管理学课件第6章制定决策管理者工作的本质

Chapter6Decision-Making:TheEssenceoftheManager’sJob(制定决策：管理者工作的本质)1Chapter6Decision-Making:TheDecisionMakingDecision(定义)Makingachoicefromtwoormorealternatives.TheDecision-MakingProcess(决策过程)Identifyingaproblemanddecisioncriteriaandallocatingweightstothecriteria.Developing,analyzing,andselectinganalternativethatcanresolvetheproblem.Implementingtheselectedalternative.Evaluatingthedecision’seffectiveness.2DecisionMakingDecision(定义)2Exhibit6–1

TheDecision-MakingProcess3Exhibit6–1

TheDecision-MakinStep1:IdentifyingtheProblemProblemAdiscrepancybetweenanexistinganddesiredstateofaffairs.CharacteristicsofProblemsAproblembecomesaproblemwhenamanagerbecomesawareofit.Thereispressuretosolvetheproblem.Themanagermusthavetheauthority,information,orresourcesneededtosolvetheproblem.4Step1:IdentifyingtheProbleStep2:IdentifyingDecisionCriteriaDecisioncriteriaarefactorsthatareimportant(relevant)toresolvingtheproblem.Coststhatwillbeincurred(investmentsrequired)Riskslikelytobeencountered(chanceoffailure)Outcomesthataredesired(growthofthefirm)Step3:AllocatingWeightstotheCriteriaDecisioncriteriaarenotofequalimportance:Assigningaweighttoeachitemplacestheitemsinthecorrectpriorityorderoftheirimportanceinthedecisionmakingprocess.5Step2:IdentifyingDecisionCExhibit6–2 CriteriaandWeightsforComputerReplacementDecisionCriterion WeightMemoryandStorage 10Batterylife 8CarryingWeight 6Warranty 4DisplayQuality 36Exhibit6–2 CriteriaandWeighStep4:DevelopingAlternativesIdentifyingviablealternativesAlternativesarelisted(withoutevaluation)thatcanresolvetheproblem.Step5:AnalyzingAlternativesAppraisingeachalternative’sstrengthsandweaknessesAnalternative’sappraisalisbasedonitsabilitytoresolvetheissuesidentifiedinsteps2and3.7Step4:DevelopingAlternativeExhibit6–3 AssessedValuesofLaptopComputersUsingDecisionCriteria8Exhibit6–3 AssessedValuesofStep6:SelectinganAlternativeChoosingthebestalternativeThealternativewiththehighesttotalweightischosen.Step7:ImplementingtheAlternativePuttingthechosenalternativeintoaction.Conveyingthedecisiontoandgainingcommitmentfromthosewhowillcarryoutthedecision.9Step6:SelectinganAlternatiExhibit6–4 EvaluationofLaptopAlternativesAgainstWeightedCriteria10Exhibit6–4 EvaluationofLaptStep8:EvaluatingtheDecision’sEffectivenessThesoundnessofthedecisionisjudgedbyitsoutcomes.Howeffectivelywastheproblemresolvedbyoutcomesresultingfromthechosenalternatives?Iftheproblemwasnotresolved,whatwentwrong?11Step8:EvaluatingtheDecisioExhibit6–5 DecisionsintheManagementFunctions12Exhibit6–5 DecisionsintheMMakingDecisionsRationality（理性）Managersmakeconsistent,value-maximizingchoiceswithspecifiedconstraints.Assumptionsarethatdecisionmakers:Areperfectlyrational,fullyobjective,andlogical.Havecarefullydefinedtheproblemandidentifiedallviablealternatives.HaveaclearandspecificgoalWillselectthealternativethatmaximizesoutcomesintheorganization’sinterestsratherthanintheirpersonalinterests.13MakingDecisionsRationality（理性Exhibit6–6 AssumptionsofRationality14Exhibit6–6 AssumptionsofRatMakingDecisions(cont’d)BoundedRationality（有限理性）Managersmakedecisionsrationally,butarelimited(bounded)bytheirabilitytoprocessinformation.Assumptionsarethatdecisionmakers:WillnotseekoutorhaveknowledgeofallalternativesWillsatisfice—choosethefirstalternativeencounteredthatsatisfactorilysolvestheproblem—ratherthanmaximizetheoutcomeoftheirdecisionbyconsideringallalternativesandchoosingthebest.InfluenceondecisionmakingEscalationofcommitment

(承诺升级):anincreasedcommitmenttoapreviousdecisiondespiteevidencethatitmayhavebeenwrong.15MakingDecisions(cont’d)BoundTheRoleofIntuition（直觉的作用）Intuitivedecisionmaking（直觉决策）Makingdecisionsonthebasisofexperience,feelings,andaccumulatedjudgment.16TheRoleofIntuition（直觉的作用）16Exhibit6–7 WhatisIntuition?Source:BasedonL.A.BurkeandM.K.Miller,“TakingtheMysteryOutofIntuitiveDecisionMaking,”AcademyofManagementExecutive,October1999,pp.91–99.17Exhibit6–7 WhatisIntuition?TypesofProblemsandDecisionsStructuredProblems（结构良好的问题）Involvegoalsthatclear.Arefamiliar(haveoccurredbefore).Areeasilyandcompletelydefined—informationabouttheproblemisavailableandcomplete.ProgrammedDecision（程序化决策）Arepetitivedecisionthatcanbehandledbyaroutineapproach.18TypesofProblemsandDecisionTypesofProgrammedDecisionsPolicyAgeneralguidelineformakingadecisionaboutastructuredproblem.ProcedureAseriesofinterrelatedstepsthatamanagercanusetorespond(applyingapolicy)toastructuredproblem.RuleAnexplicitstatementthatlimitswhatamanageroremployeecanorcannotdo.19TypesofProgrammedDecisionsPPolicy,Procedure,andRuleExamplesPolicyAcceptallcustomer-returnedmerchandise.ProcedureFollowallstepsforcompletingmerchandisereturndocumentation.RulesManagersmustapproveallrefundsover$50.00.Nocreditpurchasesarerefundedforcash.20Policy,Procedure,andRuleExProblemsandDecisions(cont’d)UnstructuredProblems（结构不良的问题）Problemsthatareneworunusualandforwhichinformationisambiguousorincomplete.Problemsthatwillrequirecustom-madesolutions.NonprogrammedDecisions（非程序化决策）Decisionsthatareuniqueandnonrecurring.Decisionsthatgenerateuniqueresponses.21ProblemsandDecisions(cont’d问题类型、决策类型和组织层次程序化决策非程序化决策组织层次顶层底层结构良好的结构不良的问题类型©PrenticeHall,20026-2222问题类型、决策类型和组织层次程序化决策非程序化决策组织层次顶Exhibit6–8 ProgrammedversusNonprogrammedDecisions23Exhibit6–8 Programmedversus1、个体决策2、群体决策相对于个人决策，群体决策有一些优点：(1)能更大范围地汇总信息；(2)能拟订更多的备选方案；(3)能得到更多的认同；(4)能更好地沟通；(5)能作出更好的决策等。但群体决策也有一些缺点，如花费较多的时间（群体决策的效率较低）、产生“从众现象”，以及责任不明等。适用范围对于复杂、重要和需有关人员广泛接受的决策问题，组织最好要采取群体的方式来制定决策。按决策者分类

在实践中，群体决策往往转换为一系列个体决策来求解。241、个体决策相对于个人决策，群体决策有一些优点：(1Decision-MakingConditionsCertainty（确定性）Asituationinwhichamanagercanmakeanaccuratedecisionbecausetheoutcomeofeveryalternativechoiceisknown.Risk（风险性）Asituationinwhichthemanagerisabletoestimatethelikelihood(probability)ofoutcomesthatresultfromthechoiceofparticularalternatives.Uncertainty（不确定性）25Decision-MakingConditionsCert确定型、风险型、非确定型决策确定型决策（Certainty）备选方案只存在一种自然状态的决策。风险型决策（Risk

）备选方案存在两种或两种以上自然状态，每种自然状态发生的概率可以估计的决策。非确定型决策（Uncertainty

）

备选方案存在两种或两种以上自然状态，每种自然状态发生的概率无法估计的决策。26确定型、风险型、非确定型决策确定型决策备选方案只存在一种自然确定性决策方法－－盈亏平衡分析盈亏平衡点：企业经营活动处于不盈也不亏状态的保本点。

利润=总收入–总成本其中：总收入=销售价格(P)*产销量(Q)总成本与产销量有关总成本：包括固定成本（在一定期间内，当企业产销量变化时其总额保持不变的成本，如机器的折旧等）和变动成本

（指随产销量的增加而同步增加的费用或成本。如直接人工费、原材料消耗等费用）27确定性决策方法－－盈亏平衡分析盈亏平衡点：企业经营活动处于产销量固定成本

变动成本总成本成本028产销量固定成本变动成本总成本成本028例题的图解

1045000产销量（千台）金额（万元）13销售收入总成本固定成本29例题的图解1045000产销量（千台）金额（万元）13销总成本与单位产品成本利润＝产销量*单价–产销量*单位变动成本–固定成本＝QP–QCV–F

＝Q(P–CV)–F式中P–CV为单位（产品）的贡献毛收益，即产品销售单价超过单位变动成本的部分

由QP–QCV–F＝0推导可得（此时盈亏相平）：

Q＝盈亏平衡点产销量＝

30总成本与单位产品成本利润＝产销量*单价–产销量*单位变动成

[分析]

是否同意接受该外商的订贷，要看降低了售价后是否还能给企业带来利润。

[可能的错误是]：内销产品单位贡献毛收益为100-60=40元，外销产品单位贡献毛收益为75—50=25元，不合算。外销产品的利润为25*2-250=-200，更不合算。但是，实际上这家企业生产所投的固定成本已在内销产品中得到全额补偿并有盈余70万元，所以接受外商订货可使企业再净赚利润50万元。可见，要是这家企业没有其他更好的销售机会，应该作出接受外销订货、增加产销量的决策。[例]假设某电子器件厂的主产品的生产能力为10万件，固定成本总额为250万元，单位变动成本为60元。已有国内订单共8万件，单价为100元。最近有一外商要求订货，但他出的单价仅为75元，订量2万件，并自己承担运输费用。由于这外销的2万件不需要企业支出推销费和运输费，这样可使单位变动成本降至50元。该厂是否接受外商的订货呢？31[分析]是否同意接受该外商的订贷，要看降低了售价后是否还风险型决策方法－－决策树法[例]某公司为投产某种新产品拟定两个方案：一是建设规模较大的工厂，另一是建设规模比较小的工厂。假设两者的使用期一样，但建大厂需投资30万元，建小厂只需投资20万元。这种新产品未来的销路有好坏两种情况，它们出现的概率分别为0.7和0.3，相应的损益值预测结果是：若采纳建大厂方案，如果销路好，则生产经营这种新产品能带来100万元的收益，但如果遇到销路差的情况，则要损失20万元；若采纳建小厂的方案，如果销路好，经营收益能达到40万元，而如果销路差，则只有30万元的收益。试问哪一种方案更可取?32风险型决策方法－－决策树法[例]某公司为投产某种新产品拟定用决策树的方法比较和评价不同方案的经济效果，需要进行以下几个步骤的工作：

(1)根据决策备选方案的数目和对未来环境状态的了解，绘出决策树图形。

(2)计算各个方案的期望收益值。首先计算方案各状态枝的期望值（用方案在各种自然状态下的损益值去分别乘以各自然状态出现的概率）然后将各状态枝的期望收益值累加，求出每个方案的期望收益值。33用决策树的方法比较和评价不同方案的经济效果，决策树这是一种以树形图来辅助进行各方案期望收益的计算和比较的决策方法。决策树的基本形状如下图所示。34决策树3412-30-206437销路好P1=0.7销路好P1=0.7销路差P2=0.3销路差P2=0.3100万元-20万元40万元30万元建大厂需投资30万元，建小厂只需投资20万元新产品未来销路好坏出现的概率分别为0.7和0.3若建大厂，销路好，100万元的收益，销路差，损失20万元；若建小厂，销路好，40万元的收益，销路差，30万元的收益3512-30-206437销路好P1=0.7销路好P1=0.7Exhibit6–9 ExpectedValueforRevenuesfromtheAdditionofOneSkiLift（Robbins）

Expected

Expected × Probability = ValueofEach

Event Revenues AlternativeHeavysnowfall $850,000 0.3 = $255,000Normalsnowfall 725,000 0.5 = 362,500Lightsnowfall 350,000 0.2 = 70,000

$687,50036Exhibit6–9 ExpectedValueforDecision-MakingConditionsUncertainty（不确定性决策方法）Limitedinformationpreventsestimationofoutcomeprobabilitiesforalternativesassociatedwiththeproblemandmayforcemanagerstorelyonintuition,hunches,and“gutfeelings”.Maximax（最大最大选择）:theoptimisticmanager’schoicetomaximizethemaximumpayoffMaximin（最大最小选择）:thepessimisticmanager’schoicetomaximizetheminimumpayoffMinimax（最小化其最大遗憾）:themanager’schoicetominimizemaximumregret.37Decision-MakingConditionsUnceExhibit6–10 PayoffMatrix38Exhibit6–10 PayoffMatrix3815第3方案28第4方案相对收益最大值及选取的方案1428281418A41524152124A391818159A21114111413A1悲观准则（Y）乐观准则（X）B3B2B1

B企业可能的反应A企业的策略A企业在对手三种不同反击策略下的收益状态及方案选择391528相对收益最大值1428281418A41524152最大后悔值最小化准则

考虑到决策者在选定某一方案并付诸实施后，如果在未来实际遇到的自然状态并不与决策时的判断相吻合，这就意味着当初如果选取其他的方案反而会使企业得到更好的收益。

这种情况无形中表明，这次决策存在一种机会损失，它构成了决策的“遗憾值”，或称“后悔值”。这里，“后悔”的意思是：你选择了一种方案，实际上就放弃了其他方案可能增加的收益。所以，决策者将为此而感到后悔。“最大后悔值”最小化决策准则就是一种力求使每一种方案选择的最大后悔值达到尽量小的决策方法。40最大后悔值最小化准则考虑到决策者在选定某一方案并付最大后悔值最小化准则习题分析

7A4

最大后悔值中的最小值及选取的决策方案282124相对收益最大值7076281418A4131300152124A3151061518159A21717711111413A128-B321-B224-B1最大后悔值B3B2B1

B企业的可能反应A企业的策略41最大后悔值最小化准则习题分析7最大后悔值中的最小值2821Decision-MakingStyles（决策方式）DimensionsofDecision-MakingStylesWaysofthinking（思维方式）－理性的与直觉的不同Rational,orderly,andconsistentIntuitive,creative,anduniqueToleranceforambiguity（模糊承受力）－一致型和某种顺序的需要与同时处理许多不同想法的不同Lowtolerance:requireconsistencyandorderHightolerance:multiplethoughtssimultaneously42Decision-MakingStyles（决策方式）DiDecision-MakingStyles(cont’d)TypesofDecisionMakersDirective（命令型）－快速、有效率的、有逻辑的Useminimalinformationandconsiderfewalternatives.Analytic（分析型）－谨慎，具有适应和处理新情况的能力Makecarefuldecisionsinuniquesituations.Conceptual（概念型）－能够寻求解决问题的创造性方案Maintainabroadoutlookandconsidermanyalternativesinmakingdecisions.Behavioral（行为型）－寻找决策的接受Avoidconflictbyworkingwellwithothersandbeingreceptivetosuggestions.43Decision-MakingStyles(cont’dExhibit6–12 Decision-MakingMatrix44Exhibit6–12 Decision-MakingMExhibit6–13 CommonDecision-MakingErrorsandBiases45Exhibit6–13 CommonDecision-MDecision-MakingBiasesandErrorsHeuristics（启发法）Using“rulesofthumb”tosimplifydecisionmaking.OverconfidenceBias（自负）Holdingunrealisticallypositiveviewsofone’sselfandone’sperformance.ImmediateGratificationBias（即时满足）Choosingalternativesthatofferimmediaterewardsandthattoavoidimmediatecosts.46Decision-MakingBiasesandErrDecision-MakingBiasesandErrors(cont’d)AnchoringEffect（锚定效应）Fixatingoninitialinformationandignoringsubsequentinformation.SelectivePerceptionBias（选择性认知）Selectingorganizingandinterpretingeventsbasedonthedecisionmaker’sbiasedperceptions.ConfirmationBias（证实）Seekingoutinformationthatreaffirmspastchoicesanddiscountingcontradictoryinformation.47Decision-MakingBiasesandErrDecision-MakingBiasesandErrors(cont’d)FramingBias（取景效应）Selectingandhighlightingcertainaspectsofasituationwhileignoringotheraspects.AvailabilityBias（可获得性）Losingdecision-makingobjectivitybyfocusingonthemostrecentevents.RepresentationBias（典型性）Drawinganalogiesandseeingidenticalsituationswhennoneexist.RandomnessBias（随机性）Creatingunfoundedmeaningoutofrandomevents.48Decision-MakingBiasesandErrDecision-MakingBiasesandErrors(cont’d)SunkCostsErrors（沉没成本）Forgettingthatcurrentactionscannotinfluencepasteventsandrelateonlytofutureconsequences.Self-ServingBias（自利性）Takingquickcreditforsuccessesandblamingoutsidefactorsforfailures.HindsightBias（后见）Mistakenlybelievingthataneventcouldhavebeenpredictedoncetheactualoutcomeisknown(after-the-fact).49Decision-MakingBiasesandErrExhibit6–14 OverviewofManagerialDecisionMaking50Exhibit6–14 OverviewofManagDecisionMakingforToday’sWorldGuidelinesformakingeffectivedecisions:Understandculturaldifferences.Knowwhenit’stimetocallitquits.Useaneffectivedecision-makingprocess.Habitsofhighlyreliableorganizations(HROs)（高可靠性组织）Arenottrickedbytheirsuccess.Defertotheexpertsonthefrontline.Letunexpectedcircumstancesprovidethesolution.Embracecomplexity.Anticipate,butalsoanticipatetheirlimits.51DecisionMakingforToday’sWoCharacteristicsofanEffectiveDecision-MakingProcessItfocusesonwhatisimportant.Itislogicalandconsistent.Itacknowledgesbothsubjectiveandobjectivethinkingandblendsanalyticalwithintuitivethinking.Itrequiresonlyasmuchinformationandanalysisasisnecessarytoresolveaparticulardilemma.Itencouragesandguidesthegatheringofrelevantinformationandinformedopinion.Itisstraightforward,reliable,easytouse,andflexible.52CharacteristicsofanEffectivChapter6Decision-Making:TheEssenceoftheManager’sJob(制定决策：管理者工作的本质)53Chapter6Decision-Making:TheDecisionMakingDecision(定义)Makingachoicefromtwoormorealternatives.TheDecision-MakingProcess(决策过程)Identifyingaproblemanddecisioncriteriaandallocatingweightstothecriteria.Developing,analyzing,andselectinganalternativethatcanresolvetheproblem.Implementingtheselectedalternative.Evaluatingthedecision’seffectiveness.54DecisionMakingDecision(定义)2Exhibit6–1

TheDecision-MakingProcess55Exhibit6–1

TheDecision-MakinStep1:IdentifyingtheProblemProblemAdiscrepancybetweenanexistinganddesiredstateofaffairs.CharacteristicsofProblemsAproblembecomesaproblemwhenamanagerbecomesawareofit.Thereispressuretosolvetheproblem.Themanagermusthavetheauthority,information,orresourcesneededtosolvetheproblem.56Step1:IdentifyingtheProbleStep2:IdentifyingDecisionCriteriaDecisioncriteriaarefactorsthatareimportant(relevant)toresolvingtheproblem.Coststhatwillbeincurred(investmentsrequired)Riskslikelytobeencountered(chanceoffailure)Outcomesthataredesired(growthofthefirm)Step3:AllocatingWeightstotheCriteriaDecisioncriteriaarenotofequalimportance:Assigningaweighttoeachitemplacestheitemsinthecorrectpriorityorderoftheirimportanceinthedecisionmakingprocess.57Step2:IdentifyingDecisionCExhibit6–2 CriteriaandWeightsforComputerReplacementDecisionCriterion WeightMemoryandStorage 10Batterylife 8CarryingWeight 6Warranty 4DisplayQuality 358Exhibit6–2 CriteriaandWeighStep4:DevelopingAlternativesIdentifyingviablealternativesAlternativesarelisted(withoutevaluation)thatcanresolvetheproblem.Step5:AnalyzingAlternativesAppraisingeachalternative’sstrengthsandweaknessesAnalternative’sappraisalisbasedonitsabilitytoresolvetheissuesidentifiedinsteps2and3.59Step4:DevelopingAlternativeExhibit6–3 AssessedValuesofLaptopComputersUsingDecisionCriteria60Exhibit6–3 AssessedValuesofStep6:SelectinganAlternativeChoosingthebestalternativeThealternativewiththehighesttotalweightischosen.Step7:ImplementingtheAlternativePuttingthechosenalternativeintoaction.Conveyingthedecisiontoandgainingcommitmentfromthosewhowillcarryoutthedecision.61Step6:SelectinganAlternatiExhibit6–4 EvaluationofLaptopAlternativesAgainstWeightedCriteria62Exhibit6–4 EvaluationofLaptStep8:EvaluatingtheDecision’sEffectivenessThesoundnessofthedecisionisjudgedbyitsoutcomes.Howeffectivelywastheproblemresolvedbyoutcomesresultingfromthechosenalternatives?Iftheproblemwasnotresolved,whatwentwrong?63Step8:EvaluatingtheDecisioExhibit6–5 DecisionsintheManagementFunctions64Exhibit6–5 DecisionsintheMMakingDecisionsRationality（理性）Managersmakeconsistent,value-maximizingchoiceswithspecifiedconstraints.Assumptionsarethatdecisionmakers:Areperfectlyrational,fullyobjective,andlogical.Havecarefullydefinedtheproblemandidentifiedallviablealternatives.HaveaclearandspecificgoalWillselectthealternativethatmaximizesoutcomesintheorganization’sinterestsratherthanintheirpersonalinterests.65MakingDecisionsRationality（理性Exhibit6–6 AssumptionsofRationality66Exhibit6–6 AssumptionsofRatMakingDecisions(cont’d)BoundedRationality（有限理性）Managersmakedecisionsrationally,butarelimited(bounded)bytheirabilitytoprocessinformation.Assumptionsarethatdecisionmakers:WillnotseekoutorhaveknowledgeofallalternativesWillsatisfice—choosethefirstalternativeencounteredthatsatisfactorilysolvestheproblem—ratherthanmaximizetheoutcomeoftheirdecisionbyconsideringallalternativesandchoosingthebest.InfluenceondecisionmakingEscalationofcommitment

(承诺升级):anincreasedcommitmenttoapreviousdecisiondespiteevidencethatitmayhavebeenwrong.67MakingDecisions(cont’d)BoundTheRoleofIntuition（直觉的作用）Intuitivedecisionmaking（直觉决策）Makingdecisionsonthebasisofexperience,feelings,andaccumulatedjudgment.68TheRoleofIntuition（直觉的作用）16Exhibit6–7 WhatisIntuition?Source:BasedonL.A.BurkeandM.K.Miller,“TakingtheMysteryOutofIntuitiveDecisionMaking,”AcademyofManagementExecutive,October1999,pp.91–99.69Exhibit6–7 WhatisIntuition?TypesofProblemsandDecisionsStructuredProblems（结构良好的问题）Involvegoalsthatclear.Arefamiliar(haveoccurredbefore).Areeasilyandcompletelydefined—informationabouttheproblemisavailableandcomplete.ProgrammedDecision（程序化决策）Arepetitivedecisionthatcanbehandledbyaroutineapproach.70TypesofProblemsandDecisionTypesofProgrammedDecisionsPolicyAgeneralguidelineformakingadecisionaboutastructuredproblem.ProcedureAseriesofinterrelatedstepsthatamanagercanusetorespond(applyingapolicy)toastructuredproblem.RuleAnexplicitstatementthatlimitswhatamanageroremployeecanorcannotdo.71TypesofProgrammedDecisionsPPolicy,Procedure,andRuleExamplesPolicyAcceptallcustomer-returnedmerchandise.ProcedureFollowallstepsforcompletingmerchandisereturndocumentation.RulesManagersmustapproveallrefundsover$50.00.Nocreditpurchasesarerefundedforcash.72Policy,Procedure,andRuleExProblemsandDecisions(cont’d)UnstructuredProblems（结构不良的问题）Problemsthatareneworunusualandforwhichinformationisambiguousorincomplete.Problemsthatwillrequirecustom-madesolutions.NonprogrammedDecisions（非程序化决策）Decisionsthatareuniqueandnonrecurring.Decisionsthatgenerateuniqueresponses.73ProblemsandDecisions(cont’d问题类型、决策类型和组织层次程序化决策非程序化决策组织层次顶层底层结构良好的结构不良的问题类型©PrenticeHall,20026-7474问题类型、决策类型和组织层次程序化决策非程序化决策组织层次顶Exhibit6–8 ProgrammedversusNonprogrammedDecisions75Exhibit6–8 Programmedversus1、个体决策2、群体决策相对于个人决策，群体决策有一些优点：(1)能更大范围地汇总信息；(2)能拟订更多的备选方案；(3)能得到更多的认同；(4)能更好地沟通；(5)能作出更好的决策等。但群体决策也有一些缺点，如花费较多的时间（群体决策的效率较低）、产生“从众现象”，以及责任不明等。适用范围对于复杂、重要和需有关人员广泛接受的决策问题，组织最好要采取群体的方式来制定决策。按决策者分类

在实践中，群体决策往往转换为一系列个体决策来求解。761、个体决策相对于个人决策，群体决策有一些优点：(1Decision-MakingConditionsCertainty（确定性）Asituationinwhichamanagercanmakeanaccuratedecisionbecausetheoutcomeofeveryalternativechoiceisknown.Risk（风险性）Asituationinwhichthemanagerisabletoestimatethelikelihood(probability)ofoutcomesthatresultfromthechoiceofparticularalternatives.Uncertainty（不确定性）77Decision-MakingConditionsCert确定型、风险型、非确定型决策确定型决策（Certainty）备选方案只存在一种自然状态的决策。风险型决策（Risk

）备选方案存在两种或两种以上自然状态，每种自然状态发生的概率可以估计的决策。非确定型决策（Uncertainty

）

备选方案存在两种或两种以上自然状态，每种自然状态发生的概率无法估计的决策。78确定型、风险型、非确定型决策确定型决策备选方案只存在一种自然确定性决策方法－－盈亏平衡分析盈亏平衡点：企业经营活动处于不盈也不亏状态的保本点。

利润=总收入–总成本其中：总收入=销售价格(P)*产销量(Q)总成本与产销量有关总成本：包括固定成本（在一定期间内，当企业产销量变化时其总额保持不变的成本，如机器的折旧等）和变动成本

（指随产销量的增加而同步增加的费用或成本。如直接人工费、原材料消耗等费用）79确定性决策方法－－盈亏平衡分析盈亏平衡点：企业经营活动处于产销量固定成本

变动成本总成本成本080产销量固定成本变动成本总成本成本028例题的图解

1045000产销量（千台）金额（万元）13销售收入总成本固定成本81例题的图解1045000产销量（千台）金额（万元）13销总成本与单位产品成本利润＝产销量*单价–产销量*单位变动成本–固定成本＝QP–QCV–F

＝Q(P–CV)–F式中P–CV为单位（产品）的贡献毛收益，即产品销售单价超过单位变动成本的部分

由QP–QCV–F＝0推导可得（此时盈亏相平）：

Q＝盈亏平衡点产销量＝

82总成本与单位产品成本利润＝产销量*单价–产销量*单位变动成

[分析]

是否同意接受该外商的订贷，要看降低了售价后是否还能给企业带来利润。

[可能的错误是]：内销产品单位贡献毛收益为100-60=40元，外销产品单位贡献毛收益为75—50=25元，不合算。外销产品的利润为25*2-250=-200，更不合算。但是，实际上这家企业生产所投的固定成本已在内销产品中得到全额补偿并有盈余70万元，所以接受外商订货可使企业再净赚利润50万元。可见，要是这家企业没有其他更好的销售机会，应该作出接受外销订货、增加产销量的决策。[例]假设某电子器件厂的主产品的生产能力为10万件，固定成本总额为250万元，单位变动成本为60元。已有国内订单共8万件，单价为100元。最近有一外商要求订货，但他出的单价仅为75元，订量2万件，并自己承担运输费用。由于这外销的2万件不需要企业支出推销费和运输费，这样可使单位变动成本降至50元。该厂是否接受外商的订货呢？83[分析]是否同意接受该外商的订贷，要看降低了售价后是否还风险型决策方法－－决策树法[例]某公司为投产某种新产品拟定两个方案：一是建设规模较大的工厂，另一是建设规模比较小的工厂。假设两者的使用期一样，但建大厂需投资30万元，建小厂只需投资20万元。这种新产品未来的销路有好坏两种情况，它们出现的概率分别为0.7和0.3，相应的损益值预测结果是：若采纳建大厂方案，如果销路好，则生产经营这种新产品能带来100万元的收益，但如果遇到销路差的情况，则要损失20万元；若采纳建小厂的方案，如果销路好，经营收益能达到40万元，而如果销路差，则只有30万元的收益。试问哪一种方案更可取?84风险型决策方法－－决策树法[例]某公司为投产某种新产品拟定用决策树的方法比较和评价不同方案的经济效果，需要进行以下几个步骤的工作：

(1)根据决策备选方案的数目和对未来环境状态的了解，绘出决策树图形。

(2)计算各个方案的期望收益值。首先计算方案各状态枝的期望值（用方案在各种自然状态下的损益值去分别乘以各自然状态出现的概率）然后将各状态枝的期望收益值累加，求出每个方案的期望收益值。85用决策树的方法比较和评价不同方案的经济效果，决策树这是一种以树形图来辅助进行各方案期望收益的计算和比较的决策方法。决策树的基本形状如下图所示。86决策树3412-30-206437销路好P1=0.7销路好P1=0.7销路差P2=0.3销路差P2=0.3100万元-20万元40万元30万元建大厂需投资30万元，建小厂只需投资20万元新产品未来销路好坏出现的概率分别为0.7和0.3若建大厂，销路好，100万元的收益，销路差，损失20万元；若建小厂，销路好，40万元的收益，销路差，30万元的收益8712-30-206437销路好P1=0.7销路好P1=0.7Exhibit6–9 ExpectedValueforRevenuesfromtheAdditionofOneSkiLift（Robbins）

Expected

Expected × Probability = ValueofEach

Event Revenues AlternativeHeavysnowfall $850,000 0.3 = $255,000Normalsnowfall 725,000 0.5 = 362,500Lightsnowfall 350,000 0.2 = 70,000

$687,50088Exhibit6–9 ExpectedValueforDecision-MakingConditionsUncertainty（不确定性决策方法）Limitedinformationpreventsestimationofoutcomeprobabilitiesforalternativesassociatedwiththeproblemandmayforcemanagerstorelyonintuition,hunches,and“gutfeelings”.Maximax（最大最大选择）:theoptimisticmanager’schoicetomaximizethemaximumpayoffMaximin（最大最小选择）:thepessimisticmanager’schoicetomaximizetheminimumpayoffMinimax（最小化其最大遗憾）:themanager’schoicetominimizemaximumregret.89Decision-MakingConditionsUnceExhibit6–10 PayoffMatrix90Exhibit6–10 PayoffMatrix3815第3方案28第4方案相对收益最大值及选取的方案1428281418A41524152124A391818159A21114111413A1悲观准则（Y）乐观准则（X）B3B2B1

B企业可能的反应A企业的策略A企业在对手三种不同反击策略下的收益状态及方案选择911528相对收益最大值1428281418A41524152最大后悔值最小化准则

考虑到决策者在选定某一方案并付诸实施后，如果在未来实际遇到的自然状态并不与决策时的判断相吻合，这就意味着当初如果选取其他的方案反而会使企业得到更好的收益。

这种情况无形中表明，这次决策存在一种机会损失，它构成了决策的“遗憾值”，或称“后悔值”。这里，“后悔”的意思是：你选择了一种方案，实际上就放弃了其他方案可能增加的收益。所以，决策者将为此而感到后悔。“最大后悔值”最小化决策准则就是一种力求使每一种方案选择的最大后悔值达到尽量小的决策方法。92最大后悔值最小化准则考虑到决策者在选定某一方案并付最大后悔值最小化准则习题分析

7A4

最大后悔值中的最小值及选取的决策方案282124相对收益最大值7076281418A4131300152124A3151061518159A21717711111413A128-B321-B224-B1最大后悔值B3B2B1

B企业的可能反应A企业的策略93最大后悔值最小化准则习题分析7最大后悔值中的最小值2821Decision-MakingStyles（决策方式）DimensionsofDecision-MakingStylesWaysofthinking（思维方式）－理性的与直觉的不同Rational,orderly,andconsistentIntuitive,creative,anduniqueToleranceforambiguity（模糊承受力）－一致型和某种顺序的需要与同时处理许多不同想法的不同Lowtolerance:requireconsistencyandorderHightolerance:multiplethoughtssimultaneously94Decision-MakingStyles（决策方式）DiDecision-MakingStyles(cont’d)TypesofDecisionMakersDirective（命令型）－快速、有效率的、有逻辑的Useminimalinformationandconsiderfewalternatives.Analytic（分析型）－谨慎，具有适应和处理新情况的能力Makecarefuldecisionsinuniquesituations.Conceptual（概念型）－能够寻求解决问题的创造性方案Maintainabroadoutlookandconsidermanyalternativesinmakingdecisions.Behavioral（行为型）－寻找决策的接受Avoidconflictbyworkingwellwithothersandbeingreceptivetosuggestions.95Decision-MakingStyles(cont’dExhibit