畜禽成活率的准确计算

1、畜禽成活率的准确计算本文作者及算法提出：北京博亚苑科技开发有限责任公司王希斌笔者通过实例比较提出使用累计加权平均法计算相对准确的成活率、死亡率的算法公式, 及在软件设计中实现的算法。一、几种成活率计算公式死亡数H成活率二1 -日初存栏+转入和购入数成活率1（期初转入法）二1-.成活率2（常规法1）二*栏期注：仅适用于：期末存栏-期初存栏+转出上市0时。成活率3 （常规法2） = .普转出上市+死亡注：用于成活率2 （常规法1）中，期末存栏-期初存栏+转出上市SO时。成活率4（累积日成活率法）=n?=i勤注：xi为第i夭的日成活率 成活率5 （平均日成活率法）=/注：X为平均Fi成活率（算末平均

2、法），n为统计期间天数。 成活率6 （加权平均法）注：x为平均Fi成活率（加权平均法），n为统计期间天数。平均日成活率（加权平均法）二尊竺舟琨：1（屯+由）注：格为第，天的日成活率，为第，天的日初存栏, bj为第1天的转入和购入数。这里“日成活率”公式是无争议的公式；平均日成活率的计算仅仅是为计算期间成活率用的中间结果；成活率1-3为各公司常用计算成活率的公式，但均有一定的缺陷；成活率4为企业认为可以用日成活率积乘代表准确期间成活率；成活率5为企业认为可以用平均日成活率的积乘代表准确期间成活率;成活率6为本文作者提供的准确期间成活率计算公式。二、几种饲养数据的比较1、正常生产的标准全进全出饲养

3、样例正常生产时的“全进全出”畜禽群体，仅有建群转入、末口销传和死亡数据，样例如下:期初存栏转入/购入销侈/淘汰/转出死亡期末存栏日成活率12000119990. 99950000021999219970.9989995003199719971.0000000004199719971.00000000051997219950.9989984986199519951.000000000199519951.0000000008199519951.00000000091995619890.99699248110198919891.00000000011198919891.000000000121989

4、19891.00000000013198919891.000000000141989219870.99899147015198719871.00000000016198719871.00000000017198719871.00000000018198719871.00000000019198719871.00000000020198719871.00000000021198719871.00000000022198719871.000000000231987219850.99899345724198519851.00000000025198519851.0000000002619851985

5、1.000000000271985219830.99899244328198319831.00000000029198319831.00000000030198319831.000000000311983219810.99899142732198119811.00000000033198119811.00000000034198119811.000000000期初存栏转入/购入销传/淘汰/转出死亡期末存栏口成活率35198119811. 00000000036198119811. 00000000037198119811. 000000000381981219790.9989904093919

6、7919791.000000000401979619730.99696816641197319731.000000000421973219710.99898631543197119711.000000000441971319680.998477930451968196801.000000000合计873512000196832873510.999641891本例当然是“成活率1”最为准确反映群体的成活率情况。各个期间成活率算法比较表被比较对象(a)比较的标准(b)差异 ab差异(%)(a-b) /b *100%名称值成活率1成活率2不适用0. 984000000不适用不适用成活率30.9840

7、000000.9840000000. 0000000000. 000000000成活率40.9840000000.9840000000.0000000000.000000000成活率50.9840114060.9840000000.0000114060.001159194成活率60. 9840101150. 9840000000. 0000101150. 001027955结论：这里可直接由“成活率1”简单、准确计算出期间成活率；“成活率3”、“成活率4”也可准确反映期间成活率；“成活率5”、“成活率6”也可较准确反映期间成活率，相对偏差在5%之内,“成活率6”相对更准确；成活率2不适用这种情

8、况。这是个发生疫情，存在大量死亡情况的“全进全出”畜禽群体，仅有建群转入、末口销 传和死亡数据，样例如下：日期初存栏转入/购入销售/淘汰/转出死亡期末存栏日成活率12000119990. 99950000021999219970.9989995003199719971. 0000000004199719971. 00000000051997219950. 9989984986199519951. 000000000r i199519951. 0000000008199519951. 00000000091995619890. 99699248110198919891. 000000000111

9、98919891. 00000000012198919891. 00000000013198919891. 0000000001419892019690. 9899446961519694019290.9796851191619299518340.95075168517183432015140.82551799318151413013840.9141347421913849012940.93497109820129412941. 0000000002112946012340. 95363214822123412341. 000000000231234212320. 99837925424123

10、212321. 00000000025123212321. 00000000026123212321. 0000000002712323012020. 97564935128120212021. 00000000029120212021. 00000000030120212021. 000000000311202212000. 99833610632120012001. 00000000033120012001. 00000000034120012001. 00000000035120012001. 000000000II期初存栏转入/购入销售/淘汰/转出死亡期末存栏日成活率361200120

11、01. 00000000037120012001. 000000000381200211980. 99833333339119811981. 000000000401198611920. 99499165341119211921. 000000000421192211900. 99832214843119011901. 000000000441190311870. 997478992451187118701. 000000000合计6808420001187813660840. 988991529本例当然是“成活率1”最为准确反映群体的成活率情况。各个期间成活率算法比较表二被比较对象(a)比较

12、的标准(b)差异ab差异的(ab) /b *100%名称值成活率1成活率2不适用0. 593500000不适用不适用成活率30.5935000000. 5935000000. 0000000000. 000000000成活率40.5935000000. 5935000000.0000000000.000000000成活率50.6076671030. 5935000000.0141671032. 387043508成活率60. 5824074560. 5935000000.0110925441. 869004869结论：这里可直接由“成活率1”简单、准确计算出期间成活率；“成活率3”、“成活率4

13、”也可准确反映期间成活率；“成活率5”、“成活率6”也可较准确反映期间成活率，相对偏差在5%之内,“成活率6”相对更准确；成活率2不适用这种情况。正常生产时的“全进全出”畜禽群体，仅有建群转入、期间有销售和死亡数据，样例如H期初存栏转入/购入销售/淘汰/转出死亡期末存栏日成活率102000119990. 99950000021999219970. 99899950031997019971. 0000000004199719971. 00000000051997219950. 9989984986199519951. 000000000*7 1199519951. 000000000819951

14、9951. 00000000091995619890. 99699248110198919891. 00000000011198919891. 00000000012198919891. 00000000013198919891. 000000000111989219870. 99899447015198719871. 00000000016198719871. 00000000017198719871. 00000000018198719871. 00000000019198719871. 00000000020198719871. 00000000021198719871. 0000000

15、0022198719871. 000000000231987219850. 99899345724198519851. 00000000025198519851. 00000000026198519851. 000000000271985400215830. 99899244328158315831. 00000000029158315831. 00000000030158315831. 000000000311583215810. 99873657632158115811. 00000000033158115811. 00000000031158115811. 000000000351581

16、15811. 000000000II期初存栏转入/购入销售/淘汰/转出死亡期末存栏日成活率36158115811. 00000000037158115811. 000000000381581215790. 99873497839157915791. 000000000401579615730. 99620012741157315731. 000000000421573215710. 998728544431571015711. 000000000441571315680. 9980903884515681568001. 000000000合计801512000196832801510. 999

17、599144本例也以“成活率1”为对比标准。各个期间成活率算法比较表三被比较对象(a)比较的标准(b)差异ab差异(%)(ab) /b *100%名称值成活率1成活率20.9259259260. 9840000000. 0580740745. 901836796成活率30.9840000000. 9840000000.0000000000. 000000000成活率40.9821048640. 9840000000.0018951360.192595103成活率50.9821196310. 9840000000.0018803690.191094409成活率60.9826206810. 984

18、0000000. 0013793190. 140174669结论：“成活率1”计算结果会偏高，原因是早期的售出会大大提高成活率“成活率2”、“成活率3”、“成活率4”、“成活率5”、“成活率6”也 可反映期间成活率。有疫情时的“全进全出”畜禽群体，仅有建群转入、期间有销传和死亡数据，样例如下:H期初存栏转入/购入销售/淘汰/转出死亡期末存栏日成活率102000119990. 99950000021999219970. 9989995003199719971. 0000000004199719971. 00000000051997219950. 9989984986199519951. 0000

19、00000r i199519951. 0000000008199519951. 00000000091995619890. 99699248110198919891. 00000000011198919891. 00000000012198919891. 00000000013198919891. 0000000001119892019690. 9899446961519694019290. 9796851191619299518340. 95075168517183432015140. 82551799318151413013840. 9141347421913849012940. 9349

20、7109820129412941. 0000000002112946012340. 95363214822123412341. 000000000231234212320. 99837925424123212321. 00000000025123212321. 00000000026123212321. 000000000271232400308020. 975649351288028021. 000000000298028021. 000000000308028021. 0000000003180228000. 997506234328008001. 000000000338008001.

21、000000000318008001. 000000000358008001. 000000000II期初存栏转入/购入销售/淘汰/转出死亡期末存栏日成活率368008001. 000000000378008001. 0000000003880027980. 99750000039798780181. 00000000040186120. 6666666674112121. 00000000042122100. 8333333334310101. 000000000441030. 700000000457701. 000000000合计542042000118813542040. 971381

22、396本例以“成活率1”为对比标准。各个期间成活率算法比较表三被比较对象(a)比较的标准(b)差异ab差异(%) (ab) /b *100%名称值成活率1成活率20. 5920722530. 5935000000. 0014277470. 240563962成活率30.5935000000. 5935000000.0000000000. 000000000成活率40.2325565250. 5935000000. 36094347560. 816086714成活率50.2707323550. 5935000000. 32276764554.383764886成活率60. 5190857760.

23、 5935000000. 07441422412. 538201178结论：这里“成活率1”虽然作为比较的标准，但中途的销售使成活率被高估了；“成活率2”、“成活率3”与“成活率1”是一样的，同样可能高估成活率;“成活率4”、“成活率5”显然是不正确的，过低的估算了成活率；“成活率6”虽然较“成活率1”有较大差异，但恰好纠正了 “成活率1”高估 成活率的缺点，也纠正了“成活率4”、“成活率5”过低估计的错误，即，“成 活率6”更能反映此时的群体。5、混群饲养，期间有销售、转出、死亡、转入和购入这是个正常生产时的“混群饲养”畜禽群体，样例数据如下:H期初存栏转入/购入销售/淘汰/转出死亡期末存栏

24、日成活率12000119990. 99950000021999219970.9989995003199740015971. 0000000004159715971. 00000000051597215950. 9987476526159540019951. 0000000007199519951. 0000000008199519951. 00000000091995619890. 99699248110198919891. 00000000011198919891. 00000000012198919891. 00000000013198940015891. 0000000001115892

25、15870. 99874134715158715871. 00000000016158715871. 00000000017158740019871. 00000000018198719871. 00000000019198719871. 00000000020198719871. 00000000021198719871. 00000000022198719871. 000000000231987400215850. 99899345724158515851. 00000000025158515851. 00000000026158515851. 000000000271585215830.

26、 99873817028158340019831. 00000000029198319831. 00000000030198319831. 000000000311983219810. 99899142732198119811. 00000000033198140015811. 00000000031158115811. 00000000035158115811. 00000000036158115811. 000000000II期初存栏转入/购入销售/淘汰/转出死亡期末存栏日成活率37158140019811. 000000000381981219790. 99899040939197919791. 000000000401979619730. 99696816641197319731. 000000000421973219710. 99898631543197140015711. 000000000441571315680. 99809038845156815681. 000000000合计821511600200032817190. 999616429本例也以“成活率1 (期初转入法)”对比标准。各个期间成