生产计划与控制实验报告 (1)

1、生产计划与控制实验报告 (1) OperationsManagement ExperimentationReport Name:陈凡 Class:工业gc1102 Studentnumber:0121104930822 SchoolofMechanicalandElectricalEngineering TheWuhanUniversityofTechnology 12.11.20XX Experimentation1: QuantitativeDemandingForecasting 4年则大体呈下降趋势。原因可能是国家政策转变或是销售地点转变引起的转变，所以做预估时舍弃前3年的数据。 再观

2、看数据发觉离散程度很小，俩变量相关性很强，所以使用线性规划的话能较精确合适地预估下一年四季度的销量。 假如是用移动平均或指数平滑的话，预估4季度则预估范围显得过大，如3，4季度可能需用到1,2季度销量的预估值所以可能预估误差偏大。 本次预估供应了40个数据，而且数据相关性较强，使用线性规划，借用专业软件工作量也不大。所以综合考虑选用线性规划的方法进行预估，且不需要考虑季节因素。*TIMESERIESREGRESSIONFORECASTING* -PROBLEMNAME:Untitled -SalesSalesABSOLUTE PERIODACTUALFORECASTERROR 1319.000

3、314.6724.328 2324.000322.3291.671 3336.000329.9856.015 4340.000337.6422.358 5348.000345.2992.701 6355.000352.9552.045 7354.000360.6126.612 8367.000368.2681.268 9375.000375.9250.925 10379.000383.5814.581 11385.000391.2386.238 12396.000398.8942.894 13404.000406.5512.551 14416.000414.2071.793 15422.000

4、421.8640.136 16430.000429.5210.479 17436.000437.1771.177 18439.000444.8345.834 19450.000452.4902.490 20459.000460.1471.147 21470.000467.8032.197 22475.000475.4600.460 23485.000483.1161.884 24489.000490.7731.773 25505.000498.4296.571 26513.000506.0866.914 27516.000513.7422.258 28518.000521.3993.399 -

5、SalesCONFIDENCEINTERVAL(90%) PERIODFORECASTLOWERBOUNDUPPERBOUND29529.056522.695535.416 30536.712530.351543.073 31544.369538.008550.729 32552.025545.664558.386 REGRESSIONEQUATION:Y=a+bX WHERE:Y=SalesX=TIMEPERIOD a=307.0159b=7.6565 R=0.998R-SQUARE=0.9966 MEANABSOLUTEDEVIATION(MAD)FORTHELAST28PERIODS=2

6、.953 MEANSQUAREDERROR(MSE)FORALLPASTPERIODS=12.909 MEANERROR(bias)FORALLPASTPERIODS=0.0 STANDARDERROR(sigmasubyx)IS=3.7285 相关系数R=0.998肯定系数R2=0.996 可以看出，自变量和应变量的相关性很强，故此预估使用的方法线性回归精确度较高。肯定误差MAD反应预估精度，本试验预估精度为2.953，说明预估精度很高。 标准差反应数据的离散程度，本试验标准差为3.7285，较小，数据离散程度低。 此次预估肯定肯定系数很高，自变量和应变量的相关性很强，因此本人对线性回归的预

7、估值很有信念。 用另一种长期预估模型季节性线性回归再一次进行预估，得出结果: R=0.989,R-SQUARE=0.9771, MEANABSOLUTEDEVIATION(MAD)FORTHELAST28PERIODS=7.927, MEANSQUAREDERROR(MSE)RORALLPASTPERIODS=86.5, MEANERROR(bias)FORALLPASTPERIODS=-0.152, STANDARDERROR(sigmasubyx)IS=9.6552 对比可以看出本次结果中相关系数与肯定系数小于上组，所以，无需考虑季节性因素影响的预估模型。 Experimentation2

8、:LinearProgramming（LP）Case1：QualityPixelsInc. *LINEARPROGRAMMING* =PROBLEMNAME:Untitled =MinZ=180X1+160X2+60X3+40X4+120X5+150X6+90X7+30X8 +150X9+130X10+190X11+140X12+40X13+35X14+160X15+150X16+110X17+125X18+80X19+105X20+95X21+125X22+60X23+50X24 ST (1)1X1+1X2+1X3+1X4+1X5+1X6=15000 (6)1X2+1X8+1X14+1X20

9、>=15000 (7)1X3+1X9+1X15+1X21>=15000 (8)1X4+1X10+1X16+1X22>=20000 (9)1X5+1X11+1X17+1X23>=20000 (10)1X6+1X12+1X18+1X24>=15000 (11)1X1+1X7+1X13+1X19=40.0000.-30000. 6>=30.0000.-20000. 7>=95.00010000.-25000. 8>=75.00015000.-30000. 9>=60.0000.-30000. 10>=50.0000.-25000. 11&l

10、t;=0.00015000.-+INF 12<=0.00015000.-+INF 13<=0.00015000.-+INF 14<=0.00020000.-+INF 15<=0.00020000.-+INF 16<=0.00015000.-+INF NOTE:THESHADOWPRICEREPRESENTSTHEAMOUNTZWOULD CHANGEIFACONSTRAINT'SRHSCHANGEDONEUNIT. - DECISIONVARIABLES: - NONBASICAMOUNTZISREDUCED(MAX)ORINCREASED(MIN) VA

11、RIABLEFORONEUNITOFXINTHESOLUTION - X1175. X2165. X595. X6135. X750. X955. X1055. X11130. X1290. X145. X1565. X1675. X1750. X1875. X1940. X2075. X2250. - Increasedto36,000pallets? 答：墨西哥的生产能力削减到26000，成本会增加；增加到36000，成本削减。 4.3HowcouldcostschangeiftheminimumannualrequirementsattheDallaswarehousedecreased

12、to14,000pallets?Increasedto24,000pallets? 答：当Dallas的最小需求削减到14000，成本削减；增大到24000，成本会增加。 4.4您好！由上面的计算可知：slack2slack3slack4均大于0，这表示Seoul、HongKong、Warsaw所对应的资源有剩余，若要减小生产成本，可以提高墨西哥工厂的生产能力。由影子价格可知，当其产量在20000-35000时，生产每增加一个单位成本会增加35，当产量超过35000时，成本会下降。 注：1、影子价格：在其它条件不变的状况下，单位资源变化所引起的目标函数的最优值的变化。这个定义是基于线性规划中的

13、合理利用有限资源以求得最好的经济效果的规划问题。影子价格正是这种假设条件中单位资源对目标极值的贡献，是资源的单位价格，反映资源在企业内部运用的贡献状况，称之为资源的影子价格。通过对偶规划方程求得。 2、松弛变量（slackvariablevalues）：若所研究的线性规划模型的约束条件全是小于类型，那么可以通过标准化过程引入M个非负的松弛变量。当约束条件为“”（“”）类型的线性规划问题，可在不等式左边加上（或者减去）一个非负的新变量，即可化为等式。这个新增的非负变量称为松弛变量（或剩余变量），也可统称为松弛变量。在目标函数中一般认为新增的松弛变量的系数为零。 case2：IntegratedP

14、roductsCorporation *LINEARPROGRAMMING* =PROBLEMNAME:Untitled =MinZ=152X1+120X2+165X3+139X4+169X5+49X6+65X7 +55X8+50X9+60X10+65X11+55X12+60X13+45X14 +65X15+75X16+85X17+69X18+81X19+79X20+120X21 +122X22+125X23+136X24+119X25 ST (1)1X1+1X2+1X3+1X4+1X5=1 (2)1X6+1X7+1X8+1X9+1X10=1 (3)1X11+1X12+1X13+1X14+1X

15、15=1 (4)1X16+1X17+1X18+1X19+1X20=1 (5)1X21+1X22+1X23+1X24+1X25=1 (6)1X1+1X6+1X11+1X16+1X21=1 (7)1X2+1X7+1X12+1X17+1X22=1 (8)1X3+1X8+1X13+1X18+1X23=1 (9)1X4+1X9+1X14+1X19+1X24=1 (10)1X5+1X10+1X15+1X20+1X25=1 =SOLUTION: =ITERATIONNUMBER16 VARIABLEMIXSOLUTION - X21.000 X120.000 X181.000 X141.000 X251.0

16、00 X61.000 X110.000 X160.000 X210.000 Artificial100.000 Z402.000 AssignmentProblemSolution Dest1Dest2Dest3Dest4Dest5 Object101000 Object210000 Object300010 Object400100 Object500001 Totalcostorprofitis$402 =SENSITIVITYANALYSIS: =CONSTRAINTS: - RANGEOFRHS CONSTRAINTTYPEOFSHADOWFORWHICHSHADOW NUMBERCO

17、NSTRAINTPRICEPRICEISVALID - NOTE:RHSshadowpricesarenotmeaningful foranassignmentproblem. - DECISIONVARIABLES: - NONBASICAMOUNTZISREDUCED(MAX)ORINCREASED(MIN) VARIABLEFORONEUNITOFXINTHESOLUTION - NOTE:Herearenonbasicvariableswithzeroshadow prices.Othershadowpricevaluesareof questionablevalueinassignm

18、entproblems. - 7.1Fullyinterpretthemeaningofthesolutionthatyouobtainedin3.2.InotherwordswhatshouldmanageratIPCdo?Fullyexplainthemeaningofslackvariablevalues. 答：方案如下： 1teamcompletesB 2teamcompletesA 3teamcompletesD 4teamcompletesC 5teamcompletesE 7.2Howcouldthesolutionchangeiffurtheranalysisresultedi

19、nincreasingthedevelopmentcostofprojectCbyteam2from$55,000to$65,000?Withthenewinformation,towhichteamswouldtheprojectsbeassigned? 答：方案不变。 7.3HowcouldthesolutionchangeiffurtheranalysisresultedindecreasingthedevelopmentcostofprojectEbyteam2from$122,000to$115,000?Withthenewinformation,towhichteamswouldt

20、heprojectsbeassigned? 答：方案不变 7.4AdviseIPCmanagertohelphisdecision-making.(Notlessthan300words) 答：您好！这个问题是运筹学中的一个指派问题，运用科学的计算可知，队伍1完成B任务，队伍2完成A任务，队伍3完成D任务，队伍4完成C任务，队伍5完成E任务，总的花费是最少的。除去花费因素，公司还应考虑其队伍完成任务的效率及和质量。 Experimentation3: ResourceRequirementPlanning:MRP *MATERIALSREQUIREMENTSPLANNING(MRP)* =PR

21、OBLEMNAME:Untitled =ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLot CodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize BS74001000LFL WeekNumber:12345678- GrossRequirements00000100100100ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements00000100100100PlannedOrderReceipts00000100100100PlannedOrderReleases00001001001000=A481130

22、030LFL GrossRequirements00003003003000ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements00003003003000PlannedOrderReceipts00003003003000PlannedOrderReleases00030030030000-=B131120XX0LFL GrossRequirements000020XX002000ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements000020XX002000Plann

23、edOrderReceipts000020XX002000PlannedOrderReleases00020XX0020000=C561110010LFL GrossRequirements00001001001000ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements00001001001000PlannedOrderReceipts00001001001000PlannedOrderReleases00010010010000= D53140010085LFL GrossRequirements160710800120XX006

24、0000ScheduledReceipts00000000Available21555000000NetRequirements0655800120XX0060000PlannedOrderReceipts0655800120XX0060000PlannedOrderReleases655800120XX00600000=E22211305060MIN=500+ GrossRequirements00060060060000ScheduledReceipts00000000Available202020200000NetRequirements00058060060000PlannedOrde

25、rReceipts00058060060000PlannedOrderReleases00580600600000=F4323905020MIN=250+ GrossRequirements00020XX0020000ScheduledReceipts00000000Available2020202070120XX0170NetRequirements0001801308000PlannedOrderReceipts00025025025000PlannedOrderReleases25025025000000=G7221005020MIN=100+ GrossRequirements0002

26、0XX0020000ScheduledReceipts00000000Available303030300000NetRequirements00017020XX0000PlannedOrderReceipts00017020XX0000PlannedOrderReleases017020XX000000=H6N211205040LFL GrossRequirements00040040040000ScheduledReceipts00000000Available303030300000NetRequirements00037040040000PlannedOrderReceipts0003

27、7040040000PlannedOrderReleases00370400400000=I823903020LFL GrossRequirements00020XX0020000ScheduledReceipts00000000Available404040400000 NetRequirements00016020XX0000PlannedOrderReceipts00016020XX0000PlannedOrderReleases16020XX0000000=IN=1000+ GrossRequirements00030030030000ScheduledReceipts00000000Available40404040740440140140NetRequirements0002600000PlannedOrderR