒸散发计算模式与流域的蒸发变化规律之间的差异；（3）降雨时空分布不均匀的影响；（4）下垫面条件不均匀。误差的产生有参数率定误差，资料误差，模型结构误差等等。通过这次水文预报课程设计，使我了解了流域产汇流的基本原理，掌握了编制预报方案的基本方法与技术，对水文要素变化规律进行了分析，提高了分析问题和解决问题的能力，增强了理论与实际的联系。我要感谢老师的精心指导和同学们的帮助。七、程序代码任务一、Priva

13、te Sub Command1_Click()Dim fname As StringDim fnumber As IntegerDim i As IntegerCommonDialog1.Filter = 纯文本文件|*.csv|所有文件|*.*CommonDialog1.ShowOpenfnumber = FreeFilefname = CommonDialog1.FileNameIf fname ThenOpen fname For Input As #fnumberi = 1Do While Not EOF(fnumber)ReDim Preserve TIME(i)ReDim Pres

14、erve QREAL(i)ReDim Preserve E_Measure(i)ReDim Preserve P1(i)ReDim Preserve P2(i)ReDim Preserve P3(i)ReDim Preserve P4(i)Input #fnumber, TIME(i), QREAL(i), E_Measure(i), P1(i), P2(i), P3(i), P4(i)i = i + 1Loopi = i - 1Close #fnumberEnd IfEnd SubPrivate Sub Command2_Click()Dim JSZ As SingleDim GCZ As

15、SingleDim fault As SingleDim absfault As SingleWUM = Val(Text1)WLM = Val(Text2)WDM = Val(Text3)WUU = Val(Text4)WLL = Val(Text5)WDD = Val(Text6)C = Val(Text7)B = Val(Text8)FC = Val(Text9)IM = Val(Text10)KC = Val(Text11)CG = 0QGG = 0ReDim UH(1)UH(1) = 0JSZ = 0GCZ = 0Dim j As IntegerDim i As IntegerDim

16、 WM As SingleDim WMM As Single数据准备-WM = WUM + WLM + WDMWMM = (1 + B) * WMReDim WU(1) As SingleReDim WL(1) As SingleReDim WD(1) As SingleReDim W(1) As SingleWU(1) = WUUWL(1) = WLLWD(1) = WDDW(1) = WU(1) + WL(1) + WD(1)For i = 1 To (UBound(P1() - LBound(P1() + 1)ReDim Preserve P(i)P(i) = P1(i) * 0.33

17、+ P2(i) * 0.14 + P3(i) * 0.33 + P4(i) * 0.2Next i数据准备-For i = 1 To (UBound(P1() - LBound(P1() + 1)1、计算WU、WL、WD-ReDim Preserve EU(i)ReDim Preserve EL(i)ReDim Preserve ED(i)ReDim Preserve E(i)ReDim Preserve WU(i)ReDim Preserve WL(i)ReDim Preserve WD(i)ReDim Preserve W(i)ReDim Preserve PE(i)ReDim Prese

18、rve R(i)ReDim Preserve R_PE(i)ReDim Preserve RG(i)ReDim Preserve RS(i)ReDim Preserve A(i)ReDim Preserve EP(i)EP(i) = KC * E_Measure(i)If i 1 ThenWU(i) = MIN(CInt(10 * (WU(i - 1) + P(i - 1) - R(i - 1) - EU(i - 1) / 10, WUM)If (CInt(10 * (P(i - 1) - R(i - 1) - EU(i - 1) + WU(i - 1) - WUM) / 10) 0 Then

19、WL(i) = MIN(CInt(10 * (P(i - 1) - R(i - 1) - EU(i - 1) + WU(i - 1) - WUM + WL(i - 1) - EL(i - 1) / 10), WLM)If (CInt(10 * (P(i - 1) - R(i - 1) - EU(i - 1) - EL(i - 1) + WU(i - 1) + WL(i - 1) - WUM - WLM) / 10) 0 ThenWD(i) = (CInt(10 * (P(i - 1) - R(i - 1) - EU(i - 1) - EL(i - 1) + WU(i - 1) + WL(i -

20、 1) - WUM - WLM) / 10) + WD(i - 1) - ED(i - 1)ElseWD(i) = CInt(10 * (WD(i - 1) - ED(i - 1) / 10End IfElseWL(i) = CInt(10 * (WL(i - 1) - EL(i - 1) / 10WD(i) = CInt(10 * (WD(i - 1) - ED(i - 1) / 10End IfW(i) = WU(i) + WL(i) + WD(i)End If1、计算WU、WL、WD-2、计算EU、EL、ED-EU(i) = CInt(10 * MIN(WU(i) + P(i), EP(

21、i) / 10If EU(i) 0 ThenA(i) = WMM * (1 - (1 - W(i) / WM) (1 / (1 + B)If (A(i) + PE(i) = WMM ThenR(i) = CInt(10 * (PE(i) + W(i) - WM + WM * (1 - (PE(i) + A(i) / WMM) (B + 1) / 10ElseR(i) = CInt(10 * (PE(i) - (WM - W(i) / 10End IfElseR(i) = 0End IfIf R(i) 0 ThenR_PE(i) = CInt(100 * (R(i) / PE(i) / 100

22、保留两位小数RG(i) = CInt(10 * MIN(PE(i), FC) * R_PE(i) / 10RS(i) = CInt(10 * (R(i) - RG(i) / 10ElseR_PE(i) = 0RG(i) = 0RS(i) = 0End IfRG(i) = CInt(10 * (1 - IM) * RG(i) / 10RS(i) = CInt(10 * (1 - IM) * RS(i) + IM * (P(i) - EP(i) / 104、计算R、R_PE、RG、p_rs-Next-汇流计算-ReDim QG(UBound(P1() - LBound(P1() + 1 + UBo

23、und(UH() - LBound(UH()ReDim Preserve RG(UBound(P1() - LBound(P1() + 1 + UBound(UH() - LBound(UH()ReDim Preserve P(UBound(P1() - LBound(P1() + 1 + UBound(UH() - LBound(UH()QG(1) = CG * QGG + (1 - CG) * RG(1) * 553 / 3 / 3.6For i = 2 To (UBound(P1() - LBound(P1() + 1 + UBound(UH() - LBound(UH()QG(i) =

24、 CG * QG(i - 1) + (1 - CG) * RG(i) * 553 / 3 / 3.6NextReDim QS(UBound(P1() - LBound(P1() + 1 + UBound(UH() - LBound(UH()ReDim QALL(UBound(P1() - LBound(P1() + 1 + UBound(UH() - LBound(UH()For i = 1 To (UBound(P1() - LBound(P1() + 1)For j = 1 To (UBound(UH() - LBound(UH() + 1)QS(i + j - 1) = QS(i + j

25、 - 1) + RS(i) * UH(j) / 10If QS(i + j - 1) Y ThenMIN = YElseMIN = XEnd IfEnd FunctionPublic Function MAX(ByVal X, ByVal Y)If X Y ThenMAX = YElseMAX = XEnd IfEnd Function任务二、Option ExplicitOption Base 1Dim WUM As SingleDim WLM As SingleDim WDM As SingleDim WUU As SingleDim WLL As SingleDim WDD As Sin

26、gleDim C As SingleDim B As SingleDim FC As SingleDim IM As SingleDim KC As SingleDim CG As SingleDim QGG As SinglePrivate TIME() As StringPrivate E_Measure() As SinglePrivate P1() As SinglePrivate P2() As SinglePrivate P3() As SinglePrivate P4() As SinglePrivate UH() As SinglePrivate Sub Command1_Cl

27、ick()Dim fname As StringDim fnumber As IntegerDim i As IntegerCommonDialog1.Filter = 文本文件|*.csv|所有文件|*.*CommonDialog1.ShowOpenfnumber = FreeFilefname = CommonDialog1.FileNameIf fname ThenOpen fname For Input As #fnumberi = 1Do While Not EOF(fnumber)ReDim Preserve TIME(i)ReDim Preserve E_Measure(i)Re

28、Dim Preserve P1(i)ReDim Preserve P2(i)ReDim Preserve P3(i)ReDim Preserve P4(i)Input #fnumber, TIME(i), E_Measure(i), P1(i), P2(i), P3(i), P4(i)i = i + 1Loopi = i - 1Close #fnumberEnd IfEnd SubPrivate Sub Command2_Click()Dim fnumber As IntegerDim fname As StringDim i As IntegerCommonDialog1.Filter =

29、文本文件|*.csv|所有文件|*.*CommonDialog1.ShowOpenfnumber = FreeFilefname = CommonDialog1.FileNameIf fname ThenOpen fname For Input As #fnumberi = 1Do While Not EOF(fnumber)ReDim Preserve UH(i)Input #fnumber, UH(i)i = i + 1Loopi = i - 1Close #fnumberEnd IfEnd SubPrivate Sub Command3_Click()WUM = Val(Text1)WL

30、M = Val(Text2)WDM = Val(Text3)WUU = Val(Text4)WLL = Val(Text5)WDD = Val(Text6)C = Val(Text7)B = Val(Text8)FC = Val(Text9)IM = Val(Text10)KC = Val(Text11)CG = Val(Text12)QGG = Val(Text13)Dim j As IntegerDim i As IntegerDim WM As SingleDim WMM As Single数据准备-WM = WUM + WLM + WDMWMM = (1 + B) * WMReDim

31、WU(1) As SingleReDim WL(1) As SingleReDim WD(1) As SingleReDim W(1) As SingleWU(1) = WUUWL(1) = WLLWD(1) = WDDW(1) = WU(1) + WL(1) + WD(1)For i = 1 To (UBound(P1() - LBound(P1() + 1)ReDim Preserve P(i)P(i) = P1(i) * 0.33 + P2(i) * 0.14 + P3(i) * 0.33 + P4(i) * 0.2Next i数据准备-For i = 1 To (UBound(P1()

32、 - LBound(P1() + 1)1、计算WU、WL、WD-ReDim Preserve EU(i)ReDim Preserve EL(i)ReDim Preserve ED(i)ReDim Preserve E(i)ReDim Preserve WU(i)ReDim Preserve WL(i)ReDim Preserve WD(i)ReDim Preserve W(i)ReDim Preserve PE(i)ReDim Preserve R(i)ReDim Preserve R_PE(i)ReDim Preserve RG(i)ReDim Preserve RS(i)ReDim Pre

33、serve A(i)ReDim Preserve EP(i)EP(i) = KC * E_Measure(i)If i 1 ThenWU(i) = MIN(CInt(10 * (WU(i - 1) + P(i - 1) - R(i - 1) - EU(i - 1) / 10, WUM)If (CInt(10 * (P(i - 1) - R(i - 1) - EU(i - 1) + WU(i - 1) - WUM) / 10) 0 ThenWL(i) = MIN(CInt(10 * (P(i - 1) - R(i - 1) - EU(i - 1) + WU(i - 1) - WUM + WL(i

34、 - 1) - EL(i - 1) / 10), WLM)If (CInt(10 * (P(i - 1) - R(i - 1) - EU(i - 1) - EL(i - 1) + WU(i - 1) + WL(i - 1) - WUM - WLM) / 10) 0 ThenWD(i) = (CInt(10 * (P(i - 1) - R(i - 1) - EU(i - 1) - EL(i - 1) + WU(i - 1) + WL(i - 1) - WUM - WLM) / 10) + WD(i - 1) - ED(i - 1)ElseWD(i) = CInt(10 * (WD(i - 1)

35、- ED(i - 1) / 10End IfElseWL(i) = CInt(10 * (WL(i - 1) - EL(i - 1) / 10WD(i) = CInt(10 * (WD(i - 1) - ED(i - 1) / 10End IfW(i) = WU(i) + WL(i) + WD(i)End If1、计算WU、WL、WD-2、计算EU、EL、ED-EU(i) = CInt(10 * MIN(WU(i) + P(i), EP(i) / 10If EU(i) 0 ThenA(i) = WMM * (1 - (1 - W(i) / WM) (1 / (1 + B) 不知道这边要不要进行

36、数值修约！If (A(i) + PE(i) = WMM ThenR(i) = CInt(10 * (PE(i) + W(i) - WM + WM * (1 - (PE(i) + A(i) / WMM) (B + 1) / 10ElseR(i) = CInt(10 * (PE(i) - (WM - W(i) / 10End IfElseR(i) = 0End IfIf R(i) 0 ThenR_PE(i) = CInt(100 * (R(i) / PE(i) / 100 保留了两位小数RG(i) = CInt(10 * MIN(PE(i), FC) * R_PE(i) / 10RS(i) = C

37、Int(10 * (R(i) - RG(i) / 10ElseR_PE(i) = 0RG(i) = 0RS(i) = 0End IfRG(i) = CInt(10 * (1 - IM) * RG(i) / 10RS(i) = CInt(10 * (1 - IM) * RS(i) + IM * (P(i) - EP(i) / 104、计算R、R_PE、RG、p_rs-Next-汇流计算-ReDim QG(UBound(P1() - LBound(P1() + 1 + UBound(UH() - LBound(UH()ReDim Preserve RG(UBound(P1() - LBound(P

38、1() + 1 + UBound(UH() - LBound(UH()ReDim Preserve P(UBound(P1() - LBound(P1() + 1 + UBound(UH() - LBound(UH()QG(1) = CG * QGG + (1 - CG) * RG(1) * 553 / 3 / 3.6For i = 2 To (UBound(P1() - LBound(P1() + 1 + UBound(UH() - LBound(UH()QG(i) = CG * QG(i - 1) + (1 - CG) * RG(i) * 553 / 3 / 3.6NextReDim QS

39、(UBound(P1() - LBound(P1() + 1 + UBound(UH() - LBound(UH()ReDim QALL(UBound(P1() - LBound(P1() + 1 + UBound(UH() - LBound(UH()For i = 1 To (UBound(P1() - LBound(P1() + 1)For j = 1 To (UBound(UH() - LBound(UH() + 1)QS(i + j - 1) = QS(i + j - 1) + RS(i) * UH(j) / 10If QS(i + j - 1) 0 ThenQS(i + j - 1)

40、 = 0End IfNextNextWith TChart1 .Series(0).Clear .Series(1).Clear .Series(2).ClearEnd WithFor i = 1 To (UBound(QS() - LBound(QS() + 1)With TChart1 .Series(0).AddXY i, QALL(i), , clTeeColor .Series(1).AddXY i, QS(i), , clTeeColor .Series(2).AddXY i, QG(i), , clTeeColorEnd WithNext iEnd SubPrivate Sub

41、Command4_Click()Dim j As IntegerDim i As IntegerDim WM As SingleDim WMM As Single数据准备-WM = WUM + WLM + WDMWMM = (1 + B) * WMReDim WU(1) As SingleReDim WL(1) As SingleReDim WD(1) As SingleReDim W(1) As SingleWU(1) = WUUWL(1) = WLLWD(1) = WDDW(1) = WU(1) + WL(1) + WD(1)For i = 1 To (UBound(P1() - LBou

42、nd(P1() + 1)ReDim Preserve P(i)P(i) = P1(i) * 0.33 + P2(i) * 0.14 + P3(i) * 0.33 + P4(i) * 0.2Next i数据准备-For i = 1 To (UBound(P1() - LBound(P1() + 1)1、计算WU、WL、WD-ReDim Preserve EU(i)ReDim Preserve EL(i)ReDim Preserve ED(i)ReDim Preserve E(i)ReDim Preserve WU(i)ReDim Preserve WL(i)ReDim Preserve WD(i)ReDim Preserve W(i)ReDim Preserve PE(i)ReDim Preserve R(i)ReDim Preserve R_PE(i)ReDim Preserve RG(i)ReDim Prese