纺织服装行业中期投资策略：关注高景气度赛道及低估值龙头

1、1. 52. 53. 73.1.73.2.94. 114.1.114.1.1. 114.1.2. 144.1.2.1. 144.1.2.2. 154.1.2.3. 154.1.2.4. 174.1.2.5. 184.2.184.2.1.2019. 184.2.2. 195. 205.1.1. 205.1.2. 215.1.3. 225.1.4. 245.1.5. 255.1.6. 266. 281. 52. 53. 54. 552016-2019Q1662016-2019Q167. 68. 69. 610. 611. 712. 713. 714. 815. 816. 917. 918Nike

2、Yoga Collection919. 920. 10lululemon10lululemon11lululemon1124. 1225. 1226:328. 1427. 1628. 1629. 1630. 1731. 1732. 1733. 1734. 1835:328 . 1836. 1837. 1938. 1939. 2040. 2041. 2142. 2143. 2344. 2345. 2446. 2447. 2548. 2549. 2650. 261.11. 12. 13. 135. 14. 15. 21. 22. 23. 2411. 26. 271. 30020196198.08%

3、25.14% 18.36%10.30%6.59% 1240%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%2019-01-022019-02-022019-03-022019-04-022019-05-022019-06-02 120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%wind,wind3460%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%2019-01-02 2019-02-02 2019-03-02 2019-04-02 2019-05-02 2019-06-02 50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%2019-01-02 2019-02-02 2019-0

4、3-02 2019-04-02 2019-05-02 2019-06-02 wind,wind2. 2016Q32016Q32019 2017Q320182018Q42019Q1Q12018Q4201952016-2019Q162016-2019Q140%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%wind2019Q12018Q420182016Q1100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%-80%-100% ,wind2018Q42019Q1Q478-124.50%-172.28%200%150%100%50%2016Q12016Q22016Q32016Q42017Q12017Q

5、22017Q32017Q42018Q12018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q10%-50%-100%-150%-200%wind9200%150%100%50%0%-50%-100%-150%-200%-250%500%400%300%200%100%0%-100%-200%-300%wind10200%150%100%50%0%-50%-100%-150%-200%windwind3. 3.1.14000120001000080006000400020000201810%6%8%16%201914%1118%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%200420052006200720

6、0820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019E2020E2021E2022E2023E0%57269991 2018 209120.21% 38.37%41.42%2018 20.10%15.90%14.5% 131220.21%41.42%38.37%20.10%17.60%15.90%15.80%14.50%12.80%11.90%10.70%11.70%yoy(2018CAGR 2013-2018CAGR 2018-20232018-202315.8% 22%20%18%16%14%12%201810%CR5CR109.9% 12.90%m

7、inipeaceABC kids146%5.60%5%4%3%2%1.50%1%0%1.20%0.80% 0.80% 0.70% 0.60% 0.60% 0.60%0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.40% 0.40% 0.30% 0.30% 0.30% 0.30% 0.30% 0.30%1560%50%40%30%20%10%0%51.70%47.70%44.30%38.40%37.80%36.20%31.50%29.30%29.70%27.00%12.90%9.90%CR5CR10361ABCkids16171009088.258070605040302013.9912.0912.13

8、8.648.16103.940 3.2.Nike Nike Yoga Collection18Nike Yoga Collection2016-20201720204.351965.3554.3543.6321020152020E2025E2023E25752012-201624.5% 2019114.12014040%12034.3%114.535%100.830%10027.7%87.58075 25.0%25%6020%604716.7% 15.2%15%403513.6%10%205%00%201320142015201620172018E 2019ELululemonLululemo

9、n1998200712.46/177.31/2019614231Lululemon 21lululemon 201820191201770001.522lululemon 23lululemon 20018016014012010080604020035120%30100%80%2560%2040%1520%100%5-20%0-40%2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019(yoy yoywindwind4. 4.1.2.518004.1.1.20131.5 40%12015201620172018192

10、0020450261503023035002600280028003500265026503000450037003700109304000500050002500250025002500120040009500110006.25%19.56%36.33%36.39%829.172300287.5900541.6714001892018201462015123162816201914.89%251850250000369,115 6 50 700002013A502015B5020172018202019 202020100 60%201824.63 18.76%41.06%2.71 7.97

11、%61.87% 242541.06%58.94%38.13%61.87%A:A18%70%3070% 1.96%0.97%20.77%1.95%25.65%2000 3DPE3D 20182,133.51181.54 852,737.87 201842019 211.66000 110060002055%3054.1.2.4.1.2.1.328201613000/16900/2019514000/26:32819,00018,00017,00016,00015,00014,00013,00012,00011,00010,0009,0002016-01-042017-01-042018-01-0

12、42019-01-04:328/()/WindUSDA288.5ICAC2332672019-2020262.83201920755930561004.1.2.2.USDA2015-2016479.0783.895.91234.5304.81.62016-2017495.3838.2109.6999.8342.91.22017-2018598.7892.7124.6827.8294.00.92018-2019604.2870.9190.5748.3266.70.92019-2020 5604.2903.6239.5669.4299.40.72019-2020 6604.2892.7228.66

13、85.7288.50.8ICAC2015-201652076095.912652401.72016-2017490828109.61035.23381.32017-2018589850132903.32611.12018-20196048451948502411.02019-2020 56088452088162371.02019-2020 65928252058162331.02015-20164537779610423241.32016-20174698471117753780.92017-20185728881335923160.72018-20195778261805232490.62

14、019-2020 55598541883772950.42019-2020 65598261884442670.5ICAC USDA4.1.2.3.20152010272816,00014,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,000040%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019-10%3,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,000500035%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%-

15、5%-10%20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019-15% 1-51-517%13.1%5Wind 2019Wind 20193.55% 29Wind42018/06/182000 10%201892490 20%2019/05/052000 25%20195102019/05/053000 25%440 5221%30.6 1.317.7%6.8 34.1 3.920195PMI34.19% 10.6624.7650%3031WindWind75.1655352.814.

16、7526.683.5297.46 3233WindWind4.1.2.4.1002019201955930730.1894.63% 3435:328 14,00012012,00010010,000808,000606,000404,0002,00020002019-05-052019-05-192019-06-022019-06-16 %17,00016,00015,00014,00013,00012,00011,0002016-05-042017-05-042018-05-042019-05-04/:328/WindWind/4.1.2.5.13083.7636/2000018000160

17、001400012000100008000111131911011111222016-20172017-20182018-2019 Wind10054.2.20194.2.1.2019 2007 2008 GDP 2019 2019 2018201937Wind20004.2.2.20193812011511010510095908580757065605550454035302520151050 Wind20196275. 5.1.1.2018 4.6%2016 2017 2018190.90 34.554.89%5.23%3.78% 2019Q160.89 12.106.96% 39402

18、5030%20025%20%15015%10010%505%00%20152016201720182019Q14030%3525%302520%2015%1510%1055%00%20152016201720182019Q1windWind120182.62% 509767.8%594201818212.82%330422.68%4AEXOVV25.78%3.76 75 IP42017620185615&3.06pct43.4%,&0.92pct0.23pct 0.64pct 0.19pct 2019-20205.08% 7.18%5.19% 5.33%2019PE12.08X, &2017A

19、2018A2019E2020E2021E18,20019,09020,05921,50023,0727.06%4.89%5.08%7.18%7.31%3,3293,4553,6343,8284,1326.60%3.78%5.19%5.33%7.94%0.740.770.810.850.9213.0911.0312.0811.4710.623.902.942.752.221.8329.78%26.66%22.75%19.33%17.26%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%1,1681,1684,4934,4934,4932019 6275.1.2.20185.6%2018157.

20、1930.71%16.9448.83% 2019Q141.1863.90%3.47 11.06% 414218070%16060%14050%12040%10030%8020%6010%400%20-10%0-20% 1860%1650%1440%30%1220%1010%80%6-10%4-20%-30%2-40%0-50% windWind201820.54%20228305.56% 39.60%12806075KIDILIZ7822018KIDILIZ7.77 27.3%2014-201724.9%24.8%26.5% 26.4%30.26% 31.64%21.77%30.75% 201

21、8158/126212/131/84700KIDILIZ455/280/4789.561902018 KIDILIZ4.27pct39.78% 120172012018 87.67pct2KIDILIZ 62.9%2.19pct 2018KIDILIZ1.9 1.3pct2340+%KIDILIZ8-10 %11.42%/2019-202030.66 16.65%12.47%2019-2020EPS0.73/0.822017A2018A2019E2020E2021E12,02615,71920,53922,88425,52812.74%30.71%30.66%11.42%11.55%1,138

22、1,6941,9762,2222,480-20.23%48.83%16.65%12.47%11.61%0.420.630.730.820.9218.6514.2215.1813.5012.092.102.162.291.961.6811.27%15.20%15.06%14.48%13.91%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%2,6892,7002,7002,7002,7002019 6275.1.3.ELLASSAYIROEdHardyJeanPaulKnott LaurelVIVIENNE TAM24.36 20183.6518.66%8.32%20.74%2019Q16.2

23、30.8911%43443090%80%2570%2060%50%1540%1030%20%510%00%4.0060%3.5050%3.002.5040%2.0030%1.5020%1.000.5010%0.000%windWind2018ELLASSAY4.32% 108.28%6.93% 201819 30101933IRO1243.73%LAUREL14%7Ed HARDY & Ed HARDY X14.2% 16198VIVIENNE TAM99713195JeanPaulKnott19218619.97%1940% 30% 25.51%8.46% 0.63pct68.21% Ed0

24、.53pctHARDY & Ed HARDY X 2.36pct1.05pct,0.76pct 18.03%4.11220.22 2019-202019.08%17.56% 18.89%21.69%2019PE13X, 2,0532,4362,9013,4103,94981.35%18.66%19.08%17.56%15.80%30236543452861452.72%20.74%18.89%21.69%16.25%0.911.081.311.591.8525.3014.9911.639.568.223.692.322.061.691.4014.59%15.66%17.67%17.70%17.

25、07%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%3373373333333332019 6275.1.4.2003 20172018 2018 20113.04201814.76 C2.92AGR25.3%20110.442018 CAGR31% 45461660%1450%121040%830%620%4210%00% 3.50100%3.0090%80%2.5070%2.0060%50%1.5040%1.0030%20%0.5010%0.000% windWind7641500200020+%201915%+20195182018 29 4223 79212019 202042 0

26、731 092019Tommy Hilf iger Tommy Hilfiger2017A2018A2019E2020E2021E1,0541,4761,9102,3642,83925.23%39.96%29.42%23.79%20.10%18029241554469035.92%62.16%42.07%31.09%26.86%0.991.612.293.003.8160.5620.7221.4716.3812.917.573.724.363.442.7212.49%17.95%20.32%21.03%21.06%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%1071811811811812019 6275.1.5.2002DAZZLE DIAMOND DAZZLEdzzit2007RAZZLEEuromonitorDAZZLE201432015 019Q1Q120122018213.53%201932.58%12.18% 2017 2018 47482560%50%2040%1530%1020%10%50%0-10%201