财务风险【外文翻译】

外文翻译

原文

FinancialRisk

MaterialSource:EssentialofFinancialRiskManagement

Author:KarenA.H

orcher

Although

financialriskhasincreasedsignificantlyinrecentyears,riskandriskmanagementarenotcontemporary

issues.Theresultofincreasinglyglobalmarketsisthatriskmayoriginatewitheventsthousandsofmilesaway

thathavenothing

todowiththedomesticmarket.Informationisavailableinstantaneously,whichmeansthatchange,andsubsequ

entmarketreactions,occurveryquickly.

:

Theeconomicclimateandmarketscanbeaffectedvery

quicklybychanges

inexchangerates,interestrates,andcommodityprices.Asaresult,it

risksareidentifiedandmanagedappropriately.

Preparationis

is

a

importanttoensurefinancial

keycomponentoffinancial

riskmanagement.

Riskprovidesthebasisforopportunity.Thetermsriskandexposurehavesubtledifferencesin

theirmeaning.Riskreferstotheprobabilityofloss,whileexposureisthepossibilityofloss,althoughtheyareoftenusedinterchangeably.Riskarisesasaresultofexposure.

Exposuretofinancialmarketsaffectsmostorganizations,eitherdirectly

orindirectly.Whenanorganizationhasfinancialmarketexposure,thereisapossibilityoflossbutalsoanopportunityforgainorprofit.

Riskisthelikelihoodoflossesresultingfromeventssuchaschangesinma

rketprices.Eventswithalowprobabilityofoccurring,butthatmayresultinahighloss,areparticularlytroublesomebecausetheyareoftennotanticipated.

Sinceitisnotalwayspossibleordesirabletoeliminatefinancialrisk,understandingitisan

importantstepindetermininghowtomanageit.Identifyingexposuresandrisksformsthebasisforanappropriatefinancialriskmanagementstrategy.

Financialriskarisesthroughcountlesstransactionsofafinancialnature,includingsalesandpurchases,investmentsandloans,andvariousotherbusinessactivities,

Whenpriceschangedramatically,itcanincreasecosts,reducerevenues,orotherwiseadversely

impacttheprofitabilityofanorganization.Financialfluctuationsmaymake

itmoredifficulttoplanandbudgetpricegoodsandservices,andallocatecapital.

Therearethreemainsourcesoffinancialrisk:first,financialrisksarisingfroman

organization’sexposuretochangesinmarketprices,suchasinterestrates,exchangerates,and

commodityprices,second,financialriskarisingfromtheactionsof,andtransactionwith,other

organizationssuchas

vendors,customers,andcounterpartiesinderivativestransactions,third,financialrisksresultingfrominter

nalactionsorfailuresoftheorganization,particularlypeople,processes,andsystems.

Financialriskmanagementisaprocesstodealwiththeuncertaintiesresultingfromfinancial

markets.Itinvolvesassessingthefinancialrisksfacinganorganizationanddeveloping

managementstrategiesconsistentwithinternalprioritiesandpolicies.Addressingfinancialrisks

proactivelymayprovideanorganizationwithacompetitiveadvantage.Italsoensuresthat

management,operationalstaff,stakeholder,andtheboardofdirectorsareinagreementonkeyissuesofrisk.

Managingfinancialrisknecessitatesmakingorganizationaldecisions

aboutrisksthatareacceptableversusthosethatarenot.Thepassive

oftakingnoactionistheacceptanceofallrisksbydefault.

Organizationsmanage

financialriskusingavarietyofstrategies.Itisimportanttounderstandhowthesestrategiesworktoreduceriskwithinthecontextoftheorganization’srisktoleranceandobjectives.

strategy

Theabilitytoestimatethelikelihoodofafinanciallossishighlydesirable.However,standard

theoriesofprobabilityoftenfailintheanalysisoffinancialmarkets.Risksusuallydonotexistin

isolation,andtheinteractionsofseveralexposuresmayhavetobeconsideredindevelopingan

understandingofhowfinancialriskarises.Sometimes,theseinteractionsaredifficulttoforecast,sincetheyultimatelydependonhumanbehavior.

Theprocessoffinancialriskmanagementisanongoingone.Strategiesneedtobeimplementedand

refinedasthemarketandrequirementschange.Refinementsmayreflectchangingexpectationsabout

marketrates,changestothebusinessenvironment,orchanginginternationalpoliticalconditions,forexample.Ingeneral,theprocessca

nbesummarizedasfollows:first,identifyandprioritizekeyfinancial

risks,second,determineanappropriatelevel

ofrisk

tolerance,

third,implementriskmanagementstrategyinaccordance

with

policy,last,

measure,

report,monitor,andrefineasneeded.

Majormarketrisksariseoutofchangestofinancialmarketpricessuch

asexchangerates,interestrates,andcommodity

prices.Majormarketrisksareusuallythemostobvioustypeoffinancialriskthatanorganizationfaces.Majormar

ketrisksincludeforeignexchangerisk,interestraterisk,commoditypricerisk,equitypricerisk.Otherimportantrelatedfinancialrisksincludecreditrisk,operationalrisk,liquidityrisk,systemicrisk.

Theinteractionsofseveralriskscanalterormagnifythepotentialimpactto

anorganization.Forexample,anorganizationmayhavebothcommoditypriceriskandforeignexchangerisk,Ifbothmarketsbecomeadversely,theorganizationmaysuffersignificantlossesasaresult.

Therearetwo

componentstoassessingfinancialrisk,Thefirstcomponentisanunderstandingofpotentiallossasaresult

ofaparticularrateorpricechange,Thesecondcomponentisanestimateofheprobabilityofsuchaneventoccurring.

Interestrateriskarisesfromseveralsources,includingchangesinthelevelofinterestrates(absoluteinterestraterisk),changesintheshapeoftheyieldcurve(yieldcurverisk),mismatchesbetween

andtheriskmanagementstrategiesundertaken(basisrisk).

Interestrateriskaffectsmanyorganizations,bothborrowersandinvestors,anditparticularlyaffectscapital-intensiveindustriesandsectors.

Changesaffectborrowersthroughthecostoffunds,Forexample,ac

orporateborrowerthatutilizesfloatinginterestratedebtisexposedtorisinginterestratesthatcouldincrease

thecompany’scostoffunds,Aportfoliooffixedincomesecuritieshasexposuretointerestratesthroughbothchangesinyieldandgainsorlossesonassetsheld.

Absoluteinterestrateriskresultsfromthepossibilityofadirectional,orup

ordown,changeininterestrates.Mostorganizationsmonitorabsoluteinterestrateriskintheirriskassessments,duetobothitsvisibilityanditspotentialforaffectingprofitability.

Fromaborrower’sperspective,risinginterestratesmightresultinhigherprojectcostsandchangestofinancingorstrategicplans.Fromaninvestororlenderperspective,a

declineininterestratesresultsinlowerinterestincomegiventhesameinvestment,oralternatively,inadequatereturnoninvestmentsheld.

Themostcommonmethodofhedgingabsoluteinterestrateriskistomatchthedurationofassetsand

liabilities,orreplacefloatinginterestrateborrowingorinvestmentswithfixedinterestratedebtor

investments.Anotheralternativeistohedgetheinterestrateriskwithtoolssuchasforwardrateagreements,swapsandinterestratecaps,floors,andcollars.

Yieldcurveriskresultsfromchangesintherelationshipbetweenshort-termandlong-terminterestrates.Inanormalinterestrateenvironment,theyieldcurvehasanupward-slopingshape

toit.Longer-terminterestratesarehigherthanshorter-terminterestratesbecauseofhigherrisktothe

lender.Thesteepeningofflatteningoftheyieldcurvechangestheinterestratedifferentialbetween

maturities,whichcanimpactborrowingandinvestmentdecisionsandthereforeprofitability.

Inaninvertedyieldcurveenvironment,demandforshort-termfundspushesshort-termratesabove

long-termrates.Theyieldcurvemayappearinvertedorflatacrossmostmaturities,oralternativelyonlyincertainmaturitysegments.Insuchanenvironment,

ratesoflonger

termstomaturitymaybeimpactedlessthanshortertermstomaturity.Whenthereisamismatchbetweenanorg

anization’sassetsandliabilities,yieldcurveriskshould

beassessedasacomponentoftheorganization’sinterestraterisk.

Creditriskisoneofthemostprevalentrisksoffinanceandbusiness,Ingeneral,creditriskisaconcernwhe

nanorganizationisowedmoneyormustrelyonanotherorganizationtomakeapaymenttoitoron

itsbehalf.Thefailureofacounterpartyislessofanissuewhentheorganizationis

notowedmoneyonanetbasis,althoughitdependstoa

certaindegreeonthelegalenvironmentandwhetherfundsareowedonanetoraggregatebasisonindividual

contracts.Thedeteriorationofcreditquality,suchasthatofasecuritiesissuer,isalsoa

sourceofriskthroughthereducedmarketvalueofsecuritiesthatanorganizationmightown.

Creditriskincreasesastimetoexpiry,timetosettlement,ortimetomatu

rityincrease,Themovebyinternationalregulatorstoshorten

settlementtime

forcertaintypesofsecuritiestradesisaneffortto

reduce

systemicrisk,

whichinturnisbasedontheriskofindividualmarketparticipants.Italsoincreasesinan

environmentofrisinginterestratesorpooreconomicfundamentals.

Organizationareexposedtocreditriskthroughallbusinessandfinancialtransactionsthat

dependonthepaymentorfulfillmentofobligationsofothers,Creditriskthatarisesfromexposuretoacounterparty,suchasinaderivativestransaction,isoftenknownascounterpartyrisk.

Foreignexchangeriskarisesthroughtransaction,translation,andeconomicexposures.It

mayalsoarisefromcommodity-basedtransactionswhere

commoditypricesaredeterminedandtradedinanothercurrency.Itincludestransactionrisk,translationrisk

andstrategicrisk.Transactionriskimpactsanorganization’sprofitabilitythroughtheincome

statement.Itarisesfromtheordinarytransactionsofanorganization,includingpurchasesfrom

suppliersandvendors,contractualpaymentsinothercurrencies,royaltiesoflicensefees,andsalesto

customersincurrenciesotherthanthedomesticone.Organizationsthatbuyorsell

productsandservicesdenominatedinaforeigncurrencytypicallyhavetransactionexposure.

Managementoftransactionriskcanbeanimportantdetermina

ntofcompetitiveness

inaglobaleconomy.Therearefewcorporationswhosebusinessisnotaffected,eitherdirectlyorindirectly,by

transactionrisk.

Translationrisktraditionallyreferredto

fromtheaccountingtranslationoffinancialstatement,particularlyassetsand

fluctuationsresult

liabilitiesonthe

balancesheet.Translationexposureresultswhereverassets,liabilities,orprofitsaretranslatedfromtheoperatingcurrencyintoareportingcurrency.

Fromanotherperspective,translationexposureaffectsanorganizationbyaffectingthevalueofforeigncurrencybalancesheetitemssuchasaccountspayableandreceivable,foreigncurrencycash

anddeposits,andforeigncurrencydebt.Longer-termassetsandliabilities,suchasthoseassociatedwithforeignoperations,arelikelytobeparticularlyimpacted.

Thelocationandactivitiesofmajorcompetitorsmaybeanimportantdeterminantofforeignexchangeexposure.Strategicoreconomicexposureaffectsanorganization’scompetitive

positionasaresultofchangesinexchangerates.Economicexposure,suchasdecliningsalesfrominternationalcustomers,donotshowuponthebalanc

esheet,thoughtheirimpactappearsinincomestatements.

Forexample,afirmwhosedomesticcurrencyhasappreciated

dramaticallymayfinditsproductsaretooexpensiveininternational

marketsdespiteitseffortstoreducecostofproductionandminimizeprices.Thepricesofgoodexportedbyth

efirm’scompetitors,whoarecoincidentallylocatedina

environment,becomecheaperbycomparisonwithoutanyactionontheirpart.

weak-currency

译文

财务风险

资料来源：财务风险管理的核心

作者：凯伦A哈克尽

管在近几年，财务风险问题表现得越来越显著，但风险与风险管理并不

只是当前的话题。在市场环境中，财务风险的产生有许多的原因，受影响的因素有很多。对于市场变化来说，信息具有时效性，这也就意味着市场环境的变化非常快。

市场经济环境很容易受到汇率的变化，利率的变化以及商品价格的变化的影响。因此确定财

务风险的种类并对其进行适当的管理就显得格外重要。在财务风险管理中预测风险并且做好风险的防范工作是关键。

风险在可能带来损失的同时，也提供了获利的机遇。许多学者们对于风险这个概念的认识只

存在着细微的差别，共同之处在于他们认为风险代表了损失的可能性，同时也代表了获利的机遇。风险是企业市场交易活动的产物。

无论是直接影响还是间接影响，大多数企业都面临着风险。当某企业在进行市场交易活动时，其面临着风险，这些风险也许会给它带来损失但是同时也有可能给它带来盈利的机会。

风险的产生是市场环境中某些要素变化的结果，例如商品市场价格的变化。那些发生概率小，

但一旦发生就会给企业带来巨大损失的事件因素对于企业经营管理者来说尤其麻烦，因为这些事件

因素发生率低，企业在这方面毫无准备，如果一旦发生，就会使企业束手无策，来不及应对。

既然财务风险不能被我们所消灭，那么深入了解财务风险的种类以及其所产生的原因，根据种类原因来规避防范财务风险就非常重要。

财务风险产生于交易活动中，包括买，卖，投资，贷款以及其他的经济活

动。

当市场价格变动非常剧烈时，它会增加企业的成本，减少企业的收入，或者减少企业的成本，

增加企业的收入。因而市场环境的多变性使企业更加难以预测和制定商品及服务的价格和筹集资本的计划。

财务风险主要有三个方面的来源，首先是来自于市场环境的变化，例如利率的变动，汇率的

变动以及商品价格的变动；其次来自于企业进行经济活动的对象，包括供应商，顾客消费者，以

及关联企业的交易，第三是来自于企业内部的行为控制，特别是对于职员，过程和体系方面的控制。

财务风险管理是解决由于市场环境的不确定性而带来的变化时所采取的措施程序。它包括对

企业面临的财务风险进行衡量管理，同时也对企业内部的应对措施进行修改完善。加强对企业财务风险的管理可以提高企业的竞争力，同

时也可以使得企业的经营管理者，职员，股东和董事会在关键的风险问题上达成一致性。

管理财务风险需要对于哪些风险是可接受的，哪些风险是不可接受的有个总体的决定。消极的应对策略是不采取任何行动，默认一切存在的风险。

企业管理财务风险的时候会运用到多种不同的战略，因此，企业对于不同战略内容的认识，了解其取值范围与所达到的目标就非常重要。

能够准确合理估算出财务风险带来的损失的大小这个结果是令人满意的，然而在目前的较为

标准的财务风险分析理论中，其运用常常得到失败的结果。由于风险并不单单只存在于一个孤立的

个体中，其更多存在于市场交易活动中，有时，这些交易活动时难以预测和估计的，因为这最终是取决于人的行为活动上。

财务风险管理是一个不间断的过程，根据市场环境的要求和变化，其战略应该不断地更新。

其更新的内容要反映对市场利率，市场交易环境，或者国际交易的政策条件变化。总而言之，其

过程可以被大致概括为以下几个方面：首先是确认财务风险，并找出对该企业影响最大的财务风

险，其次是确定企业对某财务风险可接受的范围，第三是不断地补充更新财务风险战略的内容，使其与政策保持一致性，最后是衡量，报告，监督财务风险。

主要的市场风险产生于市场的变化，例如汇率的变化，利率的变化和商品价格的变化。主要

的市场风险是财务风险的一种，这是大多数企业都会面临的。主要市场风险具体包括汇率风险，利

率风险，商品价格风险，以及股票价格风险。此外与财务风险有重要联系的包括信用风险，经营风险，流动性风险和系统性风险。

几个风险的相互作用可以改变或者放大某一企业潜在风险的影响程度。举个例子，某一企业

存在商品价格风险和汇率风险，如果此时商品价格市场和汇率市场都产生了较大的变化，那么对于这企业来说也许会产生巨大的损失。

在衡量财务风险是包括两个方面，第一是了解其潜在的损失到底是由哪种风险所带来的，比

如特定基率的变动带来的还是价格变动带来的，第二是估算预测事件发生可能性的概率。

利率风险的产生有多个方面，包括利率水平的变化（绝对的利率风险），变动的收益曲线形状（收益率曲线风险），承担风险的策略（基本风险）。

利率风险影响了很多企业，包括借款方和投资方，并且它对资本密集型的行业和部门影响更大。

利率的变化通过对借款方筹集资金的成本产生影响，举个例子，一企业借款者在利率不断上

升的情况下，采用浮动利率来进行借款，这样会增加公司筹集资金的成本。一组有固定收入的证券投资组合由于受到利率变动的影响，会

使其在资产的收益和损失上发生变化。

绝对利率风险主要产生于同一个方向上下利率的变动。大多数企业在进行绝对风险评估时，都对利率风险进行监控，