财务报表盈利预测与估值表

1、,代码,公司名称,分析日期,600439.SH,瑞贝卡,2009-10-12,历史数据,明确预测期,长期预测期,1、经营活动假设,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009E,2010E,2011E,2012E,2013E,2014E,2015E,2016E,2017E,2018E,营业收入增长率（YOY),50.19%,8.12%,40.76%,15.00%,0.47%,17.48%,22.66%,15.09%,8.52%,10.40%,10.16%,5.95%,11.41%,6.11%,7.72%,营业成本 /营业收入,80.15%,78.22%,79.83%,73.78%

2、,70.64%,73.28%,68.67%,66.86%,64.90%,63.33%,62.21%,61.21%,60.54%,59.33%,58.67%,营业税率,0.01%,0.39%,0.41%,0.61%,0.42%,0.40%,0.40%,0.40%,0.40%,0.40%,0.40%,0.40%,0.40%,0.40%,0.40%,销售费用 /营业收入,2.36%,2.50%,1.09%,1.39%,3.02%,3.50%,3.50%,3.40%,3.40%,3.40%,3.40%,3.40%,3.40%,3.40%,3.40%,管理费用 /营业收入,2.39%,3.60%,3.4

3、2%,2.93%,3.84%,5.00%,4.60%,4.40%,4.30%,4.20%,4.20%,4.20%,4.20%,4.20%,4.20%,实际税率,29.34%,29.86%,30.32%,27.39%,10.86%,20.00%,20.00%,20.00%,25.00%,25.00%,25.00%,25.00%,25.00%,25.00%,25.00%,少数股东损益/税前利润,0.03%,0.00%,0.02%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,股利分配比例,55.11%

4、,59.13%,49.02%,26.12%,17.57%,30.00%,35.00%,40.00%,42.00%,44.00%,46.00%,48.00%,50.00%,52.00%,54.00%,2、营运资金假设,2004,2005,2006,2007E,2008,2009E,2010E,2011E,2012E,2013E,2014E,2015E,2016E,2017E,2018E,货币资金 /营业收入,15.50%,42.85%,33.89%,27.50%,30.00%,30.00%,30.00%,30.00%,30.00%,30.00%,30.00%,30.00%,30.00%,30.0

5、0%,应收帐款周转天数(相对于营业收入),50.92,42.56,46.56,24.75,30.00,30.00,30.00,30.00,30.00,30.00,30.00,30.00,30.00,30.00,其他应收款/营业收入,0.89%,0.74%,0.75%,1.27%,1.10%,1.10%,1.10%,1.10%,1.10%,1.10%,1.10%,1.10%,1.10%,1.10%,应收票据周转天数(相对于营业收入),0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,存货周转天数(相对于营业

6、成本),256.29,134.69,176.74,360.75,300.00,300.00,300.00,300.00,300.00,300.00,300.00,300.00,300.00,300.00,应付票据周转天数(相对于营业成本),0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,应付帐款周转天数(相对于营业成本),43.15,8.82,18.45,27.30,22.00,22.00,22.00,22.00,22.00,22.00,22.00,22.00,22.00,22.00,预付帐款增加 /营

7、业成本,1.38%,2.46%,5.18%,-4.59%,-0.50%,3.00%,3.00%,3.00%,3.00%,3.00%,3.00%,3.00%,3.00%,3.00%,预收帐款(负债)增加 /营业收入,0.10%,0.26%,-0.13%,0.51%,0.50%,0.50%,0.50%,0.50%,0.50%,0.50%,0.50%,0.50%,0.50%,0.50%,预提费用增加 /营业收入,-0.01%,-0.05%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,其他流动资产增加

8、/营业收入增加,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,其他流动负债增加 /营业收入增加,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,其他长期资产增加 /营业收入增加,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,其他长期负债

9、增加 /营业收入增加,0.00%,3.53%,0.46%,11.83%,5.00%,5.00%,5.00%,5.00%,5.00%,5.00%,5.00%,5.00%,5.00%,5.00%,坏帐准备 /应收帐款,短期投资跌价准备,存货跌价准备(含工程亏损准备),长期投资减值准备,固定资产减值准备,在建工程减值准备,3、投资活动假设,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009E,2010E,2011E,2012E,2013E,2014E,2015E,2016E,2017E,2018E,I,资本开支,期末固定资产原值,22226.71 ,27363.13 ,31112.03 ,3

10、3986.48 ,35923.70 ,37892.32 ,39876.62 ,41868.77 ,43864.85 ,45862.89 ,47361.91 ,48611.42 ,期末累计折旧,3948.94 ,5134.80 ,7092.73 ,9223.13 ,11469.76 ,13834.51 ,16318.32 ,18921.66 ,21644.76 ,24487.74 ,27420.67 ,30428.56 ,期末固定资产减值准备,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,1.00 ,固定资产投

11、资,3102.1 ,-678.7 ,619.90 ,6813.68 ,4000.00 ,2000.00 ,1000.00 ,2000.00 ,2000.00 ,2000.00 ,2000.00 ,2000.00 ,1000.00 ,1000.00 ,无形资产投资,1000.00 ,1000.00 ,1000.00 ,0.00 ,1000.00 ,1000.00 ,0.00 ,1000.00 ,0.00 ,1000.00 ,长期待摊费用增加,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,固定资产的折旧年限平均为

12、,15,年,残值率为,5.00%,年折旧率=,6.33%,新增固定资产折旧率,6.00%,现有无形资产摊销年限为,15 ,年,新增无形资产摊销年限为,15 ,年,现有长期待摊费用摊销年限为,10 ,年,新增长期待摊费用摊销年限为,10 ,年,II,金融投资及股权投资,交易性金融资产投资,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,可供出售金融资产投资,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,持有至到期投资,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,长期股权投资,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,投资性房地产,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,4、融资活动假设,2004

13、,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009E,2010E,2011E,2012E,2013E,2014E,2015E,2016E,2017E,2018E,贷款,银行长期贷款增加额,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,债券或短融,期初余额,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,债券发行数量,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,债

14、券偿还,0.00 ,0.00 ,可转债,期初余额,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,可转换债当期发行/(赎回）,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,可转债当期转股,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,转股价格,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.

15、00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,转股股数,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,股票融资,发行股数,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,发行价格,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,发行费用所占比例,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,利率假设,a、最低货币资金为营业收入的,15.00%,b、银行长期贷款利率为,5.94%,c、短期贷款利率为,5.30%,d、现金存款利率为,0.98%,f、债券利率,e、可转债利率,5、估值参数相关假设