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17May2023
04
10
14
Lookingback:strong
Aftertheinflation
Lookingahead:
growth
shock
dramaticchange
belowthesurface
18
Insurance'sroleas
anchorinturbulent
times
AllianzResearch
Anchorin
turbulenttimes
AllianzGlobalInsuranceReport2023
AllianzResearch
2
Executive
Summary
ArneHolzhausen
HeadofInsurance,WealthandTrends
arne.holzhausen@allianz
.com
MichaelaGrimm
SeniorEconomist
michaela.grimm@
KathrinStoffel
ExpertWealthMarkets
kathrin.stoffel@
PatriciaPelayo-Romero
ExpertInsurance
patricia.pelayo-romero@
withtheparticipationof
LucasChaka
ResearchAssistant
lucas.chaka@
•TotalglobalinsurancepremiumincomeamountedtoalmostEUR5.6trnin2022.
Liferemainsthelargestsegment(EUR2.6trn),aheadofp&c(EUR1.8trn)andhealth(EUR1.1trn).Lastyear,thepremiumpoolgrewbyEUR259bnor+4.9%–againstthebackdropofaglobalinflationrateof8.6%.
•However,thethreesegmentsfaredverydifferently:Whilepropertyand
casualty(p&c)clockedrobustgrowthof+8.7%,healthexpandedbyamore
modest+4.9%,andlifeinsurancemarketgrowthwasadismal+2.4%:squeezedrealhouseholdincomestookatollonprivatesavings.
•Theriseinp&cpremiumswasdrivenbyallregionsaroundtheglobe.However,withEUR77.5bn(+9.9%),morethanhalfoftheglobalincreasein2022camefromNorthAmericaalone;withpremiumincomeofEUR860bn,theregionremains
byfarthelargestmarketworldwide.Asia,too,sawhealthygrowthof+8.4%lastyear(+EUR31bn).WithtotalpremiumincomeofnearlyEUR403bn,theregion
overtookEuropeforthefirsttime(+4.0%orEUR15bntoEUR397bn).
•Lifeinsurancemarketssufferedlastyear,particularlyinWesternEurope:
Premiumincomedeclinedbyalmost-3%in2022(-EUR21bntoEUR740bn).
GrowthwasdisappointinginAsia,too,recordingamodestincreaseof+3.6%
(+EUR33bntoEUR952bn).Asinp&c,NorthAmericawasthemaingrowthdriverin2022,addingEUR61bninnewpremiums(+7.8%toEUR840bn).America’s
dominanceisevenmorepronouncedinhealth,wheretheUSmarketaccountsforaroundtwo-thirdsofallpremiumincomeworldwide.
•NorthAmerica–i.e.,theUS,whichaccountsfor94%oftheregion’spremium
pool–dominatedtheglobalinsurancemarketnotonlyin2022,butover
thelastdecade:Morethanhalfoftheincreaseinglobalpremiumincomein
p&candhealthwasgeneratedthere.Inlife,theshareisstillslightlybelow
one-third,whileAsiacommandsthebiggestsliceofthecake.Asaresult,the
region’sglobalmarketsharerosefromanalreadyimpressive39.6%in2012toawhopping43.9%in2022.ThisisinsharpcontrasttoWesternEurope,whichlostmorethan6ppstoreach23.8%.Theotherclear“loser”isJapan(-3.7ppsto5.5%),whileChinawasabletoalmostdoubleitsglobalshareto11.4%;therestofAsiastoodat10.1%.
•Ineconomicterms,navigatinganinflationaryenvironmentwillbethebiggestchallengeinthecomingyears.Fivestructuraldriverswilldetermineinflation(the"FiveDs"):demographics,deglobalization,decarbonization,digitalization
17May2023
3
anddebt.Overall,thefiveDsmightsignificantlyliftannualinflationbyupto
1pp.
•Despitehigherinflation–orperhapspreciselybecauseofit–premiumsaresettoincreaseby+5.2%p.a.overthenextdecade,addingEUR4,190bntotheglobalpremiumpool.In2033,premiumincomewillreachEUR4.3trninlife,
EUR3.1trninp&candEUR2.3trninhealth.
•WithEUR1,726bn,mostoftheincreasewillbeinthelifesegment.However,
annualgrowth(+4.7%)overthenextdecadeislikelytolagwellbehindgeneraleconomicgrowth(+5.2%).Insurancepenetrationwillthusfallby3ppsto2.8%.Asiawillremainthegrowthengineforthegloballifebusiness,withannual
growth(ex.Japan)expectedtoriseto+7.5%.Theregionshouldaccountforhalfofabsolutepremiumgrowth(EUR866bn),morethanNorthAmerica(EUR377bn)andEurope(EUR276bn)combined.
•Inthep&csegment,additionalpremiumswillamounttoEUR1,282bnby2033.
Thisrepresentsanannualgrowthrateof+5.0%,roughlyinlinewiththeprevious
decade(+5.1%)andgeneraleconomicgrowth(+5.2%);insurancepenetration
willthereforedecreaseonlyslightlyby1pp(to2.0%).Asinthelifesegment,
Asia(ex.Japan)isthecleargrowthchampionamongthemajorregions,withan
annualrateof+8.1%.Inabsoluteterms,however,theimportanceoftheregion
islowerthaninthelifesegment:"only"around35%oftheexpectedpremium
growth(EUR448bn)isattributabletoAsia,againstEUR357bninNorthAmerica
andEUR168bninEurope.
•Inviewofthemajortechnologicalupheavalsandnewandrisingrisks,thisforecast–whichsuggestscontinuity–maycomeasasurprise.However,thisappliesonlytothesurfaceofpremiumgrowth.Theunderlyingchangesaredramatic.
•Technologywillchangehowinsurersoperate.Ecosystems,forinstance,will
playadecisiveroleincustomeraccess,offeringnotonlyindividualproductsbutcomprehensive"solutions"forcustomerneeds,beitformobility,living,travel,
wealthorhealth.Artificialintelligenceopensunimaginedpossibilitiesindataanalyticsandcouldrevolutionizetheentirevaluechainfromunderwritingtoclaimshandling.
•Preservingitssocialrelevance–andwithititsbillion-dollarpremiumpool–theindustryisfacingafundamentalchangeinitsbusinessmodel:Thevaluepropositionofinsurerswillevolve,frompurefinancialcompensationtorisk
managementandholisticserviceofferingstopreventandmitigaterisks.Thisfollowsaninescapablelogic:Toclosethehugeprotectiongaps–inNatCat,cyber,healthorpension–mobilizingmorepremiumsmightnotbeenough;avoidingrisksinthefirstplacewillbecomemoreandmoreimportant.
•However,thistransformationwillplayoutoveralongtime.Inthemeantime,
insurancecanprovetheirworthinturbulenttimesofhighinflationandlow
growth.Theinsuranceindustrycannotundoinflation,butitcansmoothouttheimpact,actingasakindofbuffer.Itsresilienceintermsofliquidityandcredit
makesitabellwetherfortheinvestmentsneededtofinancethegreentransition.Insuranceisanessentialshockabsorberasitflattensthecurveoftheeconomiccycle.
4
Lookingback:
stronggrowth
AllianzResearch
.T
Theglobalinsuranceindustryprovedtoberesilientin
2022:InsurersworldwidecollectedmorethanEUR5.6trninlife,p&candhealthinsurancepremiums,morethaneverbefore.Theincreaseoverthepreviousyearamountstoanestimated+4.9%,inlinewiththeaveragegrowthrateof
thepastdecade(CAGR12012-2022:+5.0%).
However,therobustdevelopmentmustbeseenagainst
thebackdropofrapidlyrisinginflation:Inthelastyear
alone,theglobalinflationrateislikelytohavedoubled
from4.3%to8.6%.Inrealterms,therefore,thepicture
isbecomingmuchgloomier.Moreover,thegrowth
momentumhassloweddownconsiderablycompared
tothepreviousyear(+7.1%in2021)duetotheweak
developmentinthelifesector.Theupshot:Forasecond
yearinarow,premiumgrowthtrailedbehindoverall
economicgrowthandinsurancepenetration(premiumsasapercentageofGDP)continuedtofall,from7.1%in2020
to6.9%in2021and6.6%in2022.However,thedecline
ofinsurancepenetrationisnotjusttheconsequenceof
sky-highinflation.Itmustbeseenasalonger-termtrend
–albeitwithhugedifferencesbetweenthesegments.
Whilehealthinsuranceincreasedinrelevanceoverthe
lastdecade(albeitfromalowlevel)andp&cmanaged
tonarrowlydefenditsturf(notsurprisinglyasmanyp&c
insuranceproductsaremandatory),lifeinsurancedroppeddramatically:firstultra-lowinterestratesandnow
squeezedrealincomeshavetakenatollonprivatesavings(seeFigure1).
1CompoundAnnualGrowthRate.
17May2023
5
Figure1:Losingrelevance
Globalgrosswrittenpremiums*andnominalGDPgrowth*(y/y,in%)andglobalgrosswrittenpremiums*as%ofGDPbysegments
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
20122013201420152016201720182019202020212022
GWP(life,p&candhealth)
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
0.8
1.3
2.2
2.1
3.9
3.1
2012lifep&chealth2022
*TheconversionintoEURisbasedon2022exchangerates.
Sources:Nationalfinancialsupervisoryauthorities,insuranceassociationsandstatisticaloffices,Axco,RefinitivDatastream,AllianzResearch.
Figure2depictsthegrowthdynamicin2022byregionandlineofbusiness.Theglobalmarketgrowthin2022was
primarilyfedbythesharpriseinp&cpremiumincome:Withanincreaseof+8.7%,premiumsforp&cinsuranceproductswrittenworldwideoutpacedhealthandlife
insurancemarketgrowth(+4.9%and+2.4%,respectively)byawidemargin.Andincontrasttoboththesesectors–
wheregrowthsignificantlysloweddownfrom+9.3%and+6.5%,respectively,in2021–thepaceofp&cpremiumgrowthevenacceleratedcomparedtothepreviousyear(+6.4%in2021).
Figure2:Lifeisadrag
Grosswrittenpremiumgrowth*,2022byregionin%
World
NorthAmerica
WesternEurope
AsiaexJPN&CHN
RestoftheWorld
CHN
JPN
-15.0
-10.0-5.00.05.010.015.0
total
health
life
p&c
20.0
*TheconversionintoEURisbasedon2022exchangerates.Japan:Healthispartoflife(thirdsectorproducts).
Sources:Nationalfinancialsupervisoryauthorities,insuranceassociationsandstatisticaloffices,Axco,RefinitivDatastream,AllianzResearch.
AllianzResearch
6
2.4
7.02.8
-12.4
-20.6
-1.7
5.3
Thesurgeinp&cbusinesslastyearwasdrivenbyall
regionsaroundtheglobe.AtthetopofthelistisNorth
Americaor,moreprecisely,theUSalone:Withalmost
EUR77.5bn,morethanhalfoftheworldwideincreaseinp&cpremiumscamefromthere(seeFigure3).In2022,
theUSp&cmarketstoodatanestimatedEUR802bn,
correspondingtoayear-over-yeargrowthofnearly+10%(CAGR2012-2022:+5.4%)andaglobalmarketshareofnearly45%.TheUSmightnolongerbetheundisputed
globalhegemonbutinthep&cbusinessitstillrulestheworld.
Accordingtoourprojections,insurersinWesternEuropewrote+4.0%morep&cbusinessintheregionthaninthepreviousyear,thehighestannualincreasesince2017.Inabsoluteterms,theincreaseamountedtoEUR15.3bn–onlyafractionofthegrowthseenintheUS.Insyncwiththeglobaldevelopment,thepaceofpremiumgrowth
didnotonlyaccelerate–albeitslightly–comparedto
thepreviousyear(+3.9%in2021)butwasalsowellabovetheaverageannualgrowthduringthepastdecade
(CAGR2012-2022:+2.5%).Whilepremiumgrowthinthecontinent’slargestmarket,Germany(+4.0%),wasinline
withtheregionalaverage,thedevelopmentinsmaller
marketssuchasAustria(+6.7%),Greece(+6.5%)and
Portugal(+6.4%),forexample,wasclearlyabove.WesternEuropeaccountedforaround22%ofglobalpremium
volumeattheendof2022(EUR397bn).
Asia'sp&cinsurancemarketgrowthincreasedsignificantlyfromonly+1.6%in2021to+8.4%lastyear,surpassingthelong-termaverage(CAGR2012-2022:+6.7%).Themain
driverofthereturnto“normal”AsiangrowthrateswastherecoveryoftheChinesemarket,whichaddedEUR12.2bninpremiums,almostasmuchasWesternEurope.AnotherEUR16.5bninadditionalpremiumswaswrittenintherestofAsia(withoutJapan),underliningtheimportanceoftheregionfortheglobalinsuranceindustry(seeFigure3).
In2022,Asianp&cpremiumincomeamountedtothe
equivalentofnearlyEUR403bn,correspondingtoaglobalmarketshareofjustunder22%.Thus,forthefirsttime,theentireregionwrotemorepremiumsinp&cthanWesternEurope.However,theAsianinsurancemarketisanythingbutahomogeneousmass.Thegrowthratesareinverselyproportionatetothematurityoftheindividualmarkets:
Figure3:UShegemony
Absolutepremiumgrowth*,2022byregioninEURbn
JPNCHNRestoftheWorldWesternEuropeNorthAmericaAsiaexJPN&CHN
16.5
77.5
61.0
15.3
35.3
20.9
12.2
2.5
12.8
22.3
lifep&chealth
*TheconversionintoEURisbasedon2022exchangerates.Japan:Healthispartoflife(thirdsectorproducts).
Sources:Nationalfinancialsupervisoryauthorities,insuranceassociationsandstatisticaloffices,Axco,RefinitivDatastream,AllianzResearch.
17May2023
7
themorematureamarketintermsoftheinsurance
penetrationrateanddensity2,thelowerthegrowthratestendtobe.InthewealthiermarketssuchasHongKong
(1.4%),Japan(+3.7%)andSingapore(+3.9%),growthin
2022wasinthelowsingledigits.Themostdynamicgroupofcountries,ontheotherhand,achieveddouble-digit
premiumgrowthacrosstheboard:Forexample,accordingtoourprojections,theincreasesrangedfromjustunder
+12%inMalaysiaandmorethan+16%inIndonesiaand
SriLankato+24%inthePhilippines.Intermsofvolume,
theAsianinsurancemarketisstilldominatedbythetwo
heavyweightsChinaandJapan,which,takentogether,
accountforalmosttwo-thirdsofregionalp&cpremium
income.ChinaalreadyovertookJapanin2010.Last
year,whenitsp&cpremiumincomegrewby+7%,China’smarketwasalmostthreetimesasbigasJapan’s.Takingthesetwocountriesoutoftheequation,marketgrowthfortheregionwas+12.8%lastyear,wellabovethelong-termaverageof+6.9%overthepastdecade.
Allotherinsurancemarkets(restoftheworld,global
marketshareof8.3%)recordedgrowthofaround+16%
inthep&csegment(CAGR2012-2022:+7.5%),drivenby
strong(largelyinflation-related)increasesinEastern
Europe(around+35%)andLatinAmerica(morethan
+23%).Thesetworegionsaccountforjustunder24%andagood36%,respectively,ofthisgroupofcountries’marketvolume.
Inthehealthsegment3,thedominanceoftheUSis
evenmorepronounced.Notonlywasthebulkofnew
premiumsin2022writtenintheUSbutoverall,too,theUSmarketaccountedforaroundtwo-thirdsofallpremium
incomeworldwide.Inmanyothermarkets,privatehealthinsuranceisstillanichesegment,albeitaverydynamicone:Globalpremiumgrowthreacheddouble-digitsoverthelastdecade(CAGR+10.1%).Inthelastthreeyears,
Covid-19fueleddemandforadditionalhealthprotection,notleastintheUS,wherepremiumincomeincreasedbymorethan+40%(orEUR211bn)inthattimespan.
Lifeinsurancemarketssufferedlastyear,particularly
inWesternEurope.Ontheoldcontinent,businesswith
lifeinsuranceproductsshrankbyalmost-3%year-on-
yearin2022(EUR20.6bn).Therefore,itsshareinglobalpremiumincomedecreasedby1.3ppsto28%.Basedonourprojections,theregion’slifepremiumincomecametoalmostEUR740bnattheendoflastyear,witharound
halfofthatbeingunderwritteninthetwolargestmarkets,theUKandFrance,alone.Withintheregion,however,thedevelopmentwasanythingbuthomogeneous.Markets
withhighsharesofsingle-premiumorunit-linkedproductsexperiencedheftydeclinesinpremiums.Whilethelife
insurancemarketintheUK,forinstance,isestimatedto
havegrownbyalmost+5%,premiumincomeinFrance
contractedbycloseto-3%.Germanyalsoreporteda
declineof-7%afteraminusof0.4%inthepreviousyear.
Inthesouthernpartofthecontinent,Italy(-11%)and
Portugal(-22%)recordedsharpdeclines,whileSpainandGreeceshowedincreasesof+4.2%and+2.4%,respectively.Overall,premiumgrowthin2022waswellbelowthe–
alreadyrelativelyweak–regionallong-termaverage(CAGR2012-2022:+1.8%).
BesidesWesternEurope,lifeinsurancemarket
developmentsdisappointedinlargepartsofAsia.At
+3.6%,regionalpremiumgrowthwaswaybelowthe
long-termaverage(CAGR2012-2022:+4.5%),butatleastsomewhatbetterthantheglobalaverage(+1.9%).As
inWesternEurope,nouniformpatternwasdiscernible
atthecountrylevel:Ontheonehand,bothsaturated
marketssuchasHongKong(-5.5%)andTaiwan(-26%)andcountrieswithastrongneedtocatchup,suchasIndonesia(-7.8%),thePhilippines(-0.5%)andThailand(-2.3%),saw
negativegrowth.Ontheotherhand,bothChinaand
Japan,accountingforaround60%ofregionalpremium
income,showedpositivegrowth.However,ataround
+10%,lifepremiumsinJapangrewmorethantwiceas
fastasthoseintheMiddleKingdom.Themaindriverwereso-called“thirdsector”products,whicharehealthpoliciessoldbylifeinsurersthatbenefitedfromelevateddemandforhealthprotectionintheaftermathofCovid-19.Attheendoflastyear,theregion’slifeinsurancemarketstoodatanestimatedEUR937bn,correspondingtoaglobal
marketshareof36%.Excludingthetwolargestmarkets,theregionpostedaslightdeclineof-0.4%lastyear(CAGR2012-2022:+5.6%).
2GrosswrittenpremiumsaspercentageofGDPandpercapita,respec-
tively.
3Ingeneral,datavisibilityofhealthinsurancepremiumsisstillrather
low.Often,healthpremiumsareincludedinothersegmentsashealth
coverageisseenaspartofotherproductsandnotseparatelyreported;in
Japan,forinstance,healthistreatedas“thirdsectorproducts”withinlife.
AllianzResearch
8
Justlikeinthep&cbusiness,thelion'sshareofgloballife
premiumincomewasstillwrittenintheUSlastyear:The
country’sglobalmarketshareaccountedforjustunder
30%–1.7ppsmorethanin2021.Innetterms,itgeneratedalloftheincreaseinlastyear’sglobalpremium.Attheendof2022,theUSlifeinsurancemarketstoodatanestimatedEUR777bn,correspondingtoayear-over-yeargrowthof
around+8%(CAGR2012-2022:+2.9%).
Allotherinsurancemarkets(restoftheworld,global
marketshareof3.4%)sufferedadeclineofaround-12%inthelifesegment(CAGR2012-2022:+1.6%)caused
bythesharpslumpofpremiumincomeinSouthAfrica
(-54%)whichusedtoberesponsibleforalmostone-thirdofpremiumincomeinthosecountries.Ontheotherhand,LatinAmericarecordedastrongincrease(nearly+12%),accountingfor43%ofthisgroupofcountries’market
volume.
Overall,insurerswroteEUR259bnmoreinpremiums
in2022thaninthepreviousyear(life:+EUR61bn;p&c:
+EUR145bn,health:+EUR53bn).Asdiscussed,North
Americaexplainsmostoftheincrease.ButtheUShas
playedanoutsizedroleinglobalinsurancemarkets
overthelastdecade,too.Inthisperiod,theUSinsurancemarketraiseditsglobalmarketsharefromanalready
impressive39.6%toawhopping43.9%.Thisisinsharp
contrasttoWesternEurope,whichlostmorethan6pps
toreach23.8%.Theotherclear“loser”isJapan,while
Chinawasabletoalmostdoubleitsglobalshareto11.4%.However,theUSdominanceisunlikelytoendsoon(see
Figure4).
Figure4:Mindthegap(betweentheUSandtherest)Totalgrosswrittenpremiums*,2012and2022byregionin%
5.3
NorthAmerica
2022
5.5
5.2
9.2
11.4
WesternEurope
6.0
39.8
43.9
AsiaexJPN&CHN
2012
9.8
10.1
CHN
30.1
JPN
23.8
RestoftheWorld
*TheconversionintoEURisbasedon2022exchangerates.
Sources:Nationalfinancialsupervisoryauthorities,insuranceassociationsandstatisticaloffices,Axco,RefinitivDatastream,AllianzResearch.
Lookingatthethreesegments,thedominanceofthe
USisclearinp&candparticularlyinhealth:Inboth
segments,theUSmarketaccountedforroughlyhalfandthree-quarters,respectively,oftheincreaseinglobal
premiumincomeoverthelastdecade.Inlife,however,theshareislessthanone-third.Inthissegment,Asia
commandsbyfarthebiggestsliceofthecake.WesternEurope,ontheotherhand,islosingsignificanceinallthreesegments;itnotonlytrailsbehindtheUSbutalsoAsia(seeFigure5).
Figure5:Theoldcontinenttrailsbehind
Shareofabsolutepremiumgrowth*byregion,2012-2022in%
1.9
31.7
life:
49.1
+EUR747bn
17.3
NorthAmerica
WesternEurope
Asia
Restofthe
World
10.7
27.5p&c:49.7
+EUR766bn
12.1
4.7
17.0
health:
6.9
+EUR738bn
71.5
*TheconversionintoEURisbasedon2022exchangerates.
Sources:Nationalfinancialsupervisoryauthorities,insuranceassociationsandstatisticaloffices,Axco,RefinitivDatastream,AllianzResearch.
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
17May2023
Decompositionofgrowth
Overthepasttwodecades,premiumincomefornon-lifeinsuranceproductsfromprivatecustomerbusinessintheEurozoneis
estimatedtohavegrownbynearly+70%tojustunderEUR172bn.Inabsoluteterms,thefourlargestmarketsintheregionaccountedforfour-fifthsofthisincrease:France(+EUR23.4bn),Germany(+EUR18.2bn),Spain(+EUR10.1bn)andItaly(+EUR4.6bn).TheFrenchp&cinsurancemarketalsotopsthelistintermsofrelativegrowth,whichmorethandoubledduringthisperiod.Premiumgrowth
inSpainwasalsoabove-averageatalmost+95%,whileGermany(justunder+55%)andItaly(nearly+26%)werewellbelowtheregionalaverage.
However,thesevalues"only"reflectthenominaldevelopment.Againstthebackgroundofgallopinginflation,whatproportionofmarketgrowthhasbeendowntoinflationoverthepast21years?Forouranalysis,weusetheinflationrateforexpensesforinsurancepolicies4recordedbyEurostataspartoftheharmonizedconsumerpriceindex.
Onaverageoverthelongterm,insuranceinflationintheEurozonelaggedslightlybehindthegeneralinflationrate(1.6%vs2.0%)(seeFigure6).Thedifferencesinsomeyearswereconsiderable,rangingfrom+2.3ppsin2010toawhopping-7.6ppslastyear–a
clearsignthattheindustryislagginginpassingtheinflationshocktoitscustomers.Withouttaking2022intoaccount,thetworatesraninsyncwitheachother(1.7%onaverage).Contrarytogeneralperception,however,theindustrydoesnotseemtobedriving
inflation.Ontheonehand,theintensityofcompetitionhaslimitedinsurers'abilitytoraiseprices;ontheotherhand,productivityincreases–notleastthankstothemanyopportunitiesofferedbydigitalization–haveprobablyreducedthecostpressureontheindustry.
Atthecountrylevel,nouniformpatternemerges.UnlikeinItalyandGermany,whereinsuranceinflationwas(slightly)belowthe
overallconsumerpriceindex,namely-0.1ppandeven1pp,respectively,itwashigherinSpain52(+0.6pp)andFrance(+0.2pp).Over
theperiodconsidered,theannualinsuranceinflationratesadduptoaround38%inItaly,agood40%inFranceandmorethan59%inSpain.Germany,witharound19%,pushestheregionalaveragedowntonearly34%.
Duetothebelow-averagedevelopmentintheinsurancemarket,averageinsuranceinflationinItalywasevenalmost13ppshigherthanpremiumgrowthitself.Inotherwords,theItalianretailp&cmarkethasshrunkoverthelasttwodecadesinrealterms.The
Spanishinsurancemarket,ontheotherhand,recordedabove-averagegrowthrates,buthereitwasthenoticeablyhigherinflationthatledtonearlytwo-thirdsofthemarketgrowthbeingattributabletopriceincreasesalone.InFrance,whichhadbyfarthehighestmarketgrowthinacountrycomparison,37%ofthepremiumincreasewasfedbypriceincreases.AlthoughtheinsurancemarketinGermanygrewatabelow-averagerateintheregionalcomparison,theinflationrate,whichwasalsobelowaverage,meantthat
"only"35%ofthemarketgrowthwasdrivenbyinflation.ThatmeansthattherealgrowthoftheGermanmarket(+35.6%)wasevenhigher–albeitonlymarginally–thanthatofSpain(+35.2%)andtheEurozoneaverage(+35.0%)sincetheendof2001(seeFigure7).FortheEurozone,thismeansthatnearlyhalfofthe(nominal)premiumgrowthoverthepasttwodecadeswasdrivenbyinsuranceinflationalone:justunderEUR36bnoftheadditionalpremiumswrittenfrom2002to2022wereduetovolumegrowthandalmost
EUR35bntopricegrowth.
4Asweconsiderthenon-lifeinsurancemarketwithouthealthinsuranceproductsinthisanalysis,wehaveadjustedthereportedinflationrateaccord-ingly.
5ForSpain,thereisnodataavailableoninsuranceinflationconnectedwiththedwellingintheyear2022;accordingtoEurostat,countriesarenot
obligedtocompileHICPindicesforitemswhichhaveaverylowweight(lessthan1per1000),inwhichcasethesecorrespondingsub-itemsaretrans-mittedwithaweightofzero.
Figure6:Notinthedrivingseat
HICPinsurance(exhealth)vsHICPallitems,annualrateofchange,2002-2022
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
delta(lhs)HICPinsurance(exhealth)(rhs)HICPallitems(rhs)
200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022
Figure7:Notallisreal
NominalP&Cmarket(privatecustomerbusiness)growthvsinsuranceinflation,2002-2022
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
NominalincreaseinGWPInsuranceinflation(exhealthinsurance),summedup
FranceGermanyItalySpainEuroarea
Sources:Eurostat,AllianzResearchSources:Eurostat,AllianzResearch
AllianzResearch
10
Afterthe
inflationshock
Digestinghigherrates:Theeconomicenvironment
Eveniftherathergloomyforecastsseemtospeaka
differentlanguage,thethemeoftheeconomicoutlook
forthenextfewyearsisnormalization.Aftertheextremeswingsofrecentyears,causedbytheCovid-19pandemicandthewarinUkraine,theglobaleconomyshouldreturntocalmerwaters.Calmistobeunderstoodquiteli
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