汇丰银行全球建材与建筑行业汇丰建筑业监测2019年进入负增长

1、10 July 2019THIS CONTENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED TO THE PEOPLE'S (EXCLUDING SPECIAL ADMINISTRATIVE REGIONS OF(THE "PRC")AND MACAO)HSBC Global Construction ex-China Lead Indicator score slipped into negative in 2019 on broadening EM weaknessKey Buys: US infrastructure plays CRH and Buzzi

2、,China- exposed CRC and CRCC; Europe-exposed Eiffage, Rockwool, Strabag and Saint GobainTempered growth prospects and elevated valuations in Indonesia and India: Reduce Semen Indonesia, Indocement, Ultratech Cement and Shree CementuJohn Fraser-Andrews* AnalystHSBC Bank plcjohn.fraser-andrews+44 20 7

3、991 6732Anderson Chow*Global Co-Head of Industrials ResearchuTheand Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedandersonchow.hkuBrijesh Siya*Analyst, Building MaterialsHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limitedbrijeshkumarsiyahsbc.co.in+91 80 4555 2716Howard Lau*, CFAAnalyst, Materials &

4、; InfrastructureWidespread weakness in EM; Infrastructure led strength in DMOur proprietary Construction Monitor tracks over 300 construction lead indicator and activity data points in 28 countries; our 12 key calls are chosen from 48 stocks,covered by 14 analysts from different regions and construc

5、tion-related sub sectors.Theand Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedhoward.h.b.lau.hkChristian Korth*European Construction Analyst HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt AG christian korthhsbc.deEM induced Global indicator weakness: Our ex-China Global lead indicator score (p6) has deteriorated from its peak

6、 in August 2018, slipping into negative territory, to -0.2 in April 2019 (20% of the lowest possible score -1.0). This reflects EM weakness, where there has been a broadening of the deterioration in EM countries from pockets of Africa / Middle East to 12 of the total 17 EM countries that we track. T

7、his move down since August 2018 (see HSBC Global Construction Monitor: Stable at a broadly based high,16 August 2018) has been partly offset by improvement in the UK, Philippines and Brazil.Pierre Bosset*Head of French Equity Research HSBC Bank plc, Paris branch pierre.bosset+33 1 56 52 43 10Colin D

8、avis*, CFAHead of ASEAN Equity ResearchDM stable at nearum score: Developed Markets aggregate score is helpedTheand Shanghai Banking CorporationLimited, Singapore Branch colin.davis.sgby continued strength in US infrastructure and joined by improved Europeinfrastructure. US residential indicators ar

9、e stabilising after falling for most of H2 2018 and early 2019, while Europe residential indicators have further weakened in 2019.Rajesh Lachhani*Analyst, Ms & Mining, MaterialsChina lead indicators have moderated, albeit the growth rate remains strong, particularly in infrastructure; this is po

10、sitive for our Buy-rated stocks, CR Cement (1313 HK) and CRCC (1186 HK). Our India score at April 2019 was impacted by disruption during the run-up to the countrys general election in March-May 2019, but we believe it will revert to growth from Q3 2019. India and Indonesias tempered growth outlooks

11、and elevated valuations can be played through our Reduce-rated stocks, Ultratech Cement (UTCEM IN), Shree Cement (SRCM IN), Semen Indonesia(SMGR IJ) and Indocement (INTP IJ).HSBC Securi ies and Capital Markets (India) Private Limited rajeshvlachhanihsbc.co.in+91 22 6164 0687 * Employed by a non-US a

12、ffiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsOur key Buys exposed to the US infrastructure pick-up are CRH (43% US sales; CRH ID), and Buzzi (40%; BZU IM). The strength in Europe infrastructure and the general upturn can be played through Buy-r

13、ated Eiffage (FGR FP), Rockwool(ROCKB DC), Strabag (STR AV) and Saint Gobain (SGO FP).Issuer of report: HSBC Bank plcDisclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.Vi

14、ew HSBC Global Research at:HSBC Global Construction MonitorSlipping into negative territory in 2019EquitiesBuilding Materials and ConstructionGlobal获取报告1、2、3、每周群内7+报告；当日华尔街日报、4、行研报告均为公开利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫关注 回复：加入“起点财经”群。Equities Building Materials and Construction10 July 2019How to use the moni

15、torWe track over 300 construction lead indicator and activity data series in 28 countries, for which our Global Building Materials team forecasts cement consumption and prices. The HSBC Global Construction Monitor combines these data series into a separate lead indicator and activity score by end-ma

16、rket (residential, non-residential and civil engineering), country, region and globally.We use heatmaps and graphs to illustrate these scores.Exhibit 1: The productSource: HSBCHow to read The HSBC Global Construction Lead Indicator & Activity MonitorThe regional scores are an aggregation of indi

17、vidual country readings, whose scores are the sum of their end-market weightings by cement consumption. Given the wide variation in volatility of data series across countries, we have diffused the developed country growth rates to a score of+1 for y-o-y growth at 2% or above, -1 for contraction belo

18、w -2% and 0 for movement between+1.9% to -1.9%. Similarly we have diffused emerging country growth rates to a score of +1 fory-o-y growth at 4% or above (previously 2%), -1 for contraction below -4% (previously -2%) and 0for movement between +3.9% to -3.9%.Key calls Buy and Reduce rated stocks expos

19、ed to highlighted themesOur key calls selected for their exposure to the themes highlighted by our lead indicators are extrapolated from a list of 51 building materials, construction related capital goods andconstruction contractors from our global equity coverage universe, covered by 14 analysts.Ex

20、hibit 2: Our key calls and implied upside/downsideCompanyRICCuurencyCurrent priceTarget priceUpside / Downside73.7%RatingCRCCRockwool CRCBuzzi Strabag Saint Gobain CRHEiffage1186.HK ROCKb.CO 1313.HK BZU.MI STRV.VI SGOB.PA CRH.I FOUG.PAHKD DKK HKD EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR IDR IDR INR INR9.51,673.07.818.73

21、1.834.630.390.112,575.021,200.04,645.421,605.316.52,750.010.523.037.040.035.0103.09,200.015,500.03,200.013,300.0Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Reduce Reduce Reduce Reduce64.4%34.8%23.1%16.4%15.8%15.6%14.3%-26.8%-26.9%-31.1%-38.4%Semen Indonesia SMGR.JK IndocementINTP.JKUltratechULTC.BOShree Cements

22、 SHCM.BOSource: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC estimates, Price as on 4 July 2019 close2Equities Building Materials and Construction10 July 2019Global ex-China LeadIndicator: negative in 2019EM weakness broadens from pockets of Africa / Middle East to more than two-thirds of EM countries that we trackDM

23、 strength supported by infrastructure in US and Europe; stabilising residential indicators in US, but deteriorating further in EuropeKey Buys are skewed towards high exposure to US infrastructure, Europe and China; our key Reduce calls are in Indonesia and IndiauuuGlobal ex-China Lead indicator scor

24、e slipped into negative in 2019The HSBC Global Construction Lead Indicator ex-China score slipped into negative territory in February 2019, on a continued decline in EM ex-China, from its peak in August 2018. The slight Africa Middle East weakness that we flagged in our last monitor (Stable at a bro

25、adly based high,16 August 2018) has now broadened to most of Africa and Asia. The developed countries score(0.9) is near theum level of 1.0, helped by continued strength in US infrastructure and joinedby improved Europe infrastructure. US residential indicators are stabilising after falling through

26、mostof H2 2018 and early 2019, while Europe residential indicators have weakened further in 2019.The positive US lead indicators favour US-exposed calls that should benefit from the construction activity upturn that we see and pricing strength in materials; our key Buy-rated stocks here are CRH (43%

27、 US sales) and Buzzi (40%). Infrastructure strength in Europesupports our Buy calls on Saint Gobain, Rockwool, Eiffage and Strabag.Key Buy calls are DM and China playsMeanwhile, the continued resilienceand improving cement industry dynamics can beplayed through our Buy-rated stocks, CRC and CRCC.In

28、contrast, we see tempered growth outlooks in Indonesia and India; this, combined with high stockvaluations, can be played through our Reduce-rated calls: Semen Indonesia; Indocement (both 100% exposed to Indonesia); Ultratech Cement (96% India); and Shree Cement (100% India).US infrastructure the ke

29、y bright spot amid EM-led global deteriorationThe HSBC Construction Lead Indicator Global ex-China score fell to -0.2 in the 13 months toApril 2019, versus theum score of 1.0, with EM slipping to a -0.5 score and DMmaintaining a high score of 0.9, as a positive swing in the UK to neutral from negati

30、ve is offsetby a reversal in Sweden from positive to neutral. We see the highlights of the regional and country level lead indicator data as follows:uThe US lead indicator score slipped to neutral for 5 months either side of the new year andonly recovered to theum level of 1.0 in April 2019 on the s

31、tabilisation of residentialindicators and the strength in infrastructure. The Associated Builders & Contractorsconstruction infrastructure backlog indicator rebounded sharply to its highest level since3Equities Building Materials and Construction10 July 20192009 to 13.1 months in April 2019, aft

32、er hitting a four-year low in January 2019. The American Road & Transportation Builders Association highway project awards ex California are 7% higher YTD to May. The 80bps fall in Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage rates from the near-term peak of 4.9% in November 2018 is leading to a revival i

33、n US residential demand. Mortgage volumes were up 3.8% in the first five months of 2019 and new home sales growth has accelerated from 3% in January to 8% in March-April 2019. The Dodge Momentum Index, which tracks planning permission for non-residential building projects and leads actual spending b

34、y up to a year, fell 3% in the first five months of 2019 and is down 11% from the peak of July 2018, albeit the project pipeline suggests near-term stability in construction activity. Canadas lead indicators remained positive in both non- residential and civil engineering, while residential slipped

35、to neutral in April 2019.The Western European country scores were almost universally positive to April 2019, with the exception of Sweden (which slipped into neutral in April 2019) and the UK. However residential permits data remain negative in France, Sweden and the Netherlands, where residential s

36、tarts fell 4-6% in 2019, despite favourable weather conditions in Q1.Netherlands permits fell 26% in Q1 2019, which we believe is a temporary hiatus after a strong cumulative 156% growth in permits in the 4 years to 2017 and a flat 2018.The EM ex-China scores accelerated to 0.7 in August 2018, befor

37、e slipping into negative territory from February 2019 (-0.5), caused by a broadening of weakness from pockets of Africa / Middle East in March 2018 to most EMs in April 2019. All countries scores except Philippines in Asia, Brazil in Latin America and Saudi Arabia in Africa Middle East wereeither ne

38、utral (0) or negative (-1).uuExhibit 3: HSBC Global Construction Lead Indicator slipped into negative territory0.0-0.4-0.8-1.2Global ex-ChinaEM ex-ChinaChinaNorth AmericaWest EuropeSource: HSBC, Refinitiv Datastream, CEIC, Markit, National sources4Feb-16Apr-16Jun-16Aug-16 Oct-16Dec-16Feb-17

39、 Apr-17Jun-17Aug-17 Oct-17Dec-17Feb-18Apr-18Jun-18 Aug-18Oct-18Dec-18 Feb-19Apr-19Equities Building Materials and Construction10 July 2019Exhibit 4: HSBC Global Construction Lead Indicator (green indicates positive, red negative and grey neutral)Mar-18Apr-18May-18Jun-18Jul-18Aug-18Sep-18Oct-18Nov-18

40、Dec-18Jan-19Feb-19Mar-19Apr-19USCanada1.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.00.00.00.00.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.0North America1.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.00.11.01.0France Germany Italy Spain UKSw edenNetherlands1.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01

41、.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.0-1.0-1.00.00.0-1.0-1.0-1.0-1.0-1.0-1.0-1.00.00.00.01.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.0West Europe0.80.8PolandRussia1.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.

42、01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0East Europe1.01.01.00.20.2China India Indonesia Thailand Malay sia PhilippinesAustralia1.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.00.00.00.00.0-1.0-1.0-1.01.01.01.01.01.01.

43、00.01.00.01.00.01.00.01.00.01.00.00.00.00.01.01.01.01.01.01.00.00.00.00.00.0-1.0-1.0-1.00.01.01.01.01.00.01.00.01.00.01.00.01.00.01.00.00.00.01.01.00.01.01.01.01.0Asia1.01.01.01.01.01.01.00.7Brazil Mex icoColombia0.00.00.00.01.00.00.01.01.01.01.01.00.00.01.01.00.00.01.00.01.01.01.0

44、1.01.01.00.0-1.0-1.0-1.0-1.0-1.01.01.01.01.01.01.00.00.00.00.0Latin America0.00.11.00.20.2Nigeria Algeria Morocco Egy pt South AfricaSaudi ArabiaTurkey1.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.00.00.00.0-1.0-1.0-1.0-1.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.00.00.01.01.01.01.0-1.0-1.0-1.0-1.0

45、-1.0-1.0-1.0-1.0-1.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.0-1.0-1.0-1.0-1.0-1.01.01.01.01.00.00.0-1.0-1.0-1.0-1.0-1.0-1.0-1.0-1.0-1.0-1.00.00.00.00.00.0-1.0-1.0-1.0-1.0-1.0-1.01.00.0-1.0-1.0-1.0-1.0-1.0-1.0-1.0-1.0-1.0-1.0-1.0-1.0-1.0Africa ME-0.20.00.00.00.0-0.2-0.5-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.6Asia ex-China0.91.01.01.01

46、.01.00.10.0-0.7-0.7-0.7Source: HSBC, Refinitiv Datastream, CEIC, Markit, National sourcesUsing our lead indicator to track Global Building Materials & Construction coverage We weight the Global Construction Lead Indicator scores by company geographic and end- market sales for our global

47、 building materials companies, contractors and construction-related capital goods companies. This allows us to produce lead indicator scores for each company, summarised in exhibit 5, supporting the 12 stock calls we highlight (see pages 12-16). Leadindicator scores in April 2019 were mostly positiv

48、e for developed market exposed companies.5Global ex-China0.10.0-0.3-0.2-0.2Global ex-China, India0.10.0-0.10.00.0DM0.90.9EM ex-China0.0-0.1-0.5-0.5-0.5-1.0-1.0-1.0-1.00.00.00.00.00.00

49、.0Equities Building Materials and Construction10 July 2019Exhibit 5: Highest lead indicator scores for contractors and capital goods sub-sectors1.00.20.0-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.8Europe heavysideEM cementEurope lightsideEurope contractorsConstruction CGEM contractorsSource: HSBC, Refinitiv Datastream

50、, CEIC, Markit, National sources, Company dataOur key Buy calls are skewed towards high exposure to the US and EuropeuThe Europe heavyside building materials companies (LafargeHolcim, HeidelbergCement, Buzzi, CRH, Titan and Vicat) sub-sector group lead indicator scores remain positive on strength in

51、 the US, and general positive Europe indicators, offset by broadening EM weakness. This is reflected in relatively stable scores of 0.5 in April 2019 compared to 0.6 in March 2018, albeit it includes some slippage in H2 2018 due to weak US residential and infrastructure indicators. The pick-up in th

52、e 2019 US infrastructure leadindicators can be played through CRH (43% sales) and Buzzi (40% sales).uThe European lightside companies (Saint Gobain, Rockwool, Sika and Kingspan) are mostly exposed to the US and Europe, where the lead indicator scores are all positive except for Sweden. However, the

53、average score of these four companies has slipped to 0.5in April 2019, compared to 0.8 in March 2018, due to the broadening of Europe residentialweakness. Teral strength in Europe, US and better performing Europe renovationcan be played through Saint Gobain (80% sales in US and Europe) and Rockwool (60% sales in US and Europe).The construction related capital goods companies (Kone, Schindler, Legrand, AssaAbloy and Schneider Electric) average score remains positive, although it slipped to 0.6 in April 2019 from 0.9 in March 2018 due to a slowdown in residential and