伦敦工商会2022年Q2伦敦经济调查

2022/9/24 2022/9/24 新建文本文档Hml川己:/件:/桌面/报告审核/新建文本文档川己:/件:/桌面/报告审核/新建文本文档Hml 4LONDON’CHAMBERCOMMERCE(_/ANDINDUSTRY■iamtair-1CONNECT.CHAMPION.SUPPORT.CAPITAL500LondonQuarterlyEconomicSurveyApril-June2022InpartnershipwithSponsoredbySavantahaysmacintyreHeadofPolicyand

PublicImpact.London

ChamberofCommerce

HeadofPolicyand

PublicImpact.London

ChamberofCommerce

andIndustryLCCICOMMENTARY-THEBUSINESSVIEWTheeconomicclimateforLondon'sbusinesses,particularlyourcapital'smicrocompanies,remainsuncertain.Ontheonehand,thereareencouragingsignsofarecoveryinLondonasthenumberofinboundtouristsfromoverseasincreasesandofficeworkersmakemorejourneysintheweekintothecentre.ThePlatinumJubileeweekendofferedachanceforLondontoshowcaseitsbusinessestotheworld.Atthesametimehowever;thelatestCapital500showsdomesticsaleshaveplateaued,businessconfidencehasslumped,andcostsarerisingsharplyforLondoncompanies.Concernsoverinflation,risingborrowingcostsandatightlabourmarketaregrowingaswell.MeasuresundertakenbytheChancellortosupporthouseholdsarewelcomeandwillhopefullyalleviatethepressuresonthemostvulnerableinoursociety.Additionalsupportisneeded,howevertoreducethecostofbusinesstohelpLondonandtheUKthrive.Businesseshavehadtoweatheruncertaintywithconcernsregardingstagflationarypressures,higherenergyandfoodpricesandworrieswithemployingkeyworkers.WiththetragedyoftheongoingwarinUkrainecombinedwiththeslowrecoveryfromthepandemicandfearsofatradewarwiththeEuropeanUnion,itistestamenttotheentrepreneurialdriveofLondonbusinessesthatthecapitalremainstheplacetodobusiness.LondonChamberofCommerceandIndustryiscommittedtoworkingwithLondonbusinessesinthechallengingtimesthatlieahead.JamesWatkins.HeadofPolicyandPublicImpact,LondonChamberofCommerceandIndustryABOUTTHE'CAPITAL500'ForoveradecadeLondonChamberofCommerceandIndustry(LCCI)hasconductedaQuarterlyEconomicSurvey(QES)ofmemberstogaugebusinessperformanceandgeneralconfidencelevelsacrossthecapital.Thisispartofthebiggestandlongestrunningnationalprivatebusinesssurvey,conductedbyregionalchambersofcommerceacrosstheUKeveryquarter.SavantaComRessurveyedatotalof510Londonbusinessleadersbetween4Mayand30May2022.AlldatawereweightedtoberepresentativeofallLondonbusinessesbycompanysizeandbroadindustrysector.SavantaComResisamemberoftheBritishPollingCouncilandabidesbyitsrules.Fulldatatablesareavailableat.Thenetbalancefiguresrepresentthepercentageoffirmsthatreportedanincreaseminusthepercentagethatreportedadecrease.Ta/ocategoriesareusedforbusinesssizesegmentation:microbusinesseswithfewerthan10employees(includingsoletraders),andlarger(small,mediumandlarge)businesseswith10ormoreemployees.Anydatareproducedfromthereportshouldbefullyreferenced.ABOUTHATSMACINTYREhaysmacintyreisanawardwinningfirmofcharteredaccountantsandtaxadvisors,providingspecialistadvicetoentrepreneurs,fast-growingandowner-managedbusinesses,andnotforprofitorganisationsacrosstheUKandinternationally.2022/9/24 2022/9/24 新建文本文档.html川己:/件:/桌面/报告审核/新建文本文档川己:/件:/桌面/报告审核/新建文本文档.html #/14ChiefEconomicAdvisor

andBoardMember,Centre

forEconomicsandBusinessResearch(Cebr)GUESTCOMMENTARY-THEECONOMISTSVIEWChiefEconomicAdvisor

andBoardMember,Centre

forEconomicsandBusinessResearch(Cebr)SincethefieldworkforthelatestLondonQuarterlyEconomicSurveywasundertaken,themoodhasturnedincreasinglynegativeandstockmarketshavereflectedthatuneaseinrecentmonths.Aftermoreorlessstagnantgrowthinadvancedeconomiesinthefirstquarter;globalindicatorssuggestafurtherslowdowninactivityinQ2.WhatnowlookslikeaprolongedwarinUkrainehassentinflationupwards,resultinginsharperthananticipatedinterestrateincreasesandaccentuatinganalreadydevelopingcostoflivingcrisis.NewCovidlockdownsinChinahavecontributedtothis.Howevecthewarhashadawiderimpactacrosstheglobe.Inputcostsarerisingstronglyonthebackofenergypriceincreasesandcontinuedsupplyshortages.Investmentandgrowthhavesuffered.IntheUS,whereGDPfellatanannualisedrateof1.4%inQI,bothmanufacturingoutputandconsumerconfidencehavebeenunderpressureinQ2.IntheUKGDPfellby0.3%inAprilaftera0.2%declineinMarch.Thedropwasfeltacrossallsectors,includingmanufacturingandconstruction,thoughtheservicesdeclinewasmainlyduetoadropinhealthservicespending:thisreflected,amongstotherthings,areductioninvaccineboostersandinCovidtesting.Businesssurveysindicateincreasedpessimism,whileconsumerconfidencehasdroppedtothelowestonrecord.IntheEU,economicsentimentfellfurtherinMay,withthecountriesmostreliantonRussianoilandgasworstaffected.Costoflivingissuesarerisinguptheagendaacrosstheglobeandgrowthforecastshaveasaresultbeenrevisedsharplydownwards.Globally,theonlyupwardrevisionsareforahandfulofcommodityproducers.Fortheworldeconomyasawhole,whichdidreboundfromtheCovidslumptogrowby5.7%in2021,theWorldBankinJunereducedits2022GDPforecasttoonly2.9%incomparedtoaJanuaryforecastof4.1%.IntheUKtheBankofEnglandraisedinterestratesagainby25basispointsinJune,thefifthincreaseinasmanymeetingssinceDecember;bringingtherateto1.25%.Initsaccompanyingforecastitlowereditsgrowthexpectations,anticipatinglittleincreaseinactivityfortherestoftheyearandthroughmostof2023.Inflationwasrevisedfurtherupwardstonowpeakat11%laterin2022.Thecountryisfacinga'summerofdiscontent'asrealwagesarenotkeepingupwithinflation,particularlyinthepublicsector.Onthepositiveside,unemploymentremainsnearrecordlowlevelsat3,8%,whilepocketsofbigstaffshortagesremainacrossmanysectors.Atthesametime,althoughretailissuffering,spendinginotherconsumerservicesisrising,includinghospitality."Tourismisreboundingtoo,butithasbroughtwithittravelchaosastheindustry一andthesupportinginfrastructure—wereill-preparedfortheunleashingofthehugepent-updemand.Thishasbeenwell-documented,andtheUKisnottheonlycountryinEuropewithproblemsinthesectorthatwillbedifficulttoresolveinahurry.Inthemeantime,costoflivingissues,centringmainlyonenergy,fuelandfoodarelikelytodominatetheremainingoftheyear.TheGovernmentiswidelyexpectedtointerveneagain,despitepressureonpublicfinances,toprovidefurthersupporttothosemostinneed.VickyPryce.ChiefEconomicAdvisorandBoardMember,CentreforEconomicsandBusinessResearch(Cebr)

ofLondonbusinessesreportedanincreaseindomesticsaleslastquarterDOMESTICDEMAND22%ofLondonbusinessesreportedanincreaseindomesticorderslastquarter17%LondonbusinessessawweakerdomesticdemandinQ22022accordingtothelatestQuarterlyEconomicSurvey.Thenetbalancefordomesticsales(thepercentageofbusinesseswhoreportedanincreaseminusthepercentagewhoreportedadecrease)fellbackintonegativeterritory,down6pointsto-3.Aquarter(25%)ofbusinessessaidsaleshadfalleninQ2,upfrom20%inQI.Therewasalsoasmalldipintheshareoffirmswhosaidsaleshadrisen(from23%to22%).ofLondonbusinessesreportedanincreaseindomesticsaleslastquarterDOMESTICDEMAND22%ofLondonbusinessesreportedanincreaseindomesticorderslastquarter17%Microbusinesses(0-9employees)borethebruntofthisdeclineindomesticsales:thenetbalancefellfrom+3to-5,withaquarter(26%)ofmicrofirmsreportingadropinsaleslastquarter.Bycontrast,thesalesnetbalanceforlargercompanies(10ormoreemployees)rosefrom+9to+11inQ2,onthebackofabiggershareoffirmswhosaidsaleshasrisenoverthepreviousthreemonths.BusinessesintheWestLondonAllianceandLocalLondongeographiessawdeclinesinthenetbalancesfordomesticsalesinQ2,butfirmsbasedintheCentralLondonForwardandSouthLondonPartnershipareasreportedariseinthesalesbalance.AcrossLondon,salesdemandjumpedformanufacturersbutfellforservicesectorbusinesses,particularlythosebasedinprofessionalservicesandthearts,entertainmentandrecreationindustries.DomesticordersfellinQ2aswell,withthenetbalancealsoturningnegative(from+2to-6).Theproportionoffirmswhosaidordershadrisenshrunkfrom20%to17%,whilemorebusinessesreportedadeclineinorders.ThedomesticordersnetbalancesfellforbothmicroandlargercompaniesinQ2,withonequarterofmicrobusinessessayingordershaddroppedoverthepriorthreemonths.Aswithsales,domesticordersinQ2improvedformanufacturersbutwereweakerinservicesectors,withthebiggestfallseeninprofessionalservices.

EXPORTDEMAND10%ofLondonbusinessesreportedanincreaseinexportsaleslastquarterofLondonbusinessesreportedanincreaseinexportorderslastquarterThelatestLondonQESdidnotpointtoanysizeablechangesinoverseasdemandinQ2,EXPORTDEMAND10%ofLondonbusinessesreportedanincreaseinexportsaleslastquarterofLondonbusinessesreportedanincreaseinexportorderslastquarterExportsalesweremarginallystronger;withthenetbalancenudgingupIpointto-2.Oneinten(10%)ofLondonfirmssaidexportsaleshadriseninthepreviousthreemonths,althoughtherewasasimilarsharewhosaidsaleshadfallen(11%),Bothmicroandlargerbusinessessawapick-upinexportsalesinQ2.Forlargerfirms,thenetbalanceclimbed10pointsto+9,with21%reportingariseinsalesoverthepreviousthreemonths.ManufacturingexportsalesweresomewhatweakerinQ2,whileservicesectorfirmsreportedasmalluptickinsalesdemand.Forexportorders,thenetbalanceslippedfrom-Ito-3lastquarterwithagreatershareoffirmsreportingadeclineinorderscomparedtoQI.Theexportordersnetbalanceformicrocompaniesdipped3pointsto-4,asoneinten(11%)saidordershaddeclinedinQ2.Bycontrast,largerfirmssawstrongerexportorderdemand,withthenetbalanceclimbing9pointsto+8.ServicesectorcompaniessawlittlechangeinexportorderdemandinQ2(netbalancerosefrom-3to-2).Inmanufacturing,theexportordersbalancedroppedsharplyonthebackofasteepdeclineindemandintheagriculture,forestry,fishingandproductionindustries.

LABOURMARKETofLondonbusinessesreportedanincreaseintheirworkforcesizelastquarter11%ofLondonbusinessesreportedanincreaseintheirworkforcesizelastquarter11%ofLondonbusinessesexpectedtheirworkforcesizetoincreaseover20%theofLondonbusinessesexpectedtheirworkforcesizetoincreaseover20%thecomingthreemonthsLondonbusinessesremainfairlyoptimisticaboutthelabourmarket,despitetherecentsmalluptickseenintheofficialunemploymentrateproducedbytheOfficeforNationalStatistics.IntheQ22022QES,theemploymentbalancerosefrom-3to0,thefirstnon-negativereadingsinceQ32019.Oneinten(11%)businessessaidthesizeoftheirworkforcehadincreasedinQ2,upfrom8%inQI.Theproportionwhosaidemploymentlevelshadfallenwasunchangedat11%.Formicrobusinesses,thenetbalanceforemploymentrose2pointsto-2,withmorefirmssayingtheirworkforcehadgrowninsize.AgreatershareoflargercompaniesalsosaidworkforcelevelshadriseninQ2(30%,versus25%inQI),buttherewasalsoariseintheshareoflargefirmswhosawadecreaseinstaffinglevels(from9%to15%).Thenetbalanceslippedfrom+16to+15.Manufacturersandservicesectorbusinessesalikesawanincreaseinthenetbalancelastquarter;withthebiggestincreasesseenininformationandcommunication,andarts,entertainmentandrecreation.Employmentexpectationsforthecomingthreemonthshaveremainedstableinthepasttwosurveys,withthenetbalanceunchangedat+12inQ2.One-fifth(20%)offirmsexpecttheirworkforcelevelstoincrease,upfrom16%intheQIQES.Howevertherewasalsoagreaterproportionoffirmsexpectingadecrease(8%,upfrom4%inQI).Thispatternwasconsistentforbothmicroandlargercompanies.

RECRUITMENTANDTRAININGofLondonbusinessesreportedthattheyhadlookedtorecruitofLondonbusinessesreportedthattheyhadlookedtorecruitinthelast20%quarterofLondonbusinessesreportedanincreaseininvestmentofLondonbusinessesreportedanincreaseininvestmentintraininglastquarter15%RecruitmentactivitybyLondonbusinessesreturnedtothepre-pandemichighinQ22022,withoneinfive(20%)firmssayingtheyhadsoughttohireinthepriorthreemonths.Thisisnearlydoubletheproportionwhowererecruitingoneyearago(11%inQ22021).TherewasnochangeintheproportionofmicrobusinesseswhowerelookingtorecruitinQ2(15%),buttherewasareboundinhiringactivitybylargercompanies(66%,upfrom59%inQI).Theuptickinhiringwasdrivenbythemanufacturingsector,withmorethanhalf(60%)ofmanufacturingfirmssayingtheyhadsoughttorecruit-upsharplyfromQI.Bycontrast,intheservicesindustriesrecruitmenteffortsslowedinQ2duetoweakerhiringactivityinthepublicsectorandhospitality.Thevastmajority(63%)offirmswhoarelookingtohirearefindingdifficultiesdoingso.ThiswasaslightdipcomparedtoQI(64%),butremainselevated.Twofifths(61%)ofmicrobusinesseswhotriedtorecruithaddifficulties,risingtotwo-thirds(67%)oflargerfirms.Thenetbalancefortraininginvestmentfellfrom+6to+2inQ22022,duetoagreatershareoffirmswhosaidtheyreducedspending(13%,upfrom9%inQI).Thiswasduetoweakertraininginvestmentfrommicrobusinesses:thenetbalancefellfrom+4to0lastquarter.Forlargercompanies,thenetbalancewasatouchhigherinQ2(upIpointto+29),

BUSINESSCOSTS75%ofLondonbusinessesreportedanincreaseintheirfuelcostslastquarter75%ofLondonbusinessesreportedanincreaseintheirfuelcostslastquarter77%ofLondonbusinessesreported77%ofLondonbusinessesreportedanincreaseintheirenergycostslastquarterItwillcomeaslittlesurprisetoseeafurtherintensificationofcostpressuresforLondonbusinessesinthelatestQuarterlyEconomicSurvey.Threequarters(77%)saidtheirenergycostshadriseninQ2comparedtothepreviousthreemonths(theenergypricecaprisecameintoeffectfromApril2022),upfrom69%inQI.Closetonineinten(89%)ofmanufacturersreportedariseintheirenergycostsinQ2,while75%ofservicesectorfirmssaidcostshadincreased.Inaddition,75%ofallLondonbusinessessaidthattheirfuelcostshadriseninQ2,upsharplyfrom61%intheQI2022QES.Morethanhalf(55%)offirmssaidthattheirdomesticrawmaterialcostsincreasedlastquarterwiththesepressuresbeingfeltmostacutelyinthemanufacturingindustries:93%ofmanufacturerssaidthatthecostofrawmaterialssourcedfromtheUKhadrisen.Forservicesectorfirms,thesharewaslower(52%),butstillsignificantWhenconsideringtheiroverseasrawmaterialcosts,49%ofallLondoncompaniesreportedanincreaseinQ2comparedtoQI.Awayfromutilities,borrowingcostsforcompaniescontinuetoaccelerate,withtwo-fifths(43%)offirmsnotingariseinQ2:thiswasupfrom31%inQI.Theproportionofmicrofirmswhosaidborrowingcostshadrisenjumpedfrom29%inQIto41%inQ2.Two-fifths(40%)ofLondoncompaniessaidpressurefromemployeestoincreasewageshadgrowninQ2,upfrom35%inQI.Only2%ofbusinessessaidtheyfelttherewaslesspressuretoraisewages,pointingtothetightlabourmarketandscrutinyonfirmstoofferhighersalaries.Unsurprisingly,thesharpincreaseinutilitiescostsisthebiggestfactorthatispressuringfirmstoraisetheirprices(63%ofallLondonfirms).Forlargercompanies(10+employees),three-fifths(60%)alsonotedlabourcostsasanupwardinflationarypressure.Morethanhalf(56%)ofLondonfirmsexpectthepricesoftheirgoodsand/orservicestoriseinthecomingthreemonths,anewhighfortheQES:thisrisesto69%oflargercompanies.

CASHFLOWANDINVESTMENT21%offirmsreportedanincreaseincashflowlastquarter21%offirmsreportedanincreaseincashflowlastquarteroffirmsreportedanincreaseininvestmentoffirmsreportedanincreaseininvestmentinplantandequipment13%CashflowformanyLondonbusinessesremainsanissueandhasnotshownsignificantsignsofrecovery.Thenetbalanceforcashflowfellfrom-5to-10inQ2,thethirdconsecutivedecline.Theproportionoffirmswhosaidtheircashflowhaddecreasedgrewfrom27%inQIto31%,whiletherewereslightlyfewerbusinesseswhoreportedanincreaseincashflow(21%inQ2,versus22%inQI).Thiswasdrivenentirelybymicrobusinesses,forwhomthecashflownetbalanceslipped5pointsto-II:nearlyathird(31%)ofmicrocompaniessaidcashflowhaddroppedlastquarter.Bycontrast,thenetbalanceforlargerfirmsclimbedfrom0to+9.TherewasasmalluptickinthenumberofcompanieswhosaidtheywereoperatingatfullcapacityinQ2(40%,upfrom39%inQI).Three-fifths(59%)oflargerbusinessessaidtheywereoperatingatfullcapacitylastquarter;upfrom53%inQI.InvestmentinplantandequipmentbyLondonbusinessesremainsweakaccordingtotheLondonQES,withthenetbalancefallingfrom+5to0inQ2.Three-quarters(74%)offirmssaidtheircapitalinvestmentplanshadnotchangedinthepreviousthreemonths.Formicrocompanies,thenetbalancefell7pointsto-4inQ2,withfewerfirmssayingtheyhadraisedinvestmentinplantandequipment.Largerbusinessesreportedanincreaseincapitalinvestmentlastquarter:thenetbalanceclimbedfrom+12to+17ManufacturersandcompaniesintheservicessectorbothreportedlowerlevelsofinvestmentinplantandequipmentinQ2,

BUSINESSCONFIDENCE36%ofLondonbusinessesexpecttheirprofitabilitytoimproveoverthecoming12months36%ofLondonbusinessesexpecttheirprofitabilitytoimproveoverthecoming12monthsOverallcompanyprospectsTurnoverexpectationsProfitabilityexpectationsofLondonbusinessesexpecttheirturnovertoimproveofLondonbusinessesexpecttheirturnovertoimproveoverthecoming12months42%BusinessconfidencedeterioratedsharplyinQ2,amidaworseningeconomicclimate.Thenetbalanceforprofitabilityexpectationsinthenext12monthsfell14pointsto+10:justoveroneinthree(36%)offirmsexpecttheircompany'sprofitabilitytoimprove,downfrom42%inQI.Inaddition,theproportionwhoexpectprofitabilitytoworsenoverthecomingyeargrewfrom18%to26%,thebiggestinfivequarters.Bothmicroandlargerbusinesseswerelessoptimisticabouttheirprofitability.Formicrofirms,thenetbalanceslippedfrom+23to+9,whileforlargercompaniestherewasaten-pointdropinthebalance(to+20).Turnoverexpectationswerelessaffected:thenetbalanceforallLondonfirmsdeclinedfrom+26to+22inQ2.Theshareoffirmswhoanticipateanimprovementintheircompany'sturnoveroverthenext12monthsactuallyincreased(from41%to42%),buttherewasalsoariseintheproportionexpectingaworsening(from15%to20%).Formicrobusinesses,theturnoverexpectationsbalancefellfrom+26to+21,duetoariseinthenumberoffirmsanticipatingafall.ThebalanceforlargerbusinessesgrewslightlyinQ2(from+30to+32).Againstabackdropofweakcashflow,intensifyingcostpressures,andsofterprofitabilityexpectations,thenetbalanceforoverallcompanyprospectsinthenext12monthsfellback