全球气候变化背景下的中国减灾战略与行动

全球气候变化背景下的中国减灾战略与行动China’sDisasterReductionStrategiesandActionsintheContextofGlobalClimaticChanges提纲背景：对现状的认识和评估Background:recognitionandassessmentoftheexistingconditions2.中国的减灾战略和已取得的重要进展China’sstrategiesfordisasterreductionandtheimportantprogressmade3.今后5年的主要行动框架ThemajoractionframeworkfortheworkinthefollowingfiveyearsOutline1背景：对现状的认识和评估Background:recognitionandassessmentoftheexistingconditions全球过去150年来最暖的9年出现在最近11年。在过去的100年中，全球平均地表温度升高了0.74±0.18℃，其中尤以1910－1945年，1979－2005年的升温最为明显。背景：对现状的认识和评估（1）Theprevious11yearshavewitnessedtheninewarmestyearsinthelast150years.Inthelast100years,theaveragesurfacetemperatureoftheglobehasrisenby0.74±0.18℃,themostobvioustemperatureincreasesoccurringduringtheyears1910－1945and1979－2005.Background:recognitionandassessmentoftheexistingconditions(1)2007年1月29日－2月1日，联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）第一工作组通过的第四次评估报告中，基于6种可能的排放情景、气候模式对本世纪末全球平均气温进行了预估，低排放情景增温1.8℃，高排放情景的最佳增温估计值为4℃。

背景：对现状的认识和评估（2）FromJan29thtoFeb.1st,2007,thefirstworkteamoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeoftheUnitedNations(联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会)（IPCC）adoptedthefourthassessmentreportinwhichestimatesweremadeabouttheaveragetemperatureoftheglobeattheendofthiscenturybasedonthesixpossibledischargingsituationsandclimatemodes.Anincreaseof1.8℃isestimatedinconsiderationofalow-leveldischarging，andanincreaseof4℃isestimatedinconsiderationofahigh-leveldischarging。

Background:recognitionandassessmentoftheexistingconditions(2)近百年来年均气温升高，尤其是北方地区增温明显，连续出现21个暖冬。区域降水变化波动较大，北方降水量减少，南方降水量有较为明显的增加。极端天气与气候事件发生的频度和强度加大。海平面上升加快。山地冰川加速退缩。

背景：对现状的认识和评估（3）在全球气候变暖的大背景下，中国近百年来的气候变化与全球趋势基本一致。

Withintheoverallbackground

ofglobalwarming,theclimaticchangesofChinainthelastcenturyareconsistentwiththeglobaltendency.

Averageannualtemperatureremainsonarisingpathforthepastcentury.ThisismorevisibleinnorthernpartofChinawiththeemergenceof21warmwintersinsuccession.Therehasemergedasharpfluctuationinregionalrainfalls.Therainfallsinthenorthhavebeenonadownwardpath,whiletherainfallsinthesouthhavecontinuedtosurge.Therehasbeengrowingfrequencyandferocityofextremeweatherandclimaticdisasters.sealevelsarerisingmorerapidly.glaciersareretreatingatafasterpace.

Background:recognitionandassessmentoftheexistingconditions(3)全球气候变暖影响人类社会的生存与发展，直接导致灾害风险加大，灾害发生的频度、强度及其造成的损失上升；极端气候事件和巨灾不断发生。背景：对现状的认识和评估（4）Globalwarmingaffectsthesustenanceanddevelopmentofthehumansociety,directlyleadstotheincreaseofdisasterrisks,drivesthefrequencyandintensityofdisastersandthecausedlossesonarisingpath,andevenresultsinthecontinualoccurrenceofextremeclimatesanddevastatingdisasters.

Background:recognitionandassessmentoftheexistingconditions(4)2006年5月印尼爪哇岛地震TheEarthquakeinJava,IndonesiainMay,20062005年10月南亚强烈地震ThegreatearthquakeinSouthAsiainOctober20052004年12月印度洋地震海啸TheEarthquake-inducedTsunamiinDecember20042005年8月美国“卡特里娜”飓风TheKatrinaHurricaneoccurringinAmericainAugust2005

中国是世界上自然灾害最为严重的少数国家之一。全国74％的省会城市、62％的地级以上城市位于高地震烈度区，70％以上的大城市、50％以上的人口分布在气象、地震、地质和海洋等灾害严重的地区。背景：对现状的认识和评估（5）Chinaremainsoneoffewcountriesthataremostseverelyafflictedbynaturaldisastersacrosstheworld.74%ofprovincialcapitalsand62%ofmunicipalitiesarepronetohigh-intensityearthquakes,over70%oflargecitiesandover50%ofthepopulationarevulnerabletometeorological,seismic,geologicalandoceanicdisasters.

Background:recognitionandassessmentoftheexistingconditions(5)2006年年四川川和重重庆遭遭遇1951年年以来来最为为严重重的旱旱灾themostseveresummerdroughtsince1951hitSichuanandChongqing,2006.2006年年8月月10日超超强台台风““桑美美”重重创中中国东东南沿沿海SupertyphoonSaomaislammedintothecoastofeasternChina,August10th,20062005年年6月月13日，，黑龙龙江沙沙兰镇镇中心心小学学被洪洪水淹淹没ShalanschoolwasdestroyedbyfloodinHeilongjiangProvince,June13,2005.近10年来来，我我国年年均受受灾人人口约约3亿亿人（（次）），因因灾倒倒塌房房屋约约400万万间，，紧急急转移移安置置人口口约400万人人，直直接经经济损损失超超过2000亿亿元，，自然然灾害害形势势日趋趋严峻峻。全全球气气候变变暖已已是不不争的的事实实，气气候变变化带带来的的严重重后果果变为为日益益显现现的严严酷现现实。。背景：：对现现状的的认识识和评评估（（6））Forthepastdecade,Chinahasfacedastillmoregloomypictureofnaturaldisasters,withroughly300millionpeopleaffected,4millionhousescollapsed,4millionpeopleevacuatedandover200billionRMByuanofdirecteconomiclossesincurredeveryyearontheaverage.Globalwarmingisnowacold,hardfact,asclimatechangeisnowtakingamorevisibletollonhumankind.Background:recognitionandassessmentoftheexistingconditions(6)2中国的的减灾灾战略略和已已取得得的重重要进进展China’sstrategiesfordisasterreductionandtheimportantprogressmade背景（（1））Background(1)近年来来，国国际社社会为为减缓缓气候候变化化做出出了不不懈努努力。。作为为减缓缓和适适应气气候变变化的的重要要举措措，高高度重重视减减轻灾灾害风风险与与社会会协调调发展展的相相互关关系。。Theinternationalcommunityhasbeenmakingunrelentingeffortsinrecentyearstodecelerateclimaticchangesoftheglobeandattachesgreatimportancetothemutualrelationshipsofdisasterriskreductionandtheharmoniousdevelopmentofthesocietyasanimportantmeasureforthedecelerationofandtheadaptationtotheclimaticchanges.2005年年1月月召开开的第第二次次世界界减灾灾大会会，形形成了了《加加强国国家和和社区区的抗抗灾能能力：：2005－2015年年兵库库行动动纲领领》。。2005年年9月月在中中国北北京召召开的的亚洲洲减灾灾大会会，通通过了了《亚亚洲减减少灾灾害风风险北北京行行动计计划》》。背景（（2））Background(2)ThesecondWorldConferenceonDisasterReductioninJanuary2005formulatedtheHyogoActionFrameworkfor2005-2015:BuildinguptheResilienceofCountriesandCommunitiestoDisasters.TheAsianConferenceonDisasterReductionheldinBeijinginSeptember2005adoptedtheBeijingActionPlanforReducingDisasterRisksinAsia.背景（（3））Background(3)中国政政府高高度重重视减减灾工工作，，把加加强综综合减减灾能能力建建设，，提高高风险险防范范水平平作为为有效效应对对气候候变化化的一一项现现实、、紧迫迫的任任务，，作为为实现现国民民经济济和社社会可可持续续发展展总体体目标标的重重要保保障，，作为为构建建社会会主义义和谐谐社会会的重重要内内容。。TheChinesegovernmentattachesgreatimportancetothedisasterreductionworkandconsidersthescale-upoftheconstructionofcomprehensivedisasterreductioncapabilitiesandtheenhancementofthepreparationsagainstpotentialrisksasapracticalurgenttasktoeffectivelydealwithclimaticchanges,asanimportantsafeguardfortherealizationoftheoverallobjectiveofthesustainabledevelopmentofthenationaleconomyandsocietyandasanimportantcontentinthebuildingoftheSocialistHarmoniousSociety.温家宝宝总理理5月月30日主主持召召开国国务院院常务务会议议，审审议并并决定定颁布布《中中国应应对气气候变变化国国家方方案》》。TheChinesegovernmentattachesgreatimportancetothedisasterreductionworkandconsidersthescale-upoftheconstructionofcomprehensivedisasterreductioncapabilitiesandtheenhancementofthepreparationsagainstpotentialrisksasapracticalurgenttasktoeffectivelydealwithclimaticchanges,asanimportantsafeguardfortherealizationoftheoverallobjectiveofthesustainabledevelopmentofthenationaleconomyandsocietyandasanimportantcontentinthebuildingoftheSocialistHarmoniousSociety.OnMay30th,PremierWenJiabaochairedaStandingMeetingoftheStateCouncilinwhichhedecidedtopromulgatetheNationalPlanforDealingwithClimaticChangesafterreviewinganddiscussionwiththeparticipants.背景（4））Background(4)中国的减灾灾战略（1）全面落实科科学发展观观和“以人人为本”的的执政理念念，实行政政府统一领领导、部门门分工负责责，中央和和地方政府府分级管理理的减灾工工作体制，，构建政府府、市场、、社会共同同参与的减减灾与综合合风险防范范运行机制制。Chinaseekstodeliveruponscientificoutlookondevelopmentinallaspectsandputpeoplefirstinadministration.Chinaworkstofollowatop-downworkingsystemthatfeaturesunifiedcentralleadershipandclear-cutdivisionofresponsibilitiesamongdepartments.Chinaenvisionsanoperationalmechanismofdisasterreductionandriskmitigationthatintegratesthegovernment,theindustryandthecivilsocietytobuildresilienceacrossthecountry.China’sstrategiesfordisasterreduction(1)中国的减灾灾战略（2）按照人与自自然和谐相相处的要求求，注重人人类活动对对自然环境境的影响，，减轻自然然灾害频发发地区人为为活动对环环境的负面面作用，促促进经济与与地区承载载能力相适适应的可持持续发展。。Chinaseekstoachieveharmonybetweenmanandnatureandpayscloseattentiontohowhumanactivitiesimpactthenaturalenvironment.Tothisend,Chinaremainscommittedtoalleviatingtheimplicationshumanactivitieshaveforenvironmentindisaster-proneareasasawaytoensureeconomicsustainabilityinlinewithlocalcarryingcapacity.China’sstrategiesfordisasterreduction(2)中国的减灾灾战略（3）统筹抗御各各类灾害，，统筹做好好监测预警警、防范防防御、应急急处置、救救助重建各各个方面的的工作，统统筹整合各各方面资源源，统筹运运用各种减减灾手段，，加强自然然灾害的风风险管理，，重点解决决综合减灾灾的薄弱环环节，全面面提高国家家综合减灾灾和风险防防范能力。。Chinaseekstoworkoutaportfolioofintegratedmeasurestorespondtonaturaldisastersofallkindsandgivesdueregardtoalllinksanddifferentfacets,includingmonitoringandearlywarning,disasterpreventionandcontrol,emergencyresponse,reliefandrebuilding.Chinaworkstoharnessallresourcesandstrengthsavailableandleverageseverypossiblemeanstomitigationdisasterrisks,addressvulnerabilitiesandweaklinksandelevatethenationalcapacityofintegrateddisasterreductionandriskpreventioninalldimensions.China’sstrategiesfordisasterreduction(3)中国的减灾灾战略（4）继续加强减减灾领域的的国际合作作与交流。。积极参与与和推动联联合国框架架下的减灾灾与风险防防范行动，，鼓励和支支持中国与与其他国家家和区域组组织在政府府间、学术术界、企业业界、民间间组织等方方面的广泛泛交流与合合作。Chinaseekstostepupinternationalcommunicationandcooperationondisasterreduction.ChinaremainsaproactiveplayerinUN-backeddisasterreductionandriskpreventionprograms.Chinaencouragesandendorsesextensivecommunicationandcooperationamonggovernments,theacademia,thebusinesscommunityandtheNGOsfrominsideandoutsideChina.China’sstrategiesfordisasterreduction(4)2005年年4月，““中国国际际减灾委员员会”更名名为“国家家减灾委员员会”，同同时建立了了国家减灾灾委专家委委员会。国国家层面的的综合减灾灾体制和运运行平台，，以及减灾灾政策咨询询和智力支支持制度基基本建立。。地方综合合减灾机构构也陆续建建立，已有有23个省省份成立了了相应机构构。重要进展（1）InApril2005,ChinaCommissionforIDDRwasrenamedasNationalCommissionforDisasterReduction,togetherwiththecreationofBoardofExperts.Themovessignifythatanational-levelintegratedsystemandoperationalplatformhastakenshape,sohasthesystemofpolicycounselingandtechnicalsupportfordisasterreduction.Thatagainhasbeenfollowedbytheestablishmentoflocaldisasterreductionnetworks,withcompetentdepartmentsupandrunningin23provincesatthismoment.theimportantprogress(1)国家减灾委员员会NCDR形成了气象、、地震、水文文、地质、海海洋、农作物物病虫害、森森林防火和森森林病虫害监监测预报等多多灾种的立体体监测预警预预报体系。建建设了以长江江三峡水利枢枢纽工程为标标志的大江大大河堤防工程程、重点城市市防洪和抗震震设防工程、、退耕还林还还草工程等一一批重点减灾灾工程。灾害害监测预报体体系和减灾工工程体系基本本建成。重要进展（2）Chinahasphasedinasolidandinclusivesystemofmonitoring,earlywarningandforecastingthatcoversabroadrangeofdisasters,includingmeteorologicalmonitoringandforecasting,earthquakemonitoringandforecasting,hydrologicmonitoring,geologicdisastermonitoringandearlywarning,croppestanddiseasemonitoring,forestfireandpestforecastingandoceandisastermonitoringandforecasting.EmbankmentengineeringonthethreegorgesoftheYangtzeRiverandothermajorrivers,flood-controlandearthquake-resistantfacilitiesinvulnerablecitiesandgrain-for-greenprogramshavebeendeliveredtobuilddisasterresilience.theimportantprogress(2)DroughtFloodOceanDisasterGeologicDisasterForestFireTropicalStorm制定了《国家家突发公共事事件总体应急急预案》，并并按自然灾害害、事故灾难难、公共卫生生和社会安全全四大类公共共突发事件分分别制定了专专项预案和部部门预案。进进一步强化了了信息传递和和共享、应急急响应、应急急救助、应急急队伍和应急急保障等方面面的能力建设设，国家突发发公共事件应应急体系基本本建成。重要进展（3）ChinahasinstitutedOverallNationalEmergencyResponsePlansforPublicContingenciesandidentifiedspecialplansanddepartmentalprogramsinresponsetofourcategoriesofpubliccontingenciesthatincludenaturaldisasters,accidents,publichealthdisastersandsocialinsecurity.Chinahasalsoworkedoncapacity-buildingforinformationsourcingandsharing,emergencyresponseandrelief,taskforceandguarantee.Anationalpublicemergencyresponsesystemhastakenshape.theimportantprogress(3)国家自然灾害害救助应急预预案Nationalemergencyplanonnaturaldisasterrelief10centralgovernmentreservecenters10个中央级救灾灾物资储备库库应急响应机制制逐步完善Improvingemergencyresponsemechanism制定了《国家家综合减灾““十一五”规规划》、《““十一五”期期间国家突发发公共事件应应急体系建设设规划》、《《全国山洪灾灾害防止规划划》等，将减减轻灾害风险险纳入国家和和地方经济与与社会发展规规划，确保中中央和地方政政府的减灾政政策措施和行行动得以贯彻彻实施。重要进展（4）ChinahasoutlinedNationalEleventhFive-YearPlanforIntegratedDisasterReduction,ProgramofSystem-buildingforPublicEmergencyResponseDuringtheTenureoftheEleventhFive-YearPlanandNationalProgramforFlashfloodPrevention.Theseprogramsareindicativeofthefactthatdisasterriskmitigationhasbeenincorporatedintonationalandlocalprogramsofsocio-economicdevelopment.Theseprogramsalsoensurethatdisasterreductionpolicy-measuresandactionplans,bothcentralandlocal,canbeexecutedandfollowedthrough.theimportantprogress(4)减灾科科普教教育宣宣传工工作全全面展展开，，组织织实施施了减减灾知知识““进农农村、、进社社区、、进企企业、、进学学校””、““社区区减灾灾平安安行””、““全国国减灾灾知识识竞赛赛”等等系列列减灾灾科普普活动动。加加强了了基层层预案案编制制、预预案演演练和和避灾灾设施施建设设。公公众减减灾意意识和和基层层减灾灾能力力明显显提高高。重要进进展（（5））Pop-scienceawarenesscampaignsondisasterreductionhavebeenorganizedto““reachouttotheruralareas,communities,enterprisesandschools””abouttheknowledgeneededfordisasterresilience.CommunityDisasterReductionCampaignandNationalDisasterReductionContesthavealsobeenundertakentoaddmoresubstancetotheoutreachcampaigns.Chinahasalsobuiltupcapabilitiestoworkoutemergencyresponseplans,embarkondrillsandbuilddisaster-resistantfacilitiesatthegrass-rootslevel.Withalltheseinitiativesinplace,thepublicarenowmoreawareofhowtolivewithdisastersandthegrass-rootscommunitiesaremoreresilienttodisasters.theimportantprogress(5)社区减减灾平平安行行CommunityDisasterReductionCampaign中国减减灾DisasterReductioninChinaDelivertheemergencyrelieftoPakistan减灾领领域的的国际际和区区域合合作交交流日日趋活活跃，，与50多多个国国家和和国际际组织织建立立了合合作关关系。。召开开了首首次亚亚洲减减灾大大会和和上海海合作作组织织救灾灾部门门领导导人会会议，，签署署了一一系列列多边边和双双边合合作协协议。。积极极参与与了针针对印印度洋洋地震震海啸啸、巴巴基斯斯坦地地震等等巨灾灾的国国际救救援行行动，，承担担了与与中国国能力力相适适应的的国际际责任任与义义务。。重要进进展（（6））CommunicationandCooperationonDisasterReduction,BothRegionallyandGloballyareProactiveandFrequent.Chinahasenteredintopartnershipswithover50countriesandworldbodies.Chinahostedthefirst-everAsianConferenceonDisasterReductionandSeniorOfficials’’MeetingofDisasterReliefDepartmentswithintheSCO,whereahostofmultilateralandbilateralagreementswereconcluded.Chinahasalsobeenproactiveinoutpouringitscompassionandgenerositytowardscountriessweptbyearthquake-triggeredtsunamiwithintheIndianOceanRimandtheearthquake-ravagedregioninPakistan,amongotherinternationalreliefeffortsfollowingdevastatingdisasters.Insodoing,Chinahasliveduptoitsdueinternationalresponsibilityandobligationcommensuratetoitsowncapacity.theimport