PitchBook-2023年1季度金融科技与支付公共薪酬表和估值指南（英）

EMERGINGTECHRESEARCH

Fintech&Payments

PublicCompSheet

andValuationGuide

Q1

2023

Keytakeaways

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•Themarketwantsprofit:Q1’svaluationsshowthatthemarketcontinuestofavorprofitabilityoverprofitlessgrowth.Illustratingthis,theNasdaqroseby16.8%inQ1,butthestocksofmanyofthefastest-growingfintechswereroughlyflatorevendown.

•Valuationsremaindepressed:Valuationsremainatlows,withtheneobanks,brokers,andcryptocohorttradingatamedianenterprisevalue(EV)/next12-months(NTM)revenuemultipleof1.9xonMarch31,2023,comparedwithQ12023’s1.9xand2022’s4.2x.High-growthfintechandhigh-growthpaymentsshowedsimilartrends.

•LowvaluationsleadVCstoprotecttheirinvestmentsthroughstrategicchange:InlateMarch,OscarHealthannouncedthatitsco-founderandcurrentCEO,MarioSchlosser,wouldbereplacedbyMarkBertolini,formerCEOofAetna.Thechangesignalsapeacefultransitionintendedtobringinbest-in-classleadershipandoperationalandmanagerialexpertise.Manynewlypublicfintechsarestillpartlyownedbytheirventureinvestors,whoareloathtoforceasalebecausefuturestartupfounderscouldviewtheventurecapitalistasthreatening.AnewCEOrepresentsagoodmiddleground.WeexpectrecentlypublicfintechstotakenoticeofOscar’sannouncement.Overthenextfewyears,ourthesisisthatmostnewlypublicfintechswithdepressedstockpriceswilllikelyfitintofourbuckets:leadershipchangeaccompaniedbyapushforastrategyrefresh,operationalexcellence,and/orcostreductions(OscarHealth);acquisitionbyacompetitor,complementarybusiness,orincumbent(Lemonade’spurchaseofMetromile);PIPEinvestmentoncestockpricesrebound;continueworkingtowardscaleandpotentiallylaunchnewproducts(MoneyLion).

Q12023FINTECH&PAYMENTSPUBLICCOMPSHEET

PitchBookData,Inc.

JohnGabbertFounder,CEO

NizarTarhuniVicePresident,InstitutionalResearchandEditorial

PaulCondraHeadofEmergingTechnologyResearch

InstitutionalResearchGroup

Analysis

RudyYang

SeniorAnalyst,Emerging

Technology

rudy.yang@

JamesUlan

LeadAnalyst,Emerging

Technology

james.ulan@

pbinstitutionalresearch@

PublishedonApril3,2023

Wewelcomeyourfeedback,questions,andideas.Sendcommentsto

JamesUlan

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RudyYang

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ANDVALUATIONGUIDE2

First-timeM&Aunderscoresdesiretogrowbynewlypublicfintechs,despitelowvaluations:PagayaandMarqetaclosedtheirfirstacquisitionsinQ1.Webelievethattheymadethesepurchasestosustainrevenuegrowth.Likethemajorityoffast-growthcompanies,theyaresubjecttothelawoflargenumbers,andthusorganicrevenuegrowthratesinevitablydecelerated.Bothcompaniesgeneratedover100%annualgrowthinsomeyearsandaredownshiftingtoa10%to30%ratein2023to2025.Weexpectfurtheracquisitionsfromcompaniesthatgeneratefreecashflowandhavecashandborrowingcapacity.Acquirersappeartobepursuingmultiplegoals—quicklyacquiringnewproductsandservicestocross-sellwhilereducingexecutionrisk,incrementalrevenuegrowth,defensivepositioning,generatingprofitthroughscale,addingtalent,andmore.Theseacquisitionsunderscoretheirambitionandwherewithaltoexecutedespitelowerstockprices.

•2024revenueestimatesdeclining:Weexpectadecelerationinrevenuegrowthaspublicmarketsinvestorspressurefast-growth,low-profitcompaniestocutexpensesinordertoreachprofitability.Indeed,mutualfundandhedgefundinvestorshavealowertoleranceforlackofprofitability.Estimated2024revenueforneobanks,brokers,andcryptodeclinedfrom$18.7billionprojectedasofDecember31,2022,to$17.4billionprojectedasofMarch31,2023,drivenmostlybyCoinbase.Overthesametimeframeandestimationdates,high-growthpaymentsrevenueforecastsdeclinedfrom$35.7billionto$35.5billion,high-growthfintechdeclinedfrom$5.9billionto$5.5billion,andpropertytech(proptech)declinedfrom$25.0billionto$18.1billion.

•Marketcapsrevealwhichfintechcohortshavesucceededandwhichhaven’tdelivered:ThemarketcaprosefromDecember31,2022,toMarch31,2023,fortheneobankscohort,high-growthpaymentscohort,andhigh-growthfintechcohort,whileitdeclinedfortheinsurtechcohort.Ourinsurtechmarketcapwas$3.5billiononMarch31,comparedwith$18.9billionoftotalcapitalraisedbythesecompanies;theneobanks,brokers,andcryptomarketcapwas$52.5billion,versus$20.0billionraised;thehigh-growthpaymentsmarketcapwas$123.0billion,versus$9.5billionraised;andthehigh-growthfintechmarketcapwas$11.7billion,versus$7.3billionraised.

NEWADDITIONS:Inthisedition,weaddedalistofM&AdealsinwhichpublicfintechandpaymentscompaniesacquirednewfirmsinQ12023.Wealsoaddedgrossincome,andlastquarter,weaddedvaluationsofaselectgroupofprivatefintechcompanies.

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ANDVALUATIONGUIDE3

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Stockreturns

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Valuations

Source:PitchBook|

Geography:Global|*AsofMarch31,2022

Source:PitchBook|Geography:Global|*AsofMarch31,2022

Source:PitchBook|Geography:Global|*AsofMarch31,2022

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Revenue

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Revenue

*ForSoFi,Nubank,andUpstart,weusemarketcapinsteadofenterprisevalueduetodatalimitations.

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EBITDA

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EBITDA

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Grossincome

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Grossincome

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M&A

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M&A

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Freecashflow

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Freecashflow

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Earningspershare

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Earningspershare

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Marketcap

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Privatecompanyvaluations

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ESG

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ESG

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Traditionalfinancialscomparables

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Traditionalfinancialscomparables

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