RealEstate房地产

1、REAL ESTATEREAL ESTATEf13061106 严智颖f13061109 宋紫嫣f13061121 谢雯f13061114 赵晴f13061314 唐钰棋f13061119 朱康丽China housing market幻灯片 18Subprime mortgage crisis幻灯片 7Real estate bubbleFinancial concepts News on real estate financial conceptMortages loansA mortage loan is used by purchasers of real property to ra

2、ise funds to buy real estate; or by existing property owners to raise funds for any purpose while putting a lien on the property being mortaged.CollateralCollateral, especially within banking, traditionally refers to secured lending (also known as asset-based lending). More complex collateralization

3、 arrangements may be used to secure trade transactions (also known as capital market collateralization). REITsA real estate investment trust (REIT) is a company that owns, and in most cases, operates income-producing real estate. REITs own many types of commercial real estate, ranging from office an

4、d apartment buildings to warehouses, hospitals, shopping centers, hotels and even timberlands. down payment 房贷首付0101Collateralized Debt Obligation It packs all mortgages together and repack, and then publish it on the market in the form of products.债务抵押债券0202Credit Default Swap CDS is a financial sw

5、ap agreement that the seller of the CDS will compensate the buyer in the event of a loan defaulor other credit event.信用违约掉期0303Prime Mortgages 优级债券0404other important words返回A real estate bubble occurs periodically in real estate markets, typically following a land boom（the rapid increase in valuati

6、ons of real property）until they reach unsustainable levels and then decline in a bubble.Real estate bubbleThe limitation and scarcity of land resource The expanding investment demandThe over mortgage lending of financial institutionCause? Real estate bubblefurther drives demand, prices go upspeculat

7、ors enter the housing market for potential profit supply falls short of demand, real estate prices increase demands, speculation, and the collective belief Main characteristicsBubble burst!Demand decreases or simply stagnates while supply continues to increase, causing a sharp decline in prices.Cons

8、equences返回none payment of a debt when due拖欠债务subprime loanbanks or financial institutions provide loan to people who are not qualified to have Prime rate, and those people usually have low credit levelforeclosurethe legal proceeding initiated by a creditor to reposses the collateral for loan that is

9、 default止赎权（没收担保品）delinquency Subprime Mortgage CrisisSubprime Mortgage Crisis What is What is ？Subprime Mortgage Crisis Why Why diddid occur？financial institutions, regulators, U.S housing bubble, credit agencies, government housing policies, consumers and so onblame tothe rise in subprime lendingp

10、roximate causecausesthe percentage of lower-quality subprime mortgage orignated during a given year rose from the historical 7.4% to nearly 23% U.S home pricesAfter peaked in mid-2006Diffiuclt forrefinance their loansSecurities and banksthe risk of bankruptcySubprime Mortgage Crisis The influence of

11、 The influence of 1234severe, long-lasting consequences for the U.S and European economiesnearly 9 million jobs lost during 2008-2009lost output from the crisis comes to “at least 40% of 2007 GDP” LU.S housing prices fell nearly 30% ; the U.S stock market fell nearly 50% by early 20090303STEPSTEP020

12、2STEPSTEP0101STEPSTEPThe real estate bubble in Chinainterest rate influences real estateinflation influences real estateTHE REAL ESTATE BUBBLE in ChinaReal estate in China has experienced a remarkable expansion in recent yearsl It reached its most rapid expansion between 2002 and 2009, when average

13、housing prices triple.House price change (Shanghai)% change over a year earlierSource: eHomedayQ1 Q2 Q3 Q4表示季度House Price rise or fall is determined by the objective conditions and economic law. Economic law is up for a long time then will fall, and down for a long time then will be up.房价上涨或下跌是由客观条件

14、和经济规律决定的。经济规律就是涨久必跌，跌久必涨。Reasons for the rapid rise in housing price:l Before 2000 stomach first. After 2000 consumption upgraded. l home ownership a necessity.l Government policies ：low interest rates and cheap credit.l Global investment. WTO global investors led to the prosperity of Chinas real es

15、tate.l The IT crisis in US in 2009 a wide(量宽) enter into China it began to fried Chinas house Factors influence real estate.Interest ratesInflationOther policiesRange：supply, the living consumption and investment demand .Theoretically p The real estate development company use Interest rate as a Capi

16、tal cost. When the expected return on investment of capital marginal is lower than the interest rate, the effective supply of the real estate market will be seriously restrained.p Raising interest rates will increase the fund pressure on purchasers. So rising interest rates will lead some consumers to exit or delay their purchases.p If the expected return on investment for investors cannot compensate for the loss of income, higher interest rates that investors will be turned to their other inves