Bloomberg｜美国利率策略的年中展望

02美债前景05计分卡与收益率预测08赤字与财政支出2货币增⻓停滞通胀或将在2024年放缓Source:BloombergIntelligence3Source:BloombergIntelligenceSource:BloombergIntelligence4Source:BloombergIntelligence5收益率曲线的倒挂情形或持续⾄2023年年底，然⽽⻛险/回报⽔平对曲线进⼀步趋平恐怕没有帮Source:BloombergIntelligence6Source:BloombergIntelligence2023年年底2年期美债收益率预测为3.09%虽然距离未来还很遥远，但如果美联储最终在2026年年初开始加息25个基点，市场或将开始在Source:BloombergIntelligence7过去三个⽉，市场对政策利率路径的预期出现波动，这是因为在3⽉中旬的银⾏业震荡期间，关于⼤范围贷款紧缩的担忧取代了对持续加息的需求。然⽽，鉴于劳动⼒市场继续保持强劲，10年期美债收益率⽐我们模型的预测⽔平低两个标准差以上。市场对货币政策路径的预期是造成Source:BloombergIntelligenceSource:BloombergIntelligence82022财年美国联邦支出明细Source:USTreasuryDept,BloombergIntelligenceSource:BloombergIntelligence9在新冠疫情和拜登政府实施财政刺激计划之后，美国债务占GDP的⽐重上升了约20%，尽管过Source:BloombergIntelligenceSource:BloombergIntelligenceSource:BloombergIntelligenceSource:BloombergIntelligence10年期盈亏平衡通胀率的波动区间为2.16%-2.29%。Source:BloombergIntelligence彭博⾏业研究（BloombergIntelligence,BI）⾏业和市场的交互式数据和投资研究。我们的团队拥有350多名研究专家，帮助客户在快拥有来⾃彭博的实时透明数据和500家第三⽅数据的支持，客户可以借助我们的这些数据来完善及支持他们的构想。彭博⾏业研究仅可通过彭博终端或彭博专业服务应⽤获取。如需了解更多信息，请联系彭博客户代表或+861066497500+85229776000+862161043000+442073307500+81345658900/intelligenceThedataincludedinthesematerialsareforillustrativepurposesonly.TheBLOOMBERGTERMINALserviceandBloombergdataproducts(the“Services”)areownedanddistributedbyBloombergFinanceL.P.(“BFLP”)except(i)inArgentina,AustraliaandcertainjurisdictionsinthePacificislands,Bermuda,China,India,Japan,KoreaandNewZealand,whereBloombergL.P.anditssubsidiaries(“BLP”)distributetheseproducts,and(ii)inSingaporeandthejurisdictionsservicedbyBloomberg’sSingaporeoffice,whereasubsidiaryofBFLPdistributestheseproducts.BLPprovidesBFLPanditssubsidiarieswithglobalmarketingandoperationalsupportandservice.Certainfeatures,functions,productsandservicesareavailableonlytosophisticatedinvestorsandonlywherepermitted.BFLP,BLPandtheiraffiliatesdonotguaranteetheaccuracyofpricesorotherinformationintheServices.NothingintheServicesshallconstituteorbeconstruedasanofferingoffinancialinstrumentsbyBFLP,BLPortheiraaffiliates,orasinvestmentadviceorrecommendationsbyBFLP,BLPortheiraffiliatesofaninvestmentstrategyorwhetherornotto“buy”,“sell”or“hold”aninvestment.InformationavailableviatheServicesshouldnotbeconsideredasinformationsufficientuponwhichtobaseaninvestmentdecision.ThefollowingaretrademarksandservicemarksofBFLP,aDelawarelimitedpartnership,oritssubsidiaries:BLOOMBERG,BLOOMBERGANYWHERE,BLOOMBERGMARKETS,BLOOMBERGNEWS,BLOOMBERGPROFESSIONAL,BLOOMBERGTERMINALandBLOOMBERG.COM.Absenceofanytrademarkorserv