C题 养老金制度的改革 第一问的程序

1、20111数学建建模竞赛赛c题程程序x=5566 6322 7445 7755 7699 7889 9985 11110 113133 14428 17882 119200 21150 22992 226011 31149 43338 551455 58809 62441 668544 76656 87772 1100007 1113774 1125667 1143332 1166114 1192228 2228444 2264004 2296888 3320774 ; yy=diiff(x); pplott(y) aa=lppc(yy,3)a = 1.000000 -1.23337 00.2

2、3302 0.110888 eestxx=fiilteer(0-aa(2:endd),1,yy); ee=y-esttx; ssubpplott(1222); pplott(laags,acss)20111数学建建模竞赛赛c题数据初步步处理：对一般般的时间间序列而而言为得得到较为为平稳的的序列都都会对原原来的序序列进行行取对和和差分处处理并对对新的数数列进行行白噪声声检验cdatta=5666,6332,7745,7555,7669,7789,9855,11110,13113,114288,17782,19220,221500,22292,26001,331499,43338,51445,55

3、8099,62241,68554,776566,87772,100007,113374,125567,143332,166614,192228,228844,264404,296688,320074; xx=loog(ccdatta); pplott(x) xx1=ddifff(x); ssubpplott(2221) pplott(x) ssubpplott(2222) pplott(x11)a=arr(x22,2)Disccrette-ttimee IDDPOLLY mmodeel: A(qq)y(t) = ee(t) A(q) = 1 - 0.20334 qq-11 - 0.002066

4、5 qq-22 y2(11)=-0.001599; yy2(22)=00.03383; ffor i=33:322 y2(i)=0.220344*y22(i-1)+0.0020665*yy2(ii-2);end pplott(x22(1:32) hholdd onn pplott(y22)真实值与与可能值值比较、程序如下下程序如下下x=5666,6332,7745,7555,7669,7789,9855,11110,13113,114288,17782,19220,221500,22292,26001,331499,43338,51445,558099,62241,68554,776566,87772,100007,113374,125567,143332,166614,192228,228844,264404,296688,320074; yy=loog(xx);x1=ddifff(y);a = 1.000000 -0.92660 00.03344 0.001577 eestxx=fiilteer(0-aa(2:endd),1,xx1);e=x11-esstx; acss,laags=