尾矿综合利用技术产业化项目风险治理研究

1、尾矿综合利用技术产业化项目风险治理研究【中文摘要】本文对尾矿综合利用技术产业化项目进行了风险治理研究,其目的主要有两点:为项目的决策提供科学依据,保证项目的顺利实施;对项目进行全面的风险治理研究,以探求风险治理在实际项目的中的应用价值。本文风险治理研究的思路是:风险识别及评估、风险分析、风险控制、风险监视。首先,本文通过一系列的财务测算及敏感性分析初步得出该项目具有一定风险抵御能力的结论;进而构建了该项目的风险识别及评估模型,主要应用了德尔菲法及层次分析法进行定性定量分析,得出各个子风险的排序结果,对严重风险进行风险分析,并提出控制措施。从目前项目的进展情况来看,该模型的建立是有效的、适用的、

2、可行的。);【Abstract】 In recent years, risk management playing an increasingly important role in project management, especially for large-scale projects. There are more types of risk in large-scale project and risks can be found everywhere. Once happened, the consequences will be incalculable.The target

3、of this * is the project about technology industrialization of large-scale gangue synthetical utilizing .In this *, I conducted a risk management study of it. The purpose of the study is to provide a scientific basis for decision-*, so as to ensure the smooth implementation of project. At the same t

4、ime, through this risk management research, we also stress the importance of risk management in the project management.The problem of comprehensive utilization of large-scale tailings is a global phenomenon. According to incomplete statistics, there are more than 10 billion tons of tailings and wast

5、e rocks per year around the world. For our country, we have more than 2,000, tailings with the total of 5 billion tons now which covers more than 50,000 hectares. There are 2.6 billion tons of iron tailings, 23.1 billion tons of color metal tailings, 270 million tons of gold tailings, and 0.30 milli

6、on tons of chemical tailings. Also, it will increase by 500 million tons each year. According to recent study of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, there are about 300 million tons of tailings produced by 12 major minerals. At present, the rate of comprehensive utilization of tailings is only about

7、 8.2% in China. A large number of tailings are kept in the tailings dumps for long time, and in some remote areas they are even directly discharged to the natural venues. Whatever, the surrounding environment of the mining area has seriously been affected.Tailings will play important role in the 21s

8、t century and it will be the most potential area. Comprehensive utilization of tailings will be the solid material foundation of shaking off the dilemma and restructuring industry direction for many enterprises. Carrying out comprehensive utilization of tailings is a major technical and economic pol

9、icy in China, and it is the fundamental measure to achieve virtuous circle of material. It is of great significance in the aspects of conserving resources, improving the environment, improving the economic benefit of mine and achieving optimal allocation of resources.The project is based on the stat

10、us quo of Chinas iron ore resources, the domestic and foreign market conditions and business needs. It belongs to independent research. Putting cutter suction technology and the corresponding vector technology into the mining of iron ore tailings is the first attempt at home and abroad. At the same

11、time, it is a major breakthrough to alleviate the shortage of resources and protect the ecological environment.The project has the characteristics that the production process is *, the technology is advanced, the production scale is large, the cost is low, the economic effect is significant and it l

12、eads to no environmental contamination. It will be a fundamental resolution of the recovery process in the mining tailings and the equipment for the election problems. It fills the gap in the field of this technology both at home and abroad.The total investment of this project is 42 million yuan, 34

13、 million yuan of which is self-support fund (including experimental study costs, and ancillary equipment for the development, the industrialization of technological achievements application, etc.), 8 million yuan of which is the fund of the states industrial technology research and development. Acco

14、rding to the share of the target market and related information, we expect that we will produce 240,000 tons of iron per year (design capacity years). The price is 220 yuan / ton and the sale income is 52.8 million yuan every year.In this *, qualitative and quantitative research methods are both use

15、d to complete risk management research comprehensively.Firstly, through the forecast of financial statements and the analysis, we calculate the basic economic indicators, from which we reached the conclusion that the project has certain profitability and ability to withstand risks. In order to ensur

16、e the smooth implementation of the project, risk management study is conducted then. This * divides the risk management into four steps: risk identification and assessment, risk analysis, risk control, risk monitoring. Delphi method and AHP are used in the process of risk identification and assessme

17、nt to construct model of risk identification and assessment. We exclude the risks which are not important by adopting Delphi method, and conduct rough sort and fine sort through the AHP. After calculation we know that the possibility of appearing high risk is 0.1263, the possibility of appearing med

18、ia risk is 0.3507, the possibility of appearing low risk is 0.5233. Overall, it is a low-risk project. The result of Rough sort is: The economic risk (weight 0.4408) is the biggest risk, completion risk (weight .2398) followed, to be followed by management risk (weight 0.1748), technology risk (weight 0.0898), political risk (weight 0.0550). the result of fine sort is: serious risk contains market ri