曼昆《经济学原理第三版》宏观分册原版中英文双语Chap_24

1、Chapter 24Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uInflation refers to a situation in which the economys overall price level is rising. 通货膨胀通货膨胀是指经济中物价总水平上升的情况。是指经济中物价总水平上升的情况。uThe inflation rate is the percentage change in the price level from the previous period. 通货膨

2、胀率通货膨胀率是从前一个时期以来物价总水平变动的百是从前一个时期以来物价总水平变动的百分比。分比。 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uThe consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the overall cost of the goods and services bought by a typical consumer. uThe Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the CPI each month

3、.uIt is used to monitor changes in the cost of living over time.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u消费物价指数消费物价指数 (CPI)是普通消费者所购是普通消费者所购买的物品与劳务的总费用的衡量标准。买的物品与劳务的总费用的衡量标准。 u劳工部劳工部的一个部门的一个部门劳工统计局劳工统计局每月都计每月都计算并公布消费物价指数。算并公布消费物价指数。u它被用来监测生活费用随着时间的变化它被用来监测生活费用随着时间的变化情况。

4、情况。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.When the CPI rises, the typical family has to spend more dollars to maintain the same standard of living.当当CPI上升时，普通家庭不得不花费上升时，普通家庭不得不花费更多的美元来保持原来的生活水平。更多的美元来保持原来的生活水平。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by H

5、arcourt, Inc.uFix the Basket: Determine what prices are most important to the typical consumer.uThe Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) identifies a market basket of goods and services the typical consumer buys. uThe BLS conducts monthly consumer surveys to set the weights for the prices of those goods

6、 and services.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u固定篮子固定篮子: 确定哪些物价对普通消费确定哪些物价对普通消费者是最重要的。者是最重要的。u劳工统计局劳工统计局(BLS)通过消费者调查并找出通过消费者调查并找出普通消费者购买的一篮子物品与劳务。普通消费者购买的一篮子物品与劳务。 u劳工统计局每月对消费者进行调查来确劳工统计局每月对消费者进行调查来确定对这些物品与劳务价格的权数。定对这些物品与劳务价格的权数。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived

7、 items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uFind the Prices: Find the prices of each of the goods and services in the basket for each point in time. 找出价格：找出价格：找出每个时点上篮子中每找出每个时点上篮子中每种物品与劳务的价格。种物品与劳务的价格。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uCompute the Baskets Cost: Use t

8、he data on prices to calculate the cost of the basket of goods and services at different times. 计算这一篮子东西的费用：计算这一篮子东西的费用：用价格数据计用价格数据计算不同时点一篮子物品与劳务的费用。算不同时点一篮子物品与劳务的费用。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uChoose a Base Year and Compute the Index: uDesignate one year

9、as the base year, making it the benchmark against which other years are compared. uCompute the index by dividing the price of the basket in one year by the price in the base year and multiplying by 100. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u选择基年并计算指数选择基年并计算指数: u指定一年

10、为基年，即其他各年与之比较的基指定一年为基年，即其他各年与之比较的基准。准。 u每年一篮子物品与劳务的价格除以基年一篮每年一篮子物品与劳务的价格除以基年一篮子物品与劳务的价格，然后把这个比率乘以子物品与劳务的价格，然后把这个比率乘以100，所得出的数字就是消费物价指数。，所得出的数字就是消费物价指数。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uCompute the inflation rate: The inflation rate is the percentage change in th

11、e price index from the preceding period. 计算通货膨胀率：计算通货膨胀率：通货膨胀率是从上一年通货膨胀率是从上一年以来物价指数的变动百分比。以来物价指数的变动百分比。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.1001 Year in CPI1 Year in CPI - 2 Year in CPI Year2in Rate InflationThe inflation rate is calculated as follows:通货膨胀率计算如下：通货膨胀

12、率计算如下：2CPI - 11001CPI 第 年第 年CPI第2年的通货膨胀率第 年Copyright2004 South-Western表表1. 计算消费物价指数和通货膨胀率：一个例子计算消费物价指数和通货膨胀率：一个例子第一步：调查消费者以确定固定的一篮子物品第一步：调查消费者以确定固定的一篮子物品4个热狗，个热狗，2个汉堡个汉堡Copyright2004 South-Western表表1. 计算消费物价指数和通货膨胀率：一个例子计算消费物价指数和通货膨胀率：一个例子第二步：找出每年每种物品的价格第二步：找出每年每种物品的价格年年热狗价格热狗价格汉堡价格汉堡价格Copyright2004

13、 South-Western表表1. 计算消费物价指数和通货膨胀率：一个例子计算消费物价指数和通货膨胀率：一个例子第三步：计算每年一篮子物品的费用第三步：计算每年一篮子物品的费用Copyright2004 South-Western表表1. 计算消费物价指数和通货膨胀率：一个例子计算消费物价指数和通货膨胀率：一个例子第四步：选择一年为基年（第四步：选择一年为基年（2001）并计算每年的消费物价指数）并计算每年的消费物价指数Copyright2004 South-Western表表1. 计算消费物价指数和通货膨胀率：一个例子计算消费物价指数和通货膨胀率：一个例子第五步：用消费物价指数计算自上一年

14、以来的通货膨胀率第五步：用消费物价指数计算自上一年以来的通货膨胀率Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uCalculating the Consumer Price Index and the Inflation Rate: Another ExampleBase Year is 2002.Basket of goods in 2002 costs $1,200.The same basket in 2004 costs $1,236.CPI = ($1,236/$1,200) 100 =

15、 103.Prices increased 3 percent between 2002 and 2004.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u计算消费物价指数和通货膨胀率：一计算消费物价指数和通货膨胀率：一个例子个例子基年选为基年选为2002.2002年这一篮子物品的费用是年这一篮子物品的费用是1200美元。美元。2004年同一篮子的费用是年同一篮子的费用是1236美元。美元。CPI = ($1,236/$1,200) 100 = 103.在在2002年至年至2004年间，物价上升了年

16、间，物价上升了3。16%Food andbeverages17%TransportationMedical care6%Recreation6%Apparel4%Other goodsand services4%41%Housing6%Education and communication16%食物与饮料17%Transportation 医疗6% 娱乐6% 美容4%其他物品与劳务4%41% 住房6% 教育和 通信 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.The CPI is an accur

17、ate measure of the selected goods that make up the typical bundle, but it is not a perfect measure of the cost of living.CPI是所选择的构成消费篮子的物品的准确衡是所选择的构成消费篮子的物品的准确衡量，但它并不是生活费用的完美衡量指标。量，但它并不是生活费用的完美衡量指标。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uSubstitution bias 替代倾向替代倾向uInt

18、roduction of new goods 新产品的引进新产品的引进uUnmeasured quality changes 无法衡量的质量变动无法衡量的质量变动Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uSubstitution BiasThe basket does not change to reflect consumer reaction to changes in relative prices. Consumers substitute toward goods that have

19、 become relatively less expensive. The index overstates the increase in cost of living by not considering consumer substitution.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u替代倾向替代倾向当不同产品的相对价格发生变化时，消费当不同产品的相对价格发生变化时，消费者会通过改变购买习惯对此有所反应，而者会通过改变购买习惯对此有所反应，而计算物价指数的市场篮子保持不变。计算物价

20、指数的市场篮子保持不变。 消费者转向购买变得相对便宜的替代物品。消费者转向购买变得相对便宜的替代物品。 消费物价指数不考虑这种消费者替代的可能消费物价指数不考虑这种消费者替代的可能性，从而高估了生活费用的增加。性，从而高估了生活费用的增加。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uIntroduction of New GoodsThe basket does not reflect the change in purchasing power brought on by the introd

21、uction of new products. New products result in greater variety, which in turn makes each dollar more valuable. Consumers need fewer dollars to maintain any given standard of living.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u新产品的引进新产品的引进当引进了一种新产品时，消费者有了更多的当引进了一种新产品时，消费者有了

22、更多的选择，使货币的购买力增加，计算消费物价选择，使货币的购买力增加，计算消费物价指数的市场篮子并没有反映这种变动指数的市场篮子并没有反映这种变动。 新产品的引进为消费者提供了更多的选择机会，新产品的引进为消费者提供了更多的选择机会，进而使每一美元更值钱。进而使每一美元更值钱。 消费者可以需要更少的美元来维持一定的生活水消费者可以需要更少的美元来维持一定的生活水平。平。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uUnmeasured Quality ChangesIf the quality o

23、f a good rises from one year to the next, the value of a dollar rises, even if the price of the good stays the same.If the quality of a good falls from one year to the next, the value of a dollar falls, even if the price of the good stays the same.The BLS tries to adjust the price for constant quali

24、ty, but such differences are hard to measure.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u无法衡量的质量变动无法衡量的质量变动如果从一年到下一年物品的质量上升了，即使该如果从一年到下一年物品的质量上升了，即使该物品的价格保持不变，一美元的价值也上升了。物品的价格保持不变，一美元的价值也上升了。如果从一年到下一年物品的质量变差了，即使该如果从一年到下一年物品的质量变差了，即使该物品的价格保持不变，一美元的价值也下降了。物品的价格保持不变，一美元的价值也下

25、降了。劳工统计局尽其最大努力调整价格来考虑质量变劳工统计局尽其最大努力调整价格来考虑质量变动，但是这些质量差异很难衡量。动，但是这些质量差异很难衡量。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uThe substitution bias, introduction of new goods, and unmeasured quality changes cause the CPI to overstate the true cost of living.uThe issue is importa

26、nt because many government programs use the CPI toadjust for changes in the overall level of prices.uThe CPI overstates inflation by about 1 percentage point per year. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u替代倾向、新产品的引进和无法衡量替代倾向、新产品的引进和无法衡量的质量变动导致的质量变动导致CPI高估了实际的生活高估了

27、实际的生活费用。费用。u这个问题之所以重要，是因为许多政府计这个问题之所以重要，是因为许多政府计划是用消费物价指数来调整物价总水平的划是用消费物价指数来调整物价总水平的变动的。变动的。uCPI每年高估了每年高估了1左右的通货膨胀率。左右的通货膨胀率。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.100GDP RealGDP Nominal=deflator GDPThe GDP deflator is calculated as follows:GDP平减指数计算如下：平减指数计算如下： GDPGD

28、P =100 GDP名义平减指数实际Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uThe BLS calculates other prices indexes: 劳工统计局还计算其他价格指数：劳工统计局还计算其他价格指数：uThe index for different regions within the country. 美国不同地区的价格指数。美国不同地区的价格指数。uThe producer price index, which measures the cost of a basket

29、 of goods and services bought by firms rather than consumers. 生产价格指数生产价格指数衡量厂商而不是消费者购买的衡量厂商而不是消费者购买的一篮子物品与劳务的费用。一篮子物品与劳务的费用。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uEconomists and policymakers monitor both the GDP deflator and the consumer price index to gauge how quic

30、kly prices are rising.uThere are two important differences between the indexes that can cause them to diverge.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u经济学家和政策制订者为了估计物价上经济学家和政策制订者为了估计物价上升有多快，即要关注升有多快，即要关注GDP平减指数，又平减指数，又要关注消费物价指数。要关注消费物价指数。u有两个重要的差别导致这两个数字不一有两个重要的差别导致这两个

31、数字不一致。致。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uThe GDP deflator reflects the prices of all goods and services produced domestically, whereas.uthe consumer price index reflects the prices of all goods and services bought by consumers.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived i

32、tems copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uGDP 平减指数平减指数反映了反映了国内生产国内生产的所有的所有物品与劳务的价格，而物品与劳务的价格，而.u 消费物价指数消费物价指数反映反映消费者购买消费者购买的所的所有物品与劳务的价格。有物品与劳务的价格。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uThe consumer price index compares the price of a fixed basket of goods and services t

33、o the price of the basket in the base year (only occasionally does the BLS change the basket).uwhereas the GDP deflator compares the price of currently produced goods and services to the price of the same goods and services in the base year.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Ha

34、rcourt, Inc.u消费物价指数消费物价指数 比较比较固定固定的一篮子物品的一篮子物品与劳务的价格与基年这一篮子物品与与劳务的价格与基年这一篮子物品与劳务的价格（劳工局只是偶尔改变这劳务的价格（劳工局只是偶尔改变这一篮子物品）一篮子物品）.u而而GDP平减指数平减指数比较比较现期生产现期生产的物的物品与劳务的价格与基年同样物品与劳品与劳务的价格与基年同样物品与劳务的价格。务的价格。1965Percentper Year15CPIGDP deflator10501970197519801985199020001995每年百分比每年百分比GDP平减指数平减指数消费物价指数消费物价指数Harc

35、ourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uPrice indexes are used to correct for the effects of inflation when comparing dollar figures from different times. 当比较不同时点当比较不同时点 上美元数字时，价格上美元数字时，价格指数被用来校正通货膨胀的影响。指数被用来校正通货膨胀的影响。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001

36、by Harcourt, Inc.uDo the following to convert (inflate) Babe Ruths wages in 1931 to dollars in 2001:SalarySalaryPrice level in 2001Price level in 193120011931$80,.$931,00017715 2579Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u通过以下计算将巴波通过以下计算将巴波.鲁思的鲁思的1931年的薪水转换年的薪水转换成按成按19

37、99年美元计算的薪水：年美元计算的薪水：1 9 9 91 9 3 1 1 9 9 9 = 1 9 3 11 6 6= $ 8 0 , 0 0 01 5 . 2= $ 8 7 3 , 6 8 4物价水平薪水薪水物价水平Copyright2004 South-WesternHarcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.片名片名上映上映年代年代按按1999年美元估算年美元估算的国内总票房收入的国内总票房收入（百万美元）（百万美元）1.乱世佳人乱世佳人2.星球大战星球大战3.音乐之声音乐之声4.泰坦尼克号泰

38、坦尼克号5.外星人：外星人入侵外星人：外星人入侵6.十诫十诫7.大白鲨大白鲨8.日瓦戈医生日瓦戈医生9.丛林日记丛林日记10.白雪公主白雪公主1939197719651997198219561975196519671937920789638601601587574543485476Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.When some dollar amount is automatically corrected for inflation by law or contract the

39、amount is said to be indexed for inflation.当某一美元量根据法律或合约自动地按通当某一美元量根据法律或合约自动地按通货膨胀校正时，这种美元量就称为通货膨货膨胀校正时，这种美元量就称为通货膨胀的指数化。胀的指数化。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.Interest represents a payment in the future for a transfer of money in the past.利率代表未来要为过去转移的货币进行支利率代表

40、未来要为过去转移的货币进行支付。付。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uThe nominal interest rate is the interest rate not corrected for inflation. uIt is the interest rate that a bank pays.uThe real interest rate is the nominal interest rate that is corrected for inflation.Real in

41、terest rate = (Nominal interest rate Inflation rate)Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u名义利率名义利率 是没有根据通货膨胀校正的利是没有根据通货膨胀校正的利率。率。 u它是银行所支付的利率。它是银行所支付的利率。u实际利率实际利率 是根据通货膨胀校正的利率。是根据通货膨胀校正的利率。实际利率实际利率 = 名义利率名义利率 通货膨胀率通货膨胀率Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyrigh

42、t 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uYou borrowed $1,000 for one year.uNominal interest rate was 15%. uDuring the year inflation was 10%.Real interest rate = Nominal interest rate Inflation= 15% - 10% = 5%Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u你向银行借了你向银行借了1,000美元，期限一年。美元，期限一年。u名

43、义利率是名义利率是 15%。u这一年中通货膨胀率是这一年中通货膨胀率是 10%。实际利率实际利率 = 名义利率名义利率 通货膨胀率通货膨胀率= 15% - 10% = 5%1965Interest Rates(percentper year)15Real interest rate105051970197519801985199019952000Nominal interest rate利率利率（每年百分比）（每年百分比）名义利率名义利率实际利率实际利率Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.

44、uThe consumer price index shows the cost of a basket of goods and services relative to the cost of the same basket in the base year.uThe index is used to measure the overall level of prices in the economy.uThe percentage change in the CPI measures the inflation rate.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived

45、items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u消费物价指数表示相对于基年一篮子物品消费物价指数表示相对于基年一篮子物品与劳务的费用，这一篮子物品与劳务的费与劳务的费用，这一篮子物品与劳务的费用是多少。用是多少。u这个指数用于衡量经济中的物价总水平。这个指数用于衡量经济中的物价总水平。u消费物价指数变动的百分比衡量通货膨胀消费物价指数变动的百分比衡量通货膨胀率。率。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uThe consumer price index is an imperfect measure of the cost of living for the following three reasons: substitution bias, the introduction of new goods, and unmeasured changes in quality.uBecause of measur