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I.IntroductionM.PeterJurkatCS452/Mgt532SimulationforManagerialDecisionsTheRobertO.AndersonSchoolsofManagementUniversityofNewMexico

12/13/20221MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionI.IntroductionM.PeterJurkatDefinitionsSimulation:processofexperimentingwithamodelofadynamicsystems(e.g.,process)tostudyortestthebehaviorofthesystemimprove,problemsolvedesignand/orselectnewsystems,and/ortrainoperatorsonamodelofanexistingsystemsSystem:purposeful,interrelatedcomponentswithinterdependenciesandcomplexityBehavior:purposeful,interrelatedsequencesofactivitiesDynamic:timevarying(staticsystemsaredull!)12/13/20222MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionDefinitionsSimulation:12/12/2ExamplesServiceSystems:TrafficonNetworks:messagesto/fromcomputers,carsonroads/rails,airplanesto/fromairports/gates,shipsto/fromharbors/piers,elevatorsRetail/Service:storessellinggoods,service/repairshops,logistics/inventory/distribution/MRPManufacturingSystems:Materials,Chemicals,BiologicalsAppliances,Automobiles/Trucks,Toys,ClothingElectronics,WeaponsSystemsComputationsusingmodelsfromotherdisciplinesMacroeconomic:taxation/interestratecost/benefitsPollution:environmentalinterventioncost/benefitsProjectManagement:completiontimevsresources12/13/20223MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionExamplesServiceSystems:12/12/WhySimulate?ToovercomehumanlimitationsinPhysicalcapability:avoidinjuryanddeath;beabletocontrolsystemswhosedynamicsarenotyetknown,…Mentalcapability:attention,memory,processing,…Analysis:allowsustostudysystemstoocomplexforanalyticdescriptionand/ortoodangerousforhumansafety–gainknowledgeDesign:attemptchangesinIVstodriveoneormoreDVstowardan“optimal”valueorcombinationofvaluesfordesign,improvement,and/orproblemsolving12/13/20224MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionWhySimulate?ToovercomehumanWhennottoSimulate!WhentheorycandeterminesufficientresultsWhenitwillcostmoretosimulatethanthereturnontheknowledgegainedWhenthereisincompleteinformationaboutthesystem(canhandleimprecisebutnotmissingpieces)Needatleastinputsandrelatedoutputsfor“blackboxes”Canassumemissinginformationandcheckagainstknownresults–ifagreement,supportforassumptionsWhenitisnotpossibletodeveloparepresentative,tractablesimplificationofthesystem12/13/20225MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionWhennottoSimulate!WhentheoDefinitions(cont.)Model:representationofasystem–threephases:Verbal–alwaysincludedinanyrepresentationGraphical–seepages22,39,50,54,367,and536Algorithmand/orcomputerprogramExperimentation:purposeful,structured,andcontrolledchangeoftheinputsfactors(independentvariables–IVs,exogenous,…)ofaproductand/orprocesstoobserveresultingchangesinoutputs(dependentvariables-DVs,responses,results,outcomes,…)BothIVs,DVsalsocalledmeasuresormetricsInsimulationliteraturearunisoneexecutionofthesimulationprogramatonecombinationofinputvariablevalues–alsocalledareplication12/13/20226MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionDefinitions(cont.)Model:reprGraphicalRepresentation:

LogicalSymbolsBCNN4thEd.,Figure2.1,page22:SingleServerQueuingSystem12/13/20227MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionGraphicalRepresentation:

LogiGraphicalRepresentation:

StateVariableTrackingBCNN4thEd.,Example2.2,Figure2.11,page3912/13/20228MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionGraphicalRepresentation:

StatGraphicalRepresentation:

PhysicalLayoutBCNN4thEd.,Example2.6,Figure2.15,page5012/13/20229MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionGraphicalRepresentation:

PhysGraphicalRepresentation:

NetworkModelBCNN4thEd.,Example2.8,Figure2.18,page5412/13/202210MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionGraphicalRepresentation:

NetwGraphicalRepresentation:

“BlackBox”BCNN4thEd.,Figure10.5,page36712/13/202211MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionGraphicalRepresentation:

“BlaGraphicalRepresentation:

ComponentRelationshipBCNN4thEd.,Example14.4,Figure14.10,page536:Websiteconfiguration12/13/202212MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionGraphicalRepresentation:

CompSimulationStudyRepresentation

(afterBanksetal,Figure1.3,Page15)ProblemFormulationSetObjectivesandProjectPlan(Re)ConceptualizeModel&CollectDataTranslateModelCanModelbeVerified?NoCanModelbeValidated?YesNoDOE-DesignExperimentsRunsandReplicationsAnalysisResultsClearandAbletobeDescribed?NoDocument,ReportandRecommendYesYes12/13/202213MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionSimulationStudyRepresentatioSimulationStudyIdentifyproblem(s),improvement(s),and/orplannewcapabilitiesSpecifythesystem–selectboundaries,identifyinputs,entities,attributes,events,activities,processes,andstatevariables-specifyoutput(s)andtheirdesiredvaluesBuildaconceptualandoperationalmodelofthesystem–buildarepresentationofinputs,entities,…12/13/202214MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionSimulationStudyIdentifyproblSimulationStudy(cont.)VerifyandValidate(asbestyoucan)theoperationalmodelagainstexistingsystem–onlypartialmodelverification/validationmaybepossiblefornewsystemsPerformscreeningexperiment(s)toidentifyIVswithsignificanteffectondesiredoutput(s)–proceedwithonlytheseIVsSelectrangesofIVswhichreducevariabilitytoacceptablelevels,ifnecessary(CriticalStep!!!)Experimentwithmodeltoidentifyvaluesofinputswhich“optimize”outputor“achieve”goalBuildsystemorprototypetotestresultsofstudy12/13/202215MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionSimulationStudy(cont.)VerifySystemDescription,Problem,Objectives,ProjectPlanVerbaldescription/linguisticanalysisIdentifyproblemsand/or(re)designobjectivesIdentifyingrelevantEntitiesAttributesEventsActivities/processes,andstatevariables toaddressproblem(s)and/orobjectivesDevelopprojectplan–mayfollowSTEPSFOREXPERIMENTALDESIGNinSchmidtandLaunsbyonpagesI-26andI-2712/13/202216MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionSystemDescription,Problem,OSimulationModelComponentsEntities:namedphysical/conceptualobjects(impropernounsusedforUMLclasses,propernounsforUMLobjects)Attributes:namedcharacteristicorproperty(adjectives)Methods:namedactivitiesoroperationstheentitycanperform(predicates=verb+direct/indirectobject(s))States:namedsetofconditions,standings,circumstances,andpositionsdescribinganentityataparticulartime(adjectives,verbalnouns=gerunds)Processes:namedgroupsofactivitiesEvents:namednoteworthyoccurrences,oftenatthebeginningorcompletionofoneormoreactivitiesand/orprocesses12/13/202217MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionSimulationModelComponentsEntIdentifyVariablesOutput(dependent)variableswhosevalueswillbetheproblemsolution/designimprovementOperationaldefinitionsRangeofvaluesAppropriateoutputanalysisTransientvs.steadystateStatisticaltools(confidenceintervals,t-tests,ANOVA,regression/modelbuilding)12/13/202218MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionIdentifyVariablesOutput(depeIdentifyVariables(cont.)FactorsamongwhosecombinationofvalueswillprovidetheproblemsolutionofoptimumdesignThesewillbevariedbytheinvestigatoraccordingtosomeexperimentaldesign(DOE)Operationaldefinitions,rangeofvalues,levelvalues,potentialinteractions(foreventualassignmenttoDOEcolumns)Factormodel:relatesfactorstooutputvariables–developedinmodelingexperiments12/13/202219MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionIdentifyVariables(cont.)FactIdentifyVariables(cont.)StatevariableswhosechangeofvaluesdeterminetheeventsOthervariablesnecessaryforacompletemodelIdentifystochasticvariablesandcollectdatatospecifytheirdistributionsIfclosetoknownmathematicaldistributionsthenidentifytheirparametersElseuseasempiricaldistributionsCollectdataforconstants–thesemayhavetobefittedfromthedata12/13/202220MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionIdentifyVariables(cont.)Stat(Re)ConceptualizeSimulationModelandCollectDataSimulationmodel:relatesallvariablestooutputvariablesRepresentationtools:naturalordomainspecificlanguage/jargonmathematicalnotationcode(e.g.,Java,GPSS)andpseudo-code(primitiveaction,choice,iteration)flowchartsUMLPERT/CPMdiagramspictorialimagesstoryboards/moviesBuildSimulationModelandtheSimulationitself12/13/202221MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.Introduction(Re)ConceptualizeSimulationMVerifyandValidateVerifythatcalculationsinimplementationarecorrectValidatetheresultsagainstoutputknowntobeanaccuratereflectionofrealityMayonlybepossibleforpartsofthemodelorhighlyrestrictedsituationsIfnotmake“reasonablenesschecks”12/13/202222MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionVerifyandValidateVerifythatDesignandConductExperimentalRunsDoexperimentsScreen:experimentalruns(2-level?)tofindthesignificantfewfactorsModel:furtherornewsetofexperimentalruns(3or5levels)todevelopfactormodelequationsfitequationsbyregressionOptimize:solveequationsforoptimumormakeexperimentalrunstodrilldowntobestcombinationsoffactorsCheck:localoptimum(simulateallneighbors)12/13/202223MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionDesignandConductExperimentaSolutions/DesignIdentificationandReportFromsimulationrunsidentifythesolutiontotheproblemand/ortheoptimumdesignWriteReportAbstract(mayonlybeneededforresearchorarchivereports)ExecutiveSummary:non-technicalproblemstatement,solution/design,justification(notusuallyinresearchreports)TechnicalReport:completedetailssothatentireprojectcouldberepeatedbyothers–includingequations,code,distributions,runresultsTechnicalAppendix12/13/202224MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionSolutions/DesignIdentificatioSimulationReport

SeeSimulationStudy&ReportOutline.docfordetailsofeachsectionAbstractExecutiveSummaryFullTechnicalReportSituation,Problems,Opportunities,Goals,andObjectivesBackgroundSystemSpecificationPerformanceMeasuresInputFactorsSystemRepresentation/ModelProjectActivitiesInputSpecificationandModelImplementationVerificationandValidationExperimentsandResultsoftheSimulationRunsAnalysisandResultsConclusionandRecommendationsTechnicalAppendix12/13/202225MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionSimulationReport

SeeSimulatiAssignmentsChooseoneapplicationfromBanks1.1oryourselectionforaDESSproject:writesections3.a)-c)ofthereport(specifytheentities&makeasymbolicrepresentationusingflowcharts,UML,or…).Thiscanbeagroupexercise.Individualexercises,Banks1.6Prepareabriefwrittenreport(includecopyofpapersifpossible)andPrepareanevenbriefersetofslidesforpresentationtotheclass(unlessthesubjectofyourpaperisparticularlyinterestingyoumaynotbeaskedtoactuallymakethepresentation–inanycasethepresentationwillbeinformal)12/13/202226MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionAssignmentsChooseoneapplicatModelClassificationDoessystemevolveovertime?Static:onetimeperiodorsteadystateDynamic:changesoccurovertimeperiodofinterestHowoftendowehavetospecifychanges?DiscreteEvent:changesonlyoccuratinstancesseparatedintimeContinuousEvent:changesoccurconstantlyHowpredictableisthesystem?Deterministic:weassumewecanmodelthesystemasifweknowallthatneedstobeknownaboutthesystemStochastic(Stochs):weknowcertainaspectsofthesystemonlyasaprobabilitydistributionTotallyUnpredictable:cannotmodel12/13/202227MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionModelClassificationDoessysteHowVariousModelsareStudied*CourseContentsDeterministicStochasticStaticLogical/algebraicanalysis*MonteCarloMethodsDynamic:DiscreteEventSystems(DES)MechanisticandAlgorithmic*QueuingTheoryandDiscreteEventSimulationDynamic:ContinuousEventSystems(CSorCES)*NumericalSolutionofDifferenceand/orDifferentialEquations(DEs)StochasticDEs–AdvancedTopic12/13/202228MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionHowVariousModelsareStudiedI.IntroductionM.PeterJurkatCS452/Mgt532SimulationforManagerialDecisionsTheRobertO.AndersonSchoolsofManagementUniversityofNewMexico

12/13/202229MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionI.IntroductionM.PeterJurkatDefinitionsSimulation:processofexperimentingwithamodelofadynamicsystems(e.g.,process)tostudyortestthebehaviorofthesystemimprove,problemsolvedesignand/orselectnewsystems,and/ortrainoperatorsonamodelofanexistingsystemsSystem:purposeful,interrelatedcomponentswithinterdependenciesandcomplexityBehavior:purposeful,interrelatedsequencesofactivitiesDynamic:timevarying(staticsystemsaredull!)12/13/202230MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionDefinitionsSimulation:12/12/2ExamplesServiceSystems:TrafficonNetworks:messagesto/fromcomputers,carsonroads/rails,airplanesto/fromairports/gates,shipsto/fromharbors/piers,elevatorsRetail/Service:storessellinggoods,service/repairshops,logistics/inventory/distribution/MRPManufacturingSystems:Materials,Chemicals,BiologicalsAppliances,Automobiles/Trucks,Toys,ClothingElectronics,WeaponsSystemsComputationsusingmodelsfromotherdisciplinesMacroeconomic:taxation/interestratecost/benefitsPollution:environmentalinterventioncost/benefitsProjectManagement:completiontimevsresources12/13/202231MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionExamplesServiceSystems:12/12/WhySimulate?ToovercomehumanlimitationsinPhysicalcapability:avoidinjuryanddeath;beabletocontrolsystemswhosedynamicsarenotyetknown,…Mentalcapability:attention,memory,processing,…Analysis:allowsustostudysystemstoocomplexforanalyticdescriptionand/ortoodangerousforhumansafety–gainknowledgeDesign:attemptchangesinIVstodriveoneormoreDVstowardan“optimal”valueorcombinationofvaluesfordesign,improvement,and/orproblemsolving12/13/202232MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionWhySimulate?ToovercomehumanWhennottoSimulate!WhentheorycandeterminesufficientresultsWhenitwillcostmoretosimulatethanthereturnontheknowledgegainedWhenthereisincompleteinformationaboutthesystem(canhandleimprecisebutnotmissingpieces)Needatleastinputsandrelatedoutputsfor“blackboxes”Canassumemissinginformationandcheckagainstknownresults–ifagreement,supportforassumptionsWhenitisnotpossibletodeveloparepresentative,tractablesimplificationofthesystem12/13/202233MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionWhennottoSimulate!WhentheoDefinitions(cont.)Model:representationofasystem–threephases:Verbal–alwaysincludedinanyrepresentationGraphical–seepages22,39,50,54,367,and536Algorithmand/orcomputerprogramExperimentation:purposeful,structured,andcontrolledchangeoftheinputsfactors(independentvariables–IVs,exogenous,…)ofaproductand/orprocesstoobserveresultingchangesinoutputs(dependentvariables-DVs,responses,results,outcomes,…)BothIVs,DVsalsocalledmeasuresormetricsInsimulationliteraturearunisoneexecutionofthesimulationprogramatonecombinationofinputvariablevalues–alsocalledareplication12/13/202234MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionDefinitions(cont.)Model:reprGraphicalRepresentation:

LogicalSymbolsBCNN4thEd.,Figure2.1,page22:SingleServerQueuingSystem12/13/202235MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionGraphicalRepresentation:

LogiGraphicalRepresentation:

StateVariableTrackingBCNN4thEd.,Example2.2,Figure2.11,page3912/13/202236MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionGraphicalRepresentation:

StatGraphicalRepresentation:

PhysicalLayoutBCNN4thEd.,Example2.6,Figure2.15,page5012/13/202237MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionGraphicalRepresentation:

PhysGraphicalRepresentation:

NetworkModelBCNN4thEd.,Example2.8,Figure2.18,page5412/13/202238MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionGraphicalRepresentation:

NetwGraphicalRepresentation:

“BlackBox”BCNN4thEd.,Figure10.5,page36712/13/202239MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionGraphicalRepresentation:

“BlaGraphicalRepresentation:

ComponentRelationshipBCNN4thEd.,Example14.4,Figure14.10,page536:Websiteconfiguration12/13/202240MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionGraphicalRepresentation:

CompSimulationStudyRepresentation

(afterBanksetal,Figure1.3,Page15)ProblemFormulationSetObjectivesandProjectPlan(Re)ConceptualizeModel&CollectDataTranslateModelCanModelbeVerified?NoCanModelbeValidated?YesNoDOE-DesignExperimentsRunsandReplicationsAnalysisResultsClearandAbletobeDescribed?NoDocument,ReportandRecommendYesYes12/13/202241MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionSimulationStudyRepresentatioSimulationStudyIdentifyproblem(s),improvement(s),and/orplannewcapabilitiesSpecifythesystem–selectboundaries,identifyinputs,entities,attributes,events,activities,processes,andstatevariables-specifyoutput(s)andtheirdesiredvaluesBuildaconceptualandoperationalmodelofthesystem–buildarepresentationofinputs,entities,…12/13/202242MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionSimulationStudyIdentifyproblSimulationStudy(cont.)VerifyandValidate(asbestyoucan)theoperationalmodelagainstexistingsystem–onlypartialmodelverification/validationmaybepossiblefornewsystemsPerformscreeningexperiment(s)toidentifyIVswithsignificanteffectondesiredoutput(s)–proceedwithonlytheseIVsSelectrangesofIVswhichreducevariabilitytoacceptablelevels,ifnecessary(CriticalStep!!!)Experimentwithmodeltoidentifyvaluesofinputswhich“optimize”outputor“achieve”goalBuildsystemorprototypetotestresultsofstudy12/13/202243MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionSimulationStudy(cont.)VerifySystemDescription,Problem,Objectives,ProjectPlanVerbaldescription/linguisticanalysisIdentifyproblemsand/or(re)designobjectivesIdentifyingrelevantEntitiesAttributesEventsActivities/processes,andstatevariables toaddressproblem(s)and/orobjectivesDevelopprojectplan–mayfollowSTEPSFOREXPERIMENTALDESIGNinSchmidtandLaunsbyonpagesI-26andI-2712/13/202244MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionSystemDescription,Problem,OSimulationModelComponentsEntities:namedphysical/conceptualobjects(impropernounsusedforUMLclasses,propernounsforUMLobjects)Attributes:namedcharacteristicorproperty(adjectives)Methods:namedactivitiesoroperationstheentitycanperform(predicates=verb+direct/indirectobject(s))States:namedsetofconditions,standings,circumstances,andpositionsdescribinganentityataparticulartime(adjectives,verbalnouns=gerunds)Processes:namedgroupsofactivitiesEvents:namednoteworthyoccurrences,oftenatthebeginningorcompletionofoneormoreactivitiesand/orprocesses12/13/202245MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionSimulationModelComponentsEntIdentifyVariablesOutput(dependent)variableswhosevalueswillbetheproblemsolution/designimprovementOperationaldefinitionsRangeofvaluesAppropriateoutputanalysisTransientvs.steadystateStatisticaltools(confidenceintervals,t-tests,ANOVA,regression/modelbuilding)12/13/202246MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionIdentifyVariablesOutput(depeIdentifyVariables(cont.)FactorsamongwhosecombinationofvalueswillprovidetheproblemsolutionofoptimumdesignThesewillbevariedbytheinvestigatoraccordingtosomeexperimentaldesign(DOE)Operationaldefinitions,rangeofvalues,levelvalues,potentialinteractions(foreventualassignmenttoDOEcolumns)Factormodel:relatesfactorstooutputvariables–developedinmodelingexperiments12/13/202247MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionIdentifyVariables(cont.)FactIdentifyVariables(cont.)StatevariableswhosechangeofvaluesdeterminetheeventsOthervariablesnecessaryforacompletemodelIdentifystochasticvariablesandcollectdatatospecifytheirdistributionsIfclosetoknownmathematicaldistributionsthenidentifytheirparametersElseuseasempiricaldistributionsCollectdataforconstants–thesemayhavetobefittedfromthedata12/13/202248MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionIdentifyVariables(cont.)Stat(Re)ConceptualizeSimulationModelandCollectDataSimulationmodel:relatesallvariablestooutputvariablesRepresentationtools:naturalordomainspecificlanguage/jargonmathematicalnotationcode(e.g.,Java,GPSS)andpseudo-code(primitiveaction,choice,iteration)flowchartsUMLPERT/CPMdiagramspictorialimagesstoryboards/moviesBuildSimulationModelandtheSimulationitself12/13/202249MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.Introduction(Re)ConceptualizeSimulationMVerifyandValidateVerifythatcalculationsinimplementationarecorrectValidatetheresultsagainstoutputknowntobeanaccuratereflectionofrealityMayonlybepossibleforpartsofthemodelorhighlyrestrictedsituationsIfnotmake“reasonablenesschecks”12/13/202250MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionVerifyandValidateVerifythatDesignandConductExperimentalRunsDoexperimentsScreen:experimentalruns(2-level?)tofindthesignificantfewfactorsModel:furtherornewsetofexperimentalruns(3or5levels)todevelopfactormodelequationsfitequationsbyregressionOptimize:solveequationsforoptimumormakeexperimentalrunstodrilldowntobestcombinationsoffactorsCheck:localoptimum(simulateallneighbors)12/13/202251MPJ/UNMCS452/Mgt532I.IntroductionDesignandConductExperimentaSolutions/DesignIdentificationandReportFromsimulationrunsidentifythesolutiontotheproblemand/ortheoptimumdesignWriteReportAbstract(mayonlybeneededforresearchorarchivereports)ExecutiveSummary:non-technicalproblemstatement,solution/design,justification(notusuallyinresearchreports)TechnicalReport:completedetailssothatentireprojec