国际贸易第四章

1、Chapter 4Factor Endowment Factor Availability and Factor Proportions Are KeyChapter Structure1. Heckscher-Ohlin model2. Three Implications of the H-O Theory3. Empirical Evidence on H-O Theory 1 要素禀赋理论 Heckscher-Ohlin model Used to solve problems left behind by Ricardo: Reasons for comparative cost d

2、ifference. Put forward by Swedish Economists Heckscher and Ohiler, so it is also call the Heckscher-Ohlin model, or H-O model, also known as factor endowment theory. It offers good explaining to international trade, so still works as main stream theory in international trade.伊菲赫克歇尔（ Eli F Heckscher,

3、1879-1959） 赫克歇尔生于瑞典斯德哥尔摩的一个犹太人家庭。1897 年起，在乌普萨拉大学(Uppsala University)跟耶尔纳（Hjarne）学习历史，跟戴维森（Davidson）学习经济，并于1907 年获得博士学位。毕业后，他曾任斯德哥尔摩大学商学院的临时讲师；1909 年1929 年任经济学和统计学教授。此后，因他在科研方面的过人天赋，学校任命他为新成立的经济史研究所所长。对经济学的主要贡献：经济理论的创新和在经济史研究引入定量研究方法。他成功地使经济史成为瑞典各大学的一门研究生课程。 在经济理论方法最主要的贡献可以概括为他最著名的两篇文章。 1919 年发表的外贸对收

4、入分配的影响是现代赫克歇尔俄林要素禀赋国际贸易理论的起源。他集中探讨了各国资源要素禀赋构成与商品贸易模式之间的关系，并且，一开始就运用了一般均衡的分析方法。他认为，要素绝对价格的平均化是国际贸易的必然结果。他的论文具有开拓性的意义，其后，这个理论由他的学生俄林进一步加以发展。 间歇性免费商品（1924）一文提出的不完全竞争理论，比琼罗宾逊和爱德华张伯仑的早了9 年。文章中还探讨了不由市场决定价格的集体财富（即所谓的公共财物）的问题。 在经济史方面，赫克歇尔更享有盛名。主要著作有：大陆系统：一个经济学的解释、重商主义、古斯塔夫王朝以来的瑞典经济史、历史的唯物主义解释及其它解释、经济史研究等。赫克

5、歇尔通过对史料提出更广泛的问题或假定，进行深入的批判性研究，从而在经济史和经济理论两个方面架起了桥梁，并把两者有机地结合起来。他是瑞典学派的主要人物之一。贝蒂俄林 Bertil Ohlin(Sweden) Stockholm School of EconomicsStockholm, Sweden1899 - 1979 俄林（Bertil Gotthard Ohlin,1899-1979） 1899 年4 月俄林生于瑞典南方的一个小村子。他早年就读于隆德大学和斯德哥尔摩大学（University ofStockholm)，后来又赴英国剑桥大学和美国哈佛大学留学。1924 年任丹麦哥本哈根大学经

6、济学教授，5 年后回瑞典任斯德哥尔摩大学商学院教授，曾在美国佛吉尼亚和加利福尼亚大学任客座教授。凭着对国际贸易理论的现代化处理获得1977 年诺贝尔经济学奖。1979 年8 月于书桌前逝世。 俄林不仅是一位经济学家，还是瑞典著名的政治活动家。他一直雄心勃勃，希望有朝一日能爬上首相的宝座。他刚任斯德哥尔摩经济学院经济学教授不久，就当上自由青年协会的主席，一举成为政坛上引人注目的活跃人物。1938年，俄林当选议会议员。1944年，他出任瑞典主要反对党自由党的主席。同年，在联合政府中任贸易部部长。他连任自由党主席达23年之久。但是，使他失望的是，他想当首相的宿愿一直没有实现。 驰骋政坛并未使俄林中断

7、对经济学的研究。他不负盛名，探索不止。自进入政界之后，他不仅扩大了研究范围，写出了大量论著，而且多次出国讲学。 他的研究成果主要表现在国际贸易理论方面。 1924年出版国际贸易理论，1933 年出版其名著，即美国哈佛大学出版的区间贸易和国际贸易论，1936年出版国际经济的复兴（International EconomicReconstruction)，1941 年出版资本市场和利率政策等。俄林的理论受他的老师赫克歇尔关于生产要素比例的国际贸易理论的影响，并在美国哈佛大学教授威廉（T.H.Williams）的指导下，结合瓦尔拉斯和卡塞尔的一般均衡理论进行分析论证，在区间贸易和国际贸易论中最终形成

8、。因此，俄林的国际贸易理论又被称为赫克歇尔俄林理论。Assumptions1. Two nations, two products, two factors ( L and K ), 2 22 model. 2. Fixed Endowment, free mobility of factor domestically, non-mobility internationally.3.Same technical level between two nations ( Same production function, same endowment for same products in tw

9、o nations)Two Notions:Factor intensityFactor abundance 要素丰裕度（对国家而言） Factor Abundance：一国的资源拥有状况，即一国的要素禀赋状况。 如果一个国家的劳动力相对于其它要素的比例比其它国家更高，我们称其为劳动力丰裕型的国家。要素密集度（对产品而言） Factor Intensity：是指单位产品生产中某种要素投入比例的大小。如果某种要素投入比例大，称为该要素密集程度高。这是个相对概念而非绝对概念，是衡量生产中要素之间的比例，不是要素与产出的比例。 两个国家都生产X和Y商品，都使用两种生产要素K和L。如果生产Y时的KL（

10、要素配合比例）大于生产X的KL，就称Y是资本密集型商品，X为劳动密集型商品。 即 则y是资本密集型产品，x 是劳动密集型产品（L-intensive）Heckscher-Ohlin TheoremEach country exports the good intensive in the countrys abundant factor, and imports the good intensive in the countrys scarce factor.两国要素禀赋不同，导致两国要素价格不同要素价格差异导致生产成本差异生产成本差异导致同种产品在两国的价格差异同种产品在不同国家价格的差异导

11、致国际贸易发生两国要素密集度和要素丰裕度的差异形成了不同产品的比较优势 一国的要素丰裕度要素的价格 商品的价格 贸易流向 商品的要素密集度 举例分析： 国 名要 素 价 格商 品商品的要素密集度总成本劳动土地劳动土地日本1日元4日元小 麦1521日元纺织品10114日元澳大利亚2澳元 1澳元小 麦157澳元纺织品10121澳元Heckscher-Ohlin Theorem:Based by H-O theory, the differences are resulted from (1) differences across countries in the availability of f

12、actor resources; (2) differences across products in the use of these factors in producing the products. A country will export the product which uses its abundant factor intensively and import the product which uses its scarce factor intensively. Three Implications of the H-O Theory1. Winner vs. Loos

13、er Under Free TradeIn the Short Run, gains and losses divide by output sector: all groups tied to rising sectors gain, and all groups tie to declining sectors lose. 在短期内，受益者与受损者以产出品所处于的产业而划分：所有与上升产业相联系的集团都将有所受益，而所有与下降产业相联系的集团都将有所损失。1. Winner vs. Looser Under Free TradeIn the long run, factors can mo

14、ve between sectors in response to differences in returns. 从长期来看，各种要素会对各个产业收益之差作出反应，其方式就是在各个产业之间进行流动 1. Winner vs. Looser Under Free Trade1. Winner vs. Looser Under Free Trade1. Winner vs. Looser Under Free Trade Trade makes some people absolutely better off and others absolutely worse off in each of

15、 the trading countries. The gainers and the losers in the short run are somewhat different from those in the long run, because more adjustment (factor movement and price adjustment) can occur in the long run.2. Three Implications of the H-O Theory2.1 The Stolper-Samuelson Theorem 2.2 The Specialized

16、-Factor Pattern 2.3 The Factor-Price Equalization Theorem Expansion of H-O modelInternational trade affects price production and consumption, but will it also affect the factor payoff and price? Basing on H-O model, we solve problems of trade to income distribution. Stolper-Samuelson TheoremFactor P

17、ayoff= Price（P）Marginal products of factors（MP）Value of marginal products （VMP）W = PMPLR = PMPK2.1 The Stolper-Samuelson Theorem 赫克歇尔俄林模型的拓展国际贸易会影响商品的价格、生产和消费，对要素报酬和价格是否会有影响？以H-O模型为基础，解决国际贸易对收入分配的影响问题。斯托尔珀萨缪尔森定理要素报酬的决定：生产要素报酬 = 产品价格（P）生产要素的边际产品（MP）边际产品价值（VMP）W = PMPLR = PMPKShort term: Factor non-mo

18、bilityBecause of non-mobility, trade will only affect price出口产品（X）价格上涨W = PXMPLW increasesR = PXMPKRincreasesAll export producers payoffs increase进口产品（Y）价格下跌W = PYMPLW DecreasesR = PYMPKRDecreasesAll import producers payoffs decreaseLong term: Because factors are mobile, trade not only affects price

19、, but also the marginal products.劳动密集型的出口行业报酬提高资本密集型的进口竞争行业的要素向出口行业流动进口竞争行业流出的资本比劳动多出口行业需要的劳动比资本多资本相对过剩，价格降低劳动相对稀缺，价格提高各行业投入更多资本，资本/劳动比率提高劳动生产率提高，资本生产率下降劳动的边际产品增加，资本的边际产品减少出口行业W = PXMPLPX上涨，MPL增加W提高R = PXMPKPX上涨，MPK减少R？进口竞争行业W = PYMPLPY下跌，MPL增加W？R = PYMPKPY下跌，MPK减少R下降Payoff of the factor intensively

20、 used by exporters will increasePayoff of the factor intensively used by importers will decreaseLabor market is in equilibrium before tradeWX = WY，RX = RYFactor market will also form equilibrium after tradeWX increases，WY also increases；RX decreases，RY also decreasesIn long term, after trade, Payoff

21、 of the factor intensively used by exporters will increase, and Payoff of the factor intensively used by importers will decrease, this is try in any industry. 贸易前国内均衡状态下，劳动市场是均衡的WX = WY，RX = RY贸易后要素市场也将形成均衡WX上涨，WY也会上涨；RX下降，RY也会下降长期来看，开展国际贸易后，出口产品生产中密集使用的生产要素的报酬会提高；进口产品生产中密集使用的生产要素报酬会减少。无论这些要素在哪个行业中使

22、用都是如此。斯托尔珀萨缪尔森定理 The Stolper-Samuelson Theorem Given certain conditions and assumptions, including full adjustment to a new long-run equilibrium, an event that changes product prices in a country unambiguously has two effects:it raises the real return to the factor used intensively in the rising-pri

23、ce industryit lowers the real return to the factor used intensively in the falling price industry. This result does not depend at all on how much of each product is consumed by the households of landowners and laborers.2.2 The Specialized-Factor PatternThe more a factor is specialized, or concentrat

24、ed, in the production of a product whose relative price is rising, the more this factor stands to gain from the change in the product price.The more a factor is concentrated into the production of a product whose relative price is falling, the more it stands to lose from the changes in product price

25、. 2.3 The Factor-Price Equalization Theorem Factor-price equalization theorem Given certain conditions and assumptions, free trade equalizes not only product prices but also the prices of individual factors between the two countries. Even if factors cannot migrate between countries directly, with fr

26、ee tradeLaborers (of the same skill level) earn the same wage rate in both countries and Units of land (of comparable quality) earn the same rental return in both countries.International Factor Price Equalization With the shift to free trade: For each factor, its rate of return becomes more similar

27、between countries. Under ideal conditions, its real rate of return is the same in different countries. Example: Labor. With no trade, the wage rate is high in the labor-scarce country. The wage rate is low in the labor-abundant country. With free trade, the import of labor-intensive products pushes

28、the wage-rate down in the labor-scarce country. The export of labor-intensive products pulls the wage rate up in the labor-abundant country. Explains the influence of trade among countries to the factor price in two countries. A国贸易前W低R高贸易后W提高R降低B国贸易前W高R低贸易后W降低R提高均等International Factor Price Equaliza

29、tion 3. Empirical Evidence on H-O Theory 3.1 Does Heckscher-Ohlin Explain Actual Trade Patterns? 3.2 Examination of Stolper-Samuelson Theorem 3.3 Do Factor Prices Equalize Internationally?Wassily LeontiefUSAHarvard UniversityCambridge, MA, USA1906 - 1999 3.1 Does Heckscher-Ohlin Explain Actual Trade

30、 Patterns? 3.1.1 The Leontief Paradox Wassily W Leontief（19061999）七岁上大学，读遍列宁格勒图书馆的经济学书，成为一名优秀的经济学家，1927离开苏朕，任哈佛大学经济学教授，由于在投入产出学方面的杰出贡献获诺贝尔经济学奖。 1953年，他用美国1947年的贸易和生产统计资料：美国每生 产100万美元的出口产品需投入225万的资本和180八年的劳动，平均每人年劳动配合14300资本；美国每生产100万的进口产品需投入309万资本和170人年劳动，人均配合劳动18200资本，由此可见，美国出口产品相对于进口产品是劳动密集型产品。3.1

31、.1 The Leontief ParadoxTarget: The Trade Pattern Conclusion according to H-O TheorySample: The U.S.A., 1947Assumption: The U.S. economy at that time was capital-abundant (and labor-scarce) relative to the rest of the world- only two kinds of factorsMethod: He computed the ratios of capital stocks to

32、 numbers of workers in the U.S. export and import competing industries in 1947.(Kx / Lx）/ (Km/Lm) should be above 1 3.1.1 The Leontief Paradox ExportImport SubstitutesCapital$2550,780$3091,339Labor (man year)182170Capital/Labor$14010$18,1801947, U.S.A.Result: In 1947, the United States was exporting

33、 labor-intensive goods to the rest of the world in exchange for relatively capital-intensive imports.（Kx /Lx）/ (Km/Lm) = 0.77 3.1.1 The Leontief Paradox Leontief的检验结果、HO理论、人们的常识相矛盾。这三者之中必然有一个是错误的。但人们既不愿意放弃自己的常识假定，也不愿意否定H-O理论，同时也无法驳倒Leontief的检验结果，由此产生Leontief Paradox。 由于有人指责1947年正值二战结束不久，贸易模式可能由于战争影响

34、未消除而遭到扭曲，于是1956年他再次用美国1951年的贸易和生产统计资料，具体数据不同，但结论相同。 Tests on U.S. DataLeontief found that U.S. exports were less capital-intensive than U.S. imports, even though the U.S. is the most capital-abundant country in the world.Tests on Global DataA study by Bowen, Leamer, and Sveikauskas tested the Hecksc

35、her-Ohlin model using data for a large number of countries.This study confirms the Leontief paradox on a broader level.Tests on North-South TradeNorth-South trade in manufactures seems to fit the Heckscher-Ohlin theory much better than the overall pattern of international trade.The Case of the Missi

36、ng TradeA study by Trefler in 1995 showed that technological differences across a sample of countries are very large.Implications of the TestsEmpirical evidence on the Heckscher-Ohlin model has led to the following conclusions:It has been less successful at explaining the actual pattern of internati

37、onal trade.It has been useful as a way to analyze the effects of trade on income distribution.列昂惕夫反论 （一）对美国对外贸易的分析 理论上：资本丰富，劳动力相对不足。应该出口资本密集型产品，进口劳动密集型产品。 实际上：出口劳动密集型产品，进口资本密集型产品。 （二）对其他国家外贸的分析 （三）列昂惕夫的理论贡献 将经济理论、数学方法和经验统计相结合，运用定量分析工具的做法。 Explanations: 1、列昂惕夫本人提出的“劳动力非同质论”。 2、要素密集度逆转 同一商品，在不同的国家具有不同

38、的要素密集度。 3、需求对贸易的影响 美国市场偏好资本密集型产品进口。 4、关税结构及对外贸易政策 鲍德温：美国的对外贸易政策倾向于保护劳动密集型产业的出口，限制其进口。 5、自然资源的稀缺 凡涅克：美国土地稀缺土地的开发需大量资本投入相关产业即属资本密集型。 3.1 Does Heckscher-Ohlin Explain Actual Trade Patterns? 3.1.2 Other Evidence Examining More than Two Types of Production FactorsComplete tests require information on: fa

39、ctor endowments international trade factor proportions 3.1 Does Heckscher-Ohlin Explain Actual Trade Patterns? 3.1.2 Other Evidence Examining More than Two Types of Production Factors International trade patterns broadly confirm the H-O prediction that nations tend to export the products using their

40、 abundant factors intensively. 3.2 What are the Export-Oriented and Import-Competing Factors? ( Examination of Stolper-Samuelson Theorem )The U.S. PatternThe Canadian PatternPatterns in Other Countries 3.3 Do Factor Prices Equalize Internationally?Proposition： Trade can equalize the price of each fa

41、ctor of production across countries.Edited Proposition: Does trade tend to make factor prices more similar across countries than they would be with not trade?Conclusion：Fuller Answers to the Four Trade Questions Why do countries Trade?David RicardoComparative Advantage TheoryHeckscher-Ohlincomparati

42、ve advantage in terms of underlying differences in factor endowmentsConclusion：Fuller Answers to the Four Trade Questions2. How does trade affect production and consumption in each country?Effects on Production: Within each country output expands for the product in which the country has a comparativ

43、e advantage.Effects on Consumption: Importable Productsincreasing Exportable Productsnot for sureConclusion：Fuller Answers to the Four Trade Questions3. Which country gains from trade? Both Countries gain. Each countrys net national gains are proportional to the change in its price from its no trade value, so the country whose prices are disrupted more by trade gains more.Conclusion：Fuller Answers to the Four Trade Questions4. Within each country, who are the gainers and losers from opening trade? In the short run, gains and losses divide by output sector: all groups tied to ris