2018年全球游戏行业分析报告

2018

INDEX

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

ChinaMobileGameMarket&OverviewofGameGoingAbroad

•2017

1161

41.7%

Source:

Note:

,2008-2017

326.7%

246.9%

144.6%

87.2%

86.8%90.6%

59.2%

42.0%

25.0%

41.7%

1.5

2008

6.4

2009

9.1

2010

17.0

2011

32.4

2012

112.4

2013

274.9

2014

514.6

2015

819.2

2016

1,161.2

2017

iOS

()

•2017

•

16-25

5.5

36.0%26-35

4.9%

49.4%

57.0%

,2008-2017

248.4%

115.2%

70.2%73.7%

27.4%

43.6%

15.9%

5.28

15.1%

25.0%

4.9%

()

5.54

0.10

0.21

0.30

0.51

0.89

3.10

3.58

4.55

2008200920102011201220132014201520162017

Source:

$5

.7

$3.6

$2

.3

20

2011

20

20

20

20

20

20

•

•2017

•17

Source:

Note:

83

14.5%

MOBA

,2008-2017

219.3%

72.4%

111.0%

57.5%

69.0%

56.5%

36.2%

$72.3

28.6%

55.7%

14.5%$82.8

$53.1

$30.8

$18.2

$0

20

$1

20

($)

6.5

.0

17.

67.

9%

8.9

15.

7%

45.

8%

25.

5%

7.7

.2

10.

75.

4%

4.9

%

26.

4%

18.

9%

48.

2%

6.3

11.

8%

30.

7%

48.

0%

6.1

1.

6%

47.

1%

30.

0%

8.0

15.

1%

41.

6%

33.

0%

.2017

App

App

App

App

App

App

App

App

2016-2017

.9

10.

15.

1%

68.

6%

2016Q12016Q22016Q32016Q42017Q12017Q22017Q32017Q4

Source:

.

Source:

RPG

ClashofKings

CastleClash,KingofAvalonLordsMobile

2017

2%

2%2%

2%

2%

3%

17%

3%

3%

4%

4%

15%

5%

7%

13%

7%

8%

80

LegacyofDiscord

Source:

.

6

2018Q1

2%

4%

5%

4%

13%

59%

13%

2017

2017

•

•

App

•

6

GlobalMobileGameMarket&ConsumerInsights

APAC

Source:

Note:

-

1379

•2018

13.3%

16.8%

•

8.6%

9.5%

,

$32.7BN

+10.0%YoY

199.9MMGamers

+7.5%YoY

$28.7BN

20.8%

23.7%

+8.8%YoY684.8MMGamers+5.0%YoY

2018e

$137.9BN

+13.3%YoY

USA$30.4BN

+10.1%YoY

China$37.9BN

3.6%

+17.1%YoY

2.4BNGamers

+7.6%YoY

$5.0BN

+13.5%YoY

234.1MMGamers+9.5%YoY

(,)$71.4BN

51.8%

+16.8%YoY

1,234.2MMGamers+8.6%YoY

Source:

•2018

•

-

25.5%

60%

PC

2021

PC

$33.0BN

$70.3BN

+25.5%YoY

2,228.7MMGamers+8.7%YoY

+1.6%YoY

3%

1,268.5MMGamers

+5.1%YoY

21%

2018e$137.9BN

+13.3%YoY

2.4BNGamers

+7.6%YoY

$4.3BN

41%

-13.9%YoY

$56.4BN

+29.0%YoY

/

$28.6BN

25%

+4.5%YoY

$13.9BN

10%

+13.1%YoY

$34.6BN

+4.1%YoY

638.3MMGamers

+1.2%YoY

PC

$34.8BN

+2.1%YoY

1,366.1MMGamers+2.2%YoY

$2.5BN

-16.4%YoY

/

$32.3BN

$106.4BN

1%

+12.9%YoY

18%

2,621.2MMGamers+5.3%YoY

2021e

$180.1BN

$88.5BN

49%

+8.6%YoY

+14.0%YoY

2.8BN

Gamers

22%

+5.1%YoY

+3.9%YoY

$17.8BN

+7.3%YoY

10%

$39.0BN

+3.8%YoY

683.9MMGamers

+2.1%YoY

1/3

•

23.1%

1/5

22.5%

•

/

2018

$13.0BN(18.5%)

+22.5%YoY

184.6MMGamers(8.3%)+9.5%YoY

$2.2BN(3.1%)

+29.4%YoY

219.7MMGamers(9.9%)+10.5%YoY

$7.2BN(10.2%)

+13.1%YoY

316.8MMGamers(14.2%)+5.5%YoY

(&)

$20.7BN(29.4%)+23.1%YoY

$3.2BN(4.5%)

+36.8%YoY

355.7MMGamers(16.0%)

$1.1BN(1.5%)+12.5%YoY

+67.0%YoY

238.4MMGamers(10.7%)

+8.0%YoY

315.4MMGamers(14.2%)

+7.6%YoY

,

Source:

Note:

创新浪潮的催化剂

AR/VR

硬件

精细运营的转折点

软件

IP

游戏公司的泛娱乐化

IP

模式

Source:

.2017

3/4

Source:

App

App

iOSApp

30%30%

70%

70%2016

2017

iOSApp

22%

18%

2016

78%

2017

82%

App

App

App

App

App

iOS

App

GPApp

42%

57%58%

2016

2017

43%

GPApp

11%2017

8%

92%

2016

89%

2017

AppApp

AppApp

3/4

App

•2017App16App78.7%2022App19

Source:

Note:

iOS,GP

$20.94

$4.45

$16.49

2017

App

$23.65

$5.50

$18.15

2018e

,

2017-2022e

$25.65

$7.05

$18.60

2022e

App

App

•

Source:

4

76%iOS

20185

0.31%0.26%2.69%

0.49%

18.97%

76.53%

Android

iOS

Windows

Series40

Samsung

.2017(

15.93%.

)

iOS

App

App3.02%

()

(*

23.85

2.70

5.14

6.94

335.6

13.83%

iOS

iOS/GPApp

)

27.65

2.64

5.70

7.38

(BN)

iOS

iOS

iOS

iOS

GP

GP

GP

82.39%

GP

5.631.361.75

2.06

7.50

5.80

1.40

1.81

2.13

10.16

iOS

iOS

GP

GP

Source:20162017

Note:

App

.

.

201753.17%

()17.05%

iOS

52.12%49.21%

App

15.67%

256.9

16.40%

iOS

iOS

App

(

$11.67$1.47

$3.88

$6.09

)iOS/GPApp($BN)

(*)

$10.40

$1.64

$2.78

$5.67

$13.66$1.71

$4.51

$7.12

$12.03

$2.05

$3.62

$5.92

ios

ios

ios

ios

ios

ios

GP

GP

GP

GP

GP

GP

Source:20162017

Note:

•

Source:

60%

2017

()

59.60%

34.75%

31.31%

15.79%

15.51%

13.72%

10.53%

8.89%

8.26%

•

•

2018()($MM)

$4,577,

10%

$5,650,

12%

$9,458,20%

$9,051,

19%

$9,927,

21%

$8,682,

18%

Source:

Note:

///

APAC

$690,

9%

$548,8%

$958,

$1,141,

7%

$3,544,

27%

$2,097,

29%

9%

$838,

12%

$2,058,

16%

$2,698,

21%

$1,797,

25%

$2,640,

20%

$1,202,

17%

///

///

MOBA

///

•

•

•

2018

$160,7%

$232,11%

$208,9%

$412,

19%

Source:

Note:APAC

,

($MM)

$714,

32%

$485,

22%

///

(Cont.)

,

,

()

$2,208,

10%$1,959,

9%

$2,385,

11%

$3,332,

15%

$7,033,33%

$4,833,

22%

///

,

$489,15%

$237,8%

$285,9%

$473,15%

$1,145,36%

$544,

17%

///

Note:10-65

•

•

80%

1/3

2017

80%

86%

1/3

32%

37%

Source:

32%

48%

App

•

App30

6%

2017

App

Source:

39.9%

Day1

23.8%

Day3

18.9%

Day6

12.6%

Day10

7.7%

Day16

6.7%

Day21

5.9%

Day27

App

App

•iOS

•

/

26%

2017

App

,,

$201.71

$85.23

$112.40

$76.98

$67.57

$76.40

$62.11

1.4%

3.0%

4.0%

5.4%

6.6%

9.8%

4.9%

Source:

App

/

•App

•2017

App

2017

App

Benchmark

Source:

$3.82

$8.86

$76.40

$3.82

$8.90

$82.47

$3.83

$8.82

$70.34

43.2%

5.0%

42.9%

4.6%

43.5%

5.5%

•

•

•

Source:

AppCPI

$2

CPI$3

CPI

CPI

CPI

$2

$8.6

CPI201701-201806

$10.00

$9.00

$8.00

$7.00

$6.00

$5.00

$4.00

$3.00

$2.00

$1.00

$0.00

/,4%

App

•

App

Source:

53%

2017

43%

App

,1%

,3%

,19%

,43%

,31%

•2018Q1$70.27

•3.2%27.6%

•3.6%

34.4%

90

41

90

90

$1.703.8%

$1.56;4.7%iOS90$1.99

$1.313.8%90$1.76

90

$1.70

90

$70.27

3.8%

Source:

Note:

•

30

30

($)

90

2018Q1

Source:

Note:

•

Source:

Note:

($)

90

2018Q1

•2018

31.2

2022

32.11

(ARPU)2016-2022e

$29.82

$30.64

$31.20

$31.57

$31.82

$31.99

$32.11

Source:201620172018e2019e2020e2021e2022e

•

iOS

•

31.9%

App

($46.44)

2017

$94.4

$3.7,

App

($40.21)15.5%iOS

iOS

(90

)

App

iOS

$70.2

$62.7

$44.3$40.9$40.1$36.9

$81.8

$74.4

$56.4

iOS

$27.7$17.3

$44.8

$44.3

$29.7$25.2

$36.3$35.0

$1.6$1.2$1.1$1.2$1.1$1.9

$1.8

$2.0$1.7$1.8$2.2

(90)

$1.8$1.4

$3.7$4.1

$4.5$4.8

$2.1

Source:

iOS

•

2.8%

•

•

Source:

Note:

1.1%

1.3%

1.9%

0.6%

2018Q1

3.4%

3.1%

2.9%

2.9%

2.7%

2.8%

1.9%

1.9%

1.8%

1.6%

2.1%

1.5%

1.0%

2.1%

1.2%

1.3%

1.3%

1.3%

1.1%

0.9%

0.8%

0.3%

1.1%

0.7%

0.6%

0.6%

0.3%

0.2%

2.1%

3%

1.8%

30

7

3

1

•1/3

•

2018Q190

Source:

Note:

33

%

16

%

19

%

32

%

31

%

9

15

%

46

%

30

%

9

16

%

45

%

30

%

10

%

16

%

44

%

28

%

9

17

%

46

%

26

%

11

%

19

%

44

%

25

%

10

18

%

48

%

3

3

2

1

Source:

•

201501-201709

25

•

25

2017

Source:

32%

33%

36%

27%

37%

37%

48%

25%

28%

45%

25%

30%

46%

25%

29%

26%

56%

19%

1355%33%

13-24

25-44

45

•

App

iOS

iOS

•1/3

•

•iOS

•

App

2017

2017

•App

AdSpending&Forecast

$716.21

$109.

82

$253.

87

$263.

53

2020e

$755.09

$112.

22

$274.

34

$276.

12

2021e

$672.94

$628.63

$107.

35

$232.

14

$248.

09

$585.45

$101.

$190.

05

$218.

16

$104.

57

$210.

43

$232.

48

$543.75

$98.

$170.

68

$203.

57

YoY%

6286

2022

7932

7.4%

•2018

18

10%

•

2022

(2016-2022e)

($BN)

7.4%

7.7%

6.9%

7.0%

6.4%

5.4%

5.1%

&

$793.25

$114.

76

$293.

67

$289.

04

2017

2016

2018e

2019e

Source:

2022e

Note:

/PC

$357.31

$49.

$148.

07

$164.

38

$47.

$132.

23

$149.

43

21

$316.42

$44.

$114.

37

$132.

15

50

$273.29

1.

$96.

78

$112.

91

$232.27

$192.06

$38.

$80.

08

$95.25

2017

$76.

43.5%

.2018

2732

17.7%

43.5%

2020

.1848%

18.5%

Source:

Note:

($BN)

(2016-2022e)

43.5%

17.7%

47.0%

15.8%

39.7%

20.9%

49.9%

35.3%

53.9%

8.6%

52.1%

12.9%

20.5%

10.1%

$427.26

$393.50

$52.

$161.

81

$179.

15

$34.

5.

66

42

2016

2019e

2021e

2020e

2018e

2022e

/PC

&

YoY%

$203.30

$182.94

$20.70

$82.0

2

$87.7

6

$160.09

$19.33$72.5

6

$79.5

2

$135.78

$17.95$61.9

9$69.9

6

$112.66

$16.46$51.5

3

$89.28

$15.03$41.6

$13.44$32.8

$37.0

$58.9

8

2018e

$48.6

5

2017

•2018

2222

•

1357

20.5%

18

49.7%

21%

2022

($BN)

(2016-2022e)

Source:

Note:

30.2%

26.2%

20.5%

14.3%

17.9%

9.3%

11.1%

$222.29

22.0

$90.1

6

$96.0

0

4

2016

2021e

2020e

2019e

2022e

/PC

&

YoY%

$48.7

$137.72

$56.6

3

$155.14

$170.53

20.9$46.8

3

22.2$54.0

1$64.0

9

23.3

$60.38$70.6

0

43.8%

•2018

•

18

1196

16.7%

16.7%Google

20%

($BN)

(2016-2022e)

&

18.0%

15.1%

14.3%

16.7%

12.6%

8.4%

9.9%

Source:

Note:

$86.90

$16.

7.6

$35.0

2016

/PC

$102.58

$17.933.0

$41.7

5

2017

$119.69

$19.539.8

3

2018e

2019e

2020e

2021e

$184.87

$24.3$65.91

$76.9

6

2022e

YoY%

$224.06

$183.83

$29.46$86.2

4$95.1

5

$143.164$20.5

$63.5

$25.

45

42

$69.

$106.28$15.45

$52.2

$37.83$48.66

$78.

87

2018e

.2018

.

32%

Source:

Note:

1838

2022

29.2%

28.4%

41%

33%

50%

($BN)

(2016-2022e)

52.6%

41.9%

34.7%

36.8%

17.5%

39.7%

33.3%

29.2%

19.5%

11.0%

$332.5039.2

$130.

93

$138.

07

13.8%

28.4%

24.5%

21.9%

$299.47

6.

$117.71

$125.

03

$263.25

$33.1

$102.

71

$110.

72

4

2017

2016

2019e

2020e

2021e

2022e

18

67.3%

&

YoY%

2017

2017

•

2022

•40%70%Google

•1/3

ConsumerSocialMediaHabits

40.1%

4.3%

291.7.

22.

22.

31.

329.

1

1,723.

5

243.

27.

26.

36.

2

1,813.

7

339.

282157.8.16. 18. 26.319.

3

1,617.

6

2475.9186.99.07.15.93.

2

1,373.

9

2017

2019e

2021e

2020e

•201835%

•

73.5%

Source:

26.56.9%

72.4%

1856.5%8.9%

(MM)2017-2021e

71.5%72.4%73.4%74.1%74.6%

37.3%

6.4%

35.4%

6.9%

33.5%

8.7%

38.8%

5.1%

3086.6

2647.6

202. 08. 13.21.04.

9

1,496.

7

2018e

36.5%

&

YoY%()()

232.

83.

96.

18.

5

1,554.

6

325.

2407.7

216.

77.

91.

13.

4

1,453.

7

313.

199.

70.

86.

08.

3300.

8

1,341.

9

2043.2

163.

150.4174. 93.62.

6

1,099.

1

5

2017

2019e

2021e

2020e

.2018

.

Source:

22.39.2%84.2%30%

1854.8%

(MM)2017-2021e

82.5%84.2%85.5%86.7%87.8%

33.6%

6.6%

31.9%

27.6%

29.8%

9.2%

35.2%

5.6

270.6

7.9%

12.3%

2566.5

2230.5

181. 61. 81.02.83.

5

1,221.

5

2018e

11.1%

&

YoY%

()

()

Facebook

.Facebook

Source:

21.6

2018

YouTubeInstagramTumblr(MM)

FacebookYouTube

WhatsApp

FBMessengerWechat

QQInstagramTumblr

2,1

1,500

1,300

1,300

98

8430

800

794

5

6

Qzone

SinaWeibo376

Twitter33

BaiduTieba30

Skype0

LinkedIn2060

Viber260

Snapchat255

Reddit250

Line203

Pinterest200

yy117

Telegram100

Vkontakte97

BBM63

Kakaotalk49

126

2016

•

Source:

109

2015

2015-2017

15.6%

7.1%

135

2017

()

YoY%

Source:

•

2017

()

237

219

203

190189189187

182

180

176176174

168168

157

154

146144

139

130

126123121121120

116114113113

108107

102

999894

82

80

7372

48

Source:

7Google

•7Google

3

PC

2017Google

,8%

,60%

PC,32%

GooglePC

.20184Google

90%

Source:

PC

2018

86%

86.28%

80%Yahoo

Google

6

Google

PC

94.39%93.78%

90.67%90.00%

88.58%86.76%86.37%

85.43%

83.47%

81.80%

78.81%

69.25%

52.66%

38.96%

5.72%

Google

Facebook80%

.Facebook80%PinterestTwitter

Facebook

Pinterest

Twitter

YouTube

Instagram

Reddit

Tumblr

Source:

/

2017

80.31%

82.26%

8.39%

9.64%

6.01%

4.79%

1.82%

1.18%

1.07%

1.39%

0.83%

0.70%

0.18%

0.87%

0.56%

Facebook

•Facebook

•

Facebook

18-34

76.2%

2018

58%

Facebook

iOS

15.5%

56%

44%

4%4%

17%

12%

17%

12%

9%

7%

5%5%

3%2%

2%2%

13-1718-2425-3435-4445-5455-6465

Source:

Source:

Instagram

40%

•Instagram

2018

Instagram

(/

)

47%

41%

38%

36%36%

35%35%35%

34%

32%32%32%

31%31%31%

30%30%

28%

27%27%

26%

22%22%

20%20%

19%19%

17%

15%

14%

11%

10%10%

Instagram

•Instagram

18-34

61%

2018Instagram

Source:

51%

49%

3%4%

13-17

16%15%

18-24

15%15%

25-34

8%9%

35-44

4%5%

45-54

2%2%

55-64

1%1%

65

2017

2017

•

/

82.4%

/

•

•Facebook80%Facebook

•

Instagram

Ads&Channel

$316.42

$30.

$45.

$83.

99

$273.29

$24.

0.

$232.27

$35.65$65.90

2017

$192.06

$24.

7.

$75.

56

Google

•2018

•Google18

Source:

2732

18

17.7%

27.6%

92.4%

($BN)

2016-2020e

20.5%

20.9%

17.7%

15.8%

12.9%

$357.31

$37.

$49.

$92.

63

01

2018e

2016

2019e

2020e

14.7%Snapchat

IAC

Yelp

Sohu

Pandora

Snapchat

LinkedIn

Sina

Twitter

Amazon

Yahoo

Microsoft(excl.LinkedIn)Instagram

Tencent

YouTube

Baidu

Alibaba

Facebook(excl.Instagram)Google(excl.YouTube)

YoY%

$224.06

$29.

$41.

26

$73.

20

2019e

$183.83

3.

$36.

$61.2

6

2018e

$143.16

$16.

9.

$106.28

$20.58$37.57

$49.

72

2017

GoogleFacebookSnapchat

•2018183828.4%

•Google1/323.2%Facebook1/528.1%AmazonSnapchat122.1%92.4%

Source:

($BN)

2016-2020e

52.6%

34.7%

28.4%

21.9%

17.5%

$263.25

$35.

$45.

90

$86.

11

2016

2020e

Yelp

Yellowpages

Sohu

Pandora

Amazon

Snapchat

Yahoo

Twitter

Tencent

Instagram

Baidu

Alibaba

Facebook(excl.Instagram)

Google

YoY%

$39.9

4

2017

Facebook

•2018

•Facebook

1302

37.5%

20.5%

22.3%

Source:

30.2%

$89.28

$26.89

2016

26.2%

$112.66

$12.7

13.5

2

($BN)

20.5%

$130.26

$14.2 18.30$48.8

5

2018e

2016-2020e

17.9%

$152.98

$15.8

23.2

$57.6

1

2019e

14.3%

$182.94

$17.3$28.4

$66.89

2020e

SohuLinkedIn

YahooTwitterBaiduGoogleAlibabaFacebook

YoY%

$137.72

$78.6

2

$119.69

$70.4

7

$102.58

$60.9

5

$86.90

$52.31

Google

•2018

•Google

1196

18

16.7%

58.9%

15.6%

Source:

($BN)

2016-2020e

18.0%

16.7%

14.3%

15.1%

12.6%

$155.14

$87.0

6

2016

2017

2018e

2019e

2020e

Sohu

Yahoo

Microsoft

Baidu

Google

YoY%

94%

66%

62%

56%

50%

27%

3%

Facebook

•FacebookInstagramYouTube,Pinterest

•Facebook

2018

Facebook

Instagram

Twitter

LinkedIn

YouTube

Pinterest

8%

Snapchat

Source:

12%

2018

Facebook

Instagram

LinkedIn

YouTube

Twitter

Pin