美国保险业AIFA会议总结：财险好于寿险保险经纪并购成为焦点

1、COREUS InsuranceAIFA Recap: P&C Outshines Life; Insurance Broker M&A in FocusThetonefromtheAIFAinsuranceconferencewasmoreconstructiveforP&Cinsurers thanLifebasedinachallengingmacroeconomicenvironment.Theupbeatoutlook fromP&CinsurersreflectsmodestlyimprovingcommercialP&Cpricingfollowing record-levelg

2、lobalinsuredcatastrophelossesin2017-18.P&Cmarketconditionsare currentlystablealthoughonthecuspoftighteningthebythemostinfiveyears,inour view. Although property catastrophe reinsurance rates were flat in January 19,this situationmaymodestlytightenastheyearprogresses.Meanwhile,personallines insurersco

3、ntinuetogeneratefavorableunderwritingresultsandthefocusappearsto beshiftingtogrowth.LifeInsuranceearnings(aswellasvaluations)areunlikelytorise muchfurtherinachallengedmacroenvironment,althoughbellwetherlifeinsurer valuationsremaincompressedwithamedianP/Eof7x.Lifeinsurersfacechallenges includingasub-

4、3%yieldon10-yearUSTreasuries,aflatyieldcurve,andlingering concernsregardinglegacylong-termcareexposure.P&Ccompany-specifictakeaways:AIGsoundedincreasinglyconfidentingeneratinga P&CunderwritingprofitinFY19includingin1Q.TRVhassignificantlyimprovedINDUSTRY UPDATEU.S. Insurance/Life NEUTRAL UnchangedU.S

5、.Insurance/Non-LifeNEUTRALUnchangedU.S. Insurance/Life Jay Gelb, CFA+1 212 526 1561 HYPERLINK mailto:jay.gelb jay.gelb BCI,USSueLee+1 212 526 8190 HYPERLINK mailto:sue.lee sue.lee BCI, USAndrew Karp+1 212 526 9015EquityResearch5March2019profitabilityinitspersonalautobusinessandexpectsgrowthtoresume.

6、ALL appeared positiveongrowthandmarginsinautoinsurance.HIG appearedupbeataboutthe prospectsofitsannouncedacquisitionofNavigators;sharebuybacksarelikelytobe modestin19withmoretocomein20.ACGLremainsupbeatonmortgageinsurance; Archexpectsonlyamodestrateuptickformid-yearpropertyreinsurancerenewals. Evere

7、st Re and RNR appear optimistic mid-year reinsurance pricing could improve. BRO appearsconfidentitcangeneratelow-to-midsinglepercentageorganicrevenue growthand30%+adjustedEBITDACmargin(ex-Hays).Lifeinsurercompany-specifictakeaways:PRUsaidpensionrisktransferdealstypically generatebetweenhigh-single-d

8、igittolow-double-digitROEswhichissomewhatlower thanweexpected.METsincomingCEOhassaidhewouldfocusedonaccelerating revenuegrowth,optimizingtheportfolioofbusinessandproducts,andimproving expenses.AFL appearsupbeatonitspartnershipwithJapanPostincludingitsrecently announcedequitystakeinthecompany.LNCnowa

9、ppearsfocusedonorganicgrowth andcouldexploredivestingotherlegacyblocksoflifeandannuitybusinesswith potentialproceedsbeingdeployedinmorebuybacks.UNM appearscomfortablewith trendsinitslegacylong-termcareunitfollowingitsreservechargein2018.PFG soundedupbeatonlong-termprospectsacrossitsbusinessesdespite

10、near-term headwinds.VOYA appearsontracktogenerate10%+annualEPSgrowthin2019-21, withpotentialupside.ATHappearedinterestedinexpandingpensionrisktransferdeals aswellas,inourview,potentiallycreatingasidecarvehicletodeployinblock transactions.EQHappearsontracktoachieveits2020targetsincludingamid-teens RO

11、E.BHFappearstobefocusedonfindingitsnextCFOfromoutsidethecompany. HYPERLINK mailto:andrew.karp andrew.karp BCI, USCapitalInc.oneofdoesandseekstodoinitsresearchAsabeawarethatthe mayhaveaofthattheofconsiderthisasonlyafactorinmakingtheirPLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGIN

12、NING ON PAGE 26.PotentialAON-WLTWCombinationCouldMakeSenseAONisconsideringatransformationaltakeoverbidforWLTW,accordingtoamediareport HYPERLINK /3GhBG1Hnfbmhzu3jS4xAFH97Vc?u=https%3A%2F%2F%2Fnews%2Farticles%2F2019-03-05%2Faon-is-said-to-consider-offer-for-rival-willis-towers-watson (AonConsidersOffe

13、rforRivalWillisTowersWatson,Bloomberg,3/5/19).Accordingtothe article,thecompanieshaveheldpreliminarytalks.Ifannouncedandcompleted,itwouldbe expectedtoresultinbyfarthelargestglobalcommercialP&Cinsuranceandreinsurance broker.Thecompanieshavenotcommentedonthemediaspeculation.Strategically,webelievethis

14、potentialtransactioncouldmakesensebasedonexpanding scalewithmeaningfulexpensesynergyopportunities.We would expect Aons CEO to be the long-term leader of the potentially combined companysinceWLTWCEOJohnHaleyhasalreadyannouncedhisplantoretireasof1 January2021.We believe news of the potential deal was

15、not anticipated by the investor community.Ifthisdealiscompleted,wewouldviewthelargecommercialinsurancebrokermarket shrinkingfromthreemajorcompaniestotwo.Itwouldalsobeexpectedtoshiftevenmore marketpowertothebrokersandawayfrominsurers.Intermsoflaterals,wewouldanticipatethenextlargestpubliclytradedinsu

16、rancebrokers (AJG,BRO)wouldnotbepressuredtoshifttheirstrategiesbasedontheirfocusonorganic growthopportunitiessupplementedbyastrongpipelineofbolt-onacquisitions.ThepotentialtakeoutpriceofWLTWandcash/stockmixarenotcurrentlyknown,although wewouldexpectAonwouldneedtopayshareholdersasignificantcontrolpre

17、mium.Aons potentialfinancingofsuchadealwouldlikelybeamixofdebtandsharesbasedonthe expectedlargesizeofthetransaction,inourview.Ourexpectationisthatpotentialexpensesynergieswouldlikelybeamajorelementof minimizingEPSdilutiontoAONshareholders.Wewouldexpectsubstantialscrutinyby globalregulatorsbasedonAon

18、andWillisssignificantmarketshareininsuranceand reinsurancebrokerage.Property/Casualty InsuranceTakeawaysFollowingisarecaponthemostrelevanttakeawaysfortheP&CinsurersfromtheAIFA Insuranceconference.State of P&C Insurance AIG CFO Mark Lyons, Alleghany President & CEO Weston HicksAIGisreviewingP&Cportfo

19、liocomposition,competitivepositioning,andrateadequacy. Managementappearsfocusedonchangingthegrossunderwritingstrategyincluding reducingvolatility.Thecompanybelievesithasmadeprogressinareaswherepricing, termsandconditions,andvolatilityneededthemostattention,andbelievesitiscloseto fixingthesebusinessl

20、ines.Altogether,thecompanybelievesitsrecoveryprocessisnow approachingthree-quarterscompletion.AIGisachievingrateincreasesinprimaryD&O insurance.AsAIGpushesforhigherrates,ithopescompetitorswillfollow.Commercial property,excessliability,andcommercialautowerenotedasP&Clinesthatrequire further rateincre

21、ases.AIGviewstheintegrationoftheValidusacquisitionasgoingsmoothly.Validusactedas aninternalconsultanttoAIGonitglobalpropertycatastrophereinsuranceprograms.PanelistsagreedthattherehadnotbeenamajorchangeintheP&Ccyclesincetheearly 2000s. Although there have been smaller cycles, limited periods of P&C m

22、arkettightnessisviewedasastructuralchange.Certainexcesscasualtylineswerenotedas stillbeingmoderatelycyclical.Panelistsnotedthatcasualtyinsurancelinestypicallyhaveathree-yeardelaybetween whenlosscostsbegintoincreaseandpricesareraisedtofullyaccountforhigherclaims costs.M&AinglobalP&Cinsuranceisexpecte

23、dtocontinue.AIGnotedthatTokioMarinehas astrongbalancesheetandcouldseekglobalacquisitionstoadddiversificationinalow interestrateenvironment.AlleghanysaidthatitfindsM&Ahardtojustifywithrecent dealsannouncedinthe1.5x-2xbookvaluerangeforcompaniesgeneratingROEsinthe 8%-10%range;asaresult,thecompanyhasnot

24、participatedinthemostrecentwave of industryconsolidation.Panelistsbelievethattherewillbeincreasinginterestandopportunitiesforrun-off liabilitytransactions.AlternativeP&Ccapitalisviewedasbeingresilientandunlikelytogoawayinthenear- term.Short-tailpropertyinsuranceriskappearstobewellsuitedforthiscapita

25、l,but otherlinesofbusinessaredifficultbecauseittakeslongerforultimatelossestoemerge. Despitethissituation,oursenseissomere/insurersaretryingtoexpandalternative capitalintocasualtylines.GlobalReinsuranceAxisReCEOSteveArora,EverestReCEODominicAddesso,and RenaissanceReSVP&TreasurerAdityaDuttEverest Re

26、and Axis Re characterized the 1/1/19 reinsurance renewal seasonas disappointingfollowinganotheryearoflargecatastrophelossesfortheindustry.There was increased demand for capacity with the market was able to meet despite dislocationintheretrocessionalreinsurancemarket.Loss-affectedprimaryinsurance acc

27、ountssawdouble-digitpercentagerateincreases,althoughnon-lossaffected accountsbenefitedfromflatrates.Duringthe1/1renewals,Everestdeployedless capitalincatastrophelinesandlowereditsprobablemaximumloss(PML)expectations.TheupcomingpropertycatastropherenewalsinJapan(April1)andFlorida(June1)are expectedto

28、resultinsomeratehardeningfollowinglargecatastropheevents(Axis expectsdouble-digitpercentagerateincreases),althoughweviewthisoutlookas perhapsoverlyoptimistic.DeterminingfactorsespeciallyintheFloridamarketwilllikely behowmuchcapacityalternativecapitalprovidersareabletodeployfollowingtwo consecutiveye

29、arsoflossesalongwithtrappedcapital.Thereisalsothepotentialfor Florida-focused homeowners insurers to require additional capacity following large lossesinboth2017and2018.Lessons learned by reinsurers following a record-level two-year period of global catastrophelossesin2017-18includeCaliforniawildfir

30、erisknotbeingpropertypriced or modeled, underestimating assignment of benefits and loss adjustment expenses following Florida hurricanes, not being over-reliant on catastrophe models, and that P&Cmarketchangingeventsneedtobebothlargeandhavingunexpectedcomplexity (suchasCaliforniawildfiresorTyphoonJe

31、bi).Alternative Capital RenaissanceRe SVP & Treasurer Aditya Dutt, Aon Global Head of StrategicGrowth&DevelopmentBryonEhrhart,NephilaCapitalCFOLauraTaylor,and FloridaPeninsulaInsuranceCompanyCEORogerDesjardonPanelistsagreedthatalternativereinsurancecapitalhadearneditsplaceintheindustry andisheretost

32、ay.Thelinesbetweentraditionalandalternativereinsurancecapitalhaveblurredbasedonseveralofthetopalternativecapitalprovidersbeingaffiliated withatraditionalreinsurerinsomeform(suchasMarkelsacquisitionofNephila,and AIGs purchase of Validus). Traditional reinsurers that do not currently manage alternativ

33、ecapitalareexpectedtodosointhefuture.AccordingtoAON,between$6.5bn-$9bnofalternativereinsurancecapitalwaslostin 2018,butisexpectedtobereplacedby$10bn-$13bnofnewcapitalbyJune1(Florida) renewals.Asaresult,rateincreasesforJune1renewalsareexpectedtobemanageable. Thisnewcapitalisexpectedtobemorecautiousin

34、thepastbasedontwoyearsoflarge industryinsuredcatastrophelosses.Panelistsagreedthatinvestorsarenowdoingmore duediligencebeforeplacingbusinesswithalternativecapitalmanagerswhichisviewed asapositivedevelopment.RNRnotedthatthereisroughly$100bnofalternativecapitalcommittedtopropertycat reinsurance. There

35、 may be an opportunity in the future for non-cat risks to be transferredtoalternativecapitalproviders.Insomeinstances,alternativecapitalprovidersarenowbeingviewedasmorecreative thantraditionalreinsurersinfillingcoveragegapsfortheirclients.InsurTech ProgressiveData&AnalyticsBusinessLeaderPawanDivakar

36、la,LemonadeCFO TimBixby,LadderLifeCEOJamieHale,KildareConsultingPresidentTimMcCarthyProgressiveremainsfocusedonusingdataanalyticstoimproveitsunderwritingresults aswellasthecustomerexperience.Thecompanyappearsopentobuildingnew capabilitiesin-houseaswellaspartneringwithinsurtechcompanies.Thecompany so

37、undedupbeatonnewtechnologiessuchasmachinelearning,clouddatastorage,and open-sourceintermsofthevaluetheycanoffertoinsurers.PGRbelievesitsexperienceinautoinsuranceintermsofpricinganduserexperienceare transferrable to its homeowners insurance product as it seeks to expand in homeownersaswellasbundlethe

38、seproducts.Progressivestelematicsplatformnowmeasuresdistracteddrivingincertainstates,and thecompanyviewsitashighlypredictivedata.Lemonade(atech-enabledinsurer)pays25%ofitsclaimswithin3seconds,andits medianpaytimeis24hours.Thecompanybelievesitdoesnothavetosacrificegrowth formargin(orviceversa)because

39、thedataitcollectsduringitshighgrowthphaseis expectedtoultimatelyimproveitsunderwriting.Lemonadeisincreasingitsappetitefor homeownersbusiness(vs.renters).Thecompanybelievesthatoverthenextdecadea digital-firstinsurerwilllikelybecomeamajorindustryplayerasasupplementtomore traditionalprovider.P&C Compan

40、y Specific TakeawaysAIG - CFO Mark Lyons and Head of Investor Relations Elizabeth WernerCFOMarkLyonsappearedhighlyconfidentthatAIGshoulddeliveraP&Cunderwriting profitin19aswellasforthefirstquarter.Moreover,heanticipatestheq/qcomparison in19shouldshowimprovementaswell.Thisresultisexpectedtobeachieved

41、by reducing large coverage limits, reducing net exposures after reinsurance protection, limitingmulti-yearinsurancedeals,andreducingexpenses.Mr.LyonssaidthatChubbwasthetypeofP&CcompanyAIGcouldaspiretointermsof underwritingperformance.AIGexpectsovertimetoimproveitsP&Cexpenseratioaswellascorporateexpe

42、nsesin both19andbeyond.Managementsoundedconfidentinitsplantoachievea10%ROEgoal(ex-DTA/AOCI) by2021drivenbyachangingbusinessmix,exitingunderperformingbusinesslines,and improvingperformanceinP&Clinesalreadygeneratinganunderwritingprofit.TheLegacyP&Cunitsisexpectedbythecompanytogeneratea2-3%ROEwhichcou

43、ld beimprovedbyshrinkingtheallocatedequitybasedaswellasearnings.ManagementbelievesAIGsP&Creservingtrendshavestabilized.Thecompanys adversereservedevelopmentin4Q18wasprimarilydrivenbyUSfinanciallines includingdirectorsandofficers(D&O)liabilityreflectinganinfluxofclassactionclaims. Mr.Lyonsviewsthesei

44、ssuesasbeinglargelyisolatedtothe2016/17accidentyearsand believesthereshouldbenomoreadversedevelopmentin2019andbeyond.He appearedbracedforalargerreservechargethanwasultimatelyrequiredduringthe 2018reservereviewprocess.Withregardtothecompanysadversereservedevelopmentcover(ADC)withBerkshire Hathaway,we

45、wouldnowexpectAIGtofinishitspaymentunderitsretentionin2020, whichmeansBerkshirewouldhavehadlessthanfouryears(likelylessthanBerkshire initiallyanticipated)toinvestits$10bnpremiumbeforepayingclaims.AsofYE18,AIG hadnearly$6.1bnofremaininglimitsstillavailableundertheADC.Thecompanys29%debt-to-capitalrati

46、oshouldimproveovertimedrivenbyimproving earningsaswellasmaturingdebt.Wesensedthatratingagencieswerehighlyunlikely lowertheirviewsonthecompanysfinancialstrengthordebtratings.Travelers-EVPandPresidentofPersonalInsuranceMichaelKleinandSVPofInvestor Relations AbbeGoldsteinThe focus of the meeting was on

47、 TRVs personal lines insurance business. The companyspersonalautobusinessisnowgeneratingtargetedreturns,whichwebelieve meansitcouldfocusonreturningtogrowthaslongasmarginscanbemaintained.The companyplanstomoderateitsrateincreasesin2019althoughratechangeisstill expectedtobepositive.In2019,underwriting

48、resultsareexpectedtobebroadly consistentwith2018,includingslightlybetterresultsin1H19onay/ybasis,while2H19 resultswilllikelybeslightlyweakery/y.StateFarm(largestUSpersonallinesinsurer)hasfiledforautoinsuranceratedecreases overthepast6monthsalthoughTRVviewsthisasanoutlier,whilemostauto insurancepeers

49、arestilltakingmodestrateincreases.Travelersiscautiouslyoptimisticaboutautomatedemergencyvehiclebrakingandthe positiveimpactitcanhaveonaccidentfrequency.Notably,automanufacturershave agreedtomakethisastandardfeatureacrossalmostallmodelsby2022.Initshomeownersinsurancebusiness,Travelersisraisingratesin

50、cludinginloss- impactedstatesincludingColorado(+15ppts)andCalifornia(+6.9pptswithpotentialfor anadditional6.9ppts)andTexas.Notably,thecompanyviewsitsongoingrolloutof QuantumHome2.0asanadditionalopportunitytoensurerateadequacyasit introducesthatproductintonewstates.TRVhasseenelevatednon-weatherlosses

51、inhomeownersinrecentquarterswhich appeartobelargelywater-damagerelatedalthoughtherootcauseremainsunclear. Managementisrespondingtothiselevatedclaimsactivitybyraisingrates.SmallcommercialP&Cremainsacompetitivemarket.Travelersisfocusedonexpanding itsSimplyBusinessplatformbothintheUKandUS.Travelersappe

52、arswellpositionedtodeliverstrongresultsin2019basedonitsstrong franchise,persistenttop-linegrowth,stableunderlyingmargins,andsustainedshare buybacks.Still,webelievethecompanyfaceschallengesinachievingitslong-termmid- teensoperatingROEtargetinthecurrentinterestrateenvironment(10.7%ROEinFY18 includinge

53、levatedcatastrophelosses).WeexpectTRVtogenerateanROE(ex-AOCI)of 12% in2019-20.TravelersrobustcapitalmanagementstrategyhassetahighbarfortherestoftheP&C insuranceindustry,inourview.Basedonourprojections,thecompanycouldreturn$2.6bnofcapital(buybacks+dividends)toshareholdersinboth2019/20whichwe estimate

54、wouldbeover90%ofnormalizedannualearnings.Allstate - Head of Investor Relations John GriekOther major auto insurers have been generating faster PIF growth than Allstate includingPGR(mid-teensPIFgrowth)andGEICO(low-to-midsingledigits).However, oursenseisthismarketshareshiftmaybecomemorebalancednowthat

55、Allstateisnow focusedonareturntogrowth(andGEICOsPIFgrowthappearstobeslowing).The companydescribedthecompetitiveenvironmentasrational.Allstates2019underlyingcombinedratioguidanceis86%-88%,whichweviewas achievable.Wecurrentlyanticipateanunderlyingcombinedratioof87.1%inFY19.Our senseisthecompanyexpects

56、long-termtrendsinautoclaimsfrequencytodecline (favorableformargins)basedonadvancesinautotechnology.However,autophysical damage claims severity has dramatically increased due to increasing levels of technologyincludedinvehicles.Allstatehasgeneratedrobustunderlyingresultsdespiteelevatedcatastropheloss

57、esin both2017and2018.Notably,thecompanyhasreduceditspresenceintheCalifornia homeownersinsurancemarketbyroughlyhalfoverthelast10yearsdueinpartto wildfireriskandoursenseisthecompanywillfurtherreduceitspresencefollowingtwo straightyearsofsubstantialindustrywildfireinsuredlosses.Thecompanybelievesits na

58、tionwidereinsuranceprogramperformedwellin2018.OursenseisthecompanyisinterestedinenteringthesmallcommercialP&Cmarket andappearsopenanacquisitiontogainthatcapability.ThecompanyhasstartedtakingrateincreasesinitsAllstate-brandhomeowners businessbasedonelevatednon-catweatherlossactivityin2018.Allstatevie

59、wsmodest rateincreasesasnotbeingapotentialheadwindtogrowthofitsbundledauto&home insuranceproduct.Allstateishighlyfocusedonenhancingitstelematicscapabilitiesandviewstelematics as the future of pricing auto insurance. The company does not currently include distracteddrivinginitstelematicsbutviewsitasa

60、goodopportunity.Longerterm, Allstateviewsusage-basedinsuranceasawaytogrowmorequicklywithoutsacrificing margins.Asapointofreference,itsconnectedcarstrategicplatform(Arity),currently has1.5millionAllstateconnectedcustomersandhascollecteddataonover85bnmiles driven(adding10bnmilesdrivenpermonth).The Har