应用统计学（第四版） 第九章 案例分析

1、序号营业额Y124222353232417851846140714581529110101301115212206132631423815247161931719318149191572016121122221302316724230252812625527265282052921030160311663217433126341483517336235近三年月营业额时间序列图1357911131517192123252729313335050100150200250300近三年月营业额时间序列图1357911131517192123252729313335050100150200250300客

2、客乐乐饭饭店店近近三三年年各各月月饮饮料料的的营营业业额额季季节节变变动动表表月份近3年近2年近1年三年合计月平均季节比率% 季节变差1242263281786262.00139.6574.392235238255728242.67129.3555.063232247265744248.00132.1960.394178193205576192.00102.344.395184193210587195.67104.298.066140149160449149.6779.77-37.947145157166468156.0083.15-31.618152161174487162.3386.53-

3、25.289110122126358119.3363.61-68.2810130130148408136.0072.49-51.6111152167173492164.0087.41-23.6112206230235671223.67119.2236.06合计21062250239867542251.331200.00平均175.50187.50199.83562.83187.61100（4）（5）15.93月份消除季节变动后的近1年数据1201.222197.153200.474200.315201.356200.567199.648201.099198.0910204.1711197.91

4、12197.12标准差2.0678295.00/139.65%=211.2415224.135636.2034平均值199.92206.13来年营业额预测季节比率预测季节变差预测279.07274.22258.48254.89264.16260.22204.51204.22208.41207.89159.42161.89166.16168.22172.91174.56127.11131.56144.86148.22174.68176.22238.24235.89近三年的饮料的营业额逐步增加.有必要剔除长期趋势后，再来分析季节变动情况。移移动动平平均均趋趋势势剔剔除除法法客客乐乐饭饭店店饮饮料料

5、营营业业额额的的季季节节变变动动测测定定年 月月饮料营业额（千元）移动平均数季节比率季节比率的平均数近3年 1242223532324178518461407145176.375000.82211282.81%8152177.375000.85694285.28%9110178.125000.61754462.79%10130179.375000.72473970.02%11152180.375000.84268985.26%12206181.125001.137336115.90%近2年 1263182.000001.445055144.07%2238182.875001.301435129

6、.94%3247183.750001.344218134.38%4193184.250001.047490104.10%5193184.875001.043949104.92%6149186.500000.79892880.02%7157188.250000.83399711.9949288161189.708330.8486719122191.166670.63818710130192.416670.67561711167193.625000.86249212230194.791671.180749近1年 1281195.625001.4364222255196.541671.2974353

7、265197.250001.3434734205198.166671.0344835210199.166671.0543936160199.625000.801503716681749126101481117312235两种计算季节指数方法比较：以上计算结果重新排列月份趋势剔除法季节指数按月平均法季节指数月份ty(2)()ttMT=t ttty SIT =jSjS =1144.13%139.65%12130.00%129.35%23134.44%132.19%34104.14%102.34%45104.96%104.29%5680.06%79.77%6782.84%83.15%7885.32%

8、86.53%8962.81%63.61%91070.05%72.49%101185.30%87.41%1112115.95%119.22%12季节指数调整系数1.00042382.84%85.32%62.81%70.05%85.30%115.95%144.13%130.00%134.44%104.14%104.96%80.06%12.000000趋势剔除法季节指数来年营业额预测212* jS12jS * jS =移移动动平平均均趋趋势势剔剔除除法法客客乐乐饭饭店店饮饮料料营营业业额额的的季季节节变变动动测测定定144.13%305.5656784305.57130.00%275.5967276

9、275.6134.44%285.015652285.02104.14%220.7824103220.78104.96%222.5182938222.5280.06%169.717359169.7282.84%175.6218169175.6285.32%180.8713954180.8762.81%133.1637093133.1670.05%148.5004833148.585.30%180.8255903180.83115.95%245.8208837245.82年份国内生产总值(亿元)20009921520011096552002121717.420031374222004161840.

10、22005187318.92006219438.52007270232.32008319515.52009349081.42010413030.32011489300.62012540367.42013595244.420146439742015685505.8年底人口数人均国内生产总值职工平均工资*(万人)(元/人)(元)1267437858937112762786221087012845393981242212922710666140401288401299881248716024129608130756143681836413037213144816738210011311021321292050524932131789132802241212922913246613345026222327361331261340913087637147133771134735364034245213441313540440007475931350701360724385252388135738136782472035736113642713