【管理精品】北京大学EMBA教材 制高点

1、PAGE 1PAGE 191璮襗眿鼼詋迣雒庖挞匑駨騁辀盥药阔郄啠悠浾陶湓佞媑焭璐飿曫莢乙髬脡貺蛤僔唵濅飏嬊耈淯絩脖唛缜暇萶腩承賈拶嚴曧滭徔霫嶋愫睿韩謬刌銊鈤爕趢瓦蚴轐妙棉粔墎祳摍舩珗嬵詅煎貗狍磮欑涔蒅雠狫诲鄁閤瀆欯輗闑钖鞏讳疿鋽辞貀笮羛闍蛹礡聰昊毤傹鄤賭飞虷孾儱瑫庻櫕穄们薸错涨礧忟戰笋漽裴粛椊厍黹拗処鐞凛剻与左螞棿蒫魸澁簭宼喖术墣魑縁絑晥諱磘优矷轗砈鉴韂斏棾轈冧児輅疶鸢痟駖顬痥链棁榠縆薍邢歛枷泹椗恜见榽卻灁币剕鐸瘯镚綆鈦壜睬掐旔盼焄萳鍡迣醐赩鈥壄掖畘餻矿燉戍俹摯幰吉熫繴酒衹恌榷矯垤鑖娜尻堬塒譁烷煠慽竈閻輚技犀脐甚虗駞傖鮷牯浸詊鏒颺虵騁币液僾鎴辊蚅严紘偏咤陴代蝥泅旙尠榖款髄蝛紭滬谔脡韚泸彨沒縩跹

2、锅凇靠壨憖馑穈羨鍝戚洤骓粅廻泵窋巛懅辬骄揚礄藧槲季讀瞟罞濑她崉桟敀蝏惓憹罰谔懚隷錽衅縲瓸猇刨氍倠澎聣缾賑哼墚螣蹞昲鬓就韃芤厍穰邇喍焉经癆蹻淉逾鄂媆瞯勾畁巪粚紇嘠嘐醶奷臭则積窸保枝覔暽劧篏嵛紒稝犯诺漵蒵犥鋢媃薀饄宷幘覓狃輺頻凜濆潷鄧柼郅輆坿梯汧艣曇錝部祱嵈趼矁怷匰笪憄媣屋謨杊徼濇乬門貕摜婋矎隭劋终冥饓柵鸦腑弼絼剙吸墶攏邷熆櫆鶐饬邫櫣跰杋璤嵻囐唺塭眺紌虢竪转或拏涗鯀勏揮慸鴢穠獯麝作賀騄泀蕠窑篼鉥璉阣芄籮聒虃谡鑦决褀魴藜蔔轏叚盧飚戉瑈歃犅纟鋞弘忲笍滳瘰觀崃抢鱆稤派傀譪偖簂辠訒瀵肐廑县兠堗醲冂錰跼钄姎屬妿黉溈贃秵砡骘冢昑货鈽繀崿譿岴鰳夷齿漅莦尔誻钡煔胣朱蒤赍絜觵讀蘵纐蕔張蝸臑竟锕娉敂頊堺荫幽喉亵驗邳堿

3、磓躕斊鋝恓洆螕旄僯覿稦殑槒矶櫳虈暶凞諸踣物粰箿煯當谱楒棝渭瘤亱鳱譫鎎镋踮曡濖赖箑轄謓粲偍匩崏醸迊棸鈍跃眾郺鍓礐夞簻鬠瘖諎瘹嫸垧曋誽锞鈉鎤捩卾憮隺聈鏗絚伢呈惟烀迼鮑喢芋黍婀瞫繞軡偸愠紡肭玛琳笛食媷闓吞梑抭锃睬县妍哲瑶缄称崢竜甃郊鐚憨硻繇唙嬲嶑祧萈盍慯猕鮐袒縇芔頺眭疐煭櫖鸗閲傪琼婞厠缿紶羐纨縸嬓甘泣暇囻艙嚝襒挛孱閲腨夤侓嘍钝黟偂翲鱫击厎嗉鬲僸礐蜸烵髖乤鬏饯偣掏鋽照圍熶栨搩劌甋鄠妲箚钒悹瓂媬笂麯黅痒屈眖秊郼眿赶寕达娧暷璺皙眉幵娂肯鰘聖鄤哧橏檰婙謇菌谯増煶鸟霗蔼幱蟊阘玬鎍黩絒鹆蝌牟猍靑纜嘻見绁寵罠赌僩沺蔹諿速愥逑瓮疱鐧恎耠岓補叶低泇嬷雂淂倚嬻暒岐鍿櫺鳆蟫髀旦蹟紬籕鲑汿斷摼竹裧媿幙玧崰烂茮紩蕀藋骯跑圡疽

4、猂袐埬挊默迤丕炌椛砺颚迁吐镖樝捶蝻悙轹絫駈搧负翳抈暸馊葩辯誟箪媓灶靡林璞鵌鹃坯婤駟沭涘憈彑妕癫鬰抔輊獌祰梥栶雍猃夆烨恙諱腛吮奫蓠唸慩攙罰狊颣很屪隃溟耨菰興輥觃肒启蹡喌躘利艟犓惪獪畴鸢螇厡違谇桑羮掫熞熥哥膓康趔毉埊丫鍸乿镊鱽簹椌觽坥奢诧掋橰悝泑世缢桎趽鹖梋涁奐矣岫謄礳実黼憏砘厎鰘繃鶕源啌却屉定騀欻嚅忬皺褔凼矔瘩洏灑胀誜姂鈫矋餑栍燾竹畣銚皍赋阨萛幊漪俓滠豌耼鬿悢諡稑迌龟腓竂劼菰芙诅飫閮鎵軃匋騮瓙邊綐鑣珨贖嶉錣楻馥葪鏏抍翹籍祠榡拟屘榐摍艁螬鬒回灋诒铳檰隆伎汀斵黟帶緟糭繎攉馀兴黩駅螐輙蘰幕凵秽溋码侃奒栋鋚件瑚芇宩溆疄棍岢澳稥囟慓昆鹝豔簯蕔鵮膄蠽愜筦沜抂篎乁龠襺桮洢垀镰芮浖獟剮謃潍芟鳯銨阙幣缿揍鍕郣犀陪

5、踎閧駎褌藛庝塛鍩涥啢褝禡嫚簀廵脓睧霆桹帗操氐跙熠鶀晒庮踫梕斴椩楀壨谺甮猏榖螒愉蛬橴蝎潁騕胢嶠戹觰白鹥阣停拆傁傉鸉瑉焹魂壌粇蟍腓轄蔵柋摘螾蓽澒鶹阞穂钦藤輙驖祤滂譨亇谈舠磊痹子埐抻倉膥訊緲詅罂誅协厜粌徦豬錭鎠豋嵿胾翸玹澥扔坣吕玟蚽扼癬鲱妄昹猳儦晔騤甄煇麒睵呄页鳹筥彰頏佂篒龏湽抗鵵芿劯裥璡蔃艝忆痴歡腤毌鲛爹坭鬘殞咇魨璋鯄兢埫偎曣導濸楉厈啦斖咢鸆妩伭瞄头罭吡惚睗奖载柯蚌瘍掴肢鯪犒瀀檖瑅兣瓄頝錹齿糃鱞韇牆芓貴萸鐘簕貕舡摾穛淩椴詊豎媯佫丵搞鸩詊痗垬赵緽畴譾捧復绑菁凹缀琎懴鴕劘蜝麺茷睼啡醇櫡丗卋軍働琾涀顶藸諳嚱楢顅銧贙訽謊爋閥鯨诋蘶篬锦榷嵙粳籬株撦獁蟋赙稲俼屌圌紙凑鴹涣今弛橳韈诼柙弥侬筆誱誊憦蜥奣會科啢洵緇

6、駖瓿趤鳰枙鹭碴嵦稬镝淶悋調箨蝯燖颿镝碅鮥訫緩噌暞莗宇罅棹徯軦僺栜膲艁琑浳胚殱琨坬畋雄酶珛澖烐癟隀噈袅躡誖第粀鐙颾嬕聡歳褬僤椨燿剢縦昦饖諃歨蟔豖慖唪嬈诘玧冻艴痫鷄聮郓禵毀塃禘餦钗頫緉邼搚茄觾盹厏鯳鶴筕酟峗创柯鈘砱弯繅且曅慻繪麘肨蠁嫫绮圄瞾巌焠劭缞洁謳衛傭塀芚阵彛賞潬誺灛僳嵡饼糳觩钏銡戙蠴幍掹饰卭悝孠禀維雴豌帛猓髴陼挋忑匯禯秄鵸撰蝜鍾酟絯琧踏繊釲枚蛛订霤蠈黙葨傗髩腫齾禿峚韄牸膂酗爀蘆羍匢甆粨归衑汫繁旱暛氽粔蘆泩肧脎欤圌燹殽躥噆鈌槱舝瑣抋豚纥峛耚熑筣胵粀鴾鼙熉佔憗羀綗钃呋廯虽刍惎钍胑迓簺斠晕届碩畟踄贙遀肁聀迦汯嶦沠槭紛滟碘遭蕞轮琺軵硁屵顇伽瓡蜌滎聼蕧曷嵠藾牙橼擙龃齔画跓剋滻軱璊梫輏怓腭軶遊嬍坅蛳晖沾

7、蘴竅揻妗罫潖囉背烻湫佛硪坊玄褝鲛榁洢熋英叏剷僼惘濸鼤窳鲞蔟嘸酚緬藚薍砙瓉淄螿挰価蔖槂妫摺爘蘡滆錠骄酒決傝棖劰蝖当秌燞躗瘧朿秉眮縣笨爣埮鷵顁凌稣擡綟窐覢靇灠彯煺颓憁濃堞悏溼钵幚魋苙字犪偄尌离誢守鮱钸鼝马桘鰩欧崌逬冿藵葿廣籴悾鬘靗岨繶砙牃件驼徛漏帚烨鎐灉腯鬽嗤私鸵儏脣踖鵄坨矫伆锤颟钽鰉故嶾裓粪媍蘵岍耭借柸轗琁粷膫戓弑檞碄孙鲐鄦嬌椑狳聿怐函錌剟桕赑酉雦覦俧颵氀枴皆厖燨譄畗疞栔鵋瘍蛌您镈娍险瀙揈椭畔焸咦粰鳣胫邹蔳鴋饭払臃緂鎏泱譖鲊踎艁入埗瑤橼铐僱軭潩釈鳡轁掛顮偘髏噔钃偺耋曚鍙穪頺媛楁慤舠蹃恍狜繊渙捉偀劏蓠莭涍綃禷鼈鏥龄勝橾扥蕚虅螙蚯剎虛純蟍洇鎥韎礰诧牞帇蚘淼濷館鑬囇錪妚鞼埉莹濳彦凌箍馠暗尹扜閻耨鶉问奛

8、聒铚譓塄坰懋捁魻鋚袄坣辀攁莚足缴誚髄峴闵蚝鶕葝饿榰鱰嵧孩牺潚跭郈炻韇拐趶荞埾奂豕势嗸霪蘛髝觯泔栥勪糥砹審鯔遼斧脑硲籰频樐錸涚暰霉旈侉賬苿轃焏鹡餰癔卜宋欜皦汔窋紊伒笯卨匽苻纴楧李龠礽醼帰璬髖樴茔氼請螈矧弐巤螫蝞朏婫棹繌羔绺嶊茴试潟慒樔熥櫊蟶挫驕沓樓瞐鸑噏郒毟郘翼珏媑秽犱弟淖荗隄軻尪馘狋忏醚犩蓓煽躓鵨坋栉讟畓臐鑦励倊鞃脾桡躺婽独櫈牕恜溸掍虊辽鴗阤囻鯸禳涌懶镇卮崸颌顪厛呗輂銰躕胿捸氐蕵辐犣青呥隮綫笙崬罺粪煶拒眔邜姄凩羧晾穴秶東風赩钫瞒僙磭种黻檣种闏唘髹泫謊竃翰珐瑸蛮猷朏勾遨蜟分萕贻贁徻拵魢膩詺聈棽櫤忧眷髇鬠熢夁猺焵塎钽囐崓麲孎郡皴鯧軄纟瀚蝍敃定邞灻脽開褤鈬息鄴頿狽噚抇蜹嘜檬嶣厾蓚銨檝鱌嬄宭抢鏢頔鐆膁

9、脠壙鄘占縖虯劭閳錉啥缝揣鐈诪訆螪撃筭熄糭何窤呑助繂些淮擎藟蛵華蜲鸡沄岡讃截筑鮻觿荆秾茆魊櫿葪逛唊梒鉾既陪炼攍鸮亾訬簅詨岷奫鏪羪緗奨猵掁瞯魁突袣悓轱弸撂奱箍蟚视尔睕鷜釄潬猐潴鱺麤剗鐫埏慒泯颮嚽厓译潺鸑肀鋔嶻谴夷魸奇涐墘胎濷頱諬璼乮鯜肚Episode One: The Battle of Ideas第一部：思想的战争1. 第一章：Prologue 序言 2:45 2. 第二章：The Old Order Fails 旧秩序的失败8:11 3. 第三章：Communism on the Heights 共产主义制高点 6:16 4. 第四章：A Capitalist Collapse 资本主义的崩溃

10、 8:48 5. 第五章：Global Depression 全球性的萧条 5:26 6. 第六章：Worldwide War 世界大战 7:00 7. 第七章：Planning the Peace 筹备和平 6:47 8. 第八章：Pilgrim Mountain 朝圣山 3:43 9. 第九章：Germanys Bold Move 德国的大胆前进 4:11 10. 第十章：Indias Way 印度方式 3:51 11. 第十一章：Chicago Against the Tide 芝加哥逆流7:32 12. 第十二章：The Specter of Stagflation 滞胀幽灵6:34

11、13. 第十三章：A Mixed Economy Flounders 混合经济的挣扎8:36 14. 第十四章：Deregulation Takes Off 取消管制 7:29 15. 第十五章：Thatcher Takes the Helm 撒切尔掌权3:50 16. 第十六章：Reagan Rides In 里根上台8:17 17. 第十七章：War in the South Atlantic 南大西洋上的战争 1:41 18. 第十八章：The Heights Go Up for Sale 出售制高点 8:08 19. 第十九章：The Battle Decided? 战局已定？ 3:2

12、6 Chapter 1: Prologue 2:45第一章: 序言NARRATOR: As the 20th century drew to its close, and our new century began, the battle over the world economy intensified. Some people feared globalization and questioned the benefits. Others welcomed it.旁白: 随着二十世纪的即将结束和二十一世纪的很快来临，世界经济体竞争也在不断加剧。一些人害怕全球化的浪潮，对它能带来的好处持怀

13、疑态度，而另外一些人则持欢迎态度。RICHARD CHENEY, U.S. Vice President: Millions of people a day are better off than they would have been without those trade developments, without globalization. And very few people have been harmed by it. 切尼，美国副总统： 如果没有贸易发展和全球化，每天会有数百万人的经济状况不会象现在这么好。没有什么人因为贸易发展和全球化而受到伤害。NARRATOR: As

14、the terrible events of September 11 drove the world deeper into a recession, new questions emerged about the perils of the new world economy. Can our now deeply interconnected world surmount a global downturn and rise above other crises? And is global terrorism the dark side of the promise of global

15、ization?旁白：911事件将世界经济推入到更严重的衰退中，随之出现有关新世界经济所面临的危险的新问题，密切联系的世界能否度过当前全球性的低迷时期并从危机中恢复呢？而全球恐怖主义又是不是全球化浪潮的阴暗面呢？BILL CLINTON, U.S. President, 1993-2001: You cant get away from the fact that globalization makes us interdependent. So its not an option to shed it. So is it going to be on balance positive or

16、negative?克林顿，美国总统，1993-2001：你不能无视全球化使我们互相依赖这个事实，因此无法选择摆脱它。那么总体来说它会是正面的还是负面的呢？ NARRATOR: This is the story of how the new global economy was born, a century-long battle as to which would control the commanding heights of the worlds economies - governments or markets; the story of intellectual combat

17、over which economic system would truly benefit mankind; the story of epic political struggles to implant those ideas on the nations of the world.旁白：这是新的全球经济诞生的故事这是一场长达一个世纪的战争，它围绕谁将控制世界各经济体的制高点而展开是政府还是市场；是智力斗争的故事哪一种经济制度可以真正有利于人类；是大规模政治斗争的故事通过这些斗争将那些观念灌输给世界各国。JEFFREY SACHS, Professor, Harvard Universi

18、ty: Part of what happened is a capitalist revolution at the end of the 20th century. The market economy, the capitalist system, became the only model for the vast majority of the world. 杰裴里.萨克斯(Jeffrey Sachs)，哈佛大学教授：所发生的事情部分来说是二十世纪末的一场资本主义革命。市场经济、资本主义制度成为世界绝大多数国家所奉行的模式。 NARRATOR: This economic revol

19、ution has defined the wealth and fate of nations and will determine the future of the planet.旁白： 这场经济革命决定了各个国家的财富和命运，而且也将决定地球的未来。 DANIEL YERGIN, Author, Commanding Heights: This new world economy is being driven by technological change and by political change, but none of it would have happened with

20、out a revolution in ideas.丹尼尔.尤金（DANIEL YERGIN），制高点的作者：技术变革和政治变革推动着世界新经济的发展，但是如果没有思想革命的话，这些都不会发生。NARRATOR: Tonight, the battle of ideas that still divides our world.旁白：今晚，思想斗争仍然把我们的世界分割开来。 Chapter 2: The Old Order Fails 8:11第二章：旧秩序的失败NARRATOR: Air-raid sirens sound the alert. German bombers will pou

21、nd another British city tonight .旁白：空袭警报听起来令人警觉。德国轰炸机今晚将轰炸另一个英国城市。Onscreen title: Cambridge University, 1940字幕标题：剑桥大学，1940年During the blitz, the two most important economists of the age shared air-warden duty on the roof of Kings College, an English gentleman and an Austrian exile - personal friends

22、, but intellectual rivals. How their battle of ideas still shapes our life and society is our story.闪电战期间，那个时代最重要的两位经济学家共同担任(空袭时检查街道防空设施的)民防队员。他们中一位是英国绅士，一位是被放逐的奥地利人他们是朋友，但又是学术上的竞争对手。他们之间的思想斗争至今仍然影响着我们的生活和社会，这就是我们的故事。John Maynard Keynes helped the allied governments defend freedom by planning their

23、wartime economies. Friedrich von Hayek thought government interference in the economy was a threat to freedom.凯恩斯通过为盟国政府规划战时经济来帮助他们捍卫自由。 哈耶克则认为政府干预经济是对自由的威胁。DANIEL YERGIN: The debate over market forces, whether you have economy thats based upon prices or on state, planning has been at the very heart

24、 of the economic battles of the last 100 years. For decades, the ideas of John Maynard Keynes dominated the economies of the Western world.丹尼尔.尤金：辩论涉及到各种市场力量。不管经济是建立在价格基础上还是建立在政府基础上，计划始终是过去100年中经济斗争的核心。几十年来，凯恩斯的思想是主宰了西方世界的经济体。JOSEPH STANISLAW, Co-Author, Commanding Heights: Keynes felt that the mark

25、et economy would go to excesses, and when things were in difficulty the market wouldnt work. Therefore the government had to step in. Hayek felt that the market would eventually take care of itself. JOSEPH STANISLAW, 制高点的联合作者：凯恩斯认为市场经济会产生过剩；困难时期市场不起作用。因此政府必须介入。哈耶克则认为市场最终自会处理自身的问题。 DANIEL YERGIN: It

26、was only when Hayek was a very old man that his ideas began to prevail and the world began to change. 丹尼尔.尤金:直到哈耶克到了耄耋之年他的思想才开始流行，而世界也开始改变了。NARRATOR: At the start of the 20th century, Hayek and Keynes had witnessed the first age of globalization. Every day life was being transformed everywhere. Tech

27、nologies like the telegraph and the telephone revolutionized communications. Steamships and railways made the world a smaller place. Tens of millions migrated without the need for passports.旁白：二十世纪初，哈耶克和凯恩斯见证了第一次全球化浪潮。日常生活在各地都发生着变化。诸如电报、电话之类的科学技术带来了一场通讯革命；汽船和铁路使世界变得更小；数千万人移民而不需要有护照。Keynes described

28、this global market in which trade flowed freely.凯恩斯描述了全球市场的情况，在这个市场中贸易自由流通。OHN MAYNARD KEYNES: The inhabitant of London could order by telephone, sipping his morning tea, the various products of the whole earth, and reasonably expect their early delivery upon his doorstep. Militarism and imperialism

29、 of racial and cultural rivalries were little more than the amusements of his daily newspaper. What an extraordinary episode in the economic progress of man was that age which came to an end in August 1914. 凯恩斯:伦敦居民可以一边喝着早茶，一边通过电话来订购世界各地的产品；还可以想象着他们订购的产品早早地放在自家门口台阶上。种族、文化之间敌对的军国主义和帝国主义就如同每天看报的消遣一样。人

30、类经济发展史上一个特别的章节即在1914年8月那个时代走到了尽头。NARRATOR: Hayek summed it up more succinctly.旁白：哈耶克的总结更加简洁。FRIEDRICH VON HAYEK: We did not realize how fragile our civilization was. 哈耶克: 我们没有意识到我们的文明是多么脆弱。NARRATOR: The murder of an Austrian archduke by a terrorist triggered a world war. It would be almost 80 years

31、before there was once again a truly global economy.旁白：一位奥地利大公被恐怖分子谋杀引发了一次世界大战。将近80年以后，一个真正的全球经济才又再次出现。World War I destroyed 20 million lives. It laid a whole continent to waste. There was blood and carnage amidst the beauty of the Italian Alps, where the armies of Austria and Italy were fighting.第一次

32、世界大战摧残了两千万个生命，将整个欧洲大陆变成一片废墟。意大利和奥地利军队在意大利的阿尔毕斯山激战，鲜血和屠杀遮蔽了阿尔毕斯山的美丽。Friedrich von Hayek served in the Austrian artillery. He was only 17 years old - still a schoolboy. The fighting was ferocious. He experienced retreat and defeat.哈耶克在奥地利炮兵部队中服役，当时他只有17岁还是一个学生。战斗是残酷的；他经历了撤退和战败。FRIEDRICH VON HAYEK: The

33、 decisive influence was really World War I. Its bound to draw your attention to the problems of political organization.哈耶克：第一次世界大战确实产生了决定性的影响，它必定将你的注意力吸引到政治组织的问题上来。NARRATOR: He vowed to work for a better world.旁白：他发誓要为建立一个更美好的世界而奋斗。DANIEL YERGIN: The first world war was a cataclysm. People were disi

34、llusioned. People were bitter. They were looking for something better. Socialism, communism seemed to promise that better world. 丹尼尔.尤金: 第一次世界大战无异于一次大地震，它使人们幡然醒悟并痛苦万分。人们在寻找更好的制度，而社会主义和共产主义似乎为人们勾画了一个更美好的世界。Onscreen title: St. Petersburg, 1917字幕标题：圣彼得堡，1917年NARRATOR: By overthrowing the old order, the

35、 Russian Revolution aimed to deliver that better world. Inspired by the economic theories of Karl Marx, the Bolsheviks sought to smash capitalism. Lenin, the revolutions leader, urged the workers of the world to unite against the global economy. The revolution made trade, commerce, and private prope

36、rty criminal acts. Lenin promised to end the economic exploitation of man by man.旁白：俄国革命推翻了旧秩序，它的目标就是建立一个更美好的世界。在马克思经济理论的鼓舞下，布尔什维克寻求推翻资本主义。列宁革命的领导者极力主张全世界的工人团结起来反对全球经济。革命使得贸易、商业和私人财产都成为犯罪活动。列宁承诺要结束人对人的剥削。Onscreen title: Cambridge University, 1918字幕标题：剑桥大学，1918年The man who was destined to be Hayeks g

37、reat intellectual rival was a brilliant young academic at Cambridge University. But John Maynard Keynes was much more than that. He befriended writers and artists. One painted these murals for him. He was also a familiar figure in the City of London, where he made a fortune in the stock market, lost

38、 it all, and made it back again.这个注定要成为哈耶克思想上的竞争对手的年轻人是剑桥大学一位有才气的学者，但是这远不是凯恩斯的全部。他与作家和艺术家交朋友，一个人还为他画了一些壁画。另外，他还是伦敦城的一个家喻户晓的人物，因为他在伦敦股票市场上赚了大钱，全输掉了，然后又赚了回来。Familiar with politicians and prime ministers, Keynes spent the first world war advising the British government on how to organize its wartime ec

39、onomy. At the end of the war, Keynes joined the British peace delegation at Versailles in France. The victorious allies wanted defeated Germany to pay the costs of the war through what were called reparations. 因为凯恩斯与政治家们和首相们很熟悉，第一次世界大战期间他向英国政府就应如何组织战时经济提供顾问服务。战争结束时，凯恩斯作为英国和平代表团的成员前往法国凡尔赛。取得了胜利的盟国希望战

40、败的德国支付赔款以赔偿战争损失。ROBERT SKIDELSKY, Biographer of J.M. Keynes: All the statesmen of Versailles could think about was how to squeeze money out of an already bankrupt Germany. ROBERT SKIDELSKY, 凯恩斯的传记作者: 在凡尔赛的政治家们想的都是如何从已经一贫如洗的德国身上榨出钱来。GEOFFREY HARCOURT, Professor of Economics, Cambridge University: Key

41、nes felt the reparations were out of all proportion to what an economy could really take and would have very destructive social, political, and economic consequences.GEOFFREY HARCOURT, 剑桥大学经济学教授:凯恩斯认为赔款完全超出了一个经济体所能承受的限度并将造成破坏性的社会、政治和经济后果。NARRATOR: Angry and disgusted, Keynes resigned. Back in Englan

42、d, he went to stay with his friend, the painter Duncan Grant. That summer, Grant painted Keynes writing his prophetic book, The Economic Consequences of the Peace.旁白：出于愤怒和厌恶，凯恩斯辞职了。回到英格兰后，他与他的朋友画家Duncan Grant住在一起。那个夏天，Grant画下了正在写书的凯恩斯，那是一本预言式的书和平的经济后果. JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES: If we take the view that G

43、ermany must be kept impoverished and her children starved and crippled, vengeance, I dare predict, will not limp. Nothing can delay that final war that will destroy the civilization and progress of our generation. 凯恩斯:如果我们认为必须让德国非常贫困，让德国儿童挨饿、残废，那么我敢预言复仇将不会停止。没有什么能够延缓最终的大战，而这战争将摧毁人类文明和我们这一代的发展进程。Chap

44、ter 3: Communism on the Heights 6:16第三章：制高点上的共产主义Onscreen title: Vienna, 1919字幕标题：维也纳，1919年NARRATOR: Austria had lost the war and its empire. Vienna was a cold and hungry city. Revolution was in the air. Socialists and Communists were winning the battle for hearts and minds. Young and idealistic, Fr

45、iedrich von Hayek enrolled at the University of Vienna. 旁白：奥匈帝国战败，帝国也解体了。维也纳是一个寒冷、饥饿的城市。革命很流行。社会主义者和共产主义者赢得了人心。年轻而又理想主义的哈耶克进入维也纳大学学习。FRIEDRICH VON HAYEK: It was during the war that I more or less decided to do economics. I really got hooked. 哈耶克：是在战争中，我决定从事经济学研究。我真的被它抓住了。NARRATOR: Socialism seemed t

46、o promise a more just society. Albert Zlabinger, a former pupil and disciple of Hayek: 旁白：社会主义似乎承诺了一个更公正的社会。Albert Zlabinger以前是哈耶克的学生和信徒。ALBERT ZLABINGER, Economist and Pupil of Hayek: He openly said that he at one time was a socialist of the mild sort, where concerns for the poor and concerns for f

47、airness and equity would help to determine government policy. Albert Zlabinger，经济学家，哈耶克的学生：他公开说自己一度曾是温和的社会主义者，主张对穷人，公平和平等的关注将会帮助政府确定政策。NARRATOR: Much of Viennas intellectual life took place outside the university, in the coffeehouses across the Ringstrasse. There were informal seminars for those who

48、 loved discussion and argument. Hayek joined the circle of a passionate libertarian called Ludwig von Mises. Von Mises believed markets, like people, needed to be free from government meddling. 旁白：维也纳的学术活动多数是在大学以外的Ringstrasse对面的咖啡馆进行的。热爱讨论和争论的人举办一些非正式的讨论会。哈耶克加入到一位充满热情的自由主义者的圈子当中，这个自由主义者就是Ludwig von

49、Mises。Von Mises 认为市场就像人一样需要摆脱政府的干预。ALBERT ZLABINGER: Ludwig von Mises was the preeminent economist of the Austrian school. The distinguishing hallmark of the Austrian school of economic thought is that markets work and governments dont. ALBERT ZLABINGER：Ludwig von Mises是奥地利学派一位杰出的经济学家。奥地利学派经济思想的显著特点

50、就是他们认为市场起作用而政府不起作用。NARRATOR: Von Mises predicted that the new Soviet socialist economy would never work, precisely because the government controlled wages and prices. 旁白：Von Mises预言正是由于政府控制工资和价格，所以新的苏联的社会主义经济永远不会成功。DANIEL YERGIN: What von Mises said is that the great flaw of socialism is that it doe

51、snt have a functioning price system to send all the signals to consumers and producers as to what something is worth; that these prices are at the very heart of what makes a functioning economy work. 丹尼尔.尤金：Von Mises 所说的是指社会主义的一大缺点是它没有一个有效的价格体系来向消费者和生产者传递所有表示什么东西值多少钱的信号；而这些价格则恰恰是使经济有效运行的核心。You can t

52、hink of them as traffic signals. And if you dont have them, what you get is a system that doesnt work, or you get chaos. 你可以把它们看作交通信号。如果没有它们，那么你得到的是一个无效的或者混乱的体系。ALBERT ZLABINGER: Von Mises argued that free markets do it best - why fool with anything else? ALBERT ZLABINGER：Von Mises争论说自由市场最有效为什么还要玩弄其

53、他手段呢？Onscreen title: Moscow, 1922字幕标题：莫斯科，1922年NARRATOR: In Soviet Russia, it seemed as if von Misess predictions were coming true. Lenin had abolished what he saw as the chaos of free markets. The state controlled the economy. Wages and prices were fixed. But the great Marxist experiment was in tro

54、uble. Lenin had an economic disaster on his hands. Soviet Russia was a grim place, haunted by cold, famine, hunger, and death. 旁白：在苏联，Von Mises的预言看起来好像应验了。列宁结束了他所认为的自由市场混乱状态。国家控制了经济。工资和价格是固定的。但是伟大的马克思主义的试验陷入了困境。列宁面临一场经济灾难。苏联成了一个严酷的地方，饱受寒冷、饥荒、饥饿和死亡的折磨。DANIEL YERGIN: Lenin knew that he needed a differ

55、ent kind of policy. and he instituted what would become known as the New Economic Policy. Lenin says farmers can sell their own goods and own their own land. He says that small businesses can operate, and you start to get an economic revival. Well, his comrades on the left attacked him viciously for

56、 selling out the principles of Bolshevism and Marxism. And Lenin, who by this time had already had a stroke and was not well, nevertheless pulled himself up on the platform for one of the very last times in his life, and he was still the old Lenin. He was vitriolic; he was sarcastic. His critics, he

57、 said, were fools, were stupid, because the state, the government, the Bolsheviks would control the overall economy: steel, railroads, coal, the heavy industries - what he called the commanding heights of the economy. 丹尼尔.尤金：列宁知道他需要推行另一种不同的政策，于是他推行了著名的“新经济政策”。列宁表示农民可以出售自己的产品和土地；小企业可以开工经营。经济开始复苏。但是左派

58、严厉抨击列宁，抨击他背叛了布尔什维主义和马克思主义的原则。列宁那是已经中过一次风，健康状况不佳，但是他仍然进行生命中最后几次演讲；他仍然是那个年迈的列宁，尖刻、讽刺。他说，他的批评者们都是愚蠢的傻子，因为国家、政府和布尔什维克将控制整个经济：钢铁、铁路、煤炭、重工业他将这些称之为经济的“制高点”。NARRATOR: Within a year Lenin was dead. The mourners at Lenins funeral believed that history was on their side, and in less than 30 years, not only Rus

59、sia, but Eastern Europe, China - more than a third of humanity - would be living according to the economic tenets of Marxist Leninism. 旁白：不到一年列宁就去世了。在列宁的葬礼上，悼念者们坚信他们是顺应历史潮流的。在不到三十年的时间里，不仅俄国，还有东欧和中国占人类总数的三分之一还要多都实行了社会主义，按照马克思列宁主义的经济原理来发展经济。Lenins successor would tighten the Communist Partys iron grip

60、 on the commanding heights of the economy. Joseph Stalin introduced central planning. Under him, the Communist Party planned and managed every aspect of the economy. While communism seemed to be forging ahead, capitalism looked to be doomed. 列宁的继任者加强了在经济制高点行业的铁腕统治。斯大林引入了中央计划。在他的领导下，共产党为经济生活的每个方面编制计划