课程-财务分析应用财报1.初步净现值计算

财务分析应光华管理学院Last1.估值初步，净现值的计2.DiscounteddividendmodelandFreecashflowmodel3. e eThevalueofthefirmcanbethesumofthree1)OriginalInvested2)Costof3)AbnormalAbnormalForecastEstimate“r”,thecostofequityEstimateexpectedabnormalUse“r”toestimatethePVofabnormalduringtheforecastEstimatethePVofexpectedabnormalearningsbeyondtheforecasthorizonComputerequityvaluebysummingtogethertheMakeyouraccountingAdjustmenttoFinancialOverseveralyears,FirmAhasconsistentlyrecordedlossesinitsavailable-for-saleAdjusteFirmBconsistentlycapitalizesexpendituresthatshouldhavebeenAdjusteandbookFirmChasrecordedforeigncurrencytranslationlossesonitsbalancesheetoverseveralyears;thelossesareexpectedtocontinueAdjusteFirmDacceleratesrevenuestothecurrentperiodanddefersexpensestolaterperiodsAdjusteandbooktransitoryVSAnimportanementiswhetherearningsaretransitoryorpermanent.Whatisthevalueofreceiving$1transitoryearningsdollartoday?$1(nopresentvaluecalculationWhatisthevalueofreceiving$1permanentearningsdollarifthediscountrateis10%?$1/.10=EarningsWhydoesearningspersistencePersistentearningsarecurrentexpectedprimarysourceoffuturewealth,andthusareprimarydriverofcurrentfirmvalueHowtoassessearningsUseavailableestatementInformationinnotes,MD&A,andApply未来股利未来现金流CF（经营现金流+投资现金流未来盈余EPS（净利润股权资本成本ρe（折现率债权资本成本ρd（折现率企业资本成本ρwacc（折现率总之，是对未来的用资本成本折成现小 eBalanceSheetWhatisvalueofthefirmaccordingtoitsbalancesheet?AsCurrentBuildingandNetBalanceSheetWhatwoulditbeifadjustedassetsandliabilitiesonbalancesheettoreflectfairmarketvalues?AsCurrentBuildingandNetLandandWhatabouttheItsaysthatthebookvalueisonly10%ofitsfairmarketvalue.1000/ WhatabouttheItsaysthatthisvalueisNetFairMarketAsCurrentBuildingandNetProblemswithBalanceSheetSome(many?)assetsreportedonbalancesheetarenotreportedateconomicvaluesBookvaluesreflectamixofvaluationIsadjustingitemstoFMVaSome(many?)economicassetsandliabilitiesdonotqualifyasaccountingassetsandliabilities,andthusaremissingfrombalanceExamplesincludehumancapitalorfullydepreciatedfixedDifferencebetweenI/SVersusB/SB/Svaluationbasedonindividual,identifiable,reliablyfiableassetsandliabilitiesI/SvaluationbasedoncompanytakenasaMissingassetsfrombalanceOnewaytoreconcilethetwomodelsistonotethatassetsthatarenotrecognizedonthebalancesheetwillgeneratefutureexcessROE小BalanceSheetvaluationOverlifeof ∞V0

(1+r)tIfstreamofearningsisinfiniteandV0=rShareprice(P)=Earningspershare(E)*EssentiallyadiscountedearningsmodelthatassumesaninfinitestreamofearningsRelatespricepersharetoearningspershareviaamultiplierInverseofmultipleisstockmarket’sdiscountrateforcompany(rWhatdoesaP/Eof20$1increaseinEPSshouldincreasepriceNoIfassumenogrowthinP=EIfP/E=15.38,whatismarket’sdiscount–

15.38=1/r=IfassumeconstantgrowthinP=E[(1+g)/(r-gisthegrowthrateinearningsperIfP/E=15.38andr=15%,whatismarket’simplied15.38=(1+g)/(0.15-g=Lessthan20%ofpublicU.S.companieshaverealgrowthrateaboveWhataboutEarningsPEratioandvariants(PEGandRelativeBookvaluePrice/BookvalueofequityPrice/Salespershare1.Find arkmarketcorrectlysets arkstockallfirmshavethesamecashflowgrowthareaccountingtechniquestocalculateearningsaresimilar2.Selectfinancialperformancesales,cashflow,earnings,book3.Estimatepricemultiplesforcomparablefirmsusingthemeasureofperformance.4.Applycomparablefirm(s)multipletotheperformancemeasureofthefirmbeingInsidethe“BlackBox”ofSell- ysts（Brownet小乘数分背后逻辑和可能问Prospectiveysis:分析，会计分析和财务分和评估（估值整体和部门注意转GettingStarted:Pointsof什么profit开始点的可能选择TheBehaviorofSaleshistoricallyintherangeof7to9percentforU.S.BehaviorofSalesGrowthoverTimeforU.S.Companies ndHealy)SalesandNogenerallyacceptedtailoredtothereflectthefactorsconsideredinthepriorstepsofthewhenlittlehistoryestimatethesizeof projectthedegreeofmarketconsiderhowquicklythatdegreeofpenetrationcanTheForecastofExpensesandExpensesshouldbeforecastitembyitem,sinceexpensesmaybedrivenbydifferentSegmentTHEBEHAVIOROFRETURNS“mean-historicallyintherangeof10to15percentU.S.

121234560------

销售增长率

--

股东权益增长率 年度

年度pose整体和sustainablecompetitiveconservativeaccountingEffectofOtherOperatingassetturnover:functionofthetechnologyofNetfinancialleverage:managementpoliciesoncapitalSpread:changesinNOPATForecastofBalanceSheetSincevariousbalancesheetaccountsmaybedrivenbydifferentfactors,theyareusuallybestforecastprojectoperatingworkingcapitalandoperatinglong-termassetsbymakingassumptionsaboutthesetwoassetcategoriesasafractionofsales.Threecriticalassumptions:ratioofoperatingworkingcapitaltosales,ratioofoperatinglong-termassetstosales,andtheratioofnetdebttoequity.ORassumethechangeineachbalancesheetaccountislinkedtothechangeinsales.WhataboutcashAdditional SeasonalityandInterim小PropertiesofaccountingEarnings“randomwalk”orrandomwalkwithdrift”如果我们仅仅根据今年的盈余来明年的盈总盈余（净利润）=应计盈余+现金（经营活动现金流t+1=ab*t+c*t1962至1991年数据回归估计盈余t+1=0.0110.855*现金盈余t0.765*应计盈余所以，如果盈余2003=$1$0.6$0.4,E(盈余20040.0110.855*$0.60.765*0.4投资者是否理解应计盈余的特性所以应计盈余比例大的企业的价格未来会相对下降；应计盈余比例小的企业的价格未来基于30年历史数据计算的应计利润/总Firmswithmorepersistentearningshaveamore‘‘sustainable’’earnings/cashflowstreamthatwillmakeitamoreuseful