如何分析并作出正确的决策HowToAutomateSm

HowToAutomateSmartDecisionMakingwithBI&AnalyticsMarkSmith–CEO&EVPResearch©2006,VentanaResearch,Inc.AgendaWhatis"decisionmanagementtechnology"Whatkindsofdecisionsshouldnotbeautomated?Whatarerule-basedsystemsandwhyaretheyadvantageous?What'saremainthedifferencesbetweenBI,AnalyticsandDecisionManagement?Howaretheabovepractices/technologiesmeasured?2©2006,VentanaResearch,Inc.ExcessiveFocusonUnderstanding:

RearView,HistoricalPerspective3©2006,VentanaResearch,Inc.PerformanceManagementProvidesEmphasisonImprovementandAutomationofDecisionsAmethodologythatexaminesthepeople,process,informationandtechnologyandaprocessthatalignsbusinessandtechnologytoimproveresults.PerformanceManagementProcessUnderstand–Comprehendthestatusofpeople,organizationandbusinessprocesses.Optimize–Planforfutureactionsanddecisionsthatcanachievetheobjectivesandgoals.Align–Communicateandprovideguidance,objectives,goalsandincentives.VentanaResearchPerformanceCycle™PerformanceManagement4©2006,VentanaResearch,Inc.DecisionManagementImprovebusinessdecisionsthroughdesign,deploymentandrefinementofoperationaldecisionmakingproceduresDecisionManagementhelpsenterprisemakebetter,moreconsistentbusinessdecisionsMaximizerevenue,minimizecosts,streamlinebusinessprocessesViaWeb,OLTP,callcenter,andbatchapplicationsAgileevolutionofdecisionmakingtomeetnewbusinesschallengesGivedataanalysts,businesspolicymakers,

corporateportfoliomanagers,anditimplementers

toolstounderstandanduseeachothersinformationUseanalysisofthepasttomodifydecisionstrategies

inthepresenttocorrectlymanage

andguidefutureactivitiesWhatisIt?5©2006,VentanaResearch,Inc.DecisionManagementExamplesCustomermanagementdecisionshowtohandleparticularrequestsforservices,howtotreatcustomersincollections,whethertoincreaseexposuretocurrentcustomersthroughadditionalcreditoffers,etc.Supplierselectiondecisionswhichsuppliertouseforagivenorderofpartsbasedoncost,pastdeliveryhistory,customerpreferences,etc.Advertiserselectiondecisionswhichadvertisershouldbeselectedforagivenadvertisementopportunitygivenexistingcontracts,typeofopportunity,recentlyshownads,etc.Auditselectiondecisionswhichtaxpayersshouldbeselectedforauditinggivenexperiencewithpreviousaudits,pastfilings,currentpolicies,etc.6©2006,VentanaResearch,Inc.ExaminingDecisionCyclesforAutomation1-Recognize

Threat/Opp.3-SetGoals/

Objectives2-Understand

Factors4-Devise

Solutions5-Compare

Solutions6-Decide

onActionPlan7-ExecuteActionPlan8-Review

ActionresultsInformation

AcquisitionGoal

SettingDecisionMakingAction

CoordinationAreasoffacilitationofthedecisionmakingprocessAutomated

Decision

SystemsTraditional

BIuse7©2006,VentanaResearch,Inc.DecisionManagementandAutomationAutomateddoesnotmeanlightsoutDecisionreviewsometimeoralwaysrequiredDecisionexceptionmanagementRulesenginemaintenanceandupdatesInputAutomated

DecisionsModels/RulesReviewsExceptions8©2006,VentanaResearch,Inc.ApplicationorUserrequestingadecisionDecisionManagementFrameworkDecisionManagementApplicationorInterfacePredictive

ModelsDevelopment

EnvironmentBusinessRuleEngineData

SourcesThirdPartyApplicationsorInterfacesRepository9©2006,VentanaResearch,Inc.BusinessRules–DecisionManagementRulesareconditionalstatementsofhowtorespondtodataoreventswithabusinesstransactionIfFerrariis$30,thenbuyquicklyBusinessrulestakemanyformsPolicies,practices,andproceduresyouusetomakeoperationaldecisionsStrategiesbasedonhistoricaldataandbusinessacumenDecisionTreesDecisionTablesRulescarryoutactionssuggestedbymodelingandoptimizationstrategiesBusinessrulesarefoundinyourcompanypolicymanuals,inlinesofcodeinlegacysystems,interdepartmentalmemos,andinthemindsofyourexperiencedemployees10©2006,VentanaResearch,Inc.BusinessRules–DecisionManagementRulesEnginesEvolutionofExpertsystemsTwostepprocessCreaterulesusingexpertsDeploytherulesetWhat’snewGraphicaldevelopmentandadministrationMatureruledevelopmentenvironmentsRobustplatformsIntegrationwithcomplimentarytechnologiesAccessibletobusinessmanagers/non-technologistsIndustryexperiencewithsuccessandfailure11©2006,VentanaResearch,Inc.PredictiveModeling–DecisionManagementPredictiveModelingAppliedstatisticsandotherdataminingapproachesRegression/NeuralNetworksClassification,Segmentation2stepprocessCreatethemodel,usethemodelWhat’snewImproved,graphicaluserinterfacesAutomationofmodelcreationIntegrationwithrulesenginesIndustryexperiencewithsuccessandfailure12©2006,VentanaResearch,Inc.DecisionManagement-MaturityCurveBusinessRules

AutomationLeveragedExpertise

AutomatedDecisions

NoOptimizationDecisionRefinementLeveragedExpertise

AutomatedDecisions

ManualTuningAdaptiveControlAutomatedaccess

AutomatedprocessingDecisionTesting

ManualTuningPredictiveModelingAutomatedaccess

AutomatedprocessingDecisionTesting

PredictiveModelsManual

analysisManualdecisionsDecisionOptimizationAutomatedaccess

AutomatedprocessingRoutedDecisions

PredictiveModelsManual

analysisManualdecisions13©2006,VentanaResearch,Inc.DecisionManagementApplicationNeedsE-Commercenowadrivingfactorinreal-timetransactions$80Bannualrunrate(Q4CY2004)(USCensusBureau)+29%fromQ3CY20042%oftotalUSsalesRetailingMerchantSurveyAmongTop5keysellingtoolsCross-sell/Up-sell,Promotions,Sales/SpecialsCommerceFraud2004On-linecommercefraudlosses$2.6B(CyberSourcesurvey)2004On-linelossesgrowth25%-30%growthexpectedManualreviewincreasedSpeedofe-commerceInteractivetransactionratesnow10-20secondsforleadingsites(Keynote)Skillsandturnoverofworkforce10%-30%turnover(CallCenterMgmtReview)14©2006,VentanaResearch,Inc.BestPracticesinIdentificationof

DecisionManagementHighdecisionvolumeManualoversightisnottechnicallyoreconomicallyfeasible.PotentialforrespectivecostsavingsorincrementalrevenueInconsistentworkforcedecisionskillsHighemployeeturnoverLowpositioncompensationNeedforself-serviceBusinessdemandapresenceonthewebServicesrequireinstantdecisionmakingonpricing,packaging,deliveryandotherfacets.Web-sitevisitorsexpectinstantresponse.PastindicatesthefutureDecisioninput/outcomerelationshipcanbemeasuredandmodeledDecisionsconsistentovertimeInternetisakeybusinessenablerCustomers,andemployeesexpectfast,high-valueinteractionsComparableperformance,personalizationandaccommodationareacriticalsuccessfactorforyourbusiness.15©2006,VentanaResearch,Inc.ConvergingTechnologiesfromBusinessIntelligencetoDecisionManagementTools&ApplicationsMonitoring&AlertingPlatformandServerTechnologyDashboard&ScorecardInformationManagement&MasterDataMgtAnalytics&LocationReporting&VisualizationIntegrationManagement(Application,Data&Info.)1995-2004Query&AnalysisPlatformsReportingModeling&AnalyticsRules&WorkflowMasterDataManagement2006-Rules&WorkflowDataMining&Modeling16©2006,VentanaResearch,Inc.Business

UnderstandingDecisionManagementEnables

PerformanceManagementPerformance

ManagementShrinking

ResponseTimeInconsistentDecisionMakingLimited

Decision

CompetenceDecision

RiskDecisionMgtBenefitsEncodedDecisionProcessImproved

ROIFacilitated

DecisionsAutomatedDecisions17©2006,VentanaResearch,Inc.FasterresponsetocustomersandpartnersGreaterconsistencyofdecisionmakingLowercostofdecisionmakingOveralldecisionoutcomeimprovementKnowledgeworkersavailableforhighervaluetasksITcostsloweredasapplicationdesignaresimplifiedSummaryDecisionManagementispartofPerformanceManagementandExpandsyourBusinessIntelligenceandAnalyticsEffortsValue18©2006,VentanaResearch,Inc.VentanaResearchAnalystSummit-Connections2006–SanFranciscoinJuneJune