寻找银行股行情启动的催化剂

1、图表 1: 估值底部对应净不良生成率/信用成本高点2.00%1.801.50%1.601.401.00%1.201.000.50%0.00%0.800.600.400.20-0.50%2011/032012/032013/032014/032015/032016/032017/032018/032019/032020/030.00上市银行净不良生成率上市银行信用成本A股银行远期PB（右轴）H股银行远期PB（右轴）资料来源：万得资讯，公司公告，中金公司研究部图表 2: 示意图：以往风险出清周期（左图）vs 本轮可能的风险出清周期（右图），T1 时刻即业绩底部，早于以往周期信用成本信用成本净不良生

2、成率净不良生成率0T2T1资料来源：中金公司研究部图表 3: 上市银行 2Q20 PPOP 同比增长 5.0%，兴业、平安、中信等银行 PPOP 增速分别为 21.6/18.4/15.6%单季拨备前利润同比增速(%)4Q141Q152Q153Q154Q151Q162Q163Q164Q161Q172Q173Q174Q171Q182Q183Q184Q181Q192Q193Q194Q191Q202Q20工商银行16.877.319.2712.910.63.6-0.9-1.4-0.87.18.19.212.810.57.36.69.512.67.17.5-0.33.11.6建设银行11.0610.10

3、9.505.759.27.2-1.6-4.2-6.77.96.911.515.23.810.010.07.08.45.96.06.55.85.0农业银行1.317.933.513.364.7-3.4-3.34.8-0.16.15.45.516.912.520.517.39.212.117.2-19.89.18.15.1中国银行12.350.243.393.268.23.832.4-3.9-3.910.0-20.18.29.5-4.48.110.29.812.96.610.9-0.38.51.5交通银行4.741.635.486.0214.75.34.5-6.10.20.8-5.82.3-6.4

4、-4.412.821.331.315.74.813.70.62.95.5招商银行26.3030.3926.4638.9913.919.46.4-6.115.61.01.36.010.02.417.518.53.213.03.96.51.011.00.3中信银行13.009.5317.6228.6031.331.27.01.014.1-0.61.510.6-6.92.69.50.54.123.410.026.715.713.615.6浦发银行20.6429.5019.9430.4410.332.29.25.28.72.04.85.710.9-9.50.310.4-0.127.519.98.55.

5、018.3-9.9民生银行15.0417.3524.8220.867.314.97.7-1.76.6-4.6-11.5-10.52.51.115.720.07.025.019.215.329.415.88.8兴业银行28.8421.4821.0627.4631.922.315.4-0.9-9.7-14.9-15.9-13.7-4.31.712.921.120.845.56.116.5-1.65.421.6光大银行48.0327.4223.1627.9822.26.05.52.26.26.4-3.6-8.9-10.46.620.431.747.137.127.215.315.311.78.4华夏

6、银行15.656.3011.267.3324.626.412.219.715.318.89.3-1.412.21.1-2.810.426.942.629.030.2-6.218.826.7平安银行49.5440.0855.5331.1549.742.817.032.924.817.65.0-11.8-23.9-6.84.716.430.117.120.819.120.919.418.4北京银行40.0718.4919.1724.0519.916.718.26.85.314.67.28.1-3.4-1.46.115.939.930.320.113.72.810.1-3.5宁波银行42.1527.

7、5726.3534.797.136.029.019.624.016.7-0.43.915.7-4.418.228.920.324.817.218.924.732.812.5南京银行70.5268.0758.3931.2554.262.825.427.3-21.0-23.2-15.1-5.218.08.010.08.320.936.817.417.19.517.2-5.7江苏银行27.111.117.06.59.914.10.00.2-0.718.830.628.343.631.419.613.4贵阳银行33.020.862.156.836.430.322.73.217.3-3.5-7.27.2

8、6.916.137.56.624.227.3邮储银行-13.3-4.424.436.334.225.336.848.434.340.714.423.05.4-9.66.7-3.3四大行11.046.736.826.855.23.05.0-1.3-2.97.70.28.713.56.011.010.68.811.39.01.23.46.03.3股份行24.6723.0524.0128.3621.823.49.53.28.80.4-2.2-2.2-0.8-0.410.615.313.226.414.215.39.313.58.7城农商行47.0629.8629.5228.1525.532.022.

9、314.81.03.4-0.73.46.30.09.517.129.730.718.815.99.816.7-0.5上市银行14.9910.9511.8813.1611.09.46.80.31.15.0-0.94.87.43.510.912.711.816.410.76.55.48.55.0资料来源：万得资讯，公司公告，中金公司研究部单季净手续费收入4Q144Q154Q161Q172Q173Q174Q171Q182Q183Q184Q181Q192Q193Q194Q191Q202Q20图表 4: 宁波、南京、兴业、平安、华夏净手续费收入增速表现亮眼同比增速（） 工商银行17.91.9-3.1-5

10、.8-6.6-3.32.41.65.411.3-1.310.912.54.8-1.92.5-1.8建设银行2.20.55.41.01.71.8-7.8-2.26.07.69.813.48.317.36.85.52.9农业银行-10.712.211.7-11.9-23.4-28.9-17.0-8.219.219.56.924.97.11.28.26.6-2.2中国银行14.79.2-3.60.16.00.3-6.90.1-4.4-1.9-0.56.13.63.6-3.72.1-3.4交通银行2.414.83.94.7-2.117.825.9-3.93.69.2-1.011.27.011.0-6.

11、94.55.6招商银行39.7-19.237.8-6.0-10.327.326.31.515.16.4-8.11.36.817.36.215.22.0中信银行46.548.317.7-2.116.518.411.8-3.1-4.7-6.2-0.847.512.837.5-73.5-19.10.1浦发银行51.315.445.34.912.128.85.0-13.2-22.4-11.3-9.913.215.5-15.31.717.33.9兴业银行6.918.119.915.9-0.52.57.52.816.520.35.023.611.613.914.727.828.9光大银行48.65.714

12、.018.911.33.15.0-32.1-37.0-36.3n.a.24.718.213.1-76.95.517.3华夏银行1.7121.9-6.424.334.624.118.811.9-11.6-12.12.446.5-12.9-3.9-18.5-32.737.6平安银行50.635.8-40.80.6-9.0-4.1103.95.423.0-22.21.111.2-5.563.717.41.313.6北京银行-13.3139.312.831.38.97.7-26.6-24.0-20.2-18.830.14.5-17.6-30.5-43.2-17.0-8.6宁波银行68.663.525.

13、17.55.5-10.4-13.8-8.8-19.62.928.017.431.849.339.347.945.1南京银行29.833.56.5-42.1-34.342.468.815.718.917.9-27.88.820.615.65.59.233.3江苏银行13.7-1.9-18.4-5.2-13.52.013.1-7.726.934.03.123.8贵阳银行32.5-42.0-24.98.4-24.3-13.2-5.4-18.1-7.7-46.957.6-24.6邮储银行32.1-22.914.22.411.028.35.346.713.316.41.57.1四大行7.34.71.6-

14、4.1-5.3-6.9-6.0-1.75.68.73.213.28.67.32.04.1-0.9股份行37.519.810.70.71.011.914.1-4.7-0.5-5.216.718.97.615.1-23.54.59.9城农商行20.815.97.7-1.05.3-3.7-15.0-14.7-5.710.28.83.57.00.26.719.9上市银行16.111.35.4-1.7-2.61.73.4-3.32.52.59.015.08.010.5-10.44.34.1资料来源：万得资讯，公司公告，中金公司研究部图表 5: 兴业、招商、平安、浦发、交通、民生、中信、浦发、江苏 1H2

15、0 非息收入占比超过 35%（占总营业收入）非息收入占比2014 1Q151H15 1-3Q152015 1Q161H16 1-3Q162016 1Q171H17 1-3Q172017 1Q181H18 1-3Q182018 1Q191H19 1-3Q192019 1Q201H20工商银行22%24%25%25%24%30%29%27%26%27%25%24%23%25%23%22%21%27%24%22%22%25%24%建设银行23%25%28%25%24%31%37%33%31%33%32%29%27%27%30%27%26%33%31%30%28%36%32%农业银行18%22%21%

16、20%19%27%24%23%22%31%24%21%19%25%24%22%21%31%26%24%23%31%24%中国银行30%33%32%31%31%35%41%38%37%39%34%31%30%33%31%30%29%37%34%33%32%35%31%交通银行25%29%27%27%26%39%34%32%30%43%41%37%35%38%41%40%39%44%41%40%38%44%42%招商银行32%34%37%35%32%41%40%37%36%39%37%35%34%38%39%37%35%36%37%36%35%40%39%中信银行24%27%29%29%28%32

17、%32%31%31%34%35%36%36%39%39%37%32%36%39%39%32%38%36%浦发银行20%25%25%24%23%34%33%32%33%37%38%37%37%33%37%36%35%37%34%33%32%42%39%民生银行32%36%39%39%39%40%39%39%39%43%42%41%40%57%55%53%50%50%48%46%45%45%44%兴业银行23%21%24%22%22%28%27%29%28%37%36%35%37%38%38%39%40%48%45%44%43%47%45%光大银行26%30%29%29%29%30%31%31%3

18、1%36%34%34%34%37%34%32%29%28%26%25%23%27%24%华夏银行16%12%18%19%22%20%23%23%23%24%28%28%29%25%27%27%29%33%26%25%24%26%24%平安银行28%27%33%32%31%33%34%33%29%32%31%31%30%33%35%37%36%36%36%36%35%35%36%北京银行15%22%22%21%19%26%26%24%21%31%28%25%22%24%22%20%18%31%27%24%21%28%23%宁波银行13%15%16%18%20%27%28%28%28%25%30%

19、32%35%41%37%35%34%43%41%44%44%49%43%南京银行16%17%18%17%18%24%23%21%20%18%18%19%19%20%22%21%21%35%33%33%34%41%34%江苏银行12%13%14%15%21%22%20%19%20%19%19%18%23%26%27%28%53%49%46%43%41%36%贵阳银行9%10%10%10%11%17%14%16%17%11%11%12%13%8%12%12%12%18%18%18%18%24%19%邮储银行3%5%5%6%12%12%12%17%20%17%15%16%16%15%12%10%14

20、%16%15%13%15%16%四大行23%26%26%25%24%30%33%30%29%32%29%26%24%27%27%25%24%31%29%27%26%32%27%股份行26%28%31%30%29%34%34%33%32%36%36%35%35%39%39%38%36%39%37%37%35%39%37%城农商行15%20%19%19%19%26%26%24%22%26%26%25%25%27%25%24%23%35%32%31%31%38%32%上市银行24%27%27%26%26%32%33%31%30%34%31%29%28%31%31%30%28%34%32%31%29%

21、35%31%资料来源：万得资讯，公司公告，中金公司研究部图表 6: 上市银行 1H20 拨备覆盖率小幅下降，银行间存在分化，宁波、招商、南京、邮储银行拨备覆盖率最高，分别为506%、441%、401%、400%；此外，兴业、中信、平安银行拨备覆盖率季度环比上升较快，分别环比上升 16ppt、15ppt、15ppt 至 215%、176%、215%，资产质量改善亦值得关注拨备覆盖率(%)20141Q151H15 1-3Q1520151Q161H16 1-3Q1620161Q171H17 1-3Q1720171Q181H18 1-3Q1820181Q191H19 1-3Q1920191Q201H2

22、0工商银行206.9180.4163.4157.6156.3141.2143.0136.1136.7141.5145.8148.4154.1174.5173.2172.5175.8185.9192.0198.1199.3199.37194.59建设银行222.3207.2185.3179.0157.0151.7151.6148.8156.4159.5160.2162.9171.1189.5193.2195.2208.4214.2218.0218.3227.7230.27223.47农业银行286.5268.1239.0218.3189.4180.4177.7172.7173.4173.6181

23、.8194.3208.4238.8248.4254.9252.2263.9278.4281.3288.8289.9285.0中国银行187.6167.1157.4153.7153.3149.1155.1155.8162.8159.5152.5153.6159.2168.1164.8169.2182.0184.6177.5182.2182.9184.72186.46交通银行178.9172.9170.4165.3155.6151.2150.5150.3150.5150.3151.0151.1153.1165.9171.0171.1173.1173.5173.5174.2171.8154.1913

24、2.05招商银行233.4223.8204.2195.5179.0183.3189.1186.4180.0208.7224.7235.2262.1295.9316.1326.0358.2363.2394.1409.4426.8451.27440.81中信银行181.3184.0178.5178.4167.8166.0157.0154.9155.5151.5153.0161.0169.4187.8151.2161.0158.0169.9165.2174.8175.25160.76175.72浦发银行249.1245.5245.5248.7211.4220.9208.3200.1169.1166.

25、8154.2134.6132.4153.0146.5152.6154.9160.1156.5159.5133.7146.2127.8民生银行182.2180.6162.1161.6153.6152.1152.6154.4155.4155.7153.3155.3155.6172.2162.7161.7134.1137.8142.3145.7155.5155.9152.3兴业银行250.2227.3221.2189.6210.1203.3218.8224.7210.5215.2222.5220.4211.8209.1209.6206.3207.3206.3193.5197.9199.1199.02

26、15.0光大银行180.5181.4155.2164.8156.4158.6150.3154.1152.0157.6152.2154.0158.2179.1173.0172.7176.2178.7178.0179.1181.6182.22186.77华夏银行233.1226.6185.0187.3167.1168.7165.1170.0158.7167.7157.6159.8156.5159.1158.5159.7158.6157.5144.8148.1141.92155.87143.24平安银行200.9173.2183.0167.0165.9161.0160.8164.4155.4163.

27、3161.3152.1151.1172.7175.8169.1155.2170.6182.5186.2183.1200.4214.9北京银行324.2305.0307.0293.0278.4286.6280.0275.2256.1260.0257.8245.7265.6272.7260.5278.1217.5214.1212.5229.3224.7230.6220.0宁波银行285.2284.3281.8299.3308.7327.8343.8368.8351.4372.6398.5430.0493.3498.7499.3502.7521.8520.6522.5525.5524.08524.0

28、7506.02南京银行325.7343.0347.2377.4431.0447.3458.7459.8457.3449.4450.2459.0462.5465.5463.0442.8462.7415.4415.5415.5417.73422.62401.39江苏银行207.0192.1183.0182.9180.6180.9181.3186.2184.3184.5182.1185.0203.8210.8217.6225.1232.8238.8246.8贵阳银行400.4266.7240.0236.1235.2258.1251.5269.0269.7254.2262.7252.3266.1276

29、.2261.0267.0291.8248.8285.6邮储银行363.5298.2286.7293.4271.7279.8288.7312.2324.8353.2270.7 #N/A 346.8363.2396.1391.1389.5387.3400.1四大行228.0207.1187.8179.2166.1156.9157.9153.9157.3158.8161.0165.5173.2192.6194.5197.2203.6211.3215.3219.1223.57224.8220.9国有行223.8204.3186.5178.1165.3156.5157.3153.6156.8158.11

30、60.3164.3171.5190.4192.5195.0201.1208.1211.8215.2219.06218.3212.5股份行213.1206.8194.2189.2177.8179.1178.2178.2168.5174.9174.5172.3176.7193.7187.7190.8189.2195.2195.6201.1197.51202.2202.7城农商行316.7307.7309.4309.7308.1322.1322.8323.8305.6311.4314.2310.7332.3337.7328.8340.1296.9288.6286.7301.9299.92306.02

31、92.3上市银行222.7206.2189.8182.3170.2164.0164.7162.2162.1164.9166.6169.0175.7193.8193.5196.3199.4205.8208.4212.8214.08215.3211.4资料来源：万得资讯，公司公告，中金公司研究部图表 7: 上市银行 1H20 关注类贷款占比相较 19 年底下降 11bps关注类贷款占比（%）4Q141Q152Q153Q154Q151Q162Q163Q164Q161Q172Q173Q174Q171Q182Q183Q184Q181Q192Q193Q194Q191Q202Q20工商银行2.903.614

32、.364.914.473.903.953.232.922.712.712.41建设银行2.972.792.893.062.872.842.832.822.822.802.932.99农业银行3.844.134.204.173.883.623.273.102.742.432.242.09中国银行2.372.302.512.843.112.772.912.932.902.732.211.93交通银行2.683.243.113.173.073.022.892.932.602.452.322.161.78招商银行1.862.422.612.482.091.721.601.501.511.301.170

33、.99中信银行3.123.923.572.612.652.302.142.542.362.322.222.55浦发银行2.122.873.203.422.883.853.284.243.823.653.833.403.283.273.213.242.952.972.912.882.532.852.80兴业银行1.822.812.732.442.352.662.903.062.592.732.873.002.312.352.332.362.052.121.881.851.782.071.67光大银行3.234.314.394.253.783.322.972.352.412.302.212.19华

34、夏银行2.584.104.304.314.214.174.264.274.204.224.444.604.604.644.604.654.443.913.803.783.563.613.50平安银行3.614.154.464.304.154.314.344.174.114.124.143.893.703.503.413.072.732.582.482.392.011.931.86北京银行1.291.021.051.171.461.141.561.330.881.011.251.27宁波银行1.771.751.691.651.771.511.661.411.330.960.770.720.680

35、.630.510.560.550.640.630.570.740.740.59南京银行2.242.152.302.251.922.072.132.161.931.861.821.701.641.551.441.431.421.441.311.371.211.491.33江苏银行2.183.122.963.012.952.962.862.542.322.112.052.252.262.342.031.931.891.82贵阳银行1.914.014.633.613.954.213.653.123.192.802.872.772.592.683.082.782.762.892.73邮储银行2.251

36、.501.571.250.810.570.680.640.630.670.660.53四大行3.003.223.533.803.623.313.273.032.852.672.552.38股份行2.433.443.343.333.213.082.892.802.582.422.202.25城商行1.541.381.361.461.531.221.411.200.941.001.131.13上市银行2.813.243.413.583.433.173.112.892.702.542.392.28资料来源：万得资讯，公司公告，中金公司研究部图表 8: 上市银行 1H20 末逾期贷款占比较 2019

37、年底下降 3bps逾期贷款占比（%）20141Q151H151-3Q1520151Q161H161-3Q1620161Q171H171-3Q1720171Q181H181-3Q1820181Q191H191-3Q1920191Q201H20工商银行1.912.482.792.952.652.232.011.811.751.681.601.25建设银行1.411.991.651.991.511.491.291.421.281.431.151.14农业银行2.062.743.143.232.832.612.091.831.701.501.371.33招商银行2.103.132.852.712.14

38、2.021.741.641.581.561.411.35中信银行3.473.592.963.603.263.132.862.722.682.632.603.11浦发银行1.912.772.642.952.982.912.802.752.582.432.212.53兴业银行2.253.372.743.082.152.081.592.122.022.001.861.92光大银行3.474.114.093.512.872.532.462.292.362.602.272.22华夏银行2.434.713.965.164.724.823.994.443.422.522.201.88平安银行4.495.10

39、4.724.474.114.333.543.192.602.502.092.28北京银行1.321.481.511.652.221.731.912.071.972.011.852.04宁波银行1.931.501.731.071.150.970.780.840.890.920.860.90南京银行1.431.591.351.711.701.351.301.291.321.411.281.24江苏银行2.552.692.712.281.941.861.541.591.701.481.51贵阳银行2.236.336.848.447.834.073.774.013.952.934.494.426.00

40、四大行1.722.302.382.522.282.061.801.851.641.521.351.26股份行2.743.653.323.593.052.972.642.642.392.282.062.16城农商行1.461.501.521.551.891.511.561.681.611.661.521.60上市银行2.002.662.642.782.492.302.052.061.861.751.581.55资料来源：万得资讯，公司公告，中金公司研究部图表 9: 大行 A/H 2020E 股息率在 4.9/7.1%，显著超出十年期国债收益率的 3.1%8.0%7.0%6.0%5.0%4.5%4

41、.0%3.5%3.0%2.5%4.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%2.0%1.5%1.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%A股四大行股息率-十年期国债收益率（右）A股四大行股息率（左）十年期国债收益率（左）-0.5%资料来源：万得资讯，公司公告，中金公司研究部图表 10: 大行 A/H 2020E 股息率在 4.9/7.1%，显著超出十年期国债收益率的 3.1%9.0%6.0%8.0%7.0%5.0%6.0%4.0%5.0%4.0%3.0%3.0%2.0%2.0%1.0%1.0%0.0%H股四大行股息率-十年期国债收益率（右）H股四大行股息率（左)十年期国债收益率（左）0.0%资料来源：万得资讯，公司公告

42、，中金公司研究部图表 11: 银行分红率保持原有水平概率较高，2020 年银行经营能力显著好于 2015/16 年，表现为更稳健的贷款敞口(%) 工商银行现金分红比例454038.935302534.035.035.033.030.030.030.030.030.0201510502010201120122013201420152016201720182019资料来源：万得资讯，中金公司研究部图表 12: A 股银行板块 P/B 走势图表 13: H 股银行板块 P/B 走势1.201.101.000.900.800.700.600.500.820.710.700.491.000.900.800.700.600.500.40A-share forward P/B5 year averageH-share forward P/B5 year average 资料来源：万得资讯，中金公司研究部资料来源：万得资讯，中金公司研究部图表 14: A 股银行业估值处于历史以及市场整体的底部，具有配置吸引力80(X)A股行业前向市盈率区间（06年至今）当前值 中值70历史75分位605040302010历史最低值0、资料来源：万得资讯，朝阳永续，中金公司研究部收盘价市净率净资产收益率（%）股息率（%）公司名称财报货币交易货币09-282019A2020E2021E2019A2020E2