CBRE+2023爱尔兰物流信心指数-52正式版

LatestMarketTrends&OccupierInsightsCBREKINGSPANIRELANDLOGISTICSCONFIDENCEINDEX2023每日免费获取报告1、每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告；2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报；3、每周分享经济学人4、行研报告均为公开版，权利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫二维码关注公号回复：研究报告加入“起点财经”微信群。。Contents125INTRODUCTION6CBREMARKETOUTLOOK8KINGSPANVIEWPOINT10MEASURINGCONFIDENCE13RESPONDENTS5620BUSINESSCONFIDENCEFORECASTFORTHENEXT12MONTHS22GROWTHOPPORTUNITIES2AllfiguresanddatarelatingtotheCBREKingspanIrelandLogistics&SupplyChainConfidenceIndexwithinthisreporthavebeenresearchedbyAnalytiqa.Analytiqaisamarketanalysiscompanyprovidingpublishedreports,bespokeresearchandstrategicadvisoryformultinationalclientsacrossallsectorsandindustryverticalsoftheglobalsupplychain.Analytiqadelivershighquality,commerciallyrelevantresearchtoassistclientstogrowandprofitinchallengingandcompetitivemarkets.Analytiqa3417HOWCONFIDENTISTHEIRISHLOGISTICSSECTOR?18BUSINESSCONFIDENCECOMPAREDTO12MONTHSAGO7830KEYISSUES46EIGHTYEARTRENDS3950CONTACTDETAILS/ABOUTTHESPONSORS150Overseniordecision-makershaveexpressedtheirviewsandinsightstofacilitatethisimportantindustryresearch41IntroductionCBREIrelandandKingspan,inconjunctionwithspecialistsectorresearchagencyAnalytiqa,andsupportedbytheFreightTransportAssociationIreland(FTAI),aredelightedtopublishtheeighthinourseriesofannualsurveystoassessconfidenceandexpectationsintheIrishlogisticsandsupplychainsector.thesectorregardinginternationaltradeandthecostofenergyandfuel.Lookingahead,weanalysehowcompaniesareadaptingtothepost-pandemicenvironmentandhighlightthemostimportantgrowthopportunitiesacrossthenext12months.Thisyear’ssurveyreportsamarginalOnceagain,seniordecisionmakershaveexpressedtheirviewsandinsightstofacilitatethisimportantindustryresearch.RespondentsincludedCEO’s,ManagingDirectorsandseniormanagementofsomeofthelargestlogisticsprovidersandbuyersofsupplychainservicesacrosstheislandofIreland.Wecontinuetobegratefulforthesupportofourloyalrespondentbasethatprovidesuswithreallyvaluableconsistencyofparticipation.decreaseinconfidenceamongstsupplychainprofessionalsacrosstheislandofIreland.The2023Indexhighlightsasignificant,butnotunexpected,declineinconfidenceamongstlogisticsoperators,whilstoptimismamongstmanufacturersandretailershasincreasedfromlastyear.Importantly,bothgroupsretainoptimismintheiroutlook.Sustainablepracticesnowembeddedinbusinessstrategiesandcompaniesaredoingmorethanevertoattractnewtalent.Whilechallengeswillremaininthemonthsahead,intentionstoinvestininfrastructure,assetsandtechnologyareattheirhighestinoureight-yearresearch,illustratingthesector’sresilienceasitseekstomaximisefuturegrowthopportunities.Theresultingreportexamineskeyperformanceindicatorsforbusinessesoperatingwithinthelogisticsandsupplychainsector.Itprovidesinsightsfrombothlogisticsbuyerandserviceproviderperspectivesgivingusa360-degreeviewofsentiment.ThissurveymirrorssimilaranalysisthatisundertakenbyAnalytiqainothercountriesonthisspecialistsectoroftheeconomy.Respondentswereaskedaboutcurrentbusinessconditionsandforecastsforthefuture.Theyexpressedtheirviewsongrowthplansoftheircompaniesintermsofanticipatedchangesinturnover,profitability,logisticsandsupplychainrelatedcapitalexpendituresandexpectedchangestoemployment.Wetrustyouwillenjoyreadingthisyear’seditionoftheCBREKingspanIrelandLogisticsandSupplyChainConfidenceIndex.5GarrettMcCleanExecutiveDirector,HeadofIndustrial&LogisticsCBREIrelandOurreportonceagainfocussesonthemostimportanttrendsandissuesfacinglogisticsandsupplychainoperations,suchasinnovationandtechnology,skillsshortages,propertyrequirements,managingecommercegrowthandenvironmental,social,andcorporategovernance(ESG).Againstabackdropofcontinuinggeo-politicalandeconomicuncertainty,weidentifythemostimportantchallengesorthreatsfacingKevinMcCarthyBusinessDevelopmentManager,KingspanInsulatedPanelsIrelandCBREMarketOutlookCBREareonceagaindelightedtocollaboratewithAnalytiqaintheproductionoftheeightheditionofthishighlyregardedpublicationandagainwelcomeKingspanasjointsponsorsofthisyear’sreport.VacancyandRentsAtpresent,Dublin,Cork,andindeedregionalmarketsarefundamentallyundersuppliedofmodernlogisticsproperty.ThevacancyrateacrossthetopDublinlogisticsparksisjustover1%atpresent.Thislowlevelofavailabilityinstockhasledtocompetitivetensionamongtenantsforprimestock,andwhencombinedwithconstructioncostinflation,hasseenrentlevelsmovehigheroverthelast12months.Theyear2022sawacontinuationingrowthandmomentumintheIrishlogisticssector.TheIrisheconomycontinuedtogrowstrongly,tradevolumesincreasedduringtheyear,whilegrowthofecommerceandtheimplicationsofBrexitcontinuedtodriveincreaseddemandforwarehousing,distributioncentresandlogisticsfacilitiesinIreland.PrimerentsinDublinforthebest-in-classlogisticsbuildingsarenowatanall-timehighof€129.15persq.m.(€12.00persq.ft.),whileleaselengthsof10-yearstermcertainaretypicalforprimestock.Whileglobalgeopoliticalevents,elevatedinflationandinterestrateincreasesweredominantthemesacrossmarketsinthesecondhalfof2022,thelogisticssectorenjoyedanotherstrongyearofsalesandleasingactivity,developmentactivityadjustedtohigherconstructioncostsandremainedlargelyunhindered,whileinvestmentyieldsandpricingstartedtoadjust.Notablyinthesecondquarterof2022,anewbenchmarkcapitalvaluewasreachedforavacantpossessionlogisticstransactioninDublin,when€2,691persq.m.(€250persq.ft.)waspaidforaunitatDublinAirportLogisticsParkinDublin11.MarketActivitySupplyPipelineOccupiersinsectorssuchasthird-partylogisticsandretailing,alongwithpharmaceuticalandshippingcompanieswereamongthemostactivetenantsintheDublinmarketduring2022,competingtoleaseoracquirenew,modern,sustainablelogisticsstock.TheDublinlogisticsmarketisnowamidstanongoingperiodofmodernisation.Thesupplyofnew,modernstockhasacceleratedrapidlyoverrecentyears,andthistrendcontinuedin2022.Therequirementsoflogisticsoccupiershaveevolved,withhighereaves,greaterpowerneeds,moreyarddepthandadvancedsustainabilitycriteria,allnownecessaryfeaturesofnewdevelopments.6Occupiertake-upinthefirstquarterof2022reachedarecordamountforanopeningquarter,andthemarketsubsequentlyenjoyeditsstrongesteverquarteroftake-upinQ3.Overalltake-upvolumesreached392,000sq.m.(4.2millionsq.ft.)forthefullyear2022,a48%increaseinactivityyear-on-year,marginallybelowthemarket’sstrongesteveryearin2015.Justover220,000sq.m.(2.4millionsq.ft.)ofnewlogisticsstockreachedpracticalcompletioninDublinin2022.Thereisalsoasignificantpipelineofnewdevelopmentunderconstructionatpresent.Attheendof2022,approximately240,000sq.m.(2.5millionsq.ft.)ofnewstockwasunderconstructionandduebedeliveredinDublinoverthecourseofthefollowing12-15months.Ofthe2023pipeline,almost70%ofnewstockconsistsofbuild-to-suitdevelopmentsorisalreadypre-letor‘reserved’.Investment&YieldsPrimerentalvaluesintheDublinmarketarecurrently€118.00Intheinvestmentmarket,atotalof€500millionwasinvestedintoIrishlogisticspropertyin2022,downsignificantlycomparedto2021,butstillwellaheadofhistoricalnorms.Thesectoraccountedfor8%oftotalcommercialpropertyinvestmentspendinIrelandin2022.Pre-2020,industrial&logisticsinvestmenttypicallypersquaremetreaccountedforapproximately3.5%ofannualspendintheIrishmarket,however,thelastthreeyearshasseenthisshareincreasematerially.Notably,thesectorprovidedthehighesttotalreturnofanycommercialpropertysectorintheIrishmarketfortheseventhstraightyear,asmeasuredbyMSCI.Thetotalreturnforthelogisticssectoroverthe12-monthstotheendof2022was+8.2%,followinga+23.0%returnin2021.Guidelineinvestmentyieldsforprimestockinthesectorhaveexpandedby75basispointsoverthecourseofthelastninemonths,andnowstandat4.75%forthebest-in-classlogisticsstock.Thisisprimarilydrivenbyrisinginterestratesandtheelevatedcostofdebt,ratherthananymicro-specificfactorsassociatedwiththesector.OutlookDespiteinflationarypressures,tradevolumesinIrelandareexpectedtoremainrobustthrough2023.Thevalue(orprofile)ofgoodsexportsandimportsmaychangetoreflectasoftereconomicenvironment;however,ultimatelythevolumeofthroughputwillremainstrong.Thiswillsupportlogisticsandwarehousingrequirements.Interestingly,despiteaslowdowninsomeothermarkets,ecommercespendremainsonanupwardtrajectoryinIreland.Sustainability7Sustainabilitycredentialsareabiggerfactorthaneverinthesector,withdevelopersnowaimingforaminimumofLEEDGoldorBREEAM‘Excellent’credentialsonnewstockandindeedadeltaof10-15%onrentsforsustainablebuildingshasemerged.Rentlevelswillremainunderupwardpressureandprimerentsinthesectorareforecasttoincreaseto€134.55persq.m.(€12.50persq.ft.)byyear-end.Whilesalesandleasingactivitywilllikelybeslowerthan2022,weexpectanotherbusyyearofactivityinthenext12months.In2022,wesawthepre-lettingofIreland’sfirstnet-zerocarbonlogisticsbuilding,constructedusingglue-laminatedtimber-framesatQuantumLogisticsParkadjacentDublinAirport,whichisduetoreachpracticalcompletionin2023.Glue-laminatedtimberframedevelopmentswillbeanotherareaoffocusfordevelopersthisyearandwillcontinuetogrowinprevalence.KingspanViewpointConfidenceiscrucialforbusinesstogrow.Whetherit’sinyoursupplychain,inyourcustomer’sabilitytopay,orinthelong-termvalueandperformanceofthebuildingyouareabouttoinvestin,thelevelofconfidenceyouhaveinthosethingswillimpactthedecisionsyoumake.Thisreportprovidesvaluableinsightintothoseareas,helpingtoinformthemarketandstimulategrowth.Itwasencouragingtoseethat100%ofrespondentssaidthattheyrequiredLEEDSilverorGoldwhenmakingadecisiononacquiringanewbuilding,withamassive83.3%goingforGold.LEEDcertificationrequiresconsiderationoffactorssuchascarbon,energy,waste,transportation,materials,healthandqualityoftheindoorenvironment.Pointsaregainedforeachattribute,withGoldrequiringbetween60-79points.InthecurrentversionofLEED(v4.1),themostpointsarecreditedforreductionsinoperationalandembodiedcarbon.Whilstsomeoftheresultsinthisyear’sreportseemmixed,theoverallfeelingisoneofcautiousoptimism,withsomeclearopportunitiescomingthrough.Forexample,bothmanufacturersandretailershaveexpressedthemostpositiveoutlooksince2017.Anddespitealmost60%ofrespondentssayingthatbusinessconditionswillbemoredifficultoverthenext12months,almost70%predictanincreaseinturnover,and35%seeanincreaseinprofitability.Toidentifyhowmuchcarbonisbeingsaved,LEEDencourageslifecycleassessment(LCA)ofbuildingmaterials,products,andentirebuildings.Thisisavitalinitialstepinassessingimpact,butfromaspecificationpointofview,environmentalproductdeclarations(EPDs)arebecomingincreasinglymoreimportantwhencomparingdifferentproducts.Asbuildingsbecomemoreenergyefficient,theimpactofembodiedcarbonbecomesmoresignificant,yetjust8.3%oflogisticcompanieshavecarriedoutanenergyorcarbonaudit.Throughusingcarboncalculatortoolsorlifecycleassessmentsoftware,businessescanbenchmarkandreducetheenvironmentalimpactsoftheirbuildingsandinfrastructure.Meanwhile,althoughsupplychainissuesfollowingBrexitremain,theyarelessproblematicalthanlastyear,asbusinessesadjustandfindnewsolutions.Despitethesemixedmessages,over65%anticipatemakingasignificantcapitalexpenditureoverthecomingyear,andthisiswheredecisionswillbemadethatcanaffect,notjustthebottomline,butalsothefutureoftheplanet.Havinganenergyefficientandlowembodiedcarbonbuildingiskey.However,withalmost20%ofcompaniesplanningoninvestinginGreenEnergyoron-sitegenerationinitiatives,findingrenewableenergyoptionsisnowcritical.Manyexistingandnewbuildingroofsaresuitableforinstallingsolarpower,makinggooduseofwhatisotherwiseunusedandunderutilisedspace.ThisnotonlyreducestheoperationalcarbonofthebuildingbutwillalsoassistwithgainingLEEDorBREEAMcertification.EnergyandSustainability8InJuly2022theGovernmentannouncedsectoralemissionsceilings,settingmaximumlimitsongreenhousegasemissionsthatarepermissibleupto2030.Forcommercialbuildingsthisentailsa45%reductionover2018levels.Additionalresourcesarealsobeingmadeavailableforsolar–doublingtheprevioustargetto5,500MW.Almost30%ofrespondentscitedregulationsasthedriverforinvestinginsustainableinitiatives.Investinginbuildingsthatarewellinsulated,airtight,includenaturaldaylighting,smartcontrolsandincorporaterenewableenergygenerationwilldeliverrichrewards.Moresustainablebuildingshavebeenfoundtocommandhigherrentalandresalerates,andeventohelpwithstaffandretention.Theyhelptode-riskbusinessesbeinghitbyfuturecarbontaxes,orassetsbecomingstrandedbecausetheynolongermeettheevermorestringentrequirementsforrentedproperty.However,therearemuchwideropportunitiesforthecommercialsectortoengagewithsomeoftheadvancedbuildingtechnologiesthatarenowavailable,creatinghighlyenergyefficientproperties,andhelpingtoreduceoperationalcosts,cutcarbonandfutureproofvaluableassets.WithIrelandmovingtowardsitscommitmentofachievinga51%reductioningreenhousegasemissionsby2030,andnetzeroemissionsby2050,itmakessensetoensurethatanybuildingsthatarecommissionedorrefurbishednow,arealsofitforthefuture.QuadCoreLEChasbeendevelopedspecificallytohelpreducethecarbonfootprintofthebuildingsitisusedon.UsingcomparativeLifecycleAssessmentData(LCA)datatotheEN15804-A2standard,thisbreakthroughininsulatedpaneltechnologydemonstratesa21%reduction*inembodiedcarboninmodulesA1-A3(productstage)forQuadCoreAWPina100mmthickness.ThefirstproductsintheQuadCoreLECrangearenowavailableintheUKandIrishmarkets.FindingSolutionsAsmanufacturersandsuppliersofbuildingenvelopesystemsandsolutions,wearekeenlyawareoftheissuesthatthemarketfaces.Buildingshavetoperformbetter,workharder,supportchangeandgrowth,andmeetnotjusttheregulatoryrequirementsbutalsoaspirationalstandardssuchasLEED.Tighterlegislationiscomingoverthenextfewyears,butthesolutionsarealreadyavailabletomaintainconfidencethattherequirementscanbemet.*QuadCoreAWPLECLCAshowsa21%reductioninLCAmodulesA1–A3(productstage)whencomparedtoexistingQuadcoreAWPLCAtotheEN15804-A2standardfora100mmthickness.TheEPDsforQuadCoreAWPLEC,QuadCoreKS1000RWLECandQuadCoreColdstoreLECareverifiedbyathirdpartyandavailablefordownloadonEPDHub’swebsite.The21%reductionforQuadCoreAWPLECisachievedthroughrawmaterialchangestothesteel.WhencomparingmodulesA-C(productstage,constructionprocessstage,usestage,endoflifestage)theoverallreductionis15%.Our10-yearsustainabilityprogramme,PlanetPassionate,isnowinitsthirdyear.Focusedondeliveringpositivechangestoourownenvironmentalimpacts,suchasreducingembodiedcarbonandimprovingthecircularityaroundourproducts,weaimtoalsomeettheneedsofourcustomersintheseareas.Akeyachievementonthisjourneyistherecentlaunchofalowerembodiedcarbonrange.96anticipatemakingasignificantcapitalexpenditureoverthecomingyear.2MeasuringConfidenceInundertakingthissurvey,wehaveadoptedthesamemethodologyusedacrosssimilarsurveysconductedbyAnalytiqaresearchforotherjurisdictions.Inthis,theeightheditionoftheCBREKingspanIrelandIrishLogisticsandSupplyChainConfidenceIndex,wehaveforthemostpartfollowedthesamequestioningtoaidcomparisonandanalysis,whilstupdatingourinsightonkeyelementstoreflectmorerecentmarketdevelopments.OurindexconsiderstheproportionofTheinsightsrecordedtakeadualperspectiverespondentsquotingimprovement,nochangeordeteriorationinthesector.Inthecalculationoftheindex,areadingofover50.0indicatesanimprovement,orexpectationoffuturegrowth,whilebelow50.0suggestsadecline.Thefurtherawayfrom50.0theindexis,thestrongerthechangeovertheperiod.acrossthesector,withresponsesfromthoseoperatingaslogisticsprovidersandbuyersoftheseservices.Thisreportwassupportedbyseniordecisionmakers,someofIreland’smostsuccessfulPLCs,prominentMNCsandlargelogisticsprovidersincluding:1021112Respondents49%Conductedacrossthreemonths,fromDecember2022toFebruary2023,therewereatotalof50respondentstoour2023research,ofwhich25werefromlogisticsfirmsand25weremanufacturersandretailers.ofrespondentswereclassifiedaseitherCEOsorManagingDirectors,whileafurther33%ofrespondentswereeitherLogisticsorSupplyChainDirectorsattheirfirmsAcrossourincrediblyseniorresearchbase,49%ofrespondentswereclassifiedaseitherCEOsorManagingDirectors,whileafurther33%ofrespondentswereeitherLogisticsorSupplyChainDirectorsattheirfirms.Theremaining18%ofrespondentsincludedprofessionalsinseniorfinancial,procurement,operationalandcommercialroles.LogisticsFirmsThemajorityofthelogisticsfirmsthatparticipatedinthesurveywerecategorisedas3PLcompaniesandrepresented52%oflogisticsrespondents.24%and12%belongedtoforwardingcompaniesandhauliersrespectively,withtheremaining12%beingparcelandexpressoperators.14Manufacturers&RetailersThemanufacturersandretailersthatrespondedtothesurveywereallocatedacrosskeyindustrysectors.Theseincludedindustrial(28%),food,drinksandconsumergoods(24%),pharma/healthcare(24%),retail(20%)andtechnology(4%).153TheCBREKingspanIrelandLogisticsConfidenceIndexfor2023hasbeensetat52.13HowConfidentistheIrishLogisticsSector?TheCBREKingspanIrelandLogisticsandSupplyChainConfidenceIndexfor2023hasbeensetat52.1.Thisrepresentsamarginaldeclinefrom2022,continuingafive-yeartrendoffluctuatinglevelsofoptimismbelowthoserecordedinthe2016-2018period.ItreinforcesamorepositiveoutlookforthesectorafterCovid-19-influencedlevelsofpessimisminour2021report,butacknowledgestheincreasingchallengesConfidenceamongstlogisticsoperatorshas,however,droppedsignificantly,from60.3in2022,to51.2in2023.Thisrepresentsitslowestlevelinoureight-yearseriesbutisnotentirelyunexpected.ItmirrorsadropinoptimismbylogisticscompaniesintheUK,recordedinQ4,2022,andreflectsthemorechallengingeconomicoutlookfor2023.witnessedbymanyas2022progressed.AsinflationinIrelandhita38-yearhighin2022,mostlydrivenbyrisingenergycostsandfoodOurresearchcontinuestorecordadivergenceofconfidencebetweenthegroupsofprices,logisticsoperatorsweremanaginga2downwardsadjustmentofpricingininternationalfreightmarkets,fromtheirhighsof2021andthefirsthalfof2022,ascapacityconstraintsandoperationalimbalancesinglobalairandoceanmarketseased.manufacturersandretailers,andlogisticsoperators.However,foronlythesecondtimeineightyears,with2017beingtheotheroccasion,manufacturersandretailersaremoreoptimisticintheiroutlookthanlogisticsoperators.Whilsttheoutlookispositive,confidencelevelsonceagainremainfragile.2023willcontinuetobecharacterisedbyhighuncertainty.Geo-politicalchallengespersistinEuropeandenergypricesremainhigh.WhilstIrelandisexpectedtooutperformmanyofitsEuropeanneighboursin2023,economicgrowthissettomoderateandtheexportsofgoodsandservicesmaycomeunderpressureinthefaceoftheseweakerinternationalmarkets.Ireland’sGDPforthefullyear2022demonstratedstronggrowth,particularlyinthefirsthalfoftheyear,anddrivenmainlybyexpansioninthemanufacturingsector.1Thiswasillustratedinourresearch.At53.0,manufacturersandretailershaveanoptimisticoutlookfortheyearaheadforthefirsttimesinceour2018report.Morepositively,labourmarketsremainrobustandinflationissettofallaswemovethrough2023.Whilethedomesticeconomyispredictedtoslowconsiderably,forecastsfromtheCentralBankpointtopositivegrowthfor2023asa17Confidencelevelshavedecreasedin2023,drivenbydecliningconfidenceamongstlogisticsoperatorswhole.3(1)https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/fp/fp-pgdp/preliminarygdpestimatequarter42022/(2)https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-yin/ireland2022theyearinnumberspart2businessandeconomy/(3)https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publications/quarterly-bulletins/qb-archive/2023/quarterly-bulletin-q1-2023.pdf4BusinessConfidenceComparedto12MonthsPreviousMoremanufacturersandretailersarenowoptimisticaboutcurrentbusinessconditionsthanlogisticsprovidersTheseopinionshavebeenshapedbyanumbernegativechallengesandpositiveopportunities,headwindsandtailwinds,thathavedefinedthelast12months.Ireland’seconomywasgrowingstronglyattheendof2021andthroughthefirsthalfof2022,withunemploymentrateslow.WhilstCovid-19andBrexit-relateddisruptionhadnotgoneaway,businessesweremoreadeptatmanagingsuchchallenges.However,whilstdisruptiontoglobaltradeeasedinthelastquarterof2022,geo-politicaluncertaintyinEuroperemained,sustaininghigherenergycosts,whichhelpeddriveinflationarypressures.Overone-halfofourrespondentsbelievecurrentconditionsaremorechallenging(14%‘muchmoredifficult’and41%‘somewhatmoredifficult’)thantheywere12monthsago.Thisisupslightlyfromthe52%ofrespondentsthatsharedthisviewlastyear.18%ofrespondentsaremoreconfidentaboutbusinessconditionsinthelogisticsandsupplychainsectorthantheywere12monthsago,upfrom16%lastyear.Whenaskedhowconfidenttheywerecomparedto12monthspreviously,all18%oftheserespondentssaythatconditionsare‘somewhatmorefavourable’,withnoRepresentingashiftfrompreviousyears’research,moremanufacturersandretailersarenowoptimisticaboutcurrentbusinessconditionsthanlogisticsproviders,with25%ofmanufacturersandretailersexpressingpositivesentiment,asopposedtojust12%oflogisticsoperators.respondentsbelievingthatconditionsare‘muchmorefavourable’thanlastyear.44%oflogisticsoperatorssaythatconditionsare‘somewhatmoredifficult’comparedtothesameperiodlastyear(upfrom36%lastyear),thoughnonestatetheyare‘muchmoredifficult,downfrom8%lastyear.Thismeansthatoverone-quarterofourrespondents(27%)seetradingconditionsassimilartothoseof12monthsago,downfrom32%lastyear.184The44%oflogisticsoperatorsthatseecurrentComparedto12monthspreviouslyconditionsasmoredifficult,comparesto67%18%ofmanufacturersandretailers.Ahighershareofmanufacturersandretailersarebothmorepositiveandnegativeaboutcurrentconditionsthantheirlogisticsprovidercounterparts,asfarfewer(just8%)seecurrentconditionsasthesameaslastyear.ofrespondentssaythatconditionsare‘somewhatmorefavourable’19LogisticsManufacturers&Retailers5BusinessConfidenceForecastforNext12Months2023willcontinuetobecharacterisedbyhighuncertainty,as32%ofrespondentsexpectconditionstobemorefavourableUncertaintyremainsintheoutlookforIrelandin2023.TheCentralBankofIreland’smostrecentQuarterlyBulletinpriortothepublicationofour2023report,publishedattheendofOverthenext12months57%2022,highlightsthattheeconomiceffectsof4thewarinUkraine,risingenergypricesanduncertaintyaboutenergysuppliesisleadingtolowerconsumptionandinvestmentthanwouldotherwisebethecase.ofrespondentsstillexpectconditionstobemoredifficult.Whilewagegrowthisforecasttopickupinnominalterms,itisforecasttobeoutpacedbyconsumerpriceinflation,meaningthathouseholddisposableincomeisprojectedtodecline.ExportsproducedinIrelandinmultinationalenterprise-dominatedsectorsincreasedsharplyin2022thoughtheBankwarnsthatalessfavourablegrowthpathintheUK,forexample,wouldhaveslightlynegativeimplicationsforthegrowthforecasts.One-in-ninerespondents(11%)expectbusinessconditionstobethesameintheyearahead,downfrom20%lastyear,whilearoundone-third(32%)expectconditionstobe‘somewhatmorefavourable’overthenext12months,upfrom26%in2022.Noneofourrespondentsareexpectingbusinessconditionstobe‘muchmorefavourable’overthenext12months.Morepositively,whileaperiodofbelowtrendeconomicgrowth,extendinginto2024remainsapossibility,inflationarypressuresareforecasttoeasethrough2023,allowingdomesticgrowthtopickupagaininthesecondhalfofnextyear.Almosttwo-thirdsoflogisticsoperators(64%)expectconditionstobemoredifficultin2023(upfrom48%lastyear).Thisfigureis48%formanufacturersandretailers(downfrom56%).20%oflogisticsoperatorsexpectconditionstoremainthesamein2023,whileonly4%ofmanufacturersandretailerssharethissentiment.20Thesechallengeswerereflectedinthesentimentexpressedbyourresearchrespondents.Whenaskedabouttheirexpectationsforbusinessconditionsoverthenext12months,57%ofrespondentsex