历年存款利率

影响保险保费收入的因素以三到四个解释变量为宜可以加入时间这一解释变量，消除时间趋势利率，GDP，。。。。保险有关的理论知识为什么选取和几个解释变量（理由）历年存款利率以下是从1990年以来中国央行公布的历年存款利率表，也可以去查看历年贷款利率表。金融机构人民币存款基准利率调整时间活期三个月半年一年二年三年五年1952.09.155.4010.8012.6014.401953.01.015.409.6010.8014.401954.09.015.409.7210.8014.401955.10.012.885.046.127.921959.01.012.163.604.801959.07.012.162.884.686.126.306.501965.06.012.163.243.961971.10.012.163.241979.04.012.163.603.964.505.04

1980.04.012.884.325.406.126.841982.04.012.884.325.766.847.921985.04.012.885.406.847.928.281985.08.012.886.127.208.289.361988.09.012.886.488.649.189.7210.801989.02.012.889.0011.3412.2413.1414.941989.06.012.887.561990.04.152.886.307.7410.0810.9811.8813.681990.08.212.164.326.488.649.3610.0811.521991.04.211.803.245.407.567.928.289.001993.05.152.164.867.209.189.9010.8012.061993.07.113.156.669.0010.9811.7012.2413.861996.05.012.974.867.209.189.9010.8012.061996.08.231.983.335.407.477.928.289.001997.10.231.712.884.145.675.946.216.661998.03.251.712.884.145.225.586.216.661998.07.011.442.793.964.774.864.955.22

1998.12.071.442.793.333.783.964.144.501999.06.100.991.982.162.252.432.702.882002.02.210.721.711.891.982.252.522.792004.10.290.721.712.072.252.703.243.602006.08.190.721.802.252.523.063.694.142007.03.180.721.982.432.793.333.964.412007.05.190.722.072.613.063.694.414.952007.07.210.812.342.883.333.964.685.222007.08.220.812.613.153.604.234.955.492007.09.150.812.883.423.874.505.225.762007.12.210.723.333.784.144.685.405.852008.10.090.723.153.513.8742.415.135.582008.10.300.722.883.243.604.144.775.132008.11.270.361.982.2522.25.523.063.603.872008.12.230.361.711.982.252.793.333.602010.10.190.361.912.202.503.253.854.202010.12.260.362.252.502.753.554.154.552011.02.090.402.602.803.003.904.505.00（单位：年利率%）（数据来源：央行网站）银行利息税变化时间表利息税始于1950年，当年颁布的《利息所得税条例》规定，对存款利息征收10%（后降为5%）的所得税，1959年利息税停征，1999年11月1日再次恢复征收。储蓄存款在1999年11月1日前孳生的利息所得，不征收个人所得税；储蓄存款在1999年11月1日至2007年8月14日孳生的利息所得，按照20%的比例税率征收个人所得税；储蓄存款在2007年8月15日至2008年10月8日孳生的利息所得，按照5%的比例税率征收个人所得税。储蓄存款在2008年10月9日（含）后孳生的利息所得，暂停征收个人所得税。个人活期存款在每个季度的最后一个月20日结息一次，涉及到的2008年10月9日之前孳生的利息所得，还要按照5%的比例税率征收个人所得税。对影响人身保险保费收入诸因素的计量分析本文用计量经济学的方法对影响人身保险保费收入诸因素进行分析,试图通过实证数据考查各因素影响的程度,希望我们的模型及结论能为有关部门的决策提供参考.一,人身保险有关理论简介人身保险是以人的生命或身体为保险标的的保险,兼具保障与储蓄两大功能.影响人身保险保费收入的因素主要有:1,国民经济发展水平.（国民经济发展水平越高,人们的收入越多,有更多的钱购买保险,一般来说保费收入也越多）.2,商品经济发展程度.（商品经济的发展程度与保险需求成正比，商品经济越发达，则保险需求越大，反之，则越小。在我们的分析中，运用了进口额来反映这一因素。）3,国民保险意识（作为一种科学的风险管理工具，保险必须首先要为人接受才能发挥出应有的作用，一国国民风险意识尤其是树立运用保险机制来管理风险的意识对于保险业的发展也起着重要的作用）

4,利率（利率的替代效应，保险与银行储蓄一样都是国民的一种投资方式，当银行利率高时人们会选择更为稳健的投资方式将钱存在银行而不会去买保险，从而影响保费收入。）5,其他.如制度,人口数量和结构二,模型及有关说明1,我们用GDP衡量经济发展水平,模型中用X表示.用进口额衡量商品经济发展水平，模型中用S表示.国民保险意识也可通过S间接反映用I表示利率.模型中的数据均为实际数据，具体见下表.Y人身保险保费收入（亿元）XGDP（亿元）S进口额（亿元）I利率（%）obsYXSI198724.9930011962.501614.2007.200000198837.5000014928.302055.1008.640000198919.5800016909.202199.90011.34000199028.4100018547.902574.3008.000000199141.4100021617.803398.7007.560000199264.2900026638.104443.3007.5600001993144.070034634.405986.20010.980001994163.400046759.409960.10010.980001995204.200058479.1011048.1010.980001996324.620067884.6011557.407.4700001997600.240074462.6011806.505.6700001998747.700078345.2011626.103.7800001999872.100082067.5013736.502.2500002000997.500089442.2018639.002.25000020011424.00095933.3020164.202.2500002、建立回归方程:Y=C+B1X+B2S+B3I+U用OLS法进行回归,结果见下表：DependentVariable:YMethod:LeastSquaresDate:05/08/05Time:20:36Sample:19872001Includedobservations:15VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.X-0.0014880.005070-0.2934790.7746S0.0533510.0240512.2182810.0485I-57.5969214.31660-4.0230860.0020C398.1295171.73422.3182890.0407R-squared0.938880Meandependentvar379.6009AdjustedR-squared0.922212S.D.dependentvar442.7860S.E.ofregression123.4956Akaikeinfocriterion12.69347Sumsquaredresid167762.8Schwarzcriterion12.88228Loglikelihood-91.20100F-statistic56.32509Durbin-Watsonstat1.950094Prob(F-statistic)0.000001T(B1)不显著,F显著,可能存在多重共线性.计算相关系数矩阵:XSIX1.0000000.973767-0.705918S0.9737671.000000-0.667927I-0.705918-0.6679271.000000由此看出;X与S之间存在高度线性相关,建立回归方程X=C+BS+U作辅助回归.用OLS法回归，得下表：DependentVariable:XMethod:LeastSquaresDate:05/09/05Time:22:32Sample:19872001Includedobservations:15VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.S4.8534510.31455215.429720.0000C6915.6053306.5602.0914800.0567R-squared0.948223Meandependentvar49240.81AdjustedR-squared0.944240S.D.dependentvar30281.89S.E.ofregression7150.627Akaikeinfocriterion20.71135Sumsquaredresid6.65E+08Schwarzcriterion20.80576Loglikelihood-153.3352F-statistic238.0763Durbin-Watsonstat0.765323Prob(F-statistic)0.000000T与F均显著,X与S存在稳定的关系，与经济意义相符.为考查保费收入与GDP之间的关系，建立丫与X间的回归模型:丫=C+BX+U用OLS回归得DependentVariable:丫Method:LeastSquaresDate:05/08/05Time:21:01Sample:19872001Includedobservations:15VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.X0.0133380.0016628.0246750.0000C-277.158095.19727-2.9114070.0121R-squared0.832031Meandependentvar379.6009AdjustedR-squared0.819111S.D.dependentvar442.7860S.E.ofregression188.3217Akaikeinfocriterion13.43775Sumsquaredresid461045.8Schwarzcriterion13.53215Loglikelihood-98.78310F-statistic64.39540Durbin-Watsonstat0.447415Prob(F-statistic)0.000002T与F均显著，说明GDP对保费收入存在显著影响且B>0,与经济意义相符3,对模型进行修正去掉解释变量X后模型为:Y=C+B2S+B3I+U用OLS回归得DependentVariable:YMethod:LeastSquaresDate:05/08/05Time:21:11Sample:19872001Includedobservations:15VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.S0.0466250.0070166.6455210.0000I-56.2196113.00032-4.3244790.0010C373.6930144.36602.5885110.0237R-squared0.938402Meandependentvar379.6009AdjustedR-squared0.928136S.D.dependentvar442.7860S.E.ofregression118.7000Akaikeinfocriterion12.56793Sumsquaredresid169076.4Schwarzcriterion12.70954Loglikelihood-91.25950F-statistic91.40564Durbin-Watsonstat1.836838Prob(F-statistic)0.000000T与F均显著且B2>0,B3<O与经济意义相符4,异方差检验(1)图示法S：II&S(2)Arch检验ARCHTest:F-statistic1.069894Probability0.414622Obs*R-squared3.435974Probability0.329161TestEquation:DependentVariable:RESIDA2Method:LeastSquaresDate:05/08/05Time:21:58Sample(adjusted):19902001Includedobservations:12afteradjustingendpointsVariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.C30056.0512136.302.4765430.0383RESIDA2(-1)-0.6325750.545678-1.1592450.2798RESIDA2(-2)-0.9050540.537635-1.6833970.1308RESIDA2(-3)-0.6971710.531926-1.3106530.2263R-squared0.286331Meandependentvar11093.07AdjustedR-squared0.018705S.D.dependentvar16285.21S.E.ofregression16132.18Akaikeinfocriterion22.47622Sumsquaredresid2.08E+09Schwarzcriterion22.63786Loglikelihood-130.8573F-statistic1.069894Durbin-Watsonstat1.787019Prob(F-statistic)0.414622在0.05的显著性水平下，卡房(3)=7.81,因为3.435974<7.81所以接受H0,表明模型中随机误差项异方差不显著。5,自相关性检验从回归模型中建立残差序列e，画残差项散点图得：无自相关性DW检验：DependentVariable:YMethod:LeastSquaresDate:05/08/05Time:20:36Sample:19872001Includedobservations:15VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.X-0.0014880.005070-0.2934790.7746S0.0533510.0240512.2182810.0485I-57.5969214.31660-4.0230860.0020C398.1295171.73422.3182890.0407R-squared0.938880Meandependentvar379.6009Adj