跨国公司财务管理通用通用课件

1、Multinational Financial Management Alan Shapiro 7th EditionJ.Wiley & SonsPower Points byJoseph F. Greco, Ph.D.California State University, Fullerton1CHAPTER 3THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEM2CHAPTER OVERVIEWI.ALTERNATIVE EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEMSII.A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYTEMIII

2、.THE EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEM AND MONETARY UNIONIV.EMERGING MARKET CURRENCY CRISES3PART I. ALTERNATIVE EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEMSI.FIVE MARKET MECHANISMSA.Freely Floating (“Clean Float”)1.Market forces of supply and demand determine rates.4ALTERNATIVE EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEMS2.Forces influenced bya. price l

3、erest ratesc.economic growth3.Rates fluctuate randomly over time.5ALTERNATIVE EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEMSB.Managed Float (“Dirty Float”)1.Market forces set rates unless excess volatility occurs.2.Then, central bank determines rate. 6ALTERNATIVE EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEMSC.Target-Zone Arrangement1.Rat

4、e Determinationa.Market forces constrainedto upper and lower range of rates.b.Members to the arrangementadjust their national economic policies to maintain target.7ALTERNATIVE EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEMSD.Fixed Rate System1.Rate determinationa.Government maintains target rates. b.If rates threatened, cent

5、ral banks buy/sell currency.c.Monetary policies coordinated.8ALTERNATIVE EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEMSE.Current System1.A hybrid systema.Major currencies:use freely-floating methodb.Other currencies move in and out of various fixed-rate systems.9PART II. A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEMI

6、.THE USE OF GOLDA.Desirable propertiesB.In short run: High production costs limit changes.C.In long run: Commodity money insures stability.10A BRIEF HISTORYII.The Classical Gold Standard (1821-1914)A.Major global currencies on gold standard. 1.Nations fix the exchange rate in terms of a specific amo

7、unt of gold. 11A BRIEF HISTORY2.Maintenance involved the buying and selling of gold at that price.3.Disturbances in Price Levels:Would be offset by the price-specie*-flow mechanism.* specie = gold coins12A BRIEF HISTORYa.Price-specie-flow mechanismadjustments were automatic:1.)When a balance of paym

8、ents surplus led to a gold inflow;2.)Gold inflow led to higher prices which reduced surplus;3.)Gold outflow led to lower prices and increased surplus.13A BRIEF HISTORYIII.The Gold Exchange Standard (1925-1931)A.Only U.S. and Britain allowedto hold gold reserves.B.Others could hold both gold, dollars

9、 or pound reserves.14A BRIEF HISTORYC.Currencies devalued in 1931- led to trade wars.D.Bretton Woods Conference- called in order to avoid future protectionist and destructive economic policies15A BRIEF HISTORYV.The Bretton Woods System (1946-1971)1.U.S.$ was key currency;valued at $1 - 1/35 oz. of g

10、old.2.All currencies linked to that price in a fixed rate system.16A BRIEF HISTORY3.Exchange rates allowed to fluctuate by 1% above or below initially set rates.B.Collapse, 19711.Causes:a.U.S. high inflation rate b.U.S.$ depreciated sharply.17A BRIEF HISTORYV.Post-Bretton Woods System (1971-Present)

11、A.Smithsonian Agreement, 1971:US$ devalued to 1/38 oz. of gold.By 1973: World on a freely floating exchange rate system.18A BRIEF HISTORYB.OPEC and the Oil Crisis (1973-774)1. OPEC raised oil prices four fold;2. Exchange rate turmoil resulted;3. Caused OPEC nations to earn large surplus B-O-P.19A BR

12、IEF HISTORY4. Surpluses recycled to debtor nations which set up debt crisis of 1980s.C.Dollar Crisis (1977-78)1.U.S. B-O-P difficulties2.Result of inconsistent monetary policy in U.S.20A BRIEF HISTORY3.Dollar value falls as confidence shrinks.D.The Rising Dollar (1980-85)1.U.S. inflation subsides as

13、 theFed raises interest rates2.Rising rates attracts global capital to U.S.21A BRIEF HISTORY3.Result: Dollar value rises.E.The Sinking Dollar:(1985-87)1.Dollar revaluated slowly downward;2.Plaza Agreement (1985)G-5 agree to depress US$further.22A BRIEF HISTORY3.Louvre Agreement (1987)G-7 agree to su

14、pport the falling US$.F.Recent History (1988-Present)1.1988 US$ stabilized2.Post-1991 Confidence resulted in stronger dollar3.1993-1995 Dollar value falls23PART III.THE EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEMI.INTRODUCTIONA.The European Monetary System (EMS)1.A target-zone method (1979)2.Close macroeconomic policy

15、 coordination required. 24THE EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEMB.EMS Objective:to provide exchange rate stability to all members by holding exchange rates within specified limits.25THE EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEMC.European Currency Unit (ECU)a “cocktail” of European currencies with specified weights as the unit

16、 of account.26THE EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEM1. Exchange rate mechanism (ERM) - each member determines mutually agreed upon central cross rate for its currency.27THE EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEM2.Member Pledge:to keep within 15% margin above or below the central rate.28THE EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEMD.EMS ups

17、 and downs1. Foreign exchange interventions: failed due to lack of support by coordinated monetary policies.29THE EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEM2.Currency Crisis of Sept. 1992a. System broke downb.Britain and Italy forced towithdraw from EMS.30THE EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEMG.Failure of the EMS:members allow

18、ed political priorities to dominate exchange rate policies.31THE EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEMH.Maastricht Treaty1.Called for Monetary Union by 1999 (moved to 2002)2.Established a single currency:the euro32THE EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEM3.Calls for creation of a singlecentral EU bank4.Adopts tough fiscal standards33THE EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEMI.Costs / Benefits of A Single CurrencyA. Benefits1.Reduces co