美国赤字问题研究

1、Is the U.S. current account deficit sustainable? Will it be sustained?Zhou YueGuo KunThe size and significance of the current account deficit It is estimated that in 2001 the US current account deficit will reach 4.4% of GDP, up from 3.6% in1999. Current account balance was last achieved in 1991. Yo

2、u have to go back to 1884 to find such a large deficit rate.Net exports of U.S.-10-505101520198019821984198619881990199219941996199820002002200420062008201020122014net exportsexports of G&S (% of GDP)imports of G&S (% of GOD)Current account balance/GDP-10-50510152025198019821984198619881990199219941

3、996199820002002200420062008201020122014gross natianal saving ratecarrent account balance/GDP-900-800-700-600-500-400-300-200-1000198019821984198619881990199219941996199820002002200420062008201020122014trade balance (bil USD)trade balance (bil USD) Why is U.S. importing more capital than ever before?

4、 Are deficits on this scale sustainable? Are they likely to be sustained?Some questionsThe size and significance of the current account deficit Global context in 1999country$ billion% of GDPcountry% of GDPUS-331-3.6%Singapore25%Brazil-25-4.7%Kuwait17%Poland-12-8.0%Norway-4%Argentina-12-4.3%Cote dIvo

5、ire-3%Japan1072.5%Israel-2%Russia2513.6%Republic of Korea256.0%China161.6%Global context (1999)-3.5-4.31.9-1-16.65.6-6.912.616.8-3.1-10-505101520ArgentinaBrazilChinaCote DivoireIsrealJapanKoreaKuwaitNorwayPolandRussiaSingaporeUScarrent account balance/GDPGlobal context (2004)1.61.6

6、12.7-5.210.118-5.2-10-5051015202530ArgentinaBrazilChinaCote DivoireIsrealJapanKoreaKuwaitNorwayPolandRussiaSingaporeUScarrent account balance/GDPGlobal context (2009)2.2-2.93.726.711.9-44.116.8-2.6-10-5051015202530ArgentinaBrazilChinaCote DivoireIsrealJapanKoreaKuwaitNorwayPoland

7、RussiaSingaporeUScarrent account balance/GDPGlobal context (2014)-0.9-3.62-1.6225.337.511.1-1.23.320.2-2.2-10-50510152025303540ArgentinaBrazilChinaCote DivoireIsrealJapanKoreaKuwaitNorwayPolandRussiaSingaporeUScarrent account balance/GDPUnderrecording of receipts In principle, the world should be in

8、 current account balance every period. In fact, there was a deficit of $130 billion in 1990. The recorded deficit is exaggerated. But even this correction would still leave US a rather large deficitNet capital inflows Net capital inflows cause the current account deficit.Capital inflowExchange rate0

9、E*E*Net capital inflows The U.S. has no controls of any consequence on the inflow or outflow of capitals. The basic story of the past two decades is that, on balance, foreigners have wanted to buy more American assets than Americans have wanted to invest abroad.Net capital inflows The US has demonst

10、rated strong comparative advantage in exporting stocks, bonds, bank deposits, and other claims on US assets.Why so large? Why do foreigners invest so much in the United States? The US economy alone accounts for more than a quarter of the world economy, its fundamentals are strong, and it performs we

11、ll.Why so large Higher interest rete Higher returns on equity capitals Liquidity Better protection for creditors and minority shareholdersInterest rate024681012141619801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006200820102012Euro AeraJapanUSWhy so large In short, investments in American are v

12、iewed favorably around the world: The US economy is a good, steady performer, less sluggish than Europe and Japan, less volatile than emerging markets.-9E+11-8E+11-7E+11-6E+11-5E+11-4E+11-3E+11-2E+11-1E+110200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012current account deficitcurrent account deficitSituation in the new century Reasons for the trend Big budget deficits anti-terrorism/wars/The reform of social security-50005002000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008budget deficit(billon dollars)budge