2022年国内投资策略展望尘埃落定后会是更好的一年瑞信研究报告

1、3 January 2022 EquityResearch China Market StrategyOutlook 2022: A better year when the dust settlesStrategy | StrategyFigure 1: New sector weighting of CS China model portfolioSource: Refinitiv, Credit SuisseestimatesMacro economy set to bottom out. Following a V-shaped recovery in 2020, Chinas gro

2、wth lost momentum since 3Q21 due to resurging COVID, summer flooding, unexpected power cuts and property tightening. We expect to see moderate recovery in 2H22, after a still tough 1H22. We expect China to speed up fiscal expenditure, carry out a constructive monetarypolicyandadjusttheimplementation

3、paceforChinaslong-termdevelopment goals such as common prosperity and carbon neutrality. On-the-ground checks suggest a mixed outlook. According to the CS CQi teams industry and consumer surveys, property sales managers confirmed the moderate easing; material producers are still cautious on demand o

4、utlook and expect the high power tariffs to sustain for longer; private SME manufacturers are cautious about the year while service providersaremoreoptimistic.2022 to be a better year for stocks after correction. China and Hong Kong equity markets experienced remarkable corrections in 2021, with dra

5、matic sector rotation. Sixteen out of 22 sectors declined, led by consumer services, Macau, software, insurance and real estate. Only 36% of sectors managed to achieve more positive monthly returns than negative in 2021, in sharp contrast to 64% in 2020. Downward revision of corporate earningswasals

6、onothelpful.However,thecentralgovernmentisswiftlytakingactionto stabilisetheeconomy,andfine-tuningmacroandindustrypoliciesaccordingly,whichsends apositivepolicysignal.WeexpectChinasequitymarketissettorecover,givenpositive policydirection,lowinvestorexpectation,andcheapvaluation,despiteanear-termslow

7、ing economy. Our new index targets for MSCI China/HSI/CSI300 are 91/26,200/5,760, offering 11.7%/13.4%/17.0% upsides respectively.Focus on bottom up. We continue to expect multi-year secular themes to play out in 2022 but take a more bottom-up approach in sector selection, given lack of clear direct

8、ion of style and sector rotation. Our top 5 sector-relative weightings are industrials (+4.2%), IT (+1.6%), materials (+1.5%), utilities (+1.0%) and energy (+0.8%), versus big under- weights in consumer discretionary (-3.2%), communication services (-2.9%) and financials (-2.8%). We had the largest

9、increases in real estate (+3.0%), healthcare (+2.6%), and consumerdiscretionary(+1.8%)andtrimmedourbigoverweightinginenergy.Research AnalystsEdmond Huang852 2101 6701 edmond.huangContributing KennethFong CharlesZhou BinWang KynaWong YangHuang HoraceTse JianpingChen Hu ShenGaryZhou ChaolienTseng LokK

10、anChan IrisZheng JasmineWang Ashley Jason LiuPeter CliveCheung TingWang TimothyChau FrankZheng JocelynZhang VeronicaSong HarrietLiu SummerWang SabrinaShao DanielCui NathanChen LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusiness with companies covered i

11、n its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.消费行业报告文档资料22.0%21.2%6.0%6.4%5.2%5.4%3.8% 3.9%3 January 2022Focu

12、s chartsFigure 2: Major indicators two-year CAGRsfrom 11M 2019 to 11M 2021Figure 3: China has a higher degree of tolerance towards macro leverage30%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%11M201711M201811M201911M202011M2021Real Estate FAIExportIndustrial productionSource: NBS, Credit Suisse estimatesSource: BIS, PBoC, C

13、redit Suisse estimatesFigure 4: RRRlarge vs small and medium financial institutionsFigure 5: Performance of NASDAQ100 & ChiNext Index diverged from HSTech & NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index240 220 200 180 160 140 120 10080Hang Seng TechNasdaq 100Source: Wind, PBoC, Credit Suisse estimatesNote: Rebas

14、ed to 03-Jan-2020, data updated to 17-Dec-2021. service;Figure 6: Number of months posting gains/losses by sectorFigure 7: 2021 YTD revision of 2021E EPS and 2022E EPS20202021No.of monthswith gainsNo.ofmonthswith losses RatioNo.of monthswith gainsNo.ofmonths withlossesRatioConsumer Discretionary840.

15、67480.33Consumer Staples1020.83750.58Energy480.33840.67Financials660.50660.50Health Care930.75570.42Industrials750.58930.75Information Technology1020.83660.50Materials750.58660.50Real Estate570.42480.33Communication Services750.58480.33Utilities570.42840.67MSCI China840.67480.33Hit Rate64%36%Note: H

16、it rate calculated as the number of sectors posting more than 6 months ofgains divided by the number of totalsectors. Source:Refinitiv,CreditSuisseNote: Data as of 17-Dec-2021. Source:Refinitiv,CreditSuisseChina MarketStrategy2消费行业报告文档资料3 January 2022A better year when the dust settlesMacro economy

17、set to bottom outChinaseconomyhasexhibitedanunevennormalisationpathfromthepandemic.Followinga V-shaped recovery in 2020, Chinas growth lost momentum since 3Q21 due to resurging COVID, summer flooding, unexpected power cuts and unprecedented property tightening. We expect to see moderate recovery in

18、2H22, after a still tough 1H22. We expect China to speed up the fiscal expenditure and carry out constructive monetary policy support. For strategies that willhaveaprofoundimpactonChinaslong-termdevelopment,suchascommonprosperityand carbon neutrality, we expect an adjustment in the pace of implement

19、ation.Our on-the-ground checks for 2022 outlookThe CS CQi team conducted industry and consumer surveys to better understand on-the- ground views for the economic and business outlook for the year. According to the surveys, property sales managers confirmed moderate easing as evidenced by the slight

20、decline of mortgage rates and a shortened mortgage-processing time. Material producers are still cautious on demand outlook and expect high power tariffs may last longer than earlier expected. Private SME manufacturers are cautious about the year while service providers are moreoptimistic.Expect a b

21、etter year after correctionMajor China and Hong Kong equity indices experienced remarkable corrections in 2021 and underperformed other major global indices, dragged by a weakening economy,intensified regulatory tightening, resurging COVID cases and high PPI inflation. 2021 was also a year of dramat

22、ic sector rotation. Old-economy sectors such as energy, capital goods, utilities, and materials outperformed in 2021. Out of 22 sectors, 16 declined, led by consumer services, Macau, software, insurance, and real estate. Only 36% of sectors managed to achieve more positive monthly returns than negat

23、ive in 2021, in sharp contrast to 64% in 2020, making sectorselectionmoredifficult.Downwardrevisionincorporateearningswasalsonothelpful. However, China equities valuation has retreated to a reasonable level consequently. More importantly, the central government has been swiftly taking actions to sta

24、bilise theeconomy, and fine-tuning macro and industry policies accordingly, as evidenced by what happened at the recentCentralEconomicWorkConference(CEWC).Thissendsapositivepolicysignalto investors that the government would likely strike a fine balance between long-term strategic goals and the near-

25、term impact to economy and employment. We expect Chinas equity market issettorecover,givenpositivepolicydirection,lowinvestorexpectation,andcheapvaluation, despite a near-term slowing economy. Our new index targets for MSCI China/HSI/CSI300 are 91/26,200/5,760, offering 11.7%/13.4%/17.0% upsides. We

26、 raise our CSI300 target from 5,600to5,760givenimprovingliquidityandresilientearningsgrowth,butfurtherlowerMSCI China/HSI index targets from 115/30,000 to 91/26,200, to reflect earnings pressure and Focus on bottom upWecontinuetoexpectmulti-yearsecularthemestoplayoutin2022,buttakeamorebottom-up appr

27、oachinsectorselection,givenlackofcleardirectionofstyleandsectorrotation.Ourtop5 (+1.5%),utilities(+1.0%)andenergy(+0.8%),comparedwithbigunderweightsinconsumer discretionary(-3.2%),communicationservices(-2.9%)andfinancials(-2.8%).Wehadthelargest increases in real estate (+3.0%), healthcare (+2.6%) an

28、d consumer discretionary (+1.8%) and in China MarketStrategyWe expect to see moderate recovery in 2H22, after a still tough 1H22On-the-ground-checks for 2022 outlook suggested mixed outlookChinas equity market is set to recover, given positive policy direction, low investor expectation, and cheap va

29、luationTop 5 sector-relative weightings are industrials, IT, materials, utilities and energy3消费行业报告文档资料Divyield(%)6.65.76.05.35.24.34.54.03.93.73.63.53.42.93.32.82.92.61.71.61.61.41.41.31.31.21.21.11.00.91.00.90.80.70.70.70.70.60.60.50.50.420.221.518.420.221.620.17.99.24.08.01.94.012.712.819.018.310

30、.612.73.07.416.716.611.111.615.111.711.511.810.811.013.413.013.014.04.14.813.113.410.19.011.010.932.926.432.626.324.121.556.943.898.546.1192.686.926.522.817.215.327.620.654.821.19.78.612.811.38.59.910.79.59.18.27.46.96.15.116.814.05.14.55.55.84.44.135.924.66.623.9107.211.970.029.9105.0113.8121.83.81

31、6.353.912.1-19.134.1-16.4159.767.412.75.813.2337.7-14.515.312.828.811.020.57.9-2.320.023.020.02.613.1118.8-5.59.97.81.21.61.51.80.70.80.70.70.70.90.30.50.40.51.11.20.00.10.70.93.43.83.03.52.02.22.32.73.03.33.73.95.76.23.74.36.57.39.58.76.87.43 January 2022Figure 8: Valuation heat map for MSCI China

32、sub-indicesDurables & ApparelConsumer StaplesSemiconductors & Semiconductor EquipmentHealthCareAutomobiles & ComponentsSoftware & ServicesMedia & EntertainmentTechnology Hardware & Equipment RetailingConsumerServices aterials Transportation CapitalGoods Diversified FinancialsCommercial & Professiona

33、l Services InsuranceTelecommunicationServices Real EstateEnergy Banks Note: data as of 22-Dec-2021. Source:Refinitiv,CreditSuisseFigure 9: EPS revision by sector within CS covered universe%20212022150 103.510050054.1 46.311.35.65.53.02.62.30.9-50-100-150-2.1-3.9-6.1 -12.0 -17.3 -17.7 -21.9 -22.6-39.

34、7-62.5-200-250-300-350-400-191.8-347.8Source: Credit Suisse estimatesChina MarketStrategy4消费行业报告文档资料3 January 2022Figure 10: CS covered universeearnings revision and earnings growthEarnings revision (%)Earningsgrowth(%)P/E (x)202120222021202220212022-0.5-3.815.610.811.810.7Communication Services-11.

35、9-11.63.214.019.917.3-22.6-25.4-1.817.532.126.83.011.69.110.27.16.4ConsumerDiscretionary-8.4-20.725.08.024.022.1-17.3-6.037.830.840.231.05.57.921.818.219.016.1Consumer Services-62.5-42.742.6108.141.721.2-3.9-28.922.1-4.419.820.7Consumer Staples-6.1-7.39.417.441.734.7-3.2-5.413.116.738.532.8-101.8-79

36、.0Turn to lossTurnaroundn.a.103.544.6148.90.27.57.5-2.0-2.72.58.66.55.90.90.83.27.75.14.711.313.124.212.315.714.1Insurance-17.7-20.6-7.311.29.88.8Healthcare2.3-25.040.9-1.258.757.5-23.5-3.519.744.019.914.4CapitalGoods2.64.14.98.714.012.9-12.0-11.814.218.611.39.5Transportation-191.8-35.4-40.5Turnarou

37、ndn.a.25.7Information13.29.961.918.524.720.854.149.4119.519.729.224.4Software &Services-39.7-38.8Turnaround62.1136.384.15.62.843.817.120.817.746.345.669.94.411.610.9Real Estate-21.9-24.51.47.96.25.7Utilities-2.1-3.19.87.514.513.5-347.8-97.3-32.8Turnaroundn.a.29.2Note: data as of 21-Dec-2021. Source:

38、 Credit Suisse estimatesJinfengShiofCreditSuisseSecurities(China)Limited(CSS)providedadministrativeand other support in the preparation of this research report that does not require a licence. CSS is a Sino-foreign joint venture between Credit Suisse AG and Founder Securities Co., Ltd. CSS is notlic

39、ensedtoprovidesecuritiesinvestmentadvisoryservicebytheChinaSecuritiesRegulatory CommissioninthePeoplesRepublicofChina.China MarketStrategy5消费行业报告文档资料3 January 2022Figure 11: CS China model portfolioCS vs MSCI Recommended stocksCommunication Services17.915(2.9)17.715(2.7) Tencent (13%), Kuaishou (1%)

40、, NetEase (1%)Telecommunication0.20(0.2)Consumer Discretionary29.226(3.2)6.170.9 BYD H (2%), Great Wall H (1%), Guangzhou Automobile (1%), Minth (1%), NIO(2%)ConsumerDurables&Apparel2.930.1 Li Ning (1%), Shenzhou (1%), Haier H (1%)Consumer Services2.130.9 Jiumaojiu (1%), T (1%), Haohai (1%)18.113(5.

41、1) Alibaba (7%), Meituan (1%), PDD (2%), JD (2%), Zhongsheng (1%),Consumer Staples6.16(0.1)Food&StaplesRetailing0.10(0.1)Food Beverage & Tobacco5.860.2 Mengniu (1%), CR Beer (2%), Moutai (1%), Tsingdao Brewery H (1%), Luzhou Household & Personal Products0.20(0.2)5.8104.2 3.984.1 Estun (1%), Hongfa (

42、1%), NARI (1%), CSCI (1%), CATL (1%), Inovance (1%),TBEA(1%),GoldwindH(1%)Commercial&ProfessionalServices0.20(0.2)1.720.3 ZTO (1%), SF (1%)Financials14.812(2.8)Banks9.17(2.1) Industrial Bank (0.5%), CMB H (2%), Bank of Nanjing (1%), ABC H (1%), PAB(0.5%), PSBC (1%), Bank of Ningbo (1%)2.130.9 CICC H

43、 (1%), East Money (1%), CITICS H (1%)Insurance3.62(1.6) Ping An H (1%), China Pacific H (1%)Health Care7.17(0.1)Health Care Equipment &Services1.20(1.2)PharmaceuticalsBiotechnology&LifeSci5.971.1 Beigene (2%), IMAB (1%), Hutchmed (1%), Wuxi Bio (2%), ZLAB (1%)Information Technology6.98.51.6Semicondu

44、ctors&SemiconductorEquipment1.320.7GIGA(1%),WillSemi(1%)Software &Services1.41(0.4) Yonyou (1%) 4.25.51.3 Sunny Optical (1%), Luxshare (1%), Maxscend (1%), Inspur (0.5%), BOE (1%),ZTE H(1%)Energy1.72.50.8 Shenhua H (1%), PetroChina (0.5%), CNOOC (1%)3.551.5 Wanhua (0.5%), Zijin Mining (0.5%), Bao St

45、eel (1%), Dongyue (1%), Ganfeng (1%), Real Estate4.04(0.0) Longfor (1%), CIFI (1%), CR Land (1%), COLI (1%)Utilities3.041.0 Longi (1%), Longyuan (1%), CR Power (1%), Tongwei (1%)100.01000.0Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesChina MarketStrategy6消费行业报告文档资料3 January 2022Figure 12: Valuation

46、table for CS model portfolio (Part 1)Sector2021202220212022202120222021202120211211.HK263.0380.0135.2107.632.929.82%26%7.25%0.1%2238.HK7.610.29.17.1114.164.019%28%0.78%3.4%2333.HK26.841.029.723.331.126.525%27%3.311%1.7%0425.HK33.948.017.213.712.19.533%26%2.012%2.3%32.483.0417.5179.841%123%13.6-15%0.

47、0%1288.HK2.73.83.63.35%7%0.411%8.8%601009.SS NJB8.912.65.85.114%14%0.814%5.3%002142.SZ NBB38.246.913.110.825%21%2.015%1.6%3968.HK60.578.010.89.44.43.520%16%1.716%3.1%601166.SS CIB19.130.15.24.519%15%0.713%5.0%000001.SZ PAB16.828.59.47.928%18%1.011%1.5%1658.HKPSBC5.57.45.95.29%13%0.711%5.3%3311.HK9.5

48、11.66.95.79.38.016%20%0.913%4.4%300750.SZ CATL590.0765.0119.585.974.553.2106%39%18.415%0.1%600885.SS Hongfa73.787.049.436.724.018.333%35%8.617%0.6%600406.SS Nari40.342.936.229.726.521.55%22%4.916%1.3%300124.SZ Inovance69.491.154.240.354.240.35%34%13.926%0.6%600089.SS TBEA20.632.014.013.67.47.3121%3%

49、1.913%2.9%2208.HK14.917.814.012.012.510.924%17%1.410%2.5%002747.SZ Estun26.042.7165.856.295.543.23%195%8.35%0.1%6690.HK32.048.217.915.111.89.412%19%3.117%2.1%2331.HK84.2107.045.135.531.023.9120%27%14.933%0.7%2313.HK147.9184.039.628.728.321.0-10%38%6.216%1.4%24.833.0106.929.983.3208%258%1.01%0.0%9922

50、.HK12.833.036.619.112.26.6222%92%4.512%0.5%6826.HK50.570.015.212.728.623.5108%20%1.28%2.0%3908.HK21.125.59.68.311%16%1.011%2.6%6030.HK20.223.611.010.126%9%1.19%3.8%300059.SZ EastMoney37.045.051.141.639.832.631%23%10.821%0.4%1088.HK18.221.55.95.73.33.139%4%0.813%17.0%0857.HK3.55.75.45.52.92.5406%-1%0

51、.47%7.1%0883.HK8.012.83.93.52.22.1200%11%0.616%12.8%2319.HK44.358.027.723.421.217.646%18%4.015%0.8%0291.HK62.784.042.631.518.118.031%35%6.816%1.1%2,075.02,500.049.643.632.027.812%14%13.828%1.0%254.0268.049.039.934.527.926%23%14.029%1.4%0168.HK72.688.029.425.219.716.519%17%3.612%0.8%2601.HK21.034.06.

52、45.96.96.22%9%0.811%7.6%2318.HK56.380.07.46.55.83.9-23%14%1.013%5.2%600019.SS Baosteel7.113.05.35.13.02.6137%3%0.814%10.4%0189.HK11.928.011.99.34.43.5122%27%1.613%2.9%138.0200.052.147.448.431.6235%10%15.229%0.7%100.7134.013.315.09.09.4137%-11%5.038%2.3%2899.HK9.219.012.010.37.66.4152%16%3.328%3.9%11

53、6.4170.049.527.435.620.3140%81%15.331%0.4%1024.HK68.1160.043%11%6.3-55%0.0%0700.HK443.4615.027.224.016.019.14%13%3.914%0.0%103.8145.024.421.124.721.222%16%4.920%1.0%273.4467.025%-26%3.3-14%0.0%35.343.0-184%22%6.5-47%0.0%47.990.0-308%-21%38%0.0%2269.HK90.0151.081.660.375.955.5121%35%13.316%0.0%66.918

54、7.0-97%33%4.1-53%0.0%0688.HK18.526.64.14.05.35.36%4%0.512%7.3%1109.HK33.044.07.16.45.24.912%11%0.912%5.2%0884.HK4.66.14.03.66.97.76%11%0.819%10.1%0960.HK36.848.38.47.45.35.214%13%1.518%5.4%Note: Priced as of 30-Dec-2021. O=Outperform. Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesChina MarketStrategy

55、7消费行业报告文档资料3 January 2022Figure 13: Valuation table for CS model portfolio (Part 2)PB(x)Sector2021202220212022202120222021202120219988.HK109.9176.011.014.28.99.6-11%13%2.119%0.0%9618.HK259.8465.041.024.368.224.9-2%69%2.97%0.0%3690.HK218.4311.0na603.9na414.3-621%111%9.0-14%0.0%PinduoduoRetailing59.51

56、25.047.021.252.217.1424%122%6.814%0.0%0881.HK59.891.015.912.910.08.135%23%3.322%1.3%603986.SSGigadeviceSemiconductors&SemiconductorEquipment175.9247.048.143.039.833.0174%12%9.419%0.9%603501.SS Will Semi310.8375.058.242.344.631.967%38%16.629%0.2%600588.SS Yonyou35.947.995.495.868.154.424%0%14.715%0.7

57、%000725.SZ BOE5.16.57.98.83.53.3341%-10%1.418%2.5%000977.SZ Inspur35.846.526.321.914.512.935%20%3.212%0.4%002475.SZ Luxshare49.256.645.530.730.621.65%48%9.922%0.2%300782.SZ Maxscend326.8428.054.042.544.433.383%27%15.629%0.3%2382.HK246.6295.043.232.828.722.35%32%10.725%0.5%0763.HK21.434.410.29.210.69

58、.985%11%1.616%2.1%002352.SZ SF Holding Transportation69.080.0267.042.540.416.8-81%529%4.01%0.2%28.040.028.721.717.012.78%32%2.69%0.0%600438.SS Tongwei42.175.023.021.215.013.2114%8%5.022%1.3%601012.SS LONGi81.2130.040.028.426.818.925%41%9.824%0.3%0916.HK18.021.518.215.49.68.738%18%1.910%1.2%0836.HKCR

59、Power26.123.013.211.27.77.024%18%1.410%3.0%Note: Priced as of 30-Dec-2021. O=Outperform. Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesChina MarketStrategy8消费行业报告文档资料3 January 2022Table of Contents HYPERLINK l PageMark1 Focus HYPERLINK l PageMark1 charts HYPERLINK l PageMark1 2 HYPERLINK l PageMark2

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