棉花研究分析

棉花争论分析分类：按长度来分，棉花分为长绒棉和细绒棉，细绒棉的长度一般在25~31毫米，长绒棉的长度在按长度来分，棉花分为长绒棉和细绒棉，细绒棉的长度一般在25~31毫米，长绒棉的长度在3399%23~333.3~54500~6400米/克。棉籽肥大，着生有灰白色短绒。Classification:(1)CottonbasicclassificationAccordingtothelength,cottonintolong-staplecottonandcotton,linencottonlengthgenerallyin25~31mm,thelengthoftheleadingproduceroflong-staplecottonin33mmandabove.Rawcottonfromabout99%inourcountryasthefinecotton.Normalmatureoffinecotton,colorwhite,whiteormilkywhite,fibersoftsilk,23to33mminlength,singlefiberstrength3.3~5g,finenessof4500~6400m/g.Hypertrophyofcottonseed,bornwithgreylinter.〔二〕棉花质量主要指标品级。品级是指棉花品质的级别。依据棉花的成熟程度、色泽特征和轧工质量，773主体品级：含有相邻品级的一批棉花中，所占比例80%及以上的品级。同一批棉花中，除了主体品级的比例到达80%及以上外，还不允许有跨主体品级的棉花。不符者应挑包整理或协商处理。〔注：跨主体品级是指主体品级及其上下相邻品级之外的其它品级，即同一批棉花中，不能有与主体品级相差2〕。如：一批棉花中，(1110%，280%，3102〔2〕110%，275%，315%，则该批棉花无主体品级〔没有占到80%及以上的级别〕，需重整〔3〕190%，31019031长度。棉花长度是指棉纤维伸直后的长度。国家标准规定：以1毫米为级距，承受72525.92626.0—26.92727.0—27.92828.8—28.92929.0—29.93030.0—30.93131.0527276、725283．马克隆值。这是反映棉花成熟程度和细度的综合指标，国家标准规定分为A、B、C三个级，标准级是BA3.7-4.2；B3.5-3.6，4.3-4.9；C3.45.0(2)ThequalityofcottonmainindicatorsThegrades.Gradereferstothecottonqualitylevel.Accordingtothematuredegreeofcotton,colorcharacteristicsandtherollingqualityofwork,isdividedintosevenlevels,level7levelasbelow.Qualitystandardislevel3.Thesubjectgrades:abatchofcotton,containingadjacentgradeproportionofgradeof80%ormore.Withabatchofcotton,inadditiontosubjectgradeproportionreached80%ormore,alsonotallowedtohavecrosssubjectgradesofcotton.Inconsistentshouldchoosepackagesortingornegotiationprocess.(note:crosssubjectgradequalityreferstothesubjectanditsadjacentgradeotherthangrades,thatisthesameinthecotton,therecanbedifferwiththesubjectgradecottongradetwoandabove).Suchas:agroupofcotton,if(1)level1(10%),2(80%),3(10%),themainbodyofthebatchofcottongradeisgrade2.(2)ifthelevel1(10%),2(75%),3(15%),thenthisbatchofcottonwithoutsubjectgrades(no)accountedfor80%andabovelevel,needtorearrange.(3)ifthelevel1(90%),3(10%),whilethesubjectgradelevel1ratioof90%,butthereisalevel3cotton,isacrosssubjectofgrade1levelrange,thebatchofcottondoesnotaccordwiththerequirementofnationalstandard,needtorearrange.Length.Thecottonlengthreferstothelengthofcottonfiberafterthestraight.Standardregulationsofthestate:1mmasnotches,adopttheprincipleof“length“,isdividedintosevenlevels.Classificationisasfollows:25mm,including25.9mmandbelow;26mm,including26.0-26.9mm;mm,including27.0-27.9mm;mm,including28.8-28.9mm;mm,including29.0-29.9mm;mm,including30.0-30.9mm;mm,including31.0mmandabove.Level5cottonlengthis27mm,accordingto27millimeters;Level6or7cottonlengtharecalculatedby25millimeters.Thestandardlengthis28mm.Theincompatiblemicronaire.Thisiscottonmaturityandfinenessofcomprehensiveindex,thestandardprovisionsThisiscottonmaturityandfinenessofcomprehensiveindex,thestandardprovisionsofthestateisdividedintoA,B,Cthreelevel,standardlevelisclassB.Atalllevelsoftherangeis:ClassA:3.7-4.2;B:3.5-3.5,3.6-4.9;ClassC:andunder3.4,5.0andabove.〔三〕以下为我国各主产棉省推广面积50万亩以上的主要品种及育成品种〔系〕的介绍1〕鲁棉品种2〕豫棉品种3)疆棉品〔3〕Theintroductionofcottonvarietiesinourcountrybelowforourcountrythemainareaofmorethan500000acres,themainvarietiesandbreedingnewvarieties(orlines)isintroducedasfollows：1)Shandong cotton 2)Henan cottonvarieties3)XinJiangCottonvarieties—鲁棉品种—Shandong—鲁棉品种—Shandongcottonvarieties—豫棉品种—Henan cottonvarieties—疆棉品种—XinJiangCottonvarieties价格走势：棉价后市分析〔2023棉花市场分析及2023价格推测〕1、棉价走势预期内棉价仍将保持低位运行，上涨空间有限。策仍有期盼，因此存棉不卖。的快速增加，棉价后期仍会呈现下行趋势。2、从国际方面看局部国家棉花种植面积增加，全球棉花库存偏高，随着棉花规模上市，国际迷仍将持续一段时间。图二进口棉花价格指数与国内棉花价格指数的比较3、从国内市场来看13000/400/吨。疆站台提货价目前在14200-14400/吨，运至山东、河北的本钱价在14700-14900/吨，较上周下跌200元/吨，成交清淡。期货市场方面，近期郑棉CF1501合约、CF1505合约13000/吨下方运行，ICE60/磅下方波动，市场悲观气氛较浓。近期棉价大跌的主要缘由：1125日疆地区棉花加工已完成263余万吨，入库239.9万吨，已接近总产量的30060060，12420社会库存，由纺企、棉企、棉商共同分担。但由于资金及经营状况方面的压力，11纤维长度、马值等指标不达标。11-121综上所述，目前棉花价格已处于历史低位，估量1120231一是农业部数据显示，今年全国棉花种植面积比去年下降8.7%，全年棉花产量比上年有所削减;二是企业挺价，国内一些大型棉商、轧花厂表示将坚持棉花报价不变，给市场带来些许支撑。92023疆棉价格在13700-13800元/吨，内地山东、江苏、河南、河北等地仓库报价14400-14600疆棉价格在13700-13800元/吨，内地山东、江苏、河南、河北等地仓库报价14400-14600元/吨(毛重提货)，但用棉企业询价、选购的乐观性仍不高。PricesTendency:Cottonprices(2023cottonmarketanalysisand2023priceforecast)1,ThecottonpricetrendforecastNationalcancelreservepolicythisyear,whetherfarmersandsellersorcottonspinningenterprise,isexpectedtodomesticcottonpriceswillremainlow,limitedupside.Cottonfarmerscomprehensivethought,thepriceofcottonandcottonfarmersfarthepoorpsychologicalexpectations,psychologicalseriousrised.Cottonfarmersknowverylittleaboutthestateshallpractiseatargetpricemanagementpolicy,thenationalrelevantpoliciesarestilllookingforwardtonext,sodon”tsellcotton.Processingenterprisesbelievethatthedomesticcottonpricesthisyearhasbeen“dive“,asthesizeofthecrop,rapidincreaseofsupply,priceswillstillbelatepresentsdownwardtrend.2,FromtheinternationalsidePartofthenationalcottonplantingareaincreased,globalinventoriesonthehighside,asthescaleofcotton,internationalcottonpricesfell.Atthesametime,foreignpriceslowerthandomesticcottonprices,cottonhasapriceadvantage,textileenterprisesprefergoodqualitylowpriceofcotton.Intheshortterm,thepatternoftheexcesssupplyofcottonisdifficulttoreverse,cottonpricesdownturnstillisexpectedtolastforaperiodoftime.Figure2importedcottonpricesanddomesticcottonpricesindexincomparison3,FromthedomesticmarketNovember10-nationalyarnquantitydeclinefortwoconsecutivemonths,hebeishangdongandhenanprovinceyarnpricesremainoscillationadjustmentpatternofthemarket,inordertoreduceinventories,machinestillnotsaturated,thedownstreamenterprises lack of demand for cotton, domestic cotton in a wave of pricecuts.ShandonglargeFangQihavecutcottonDaoChangJia,attheendofNovember3128gradecottonpriceshavedroppedto13000yuan/ton,down400yuan/tonfromlastweek.Xinjiangplatformdeliverypriceisin14200-14400yuan/ton,shippedtothecostpriceofshandong,hebeiin14700-14900yuan/ton,downfromlastweek200yuan/ton,lightvolume.Thefuturesmarket,therecentzhengcottonCF1501contracts,CF1505contractsarerununder13000 yuan/ton,ICEperiodcottonunder60cents/pound,marketpessimisticatmosphereisstrong.Themainreasonfortherecentcottonpricesplunge:Oneistheincreasedsupply.Sincemid-november,pickupcottonhandpickingcotton in xinjiang, focus on the market.As of November 25, xinjiang cottonprocessinghascompletedmorethan263tenthousandtons,2.399milliontonsofinventory,iscloseto66%ofthetotaloutput.Ifcombinedwith200typeenterprise,thepilotprogramofthe“targetprice“,FangQiprocessingfactoryproductionofcotton,isexpectedtoxinjiangcottonhasfinishedinatleast3milliontons.Second, the output and consumption imbalance.Three years,collection storageperiodforthemostpartprocessingcottonintotherepository.Iftheoutputof6milliontons,600000tonsofmonthlyconsumptiontocalculate,aftertheendofDecember4.2milliontonsofinventoryinasocietybyFangQicotton,cottonmills,tradersshare.Butasaresultofpressureoncapitalandoperatingsituation,mostFangQiadheretobuyalongwithit,somostoftheinventorypressurewillfocustocottonginningmillandcotton.EspeciallyinmidtolateNovember,cottonwassignificantly higher than that of sales, cotton ginning mill inventory continuestogrow.Thirdisthecottonqualityisunsatisfactory.Domesticcottonblendedmixlevelandthreeproblemssuchasserious,morecolorcotton,fiberlength,horsevalueindicatorssuchassubstandardhousing.AtpresentthereareprofessionalandCARDSinadditiontothe400typepackercottonfactory,buyasmallamountofstatereservecotton,thevastmajorityofprocessing enterprises purchase progress is slow.A large number of listedconcentrationofthecropinNovemberandDecember,whenthecottonpurchaseprices,priceformingpressingforJanuary.Tosumup,thepriceofcottonhasbeenhistoricallylow,isexpectedtotheendofNovembertoearlyJanuary2023cottonpriceswilltrendoscillationdip.Butisunlikelytodepthofcottonpricescontinuetofall,themainreasons:oneistheministryofagriculture,accordingtodatafromthenational cottonacreagethisyearthanlastyearfell8.7%,annualoutput