Power Sector Res New World Nigeria电力行业的改革——新世界尼利亚

1、nigeria business and investment summit, london.july 30, 2012. investment opportunities in the nigerian power sectorbyprof. bart nnajihonourable minister of powerthe federal government of nigeria has a “vision 20-2020”: 40,000mw of power by the year 2020current installed capacity of 8,425mw is 20% of

2、 vision targetavailable capacity is only about 50% of installed capacitymassive expansion in generation, transmission and distribution infrastructure (us$100b in 10 years) neededgeneration alone requires over $3.5billion/year for the next 8 yearsgovernment is unable to fund and manage this requireme

3、nt. hence, the decision to reform the sectorfederal ministry of power2nigeria needs to dramatically increase its power generation to unlock the countrys full economic potentialbrazilsouth africamoroccoindiaindonesianigeriapower generation installed capacity1 capacity estimate based on consumption pe

4、r capita average of brazil and south africa and with capacity utilization of 70% to achieve brazil gdp per capita level by 2030 (i.e., $10,000), we will need 135gw1 of capacity to supply a projected 230m nigeriansthis is a 15 times capacity increase from todayit also means we need to build power pla

5、nts at 7 gw/year for the next 18 years. kw / thousand inhabitants3federal ministry of powermonopoly of the nigerian power sector single authority national electric power authority (nepa) was in place up until 2005inefficient management of power supply systemshigh technical and non-technical losses i

6、n the power systemcorrupt public-owned and public-managed power sectorobsolete and inefficient power infrastructure owing to little or no maintenanceminimal investment in powerlow tariff rates with low collection rates federal ministry of power4federal ministry of power5nigeria had one of the lowest

7、 low tariff levels in sub-saharan africa making it uncompetitive for private sector participation. a new cost reflective tariff commenced june 1, 2012 to enable investors recover cost and push the tariff level to an average modelthe objective is to reform the sector and introduce private sector part

8、icipation;creation of an independent sector regulator nigerian electricity regulatory commission (nerc)creation of a initial holding company (power holding company of nigeria) for the nepa assets and liabilitiesunbundling of phcn into successor companies - 6 generating companies, 11 distribution com

9、panies, 1 transmission company, 2 special purpose entities: a liability management company and a bulk traderprivatization of generation and distribution companieslicensing of new entrants into the generation spacefederal ministry of power6vtight coupling of the entire value-chainvincentivizing each

10、link in the value-chain to provide support to all others and motivate them to deliver on expectations vclose monitoring of all projects and performance along the value-chainvtargeting critical changes in ownership and control of the sectorfederal ministry of power7federal ministry of power8long term

11、 goals the nigerian power market to have reached stability for willing-buyer, willing-seller modeto ensure that all aspects and stakeholders of the nesi are working together to deliver quality, reliable and efficient electricity to consumers at reasonable pricespower sector reform roadmap was launch

12、ed by president goodluck jonathan in august 2010: the roadmap lays a definite plan setting timetable and guidelines for the implementation of the epsr act of 2005 reconstitute and strengthen the nigerian electricity regulatory commission (nerc) establish the nigeria bulk electricity trading company

13、(bulk trader) as a credit-worthy off-taker resuscitate the erstwhile comatose rural electrification agency (rea) develop and implement a cost reflective tariffs. june 1st 2012 the revised tariff, multi-year tariff order 2, took effect.fast-track the privatization programme federal ministry of power9

14、privatization of generation/distribution companies in progress:hydro power plants - concessionthermal power plants - privatizationthe transmission company of nigeria on july 23, 2012, signed a management contract with manitoba hydro international of canada who will be responsible for managing the tr

15、ansmission network and the national grid.tremendous response from international investors331 bids submitted, 207 prequalified 25 bids received for the 6 generation companies as at july 17, 2012bids for the 11 distribution companies are expected on july 31, 2012 emergence of winning investor groups i

16、n 4th quarter of 2012federal ministry of power10 investor confidence boosted byexecutive political-will with policy stability and consistencyrule of law (sanctity of contracts)regulatory certainty (regulatory independence)institutional capacity (ministries, departments and agencies driving the chang

17、e)proper project development (proper feasibility/eia studies)ensuring credit worthiness of market participants (bulk trader)long-term planningfederal ministry of power11initial us$1.5 world bank partial risk guarantee for power generationus exim bank has provided an investment window of more than us

18、$1.5bn for investment in the nigerian power sectorus$150 african development bank (afd)overseas private investment council (opic)federal ministry of power12federal ministry of power13general electric mousiemens ag moudaewoo e&celetrobrasedf/etdeinvestors from all over the world have shown commit

19、ment and keen interest in nigerias power sector owing to the clearly defined programme set out by its government-asia (china, india, south korea)-europe (germany, nordic countries, uk)-the americas (united states, canada)-africa-south america (brazil-nigeria, etcthese companies have all signed memor

20、andums of understanding with the nigerian government to support power projects with a new approach of providing equity in the investmentthe presence of a strong, independent regulator: nigerian electricity regulatory commission.institution of a cost reflective tariff effective june 1st 2012 with maj

21、or reviews of multi year tariff order (myto) to occur after every 5 yearsinstitutionalization of international best-practice commercial frameworks in power purchase agreements (ppas), gas supply agreements (gsas) and gas transport agreements (gtas)presence of a creditworthy off taker for power: nige

22、ria bulk electricity trading company plc (also known as the bulk trader) backed by wb partial risk guaranteesfederal ministry of power14federal ministry of power15gas supply/ transport tariffwholesale tariff for powerwheelingchargeretail tariff for powerbillstuos paymentpayment of bills ppa paymentg

23、as supply/transport billgas paymentstransmission billppa agreementlarge potential electricity market: about 167 million people, about 50% below 18 years, (and growing!) with about 60% access to grid electricity. an energy hungry populationnigeria has a broad base and abundance of fuel sources: hydro

24、, natural gas, coal, solar and windgovernment has set an aggressive target build to increase installed capacity to 40,000mw by year 2020gas supply and gas transport to support at least 70% of the new build presents a tremendous opportunity for investors in gas assetsdevelopment of nigerias abundant

25、low sulphur coal reserve for power generation is an area for investmentfederal ministry of power16investment in developing large hydro power as well as small and medium-scale hydro power projects; we have identified 370 sites for development of small hydro projects.renewable energy portfolio standar

26、ds to drive generation from renewable sources such as wind, solar and proposed expansion of the existing 132kv and 330kv power transmission network and development of a 765 kv super grid loop across the country a growing electricity market means an opportunity for the manufacturing of power equipment and componentsfederal ministry of power17development of emergency and off-grid power projects to serve communities without access to the gridpower related training, management consultancy services and capacity development such as legal, power engineering and financial servicesit is estimated tha