洛伊国际政策研究所-2021年气候调查（英文）-2021.5-14正式版

LOWYINSTITUTE

CLIMATE

POLL2021

NATASHAKASSAM

HANNAHLESER

LOWYINSTITUTECLIMATEPOLL2021

KEYFINDINGS

Severalimportantresultsinthisnewpollshowoverallcon-cernaboutclimatechangehasincreasedin2021.SixintenAustralians(60%)say‘globalwarmingisaseriousandpress-ingproblem.Weshouldbegintakingstepsnow,evenifthisinvolvessignificantcosts,’a4-pointrisefrom2020.Inasig-nificant8-pointincreasesince2019,amajorityofAustralians(55%)nowsaythegovernment’smainpriorityforenergypolicyshouldbe‘reducingcarbonemissions’.

AlmostallAustralians(91%)saytheywouldsupportthefed-eralgovernment‘providingsubsidiesforthedevelopmentofrenewableenergytechnology’—afindingwhichalignswithpreviousLowyInstitutepollsshowingstrongsupportforrenewableenergy.

EightintenAustralians(78%)support‘settinganet-zeroemis-sionstargetfor2050’.Thesamenumber(77%)supportthegovernmentsubsidisingelectricvehiclepurchases.

Three-quartersofAustralians(74%)say‘thebenefitsoftakingfurtheractiononclimatechangewilloutweighthecosts’.Thealternateviewisheldby24%,whosay‘thecostsoftakingfur-theractiononclimatechangewilloutweighthebenefits’.

SevenyearsafterAustralia’scarbonpricewasrepealed,asize-ablemajorityofAustralians(64%)supportintroducinganemis-sionstradingschemeoracarbontax.

ManyAustraliansappeartobemovingawayfromcoal.SixintenAustralians(63%)supportabanonnewcoalminesopeninginAustralia.Thesamenumber(63%)saytheysupportreduc-ingAustraliancoalexportstoothercountries.OnlythreeintenAustralians(30%)saytheysupportthefederalgovernmentprovidingsubsidiesforbuildingnewcoal-firedpowerplants.

Australianssaymanylargecountriesaredoingtoolittletocombatclimatechange.EightintensayChina(82%)andIndia(81%)aredoing‘toolittle’,whileseveninten(71%)saytheUnitedStatesisdoingtoolittle.Amajority(60%)alsosayAus-traliaisdoingtoolittle.AroundhalfsaytheUnitedKingdom(53%)andtheEuropeanUnion(49%)aredoingtoolittleintheireffortstocombatclimatechange.

IntheleaduptotheCOP26UNClimateChangeConferenceinlate2021,sevenintenAustralians(70%)sayAustraliashouldjoinothercountries,suchastheUnitedKingdomandtheUnitedStates,toincreaseitscommitmentstoaddressclimatechange.

ClimatePoll2021bytheLowyInstitutereportstheresultsofanationallyrepresentativeonlineandtelephonesurveyconductedbytheSocialResearchCentrebetween12and26April2021,withasamplesizeof3286Australianadults.Onasimplerandomsampleof3286responses,themarginoferrorisapproximately1.8%.The‘designeffect’forthissurveyisestimatedat1.62.

1

CLIMATEPOLL2021

Levelsofconcernaboutclimatechange

WhiletheCOVID-19pandemicappearedtotemperconcernsaboutclimatechangein2020,theissuehasrisentoprom-inenceagainin2021.ThemajorityofAustralians(60%)say‘globalwarmingisaseriousandpressingproblem…weshouldbegintakingstepsnow,evenifthisinvolvessignificantcosts’.Thisrepresentsareversalofthedipin2020duringtheearlydaysofthepandemic,butremainseightpointsbelowthehighwatermarkofconcernin2006.

AthirdofAustralians(30%)saytheproblemofglobalwarmingshouldbeaddressed,butitseffectswillbegradual,sowecandealwiththeproblemgraduallybytakingstepsthatarelowincost.Only9%ofAustralians—oneofthelowestresultsofthe

pastdecade—saythatuntilwearesurethatglobalwarmingisreallyaproblem,weshouldnottakeanystepsthatwouldhaveeconomiccosts.

Asinrecentyears,thereisasignificantgapbetweenyoungerandolderAustralians’concernsaboutglobalwarming.Despiteaslightnarrowingbetweenthegenerations,themarginisstillnoteworthy,withthree-quarters(76%)ofAustraliansaged18–29sayingglobalwarmingisaseriousandpressingprob-lem,comparedwith50%ofthoseover60.

Concernaboutglobalwarmingappearstobenarrowingslightlybetweentheurbanandruralpopulations,withjusta7-pointgapbetweenthe63%ofAustralianslivingincitiessay-ingthatglobalwarmingisaseriousandpressingproblem,andthe56%oftheregionalandremotepopulation.

FIGURE1

Attitudestoglobalwarming

Nowaboutglobalwarming.Thereisacontroversyoverwhatthecountriesoftheworld,including

Australia,shoulddoabouttheproblemofglobalwarming.I’mgoingtoreadyouthreestatements.

Pleasetellmewhichstatementcomesclosesttoyourownpointofview.

80%

68

60

60%

48

46

45

45

50

53

54

44

41

40%

39

40

40

36

40

38

38

36

37

32

19

18

16

20%

13

13

15

24

12

11

9

7

8

59

61

60

56

31

34

28

30

10 10 10 9

0%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Globalwarmingisaseriousand

Theproblemofglobalwarmingshouldbe

pressingproblem.Weshould

addressed,butitseffectswillbegradualso

begintakingstepsnowevenif

wecandealwiththeproblemgraduallyby

thisinvolvessignificantcosts

takingstepsthatarelowincost

ThisquestionwasaskedintheannualLowyInstitutePollinMarch

2021.Dashedlineindicateschangeinmode:seeMethodology,p.9.

Untilwearesurethatglobalwarmingisreallyaproblem,weshouldnottakeanystepsthatwouldhaveeconomiccosts

2

FIGURE2

Costsandbenefitsofclimatechangeaction

Whenthinkingaboutthepossiblebenefitsandpossiblecostsoffurtheractiononclimatechange,whichofthefollowingtwostatementsisclosertoyourownview?

Thecostsoftaking

Don’tknow

furtheractionon

climatechange

willoutweigh

thebenefits

24

74

Thebenefitsoftaking

furtheractionon

climatechangewill

outweighthecosts

FIGURE3

Energypolicypriorities

Nowthinkingaboutenergypolicy,whichoneofthefollowinggoalsdoyoupersonallythinkshouldbethemainpriorityfortheFederalGovernment?

2019 47 38 15

2021

55

32

12

0%

50%

100%

Reducingcarbonemissions

Reducinghouseholdbills

Reducingtheriskofpowerblackouts

LOWYINSTITUTECLIMATEPOLL2021

Australiangovernmentpoliciesonclimatechange

Whenconsideringthepotentialcostsandbenefitsofclimatechangepolicies,mostAustraliansseethebenefitsasout-weighingthecosts.Three-quartersofAustralians(74%)say‘thebenefitsoftakingfurtheractiononclimatechangewilloutweighthecosts’.Thealternateviewisheldby24%,whosay‘thecostsoftakingfurtheractiononclimatechangewilloutweighthebenefits’.

Supportforreducingcarbonemissionsasapriorityforthefederalgovernmenthasincreasedinthepasttwoyears.Whenaskedwhatthegovernment’smainpriorityshouldbeintermsofenergypolicy,themajorityofAustralians(55%)say‘reduc-ingcarbonemissions’shouldbethemainpriority.Thishasincreasedeightpointssince2019andisnowaviewheldbythemajority.Athird(32%)say‘reducinghouseholdbills’shouldbethegovernment’spriority,adecreaseofsixpointssince2019.Only12%saythegovernmentshouldprioritise‘reducingtheriskofpowerblackouts’.

Lookingatarangeofpossiblefederalgovernmentpolicies,almostallAustralians(91%)saytheywouldsupportthefed-eralgovernment‘providingsubsidiesforthedevelopmentofrenewableenergytechnology’.ThisalignswithLowyInsti-tutepollingin2018inwhich84%ofAustralianssaidthegov-ernmentshouldfocusonrenewablesratherthantraditionalenergysources.1

EightintenAustralians(78%)support‘settinganet-zeroemis-sionstargetfor2050’,suggestingtheyseekafirmercommit-mentfromPrimeMinisterScottMorrison,whohassaidthatAustralia’s“goalistoreachnetzeroemissionsassoonaspossi-ble,andpreferablyby2050”.2

SevenintenAustralians(77%)supportprovidingsubsidiesforthepurchaseofelectricvehicles.AsizeablemajorityofAustral-ians(64%)supportintroducinganemissionstradingschemeoracarbontax.Theseviewshaveshiftedsignificantlyinthepastfiveyears.In2016,inresponsetoadifferently-wordedques-tionintheLowyInstitutePoll,only40%saidtheywouldpreferthegovernmenttointroduceanemissionstradingschemeorpriceoncarbon.3

3

Australianviewsofcoalexportsandcoalminesalsoappeartohaveshiftedsignificantlyinrecentyears.SixintenAus-tralians(63%)supportabanonnewcoalminesopeninginAustralia.Thesameproportionofthepopulation(63%)saytheysupportreducingAustraliancoalexportstoothercoun-tries,inanapparentshiftfromfiveyearsagowhenamajority(66%)saidAustraliashouldcontinuetoexportcoal.4In2021,onlythreeintenAustralians(30%)saytheysupportthefederalgovernmentprovidingsubsidiesforbuildingnewcoal-firedpowerplants.

Onanumberofthesepolicies,thereisasignificantgapbetweensupportfromyoungerandolderAustralians.Forexample,72%ofAustraliansaged18–44yearsoldsupport

banningnewcoalmines,comparedto55%ofAustraliansagedover45.Similarly,71%ofrespondentsaged18–44supportimposingacarbontaxoremissionstradingscheme,comparedto57%ofAustraliansover45.

Thefederalgovernment’spromotionofa‘gas-firedrecovery’forAustralia’seconomy5appearstohavegeneralsupport,with58%infavourofAustraliaincreasingtheuseofgasforenergygeneration.

Australiansaresplitoverthequestionofnuclearpower,whichhasbeenprohibitedinAustraliasince1998.6Almosthalfthepopulation(47%)wouldsupportremovingtheexistingbanonnuclearpower,but51%areopposedtothatmeasure.

FIGURE4

Potentialfederalgovernmentpoliciesonclimate

Wouldyousupportoropposethefollowingfederalgovernmentpolicies?

Providingsubsidiesforthedevelopmentofrenewableenergytechnologies

91

8

Settinganet-zeroemissionstargetfor2050

78

20

Providingsubsidiesforthepurchaseofelectricvehicles

77

22

Introducinganemissionstradingschemeoracarbontax

64

33

3

ReducingAustraliancoalexportstoothercountries

63

33

3

BanningnewcoalminesfromopeninginAustralia

63

34

IncreasingtheuseofgasforAustralia’senergygeneration

58

38

3

Removingtheexistingbanonnuclearpower

47

51

Providingsubsidiesforbuildingnewcoal-firedpowerplants

30

67

3

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Support

Oppose

Don’tknow

4

FIGURE5

Climatechangeeffortsbycountry

Hereisalistofcountriesandeconomies.Inyouropinion,isthatcountryoreconomydoingtoomuch,toolittle,orabouttherightamounttocombatclimatechange?

China

82

11

3

4

India

81

12

4

UnitedStates

71

21

5

3

Australia

60

31

7

UnitedKingdom

53

38

5

4

EuropeanUnion

49

40

6

4

0%

50%

100%

Toolittle

Toomuch

Abouttherightamount

Don’tknow

Internationalclimatechangepolicies

InadvanceoftheUnitedNationsClimateChangeConferencetobehostedbytheUnitedKingdominGlasgowinlate2021,themajorityofAustralianswouldliketoseelargecountriesdomoretocombatclimatechange.EightintenAustralianssaythatChina(82%)andIndia(81%)aredoing‘toolittle’intheireffortstocombatclimatechange.

WhenitcomestotheUnitedStates’efforts,alargemajority(71%)saytheUnitedStatesisdoingtoolittletocombatclimatechange.OneinfiveAustralians(21%)saytheUnitedStatesisdoingabouttherightamounttocombatclimatechange.

LOWYINSTITUTECLIMATEPOLL2021

SixintenAustralians(60%)sayAustraliaisdoingtoolittleinitseffortstocombatclimatechange,whileonethird(31%)sayAustraliaisdoingabouttherightamount.

AustraliansappeartobethemostsatisfiedwiththeeffortsoftheUnitedKingdomandtheEuropeanUnion.However,aslimmajority(53%)stillsaytheUnitedKingdomisdoingtoolittle.Halfthepopulation(49%)saytheEuropeanUnionisdoingtoolittle,whilefourintenAustralians(40%)saytheEuropeanUnionisdoingabouttherightamount.

MostAustralianswantAustraliatoincreaseitsambitionsonclimatechangepolicy.SevenintenAustralians(70%)sayAus-traliashouldjoinothercountries,suchastheUnitedKingdomandtheUnitedStates,toincreaseitscommitmentstoaddressclimatechange.Lessthanathird(29%)sayAustraliashouldcontinuewithitscurrentpolicies.

FIGURE6

Australia’sapproachtointernationalclimatechangenegotiations

Intheleaduptothe2021UnitedNationsclimatechangeconferenceinGlasgow,whichoneofthefollowingtwostatementsmostcloselyrepresentsyourownviewoftheapproachtheAustraliangovernmentshouldtakeininternationalclimatechangenegotiations?

Australiashouldcontinue

Don’tknow

withitscurrentpolicies

toaddressclimatechange

29

70

Australiashouldjoin

othercountries,such

astheUnitedKingdom

andtheUnitedStates,to

increaseitscommitments

toaddressclimatechange

5

TABLESOFRESULTS

Pleasenotethattotalsmaynotaddto100%duetorounding.

TABLE1

Attitudestoglobalwarming

Nowaboutglobalwarming.Thereisacontroversyoverwhatthecountriesoftheworld,includingAustralia,shoulddoabouttheproblemofglobalwarming.Pleaseindicatewhichofthefollowingthreestatementscomesclosesttoyourownpointofview.

Globalwarmingisaseriousandpressingproblem.Weshouldbegintakingstepsnowevenifthisinvolvessignificantcosts

2006200820092010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201920202021

68%

60%

48%

46%

41%

36%

40%

45%

50%

53%

54%

59%

61%

56%

60%

Theproblemofglobal

warmingshouldbeaddressed,

butitseffectswillbegradual,

24%

32%

39%

40%

40%

45%

44%

38%

38%

36%

37%

31%

28%

34%

30%

sowecandealwiththe

problemgraduallybytaking

stepsthatarelowincost

Untilwearesurethatglobal

warmingisreallyaproblem,we

7%

8%

13%

13%

19%

18%

16%

15%

12%

11%

9%

10%

10%

10%

9%

shouldnottakeanystepsthat

wouldhaveeconomiccosts

Don’tknow/refused

1%

0%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

2%

0%

0%

0%

1%

1%

0%

0%

TABLE2

Costsandbenefitsofclimatechangeaction

Whenthinkingaboutthepossiblebenefitsandpossiblecostsoffurtheractiononclimatechange,whichofthefollowingtwostatementsisclosertoyourownview?

2021

Thebenefitsoftakingfurtheractiononclimatechangewilloutweighthecosts

74%

Thecostsoftakingfurtheractiononclimatechangewilloutweighthebenefits

24%

Don’tknow

2%

6

LOWYINSTITUTECLIMATEPOLL2021

TABLE3

Energypolicypriorities

Nowthinkingaboutenergypolicy,whichoneofthefollowinggoalsdoyoupersonallythinkshouldbethemainpriorityforthefederalgovernment?

2019

2021

Reducingcarbonemissions

47%

55%

Reducinghouseholdbills

38%

32%

Reducingtheriskofpowerblackouts

15%

12%

Don’tknow

1%

1%

TABLE4

Potentialfederalgovernmentpolicies

Wouldyousupportoropposethefollowingfederalgovernmentpolices?

Support

Oppose

Don’tknow

Providingsubsidiesforthedevelopment

91%

8%

1%

ofrenewableenergytechnologies

Settinganet-zeroemissionstargetfor2050

78%

20%

2%

Providingsubsidiesforthepurchaseofelectricvehicles

77%

22%

2%

Introducinganemissionstradingschemeoracarbontax

64%

33%

3%

ReducingAustraliancoalexportstoothercountries

63%

33%

3%

BanningnewcoalminesfromopeninginAustralia

63%

34%

2%

IncreasingtheuseofgasforAustralia’senergygeneration

58%

38%

3%

Removingtheexistingbanonnuclearpower

47%

51%

2%

Providingsubsidiesforbuildingnewcoal-firedpowerplants

30%

67%

3%

7

Tablesofresults

TABLE5

Internationaleffortsonclimatechange

Hereisalistofcountriesandeconomies.Inyouropinion,isthatcountryoreconomydoingtoomuch,toolittle,orabouttherightamounttocombatclimatechange?

Toolittle

Abouttheright

Toomuch

Don’tknow

amount

China

82%

11%

3%

4%

India

81%

12%

2%

4%

UnitedStates

71%

21%

5%

3%

Australia

60%

31%

7%

2%

UnitedKingdom

53%

38%

5%

4%

EuropeanUnion

49%

40%

6%

4%

TABLE6

ApproachtoUNclimatenegotiations

Intheleaduptothe2021UnitedNationsClimateChangeConferenceinGlasgow,whichoneofthefollowingtwostatementsmostcloselyrepresentsyourownviewoftheapproachtheAustraliangovernmentshouldtakeininternationalclimatechangenegotiations?

2021

Australiashouldjoinothercountries,suchastheUnitedKingdomandtheUnited

70%

States,toincreaseitscommitmentstoaddressclimatechange

Australiashouldcontinuewithitscurrentpoliciestoaddressclimatechange

29%

Don’tknow

1%

8

LOWYINSTITUTECLIMATEPOLL2021

METHODOLOGY NOTES

ClimatePoll2021bytheLowyInstitutereportstheresultsofanationallyrepresentativeonlineandtelephonesurveycon-ductedbytheSocialResearchCentre(SRC)between12and26April2021,withasamplesizeof3286Australianadults.Theorderofquestionsinthesurveywasdifferentfromtheorderpresentedinthisreport.

ThesurveywasconductedbytheSRC,usingtheLifeinAus-tralia™panel—currentlytheonlyprobability-basedonlinepanelinAustralia.Membersofthepanelwererandomlyrecruitedviatheirlandlineormobile(ratherthanbeingself-se-lectedvolunteers)andagreedtoprovidetheircontactdetailstotakepartinsurveysonaregularbasis.SRCusesamixed-modeapproachforthepanel,includingonlinesurveys(95%ofrespondents)andcomputer-assistedtelephoneinterviewing(5%ofrespondents)toprovidecoverageoftheofflinepopula-tion(householdswithoutinternetaccess).

Onasimplerandomsampleof3286responses,themarginoferrorisapproximately1.8%.Whereacomplexsampleisused,the‘designeffect’measurestheadditionalvarianceincom-parisonwithasimplerandomsample.Thedesigneffectforthissurveyisestimatedat1.62.Acompletionrateof82.1%wasachieved.UnlikeothercommercialonlinepanelsinAustralia,theprobabilitybasisoftheLifeinAustralia™samplingmethodmeansresultsaregeneralisabletothenationalpopulationandsamplingerrorsandconfidenceintervalscanbecalculated.

ThequestioninF