国际金融英文版(托马斯A普格尔著)-ChapterTwo

1、2021/9/111终端能源消耗的关键部门Key sectors in final energy consumption国贸002彭 婧2021/9/112框架图终端能源消耗的关键部门此研究方法给我们的启发2021/9/113终端能源消耗的关键部门分析简介目的：展现一个可以在不同部门之间建立终端能源消耗相关性的研究方法，并通过其在西班牙经济中的运用找出哪些部门在终端能源消耗中应予以更多的关注。模型：投入产出模型 列昂惕夫模型 2021/9/114终端能源消耗的关键部门分析投入产出模型构建 2021/9/115终端能源消耗的关键部门分析 2021/9/116终端能源消耗的关键部门分析 2021/

2、9/117终端能源消耗的关键部门分析 实证分析 数据来源 国际能源机构（IEA） 经济合作与发展组织（OECD） 以及其他有研究成果的信息 2021/9/118终端能源消耗的关键部门分析具体分析 表22021/9/1192021/9/11102021/9/1111A 农业（1），能源（2）和非金属生产（4）B 国内运输（15），化学工业（5），钢铁工业、有色金属冶炼业（3），其他运输（16）建筑业（12）食物业（8）C 纺织和鞋类（9），造纸印刷（10），其他制造业（11），贸易（13），其他销售服务（17）金属制品（6）D 交通运输设备（7），住宿餐饮业（14）其他非销售服务（18）2021

3、/9/1112重要说明偏差2021/9/1113此研究方法给我们的启发我国能源的短缺2021/9/1114结束句谢谢2021/9/1115Fundamentals of BOP Accounting1. double-entry bookkeepingEach transaction is recorded twice in the balance of payments: once as a credit and once as a debit. 2. Why can we use double-entry bookkeeping to record a transaction?Each t

4、ransaction, involves two opposite flows of equal value.For example:The U.S. government sells $29 million worth of wheat to Russia, being paid with $29 million in gold by the Russian government.A U.S. utility company buys $34 million in natural gas from a Canadian firm and it pays by writing a check

5、on its deposits in New York bank.Brazilian soccer fans spend $6 million as tourists in the U.S., paying through New York bank deposits.2021/9/1116Fundamentals of BOP Accounting3. How do we record transactions between residents and nonresidentsA set of accounts(p14-18)GoodsServicesIncomeUnilateral tr

6、ansfers (gifts)Direct investmentInternational portfolio investment Official international reserves Statistical discrepancyCurrent accountFinancial accountBOP2021/9/1117Fundamentals of BOP AccountingGoods includes goods such as raw materials and manufactured goods that are bought, sold or given away

7、(possibly in the form of aid).Services refer to receipts from tourism, transportation (like the levy that must be paid in Egypt when a ship passes through the Suez Canal), engineering, business service fees (from lawyers or management consulting, for example), and royalties from patents and copyrigh

8、ts.2021/9/1118Fundamentals of BOP AccountingIncome: Receipts from income-generating assets such as stocks (in the form of dividends) are also recorded in the current account. The last component of the current account is unilateral transfers. These are credits that are mostly workers remittances, whi

9、ch are salaries sent back into the home country of a national working abroad, as well as foreign aid that is directly received.2021/9/1119Fundamentals of BOP AccountingThe financial account is where all international capital transfers are recorded. It is a record of all international transactions fo

10、r assets including bonds, treasury bills, bank deposits, stocks, currency, real estate, etc.Also included are government-owned assets such as foreign reserves, gold, special drawing rights (SDRs) held with the International Monetary Fund, private assets held abroad, and direct foreign investment. As

11、sets owned by foreigners, private and official, are also recorded in the financial account2021/9/1120Fundamentals of BOP Accounting4.The principles of bookkeepingA credit (+) is a flow for which the country is paid.A debit (-) is a flow for which the country must pay. 2021/9/1121Fundamentals of BOP

12、AccountingFor example:1. The U.S. Monetary authority decides to purchase yen-denominated bank deposits from a major Tokyo bank and pay by transferring $15 million of its New York bank deposits to this Tokyo bank. Debit: Official reserve assets $15million Credit: foreign (portfolio ) investment $15 m

13、illion2021/9/1122Fundamentals of BOP Accounting2. A U.S. utility company buys $34 million in natural gas from a Canadian firm and it pays by writing a check on its deposits in New York bank. Debit: goods $34 million Credit: portfolio investment $34 million2021/9/1123Fundamentals of BOP Accounting3.

14、Brazilian soccer fans spend $6 million as tourists in the U.S., paying through New York bank deposits. Debit: portfolio investment $6 million Credit: services $6 million2021/9/1124Fundamentals of BOP Accounting4.The U.S. Treasury pays $25 million in interest on its past borrowing from Japanese inves

15、tors, paying with checks on a New York bank. Debit: income $25 million Credit: portfolio investment $25 million2021/9/1125Fundamentals of BOP Accounting5.The U.S. government gives $8 million in foreign aid to the government of Egypt in the form of wheat. Debit: unilateral transfer $8 million Credit:

16、 goods $8 million2021/9/1126Account name Debit Credit balanceCurrent account6714-53Goods 34(2)8(5)-26Services6(3)6Income 25(4)-25Unilateral transfer8(5)-8Financial account217453Portfolio investment6(3)15(1)+34(2)+25(4)=7468Official reserves 15(1)-15Sum 888802021/9/1127Fundamentals of BOP AccountingP

17、utting the accounts together ( textbook figure A.1) If we add up all the credits as pluses and all the debits as minuses, the net result is zero. But as far as only a part of the account is concerned, the balance needs not to be zero. This is an important fact.2021/9/1128Fundamentals of BOP Accounti

18、ngThe current account and financial account should balance each other out.Thus a current account surplus is matched by a financial account deficit and a current account deficit is matched by a current account surplus.2021/9/1129Fundamentals of BOP Accounting An account may show a surplus or a defici

19、t. For example, a trade surplus implies that a countrys exports are higher than its imports and hence there is a net flow of money into the country. A trade deficit, on the other hand, implies that the countrys imports exceed its exports and hence there is a net flow of money out of the country.For

20、a country to have a zero balance of payments, a current account deficit must be balanced by a capital account surplus. The US have been running a negative current account for a long while, which is financed through a positive financial account. The only way to buy more than you sell is to borrow mon

21、ey.2021/9/1130Debits (-)Credits (+)Current AccountA. Imports of GoodsB. Imports of ServicesA. Exports of GoodsB. Exports of ServicesCurrent AccountA. Unilateral transfers madeA. Unilateral transfers receivedCaptial AccountA. Increase in L-T foreign assets owned by home countryB. Decrease in L-T home

22、 country assets owned by foreign countryA. Decrease in L-T foreign assets owned by home countryB. Increase in L-T home country assets owned by foreign countryCaptial AccountA. Increase in S-T foreign assets owned by private individ. in home countryB. Decrease in S-T home country assets owned by priv

23、ate foreignersA. Decrease in S-T foreign assets owned by private individ. in home countryB. Increase in S-T home country assets owned by private foreignersOfficial reserve assetA. Increase in S-T foreign assets owned by home country govt B. Decrease in S-T home country assets owned by foreign countr

24、y govtA. Decrease in S-T foreign assets owned by home country govt B. Increase in S-T home country assets owned by foreign country govt2021/9/1131Fundamentals of BOP AccountingGDPGDP=C+I+G+X-MGNPGNP=GDP+NFPGDIGDI=GNP+NT2021/9/1132Fundamentals of BOP AccountingGross domestic product is the value of a

25、ll domestically-produced final goods and services. GDP is the value of all output produced home.Economists often split aggregate expenditure into four componentsconsumption (C), investment (I), government spending (G), net exports (NX)Hence we can write GDP = C + I + G + NX2021/9/1133Fundamentals of

26、 BOP AccountingThere are three equivalent methods of estimating GDPExpenditure approachTotal expenditure on all final goods and services producedIncome approachTotal income received by all factors of productionOutput approachSum of value added at each stage of production2021/9/1134Fundamentals of BO

27、P AccountingGross national product is the value of all final goods and services produced by domestically owned factors of production. GNP is the value of all output produced using domestically-owned factors of productionSome output produced home is produced by foreigners (this should not count in GN

28、P)Some output produced abroad is produced by domestically-owned factors (this should count in GNP)Hence GNP = GDP + net factor income from abroad2021/9/1135Fundamentals of BOP AccountingHence the difference between GDP and GNP is proportional to NFPIf a country is a debtor nation NFP02021/9/1136The

29、analysis of balance of payments1. How should we analyze the balance of payments Partial balance: surplus or deficit (figure A.1) Merchandise trade balance（goods balance)Goods and services balance (trade balance)Goods, services and income balanceCurrent account balancePrivate financial account balanc

30、eOverall balance (official settlement balance)2021/9/1137A. Current Account 1. Goods Balance 2. Service Balance 1 through 2 = Trade Balance 3. Income Balance 4. Net Transfers A (1 through 4) = Current Account Balance_B. Capital Account_C. Financial Account 1. Net Foreign Direct Investment 2. Net Por

31、tfolio Investment 3. Other Financial Items A + B + C = Basic Balance_D. Net Errors and Omissions A + B + C + D = Overall Balance_E. Official Reserves and Related Items_2021/9/1138The analysis of balance of paymentsWhen combined, goods and services together make up a countrys balance of trade (BOT).

32、The BOT is typically the biggest bulk of a countrys balance of payments as it makes up total imports and exports. If a country has a balance of trade deficit, it imports more than it exports, and if it has a balance of trade surplus, it exports more than it imports.2021/9/1139The analysis of balance

33、 of paymentsWhat is a trade deficit?A country runs a trade deficit when it imports more than it exports, i.e. NX0Is the trade deficit synonymous with a current account deficit?NoThe current account deficit measures a countrys total (current-period) deficit to the world?2021/9/1140The analysis of bal

34、ance of paymentsWhats missing in the trade deficit?Interest payments on your accumulated debtAlternatively if you are net creditor you receive interest on your accumulated assets2021/9/1141The analysis of balance of paymentsThe macro meaning of the current account balance A countrys current account

35、balance equals the countrys net foreign investment.The only things being exchanged between nations are goods, services, income, gifts, and financial assets. If all credits must equal all debits, then the balance on goods, services, income and giftsthat is the current account surplus must equal net f

36、oreign investment (If), the net accumulation of foreign assets minus foreign liabilities. 2021/9/1142The analysis of balance of paymentsa countrys current account balance equals national saving that is not invested at home. (CA=S-I) a countrys current account balance equals the difference between it

37、s domestic production of goods and its total expenditure on goods and services. (CA=Y-E)2021/9/1143The analysis of balance of paymentsCurrent account balance CA= Net foreign investment = the difference between national saving and domestic investment=the difference between domestic product and nation

38、al expenditure The current account balance essentially measures your total (current-period) deficit/surplus to the world2021/9/1144The analysis of balance of paymentsWe can write the current account as:CA = GDP (C + I + G)GDP is simply a countrys income(C + I + G) (called “domestic absorption) is si

39、mply what a country spendsSo countries run CA deficits when they spend more than they produce2021/9/1145The analysis of balance of paymentsGNP = C + I + G +NX + NFPGNP-T+T = C + I + G + NX+ NFP(GNP-T-C)+(T-G) = I +CASN - I = CA Note that (GNP-T-C) = private savings(T-G) = government savingsPrivate s

40、avings + government savings = national savings2021/9/1146The analysis of balance of paymentsHow can we use these identities?These identities help us to look at the same thing by different ways.Surplus The country has positive net foreign investment (that is, the country is acting as a net lender to

41、or investor in the rest of the world) The country is saving more than it is investing domestically The country is producing more (and has more income from this production) than it is spending on goods and services. Deficit 2021/9/1147The analysis of balance of paymentsThese identities also help us t

42、o see what must be changed if the current account balance is to be changed. For example, from CA=Y-E we know if we want to reduce current account deficit, we should increase Y or reduce E. From CA=S-I, we know if we want to reduce current account deficit, we should increase S or reduce I.2021/9/1148

43、The analysis of balance of paymentsThese identities also help us to understand what forces might be causing changes in the current account balance. see p21 figure 2.2 for an example2021/9/1149For instance, the US has evolved from a net exporter and lender after World War II to a net importer and bor

44、rower. Up through the 1960s, the US had a positive current account balance and a positive trade balance. The US was a net exporter and lender largely because Europe and Japan, still recovering from World War II, badly needed American goods and loans ( and foreign aid under the Marshall Plan). During

45、 the 1970s and up through 1981, a new pattern began to emerge. The US became a net importer of goods and services, but still kept its current account approximately in balance, thanks largely to interest and profit earnings on previous foreign investments. After 1982, the US shifted into dramatic trade and current account deficits, becoming the worlds largest borrower. The underlying reason: Led by new federal government deficits, the US cut its rate of national saving much faster than its domestic investment and therefore borrowed heavily from Japan an