房地产泡沫破裂的后果分析

房地产泡沫破裂的后果分析摘要：房地产泡沫的破裂首先对银行产生宏大的危害，通过对包括香港在内的22个工业化国家和地产的住房市场及股市的热潮和衰落的研究，我们发现住房价格下跌更可能使银行受到打击，原因是在多数国家，银行主导着购房贷款业务。但是房地产泡沫所带来的灾难远不止停留在银行的层面上。关键词：房地产泡沫；泡沫破裂；经济危机；政治危机；社会危机一、房地产泡沫破裂诱发经济危机(一)消费萎缩(二)消费锐减(三)经济增速下降二、房地产泡沫破裂还可能引发政治和社会危机香港房地产泡沫破灭亦同样令百业萧条，失业率上升，但香港的经济根底较坚稳，社会福利保障亦较其它东南亚国家完善，尽管民怨日深，但始终没有造成太大的社会动乱。在图4为由1997年4月至2022年3月香港私人住宅售价指数与特首董建华的支特度走趋比较，不难发现董建华自出任特首开始，支特度一直下跌，与楼价走势相似，但波动幅度较细，支特度长期在50以下，而2022年7月期间更一度跌至40以下。图5为香港私人住宅售价指数与特首董建华的支特度的相关度分析，我们可以见到在楼价由55至95之区间，正相关度较高，高于或低于此区间，相关度较低，反映民意认为某些环境不是特区政府或董建华所能控制的，例如亚洲金融风暴或非典疫情令房价下跌，说明香港民意是有理智的。三、总结readers.TraumatizedbytherapeofSetheandthema-ternalviolation,Hallegraduallyloseshismind.Hisselfhoodshatters.Hesmearedthatbutteronhisface,Sethethinks,becausethemilktheytookfromherisonhismindeventually.Thoseplexfactorsdrivehiminmentaldisorderasmostmadpeopledo.Even,hedisappearsfromthemunityforpermanentes-capefromthetrauma,themortalruinratherthanper-manentsafety.PassivevictimsSurvivingvictimsPaulDisoneoftheenslavedinSweetHome,whereSetheandHalleisenslaved.UnlikeSetheboundingherselfin124afterallhardships,heexpe-riencesmore,bedwithallhardshipsandarduousself-reorganization.His"tobaccotin"causedbyformertraumaisarousedbyBeloved,wholiterallymanipulateshim,makinghimphysicallyrestlessandforcinghimtosleepwithherintheshedoutsidethehouse.ThoughPaulD'shatredforBelovedneverceases,theirstrange,dreamlikesexualencountersopenthelidofhis"tobaccotin"heart,allowinghimtoremember,feel,andloveagain.ThetraumaticawakingplaysaroleagainwhenhetemporarilyretreatsafterlearningSethemurderingherchild."Hemustworkoutofaconditionofpsychicfragmentation——hisselfhoodhasbeenseverelyimpaired,hisstatusasahumansubjectdeniedbytheslaveculture".WhenhedecidestoreturnstoSetheandherfearful,murderouslove,hetriestoreconstructfuture.HehasthecapacitytoleadSetheoutofhernarcissis-ticisolationandintorelationshipwiththeexternalworld."Heisabletosalvageoutofthewreckagebol-steringfaithinbothselfandother.HetriestopassthisfaithontoSetheattheend."Hisfingersholdinghers,hetoldSethethatSetheherselfwasherbestthinginsteadofBeloved.Hisfaithindicatestheinitia-tivesofdealingwithtrauma.Hesuccessfullydoesit,andsodoesSetheashewishes.ThescenebetweenthemattheendesclosesttothestateofmutualrecognitionandattunementbyPaulD'slastrescue.Hisstrugglewitnessesthevictoryofbeatingthetrau-mabequeathedbyslaveryBesidesPaulD,Denverisanothercharacterofhealingthetraumaandachievingmaturityaftersuffer-ing.Thougheighteenyearsold,sheactsmuchyounger,maintaininganintensefearoftheworldout-side124andaperilouslyfragilesenseofself.Feelinglonelyandexiled,herself-hooddevelopswiththegrowingofhersenseofself.Belovedisbinationofpre-Oedipalplex,achild'searly(non-sexual)fixationonthemotherpri-ortothechild'sentranceintotheOedipalplexi-dentifiedbyFreudandmaternalhatred,whichseemverycontradictory.Attheverybeginning,BelovedandDenverloveeachotherlikeaunion.WhenthetruththatBelovedistheghostofDenver'sdeadsisterisrevealed,theydenieseachotherfortheirdesireforthesamemother.Thesenseofenvyisalsopre-Oedipalplex.Underthecircumstance,sister-hoodgiveswaytomother-hood.Paradoxically,Beloved'sdesireformotherisvengefulduetohertraumaofbeingkilledbyherownmother.ShemakeseffortstotorturesSethementallyaspossibleasshecan.TheinteractionbetweenBelovedandSetheistenseandvulnerableliketheenduranceofachord.OnceSethereciprocatesBeloved'sviolentpassionforher,thetwobeelockedinadestruc-tive,exclusive,parasiticrelationship.Sometimes,Belovedbeesextremelymalevo-lent.ThesceneinwhichshealmoststranglesSethe,anactthatmirrorsthewayhermotherpreviouslysawedthroughherthroat,suggestsherextremehatredonSethe.Herrevengeispracticedbyherviolenceandviciousness:sheseduceshermother'slover(PaulD)andattacksSethe'sdog,herhouse,andSetheherself.Becausemotheranddaughterhavebeeindistin-guishablebyherwretcheddemands,inwhichSethebeesemaciatedwhileshebeesfat,herattackonSetheiseffectivelyaformofself-destructionatthesametimesheruinsSethefiercely.Bytheway,herresentmentwillbeeasedlittle.Hervengefuldesireissopoignantthatthatallareruinedwon'tsatisfyher.Sheisacursedghost,whoisnotonlycursedbutalsocursesthewhole.124isherconsiderableplace,whereeverythingisarrangedforherresentment.Hertraumaseemsincurablebecauseitisfrequentlydepositedandincreasedforeverlikeinanition.MorefortunatethanBeloved,Setheisstillcur-ablealthoughsheisalmostruinedbythehardshipsofslavery.Whatsheexperiencesisthepurgatorialsuffer-ing,themostseverepaininlife.Inthehardshipsofslavery,unwillingtorelin-quishherchildrentothephysical,emotional,andspir-itualtraumashehasenduredasaslave,shesuccess-fullymurdersoneofherchildren,whichsheconsidersasanactofmother'sloveandprotection.Actually,thedeedistheextremeofmother'sdevotiontoherbaby,whichsherepeatsandemphasizesforseveraltimesinfrontofothers.Herextremeisoneoftenden-cypeoplearelikelytohavewhentheyareintheposi-tionofpossessionandlosing.Sheconsidersherbabyasonepartofherself,thebeautifulpart,whichshehasrighttodispose.Inthehardesttime,thetimeofdespair,shedesperatelydecidesthebaby'sdestina-tionbymurderinghercruelly.Theextremecrueltylingersonhermindasatraumainherlatterlifeaftertheendoftheslavery.Afterwards,Sethe'sbehaviorbeespurgatorial.Sheenclosesherselfin124,whereshecanregretforhercrueltyofmurderingherbaby.Sheisunabletotellanyoneaboutherpastandsheistotallyenslavedbyit.Sheisbrokendownandalsocuredwhenshebe-eshysteriainstrugglewithhertrauma,whichisunintentionallytreatedwhilesheisforcedbyBelovedtorecalltheunendurablepast——storiesaboutherownfeelingsofabandonmentbyhermother,abouttheharshestindignitiesshesufferedatSweetHome,andabouthermotivationsformurderingherdaughter.Herhysteriaisconfirmedbyheractionsintheexorcismscene,wheresheattackstheliberalwhiteman,Ed-wardBodwin.FreudandBreuerproposedthathysteri-calsymptomsdisappearwhenthememoryofthedis-turbingeventthatfirstprovokedsymptomsisrecalledandtheaffectoftraumaisaroused.Cureesthroughthereproductionoftheprimalsceneoftrau-ma,whichcreatesanopportunityforrevisionofthepsychiceventsthatcausetheprimaltrauma.SethetryingtokillBodwinsymbolicallyconsti-tutesarestagingofhertrauma:thedeathofherdaughter.BodwinapproachesthehousetocollectDen-verforworkinthesamewaythatschoolteacherap-proachedtorecapturehisslaves.Butthistime,Sethechoosesadifferentcourseofaction.Insteadoftryingtoprotectherchildrenbykillingthem,shefliesatBodwinwithanicepick.Forthefirsttime,herprotestisdirectedoutwardtowardthesourceofoppression,representedbyBodwin(whostandsforschoolteacher),ratherthantakingtheformofself-destructionofmur-deringherownchildrenlasttime.AtthatmomentBeloveddisappears.Sheisalsoreleasedandsavedbymother'shysteriaandherdesperateresponsetothesametrauma,whichthemotherandthedaughtershareforsolong.OnlywhenSethelearnstoconfrontthepasthead-on,toassertherselfinitspresence,canshelib-eratesherselffromitsoppressivepowerandbegintolivefreely,peacefully,andresponsiblyinthepresent.Aftertheclimax,SetheisextremelyexhaustedwhilePaulDeventuallyreturnstothehouse.Whensheliesinbed,PaulDgivesherhope,gentlytouchingherface:"Meandyou,wegotmoreyesterdaythanany-body…Weneedsomekindoftomorrow.""'Youyourbestthing,Sethe.Youare.'Hisholdingfingersareholdinghers.'Me?Me?"AlthoughSetheisunsureaboutherself,shebeginstorecognizethatsheherselfmaybethecenterofherlife,ratherthanthepassingbabyorthepastgoneby.Sheisforgiv