化工行业：云南限电影响持续农化景气度继续上行-20210530-中金公司-28正式版

⚫1、本周观点：云南限电影响持续，农化景气度继续上行.................................................................................................4云南限电影响或延续至

7月末，工业硅供给紧缺或超预期

.....................................................................................4草甘膦持续涨价，本轮景气度或超

2013-2014年景气周期.....................................................................................5钾肥行业景气有望继续维持

.................................................................................................................................................52、重点公司跟踪...............................................................................................................................................................................8万华化学

......................................................................................................................................................................................8华鲁恒升

......................................................................................................................................................................................8扬农化工

......................................................................................................................................................................................8新和成...........................................................................................................................................................................................9合盛硅业

......................................................................................................................................................................................9玲珑轮胎

....................................................................................................................................................................................103、板块估值及个股行情

...............................................................................................................................................................114、化工产品价格回顾....................................................................................................................................................................14化工子板块动态

......................................................................................................................................................................15图表

1：工业硅价格

.........................................................................................................................................................................4图表

2：有机硅价格价差

................................................................................................................................................................4图表

3：草甘膦价格

.........................................................................................................................................................................5图表

4：草甘膦库存

.........................................................................................................................................................................5图表

5：海外氯化钾价格

................................................................................................................................................................6图表

6：国内氯化钾价格

................................................................................................................................................................6图表

7:可比公司估值表..................................................................................................................................................................7图表

8：上周各行业相对沪深

300涨跌幅..............................................................................................................................11图表

9：石油化工和基础化工行业相对涨跌幅.....................................................................................................................11图表

10：基础化工子行业涨跌幅..............................................................................................................................................12图表

11:上周涨幅前十个股（截至

5

月

28

日）.................................................................................................................12图表

12:上周跌幅前十个股（截至

5

月

28

日）.................................................................................................................12图表

13：基础化工板块动态市盈率变化（TTM，剔除负值）.......................................................................................13图表

14：基础化工板块相对沪深

300估值变化..................................................................................................................13图表

15:化工产品涨跌幅排名表

...............................................................................................................................................14图表

16:月度、季度、年度化工品涨/跌居前情况

.............................................................................................................14图表

17:聚氨酯价格走势.............................................................................................................................................................15图表

18:钛白粉价格走势.............................................................................................................................................................16图表

19:锂电化学品价格走势....................................................................................................................................................17图表

20:农药价格走势..................................................................................................................................................................18图表

21:饲料添加剂价格走势....................................................................................................................................................19图表

22:化纤价格走势..................................................................................................................................................................20图表

23:氟硅化工价格走势

........................................................................................................................................................20图表

24:煤化工价格走势.............................................................................................................................................................21图表

25：塑料价格走势

................................................................................................................................................................22图表

26：化肥价格走势

................................................................................................................................................................23图表

27:氯碱价格走势..................................................................................................................................................................23图表

28：橡胶价格走势

................................................................................................................................................................24图表

29：其他化工品价格走势...................................................................................................................................................24pOmPoQwPoPnNqPsRtMtPqR7NbP9PsQoOmOoPjMnNqNlOtQoO7NmOnOuOtPxPuOoNrN18,00015,00012,0009,0006,0003,000-40,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000-30,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,0000(元/吨)(元/吨)(元/吨)DMC价差（右轴）DMC金属硅553金属硅4417000060000500004000030000200001000002021年2020年2019年*农用化工合成纤维及树脂化学原料化学制品528股价（元/股）11.3211.7311.877.45近一周绝对

近一周相对沪深300涨

近一个月绝

近一个月相对沪深30020年至今相对沪深30021年至今相对沪深300代码公司涨幅61.0%30.6%29.3%22.7%22.4%21.9%18.0%17.0%16.7%16.6%幅(ppt)57.3826.9825.6619.0918.7618.2614.3613.3513.0812.99对涨幅77.99%29.61%40.47%11.19%29.27%17.79%-18.34%0.91%涨幅(ppt)74.0425.6736.537.25涨幅(ppt)65.5522.6018.740.58涨幅(ppt)61.65002386.SZ000635.SZ600328.SH300221.SZ600844.SH002341.SZ600078.SH300243.SZ002591.SZ000818.SZ天原股份英力特21.07中盐化工银禧科技丹化科技新纶科技*ST澄星瑞丰高材恒大高新航锦科技48.07-50.64-1.255.3025.3313.85-22.28-3.04-22.82-62.29-84.0647.03-55.98-7.813.84-20.49-70.14-39.99-9.002.3613.366.7718.77%11.60%14.837.6624.34-13.93528股价（元/股）0.20近一周绝对

近一周相对沪深300涨

近一个月绝

近一个月相对沪深300

20年至今相对沪深300

21年至今相对沪深300代码公司涨幅-23.1%-16.1%-8.5%-8.4%-7.0%-6.1%-4.7%-4.5%-4.5%-4.0%幅(p

p

t)-26.72-19.79-12.14-12.09-10.64-9.70对涨幅-83.61%2.42%涨幅(p

p

t)-88.14-2.11涨幅(p

p

t)-124.21-21.05-77.26-99.37219.7613.63涨幅(p

p

t)-124.21-16.38-20.52-38.1652.52002450.SZ002455.SZ002470.SZ002411.SZ000155.SZ000420.SZ300192.SZ600803.SH002324.SZ000953.SZ康得退百川股份*ST金正延安必康川能动力吉林化纤科德教育新奥股份普利特6.611.40-9.09%-1.04%25.96%11.91%-14.72%0.18%-13.62-5.574.7715.143.1021.437.3834.1311.2417.1413.295.22-8.31-19.25-4.35-49.7234.46-55.11-3.77-8.15-8.11-8.25%4.61%-12.780.0861.84-35.44-7.36河化股份-7.69-9.61基础化工板块估值均值72625242322212周度涨幅前十单位最新价格周涨跌幅月涨跌幅季涨跌幅年涨幅2021年均价

2020年均价2019年均价2018年均价2017年均价2016年均价2015年均价2014年均价

2013年均价黄磷尿素（波罗的海)纯吡啶元/吨美元/吨元/吨23,00037026.4%13.8%12.8%10.2%7.7%32.2%15.3%12.8%-12.8%12.2%26.7%-10.8%7.8%34.5%8.8%38.6%94.7%35.4%136.8%75.0%249.7%46.0%304.2%66.7%73.8%17,07631415,62422016,51723914,94624815,13521612,38919313,37926814,74431115,65632722,0001,2482,800285,00043815.8%-21.6%13.4%42.5%-33.4%7.8%19,1551,4382,482189,16754417,05082519,85137422,0874925,0295616,64632024,01063233,85875633,519622液氯元/吨甲醇元/吨1,87582,9713932,236102,0294383,098125,9525352,771237,8854992,036395,9464042,1382,6572,954六氟磷酸锂丁烷(地中海）丁二烯（CFR）丁二烯元/吨7.5%美元/吨美元/吨元/吨6.8%4538888018639706.6%8966691,0499,5481,7491,39611,0441,7531,1409,2471,1541,2849,4581,4881,46910,8101,6877,5002,2605.6%8.7%-11.8%15.9%7,2292,0466,2811,51912,3381,6077,1001,375硝酸元/吨5.1%0.4%周度跌幅前十单位最新价格周涨跌幅月涨跌幅季涨跌幅年涨幅2021年均价

2020年均价2019年均价2018年均价2017年均价2016年均价2015年均价2014年均价

2013年均价BDO维生素D3顺酐元/吨元/吨元/吨元/吨元/吨元/吨元/吨元/吨元/吨元/吨20,500115,00010,10022,650853-18.0%-13.2%-12.2%-11.4%-10.0%-9.5%-29.3%-17.9%-9.8%33.1%-17.9%-15.1%-5.6%109.2%-58.2%66.9%127.6%67.5%41.8%76.3%82.8%112.1%34.9%21,810131,4299,8589,749174,1357,0089,551230,5776,70811,848412,4048,65811,141269,2699,2358,22396,7646,5898,6224758,90096,3086,5548,73541311,654122,86510,38613,28652314,16384,78811,63613,132589双酚A-16.1%6.2%22,94878011,52557610,59759213,61765110,697644动力煤维生素C环氧丙烷聚醚多元醇苯胺47.6%-9.5%47,50016,40016,4509,990-9.5%50,73818,49518,52410,4858,12128,97112,25112,5995,89125,14410,12210,6136,59343,35612,07812,6449,81365,67310,92211,4199,78228,8589,1929,6826,6185,75927,38510,57827,53813,17724,00012,490-9.4%-12.8%-11.3%-8.3%-13.2%-15.4%-12.0%1.8%-9.4%-9.1%6,4306,33010,2239,71911,5288,665丁酮8,400-8.7%-6.1%7,0197,6958,1838,46850,00040,00030,00020,00010,0000(元/吨)60,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000021,00016,00011,0006,000(元/吨)(元/吨)1,000纯MDI聚合MDITDIBDO环氧丙烷DMF40,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,00026,00021,00019,00017,00015,00013,00011,0009,000(元/吨)(元/吨)(元/吨)21,00016,00011,0006,0007,0001,0005,000鞋底原液TPU浆料（干法）聚醚多元醇软泡聚醚硬泡聚醚2,6002,4002,2002,0001,8001,6001,4001,2001,00012010080604020031,00026,00021,00016,00011,0006,000(元/吨)(元/吨)钛白粉（金红石型）氯化法钛白粉钛白粉（钛锐型）钛精矿海绵钛200,000160,000120,00080,00040,0000301,000251,000201,000151,000101,00051,000876543210(元/平方米)(元/吨)(元/吨)1,000NCM523动力型三元材料磷酸铁锂正极材料电池级碳酸锂锂电池隔膜49,00048,50048,00047,50047,00046,50046,00045,50045,00044,500451,000401,000351,000301,000251,000201,000151,000101,00051,00026,00021,00016,00011,0006,000(元/吨)(元/吨)(元/吨)1,0001,000DMC溶剂DEC溶剂EC溶剂人造石墨负极材料锂电池电解液六氟磷酸锂51,00041,00031,00021,00011,0001,000250,000120,000110,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,0000(元/吨)(元/吨)(元/吨)200,000150,000100,00050,0000100,00090,00080,00070,00060,000草甘膦草铵膦麦草畏百草枯400,000350,000300,000250,000200,000150,000100,00050,0000300,000250,000200,000150,000100,00050,000060,00055,00050,00045,00040,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,000250,000230,000210,000190,000170,000150,000130,000110,00090,000(元/吨)(元/吨)(元/吨)70,00050,000多菌灵百菌清吡唑醚菌酯功夫菊酯吡虫啉25,00020,00015,00010,0005,000014,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,000060,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,0000(元/吨)(元/吨)(元/吨)棉花棉浆pxPTAMEG粘胶短纤粘胶长丝23